2014/15 NBA Thread

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 01:16 PM

Yesterday: 0-0-1, 0x
Total: 194-310-10, +39.62x

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Nobody should be pounding either side in this game. It's a tough game to bet on.

Just a great game. Not too unhappy with the push as I got the best number available. I would've been slightly pissed if 1.5 was there at any time.

I still like Golden State a bit today but I just can't get myself to lay 10 points in this matchup. Passing.

**amrit** · 05-03-15, 02:30 PM

^^ Like GSW as well today.

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 02:35 PM

Man the Hawks are such total trash. Just didn't trust the Wizards enough

**freeeze** · 05-03-15, 02:47 PM

Even Budenholzer screwed up on that one. Why the hell were Antic and Bazemore playing in crunch time?

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 03:50 PM

Probably taking Rockets series. I can't pass up -135 with homecourt and what I think of both teams.

I'm not sure about game 1 though. On paper it seems like a game Houston should cover having more rest and the Chris Paul thing, but I'm not sure. Probably sitting out and just hoping Houston wins.

**amrit** · 05-03-15, 04:07 PM

What book has -135 Seto?

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 04:35 PM

Rockets series -135 (5dimes) (risking 6.75x to win 5x)

**KRIT** · 05-03-15, 04:40 PM

Can't believe you think that highly of Houston. If Paul is healthy I like Clipps in 6 or 7.

**t-wizzle** · 05-03-15, 04:53 PM

If you like Houston then yea you probably gotta take them now. Looks like they win Game 1 but I'm not sure yet.

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 05:19 PM

Should've taken GS. Gotta stop worrying about backdoors on these big spreads. If they happen they happen, they don't happen enough for it to matter in the long run.

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

Can't believe you think that highly of Houston. If Paul is healthy I like Clipps in 6 or 7.

Yeah I understand the skepticism about them but I think they're the better team here and they have homecourt. This will probably be another dogfight like the Spurs/Clippers series. Might take a prop on Houston to win in 7 games.

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 05:26 PM

It's gonna be very hard to lay off getting 7 points on Washington in game 2 but it's probably the game they lose badly this series. I'll be all over them at home for sure.

In the other series if Conley plays I'll be on Memphis for sure as planned. Otherwise I'll probably take them anyway but for less.

**amrit** · 05-03-15, 05:35 PM

Is Beverely out for the rest of the playoffs? Having him would be huge to check CP3. I like all the other personnel match-ups in favor of Houston, but the CP3 match-up is gonna be a problem.

**Seto** · 05-03-15, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by amrit

Is Beverely out for the rest of the playoffs? Having him would be huge to check CP3. I like all the other personnel match-ups in favor of Houston, but the CP3 match-up is gonna be a problem.

Yes he is.

They'll put Ariza on him a lot. They obviously can't have too much their 2 37-year olds on him.

It's not like Matt Barnes is a threat to do anything to take advantage of having a smaller guy on him.

**amrit** · 05-03-15, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Yes he is.

They'll put Ariza on him a lot. They obviously can't have too much their 2 37-year olds on him.

It's not like Matt Barnes is a threat to do anything to take advantage of having a smaller guy on him.

Yeah, similar to what SA did with Leonard I guess. Will be a good series. I like them in Game 1 for sure, not sure about series.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 10:41 AM

So tempted to put like 50 units on Wizards series but I'll never forget their epic capitulation against Indiana last year...

Plus which a better price will probably be available after game 2. This craziness of winning almost every game on the road has to stop at some point.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 11:17 AM

The Grizzlies are +2100 to beat the Warriors at 5dimes yet they are +1800 to win the West. WTF? Makes zero sense. I know most guys will say it doesn't matter either way cause they aren't beating the Warriors but it's fukking nonsensical. I guess it's due to the reduced juice factor that they don't have for futures but it's still weird.

If Conley comes back for game 3 even down 2-0 they have better than a 20/1 chance to win this series to me. I'm gonna have to roll the dice here.

Grizzlies series +2100 (5dimes) (risking 1x to win 21x)

**mlb** · 05-04-15, 11:22 AM

just bit on them Seto. i still am holding there 60/1 future which looks cooked with their recent form, but this series prices is only due to them being the Warriors - it seems outrageous. Vegas calling a god damn sweep

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by mlb

just bit on them Seto. i still am holding there 60/1 future which looks cooked with their recent form, but this series prices is only due to them being the Warriors - it seems outrageous. Vegas calling a god damn sweep

I cashed out that +2000 future to win it all and got 95% of my money back and now I have them +2100 to win just this one series. I'm pretty happy with how this all panned out to this point. Just need Conley to come back for game 3. If on top of that they can steal game 2 that would be icing on the cake. I think it'll be a fairly close game.

60/1 is not bad. I have Bulls/Grizz finals at 96/1. It's gonna take a lot but it's not dead yet. Obviously the most important thing of the entire playoffs for me is my 2 grand on the Bulls to win the East at +775/+785. I just need them to beat this stupid Cleveland team. If they do that and lose to the Wizards or Hawks I give up.

**mlb** · 05-04-15, 12:19 PM

Absolutely - this is it - I'm down in Chi and looking to somehow grab tickets but prices are insane everywhere.

best of luck - play on game 1?

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by mlb

Absolutely - this is it - I'm down in Chi and looking to somehow grab tickets but prices are insane everywhere.

best of luck - play on game 1?

Not playing either game tonight. Don't have much of an opinion tbh. Just hope the Bulls and Rockets get off to a good start.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 03:49 PM

Hope the Memphis line continues to rise. Maybe we can get 12 tomorrow.

**amrit** · 05-04-15, 03:50 PM

Like ATL and Memphis tomorrow? What is your read on the ATL game?

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by amrit

Like ATL and Memphis tomorrow? What is your read on the ATL game?

My read is that the Hawks are a terrible team in the context of the playoffs that I wouldn't dream of laying 6.5 points with in a playoff game unless they're playing the 2012/13 Bucks or something.

Theoretically I like the Wizards but I am troubled by their road success in the playoffs that seems like it's due to stop soon. I'll probably wait and hope they lose this game so I can take their series price at +160 or something and hammer them in games 3 and 4.

**No coincidences** · 05-04-15, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Seto

My read is that the Hawks are a terrible team in the context of the playoffs that I wouldn't dream of laying 6.5 points with in a playoff game unless they're playing the 2012/13 Bucks or something.

That sequence when they were down 4 or whatever late in the game yesterday was a microcosm of why you shouldn't expect them to advance past this series. They fired up like 14 straight jump shots and missed every one. Played way above their heads during the regular season, and now it's all about to come crashing down.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

That sequence when they were down 4 or whatever late in the game yesterday was a microcosm of why you shouldn't expect them to advance past this series. They fired up like 14 straight jump shots and missed every one. Played way above their heads during the regular season, and now it's all about to come crashing down.

You just don't win without stars in the playoffs. It's proven. I really don't understand people likening them to the Spurs. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan were easily top 3 players at their position in their prime, and when healthy can still be considered as top 5 guys at their position today which is crazy. The fact that they're willing to sacrifice and not put up gaudy numbers is cool but without their talent the Spurs would be nowhere.

Who on the Hawks is even top 10 at their position? Nobody.

They're slightly better than the post-Melo Denver Nuggets who had a similar no-star approach because they actually run offensive sets but they're the same type of team - and those teams never win in the playoffs.

That said, putting a big series bet on a schizo Wizards team is hard to do - but it definitely feels like the right thing to do. At least they have a decent veteran on their team this year.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 05:56 PM

Grizzlies+10.5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 5.25x to win 5x)
Grizzlies ml +540 (5dimes) (risking 1x to win 5.4x)

Apparently Conley might be in so not waiting for tomorrow's possible movement in the end. Shame I couldn't get 11.

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 08:52 PM

Nice start for Chicago tonight. 1 down 7 to go.

**t-wizzle** · 05-04-15, 08:53 PM

Hey seto, sorry if I missed this but are you on Bulls for the series?

**Seto** · 05-04-15, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Hey seto, sorry if I missed this but are you on Bulls for the series?

Have 2 grand on the Bulls to win the East at +775/+785. Bet it right before the playoffs. I don't think I posted it in here as an "official" play, I rarely do for futures. Perhaps slightly chasing after that Central Division future I lost on them but I felt really good about it.

**t-wizzle** · 05-04-15, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Have 2 grand on the Bulls to win the East at +775/+785. Bet it right before the playoffs. I don't think I posted it in here as an "official" play, I rarely do for futures. Perhaps slightly chasing after that Central Division future I lost on them but I felt really good about it.

Very nice. I actually think Game 2 could be a repeat of Game 1. You'd expect Cavs to bounce back and win one at home but I'm not so sure.

**freeeze** · 05-05-15, 07:08 AM

Conley now unlikely to play.

**mlb** · 05-05-15, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by freeeze

Conley now unlikely to play.

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

**Seto** · 05-05-15, 10:21 AM

Lol at Houston last night. Let's see if they can bounce back in game 2 unlike the Portland series last year.