love your teasers, good work
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1st play of the day:
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Thunder +10 and Thunder/Spurs over 201 (0.75 Units) - Although the Thunder got blown out in games 1 and 2 of this series in San Antonio by 17 and 35, I do not feel that we will see the same thing this evening, with Ibaka in the lineup this time around. I expect this game to be much closer, and the Thunder may even have a shot to steal one in the end. As for the over 201, this total has cleared in 3 of the 4 matchups so far this year in S.A., and although the normal rational of thinking is to lean under in games 5, 6, and 7, these two teams met in the Western Conference Finals just two short years ago, and they met in a similar game 5 that finished with a 108-103 Thunder win, clearing that number easily. For me, this equalizes the rational of the lean under in game 5's, and verifies value on the over 201.Comment -
Thunder 1st Half Over 50 (0.50 Units) - The Thunder have hit this total in 5 of the last 7 games in S.A., and I expect them to be able to continue to be able to score with Ibaka back in the lineup....They averaged 53.5 in the first half on the season, and 52.2 on the road.Comment -
Great call PattycakesComment -
Thunder +5 (0.75 Units) - In my opinion, this game has been the toughest game to handicap so far in the Conference Finals. Research shows that in the last 10 home games for the Spurs against OKC, the Spurs have won 7 of the 10 games, and covered this spread in 6 of the 10. In the 5 playoff games between these two teams in S.A. since 2011/2012 season, the Spurs have won 4 of the 5 outright, covering this spread in all of the 4 wins. With that being said, the one time the Thunder did cover this spread, was in the 2012 Western Conference Finals in San Antonio in Game 5, and the Thunder ended up winning outright, 108-103. I am not saying this is going to happen again, but the Thunder have the momentum right now, and have looked to be the better team the last two outings. Durant and Westbrook looked great last game, and it would not shock me for them to outright win this game. I understand why Vegas has to set this line where it is at for equal money on both sides, but realistically, I feel it should be closer to Spurs -2.5 or -3 (or Thunder +2.5 or 3) at best. That is why we are taking the Thunder.
Thunder ML @ +180 (0.40 Units) - As noted above, I feel the real line should be set at Thunder +3, which in ML terms, would come out to around +135 to +150.....This is why I see value at +180....BOL
Alternate Line: Thunder -2.5 @ +250 (0.25 Units) - If the Thunder can get this win, the free throw game could easily take this above 2.5....For 0.25 units, this is a +EV bet in my mind.
I may have one more bet before tip, otherwise, as every night, I will post all my plays into one thread, for organization....BOL tonightComment -
Thunder/Spurs 1st Half Over 103 (0.50 Units) - These teams have covered this 1st half number in four of the last five matchups in S.A., and I see this continuing tonight.Comment -
Spurs/Thunder Over 206.5 (0.50 Units)
Alternate Line : Spurs/Thunder Over 214.5 @ +195 (0.25 Units)Comment -
Thunder 1st Qtr. +1.5 (0.40 Units)
Thunder 1st Qtr. ML @ +145 (0.25 Units)Comment -
All plays tonight, for organization.
Thunder 1st Qtr. +1.5 (0.40 Units)
Thunder 1st Qtr. ML @ +145 (0.25 Units)
Thunder 1st Half Over 50 (0.50 Units)
Thunder/Spurs 1st Half Over 103 (0.50 Units)
Thunder +5 (0.75 Units)
Thunder ML @ +180 (0.40 Units)
Alternate Line: Thunder -2.5 @ +250 (0.25 Units)
Spurs/Thunder Over 206.5 (0.50 Units)
Alternate Line: Spurs/Thunder Over 214.5 @ +195 (0.25 Units)
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Thunder +10 and Thunder/Spurs over 201 (0.75 Units)
Risking 4.55 Units to win 5.31 Units.....BOL tonightComment -
Anything for second half Patty?Comment -
Ok coolComment -
May post a live play at some point, but no way to predict when that would be, or if it will actually happen....If I see a line I feel is mis-priced during a timeout/TV timeout, I will play and post it ASAP, otherwise, sticking with original playsComment -
Thread Update:
The first half couldn't have gone a whole lot better for us, going 3-0-1, but then disaster struck. I didn't feel good about the Thunder covering after halftime as they were down 10, which was a complete mis-read by me there, but did not see both Over's at 206.5 and 214.5 collapsing, after they had put up 120 points combined at the end of the 1st half. Either way, it is what it is, and need to have a better day today. Record for the day was 3-6-1 for a -1.59 Units. This brings the overall playoff record to 156-128-13 for a total of +19.56 Units.
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 42-24-4 for a +9.98 Units
Looking to bounce back this evening. BOLLast edited by Pattycakes0909; 05-30-14, 07:15 AM.Comment -
1st Play of the day:
2 Team, 4 Point Teaser - Heat -3.5 and Heat/Pacers Under 188 (0.75 Units) - I expect the Heat to take care of business tonight, and show up a lot stronger defensively. I could see them holding the Pacers to around 80-82 tonight, and winning by double digits again.Comment -
Heat -7.5 (0.75 Units) - Get this half point or full point while you can. I fully expect this total to be at -8.5 or higher by tip. Yes, I am aware the initial line opened at -6 briefly, and immediately got pushed to -7.....I was not able to get in the neccesary research to pull the trigger before now, but still feel comfortable with the -7.5....The fact is the Heat have covered this number in four of there last five home matchups with the Pacers, and after the mess of a game Lebron had last game, I expect him to get a few favorable calls in Miami tonight, and overall play better. History says that Lebrons' Teams are 0-4 in games following a game where Lebron did not score atleast 15 points, but I just cannot see the Pacers competing tonight, none the less winning outright. I think they spent all their energy fighting off a Lebron-less Heat last game, and their walls will come crumbling down tonight.Comment -
I gree I was one of the lucky ones to get it at 6 yesterday
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Pacers 1st Half +4.5 (0.50 Units) - The Pacers are a weird team in Miami....They have covered this halftime spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Miami, but then have gone on to lose the game entirely by double digits in 5 of those same 8 games....I expect the Pacers to dangle around for a few quarters, but Miami to step on the gas in the 2nd half and prove who really should be representing the East in the Finals.Comment -
Pacers 1st Qtr. +2.5 (0.40 Units) - See Below....
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML @ +160 (0.25 Units) - Pacers have won the 1st quarter outright in 6 of the last 7 trips to Miami, and in 9 of the last 12 matchups between them overall. I look for this streak to continue today.Comment -
Alternate Line: Heat -1.5 @ -300 (0.75 Units) - Pays better than -400 on the ML, and I consider this basically free $ tonight. Pacers are incapable of winning in Miami.
Alternate Line: Heat -14.5 @ +240 (0.25 Units) - The Heat are the only team capable of a blowout tonight, so I am sprinkling a small play hereComment -
What do you think of a Heat -4/Over 178 teaser Patty? Heat at -8 seems like a lot.Comment -
Heat -4 looks fine, but I am on the fence with the over 178....In games 5,6,7 between these two last year in the ECF, no game went higher than 175....I know they went to 183 in game 5 this year, but if the Heat get up by double digits in the fourth, I look for them to slow it down....I personally would stay away, but if you do play, BOLComment -
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Pacers Under 87.5 (0.50 Units)
Will be posting all plays into one post for organization, in about 10 minutes.Comment -
* Adding 0.25 Units to the Alternate Line: Heat -1.5 @-300 (had 0.75 units on it from earlier), for a full total of 1 Units *Comment -
All plays for the evening include:
Pacers 1st Qtr. +2.5 (0.40 Units)
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML @ +160 (0.25 Units)
Pacers 1st Half +4.5 (0.50 Units)
Alternate Line: Heat -1.5 @ -300 (1.0 Units)
Alternate Line: Heat -14.5 @ +240 (0.25 Units)
Heat -7.5 (0.75 Units)
2 Team, 4 Point Teaser - Heat -3.5 and Heat/Pacers Under 188 (0.75 Units)
Pacers Total Under 87.5 (0.50 Units)
Risking 4.40 Units to win 4.02 Units....BOL as alwaysComment -
Well not a good night tonight, going 3-5-0 for a -0.75 Units. This brings the overall playoff thread record to 159-133-13 for a total of +18.81 Units.
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-29-4 for a +9.23 Units
First play of tomorrow:
Spurs/Thunder Under 207 (1.0 Units) - These two teams are yet to clear this point total points in the last 7 matchups in Oklahoma City, and late playoff games tend to be more defensive minded.Comment -
Adding:
Thunder ML @ -165 (0.80 Units)Comment -
Thread Update: Yesterday was unsuccessful going 0-2-0 for a -1.80 Units....Sucks the game went into OT to crush our Under, but sometimes that is how things go....This concludes the 3rd round, and the overall playoff thread record now sits at 159-135-13 for a +17.01 Units.
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units
I will have a number of plays during the finals, and a decent amount game 1...From the research I have done, I expect there to be some +EV opportunities early on in this series....BOL to allComment -
First play of the Finals :
Spurs -3 (1.0 Units) - Spurs have covered this number in 3 of the last 4 matchups between these two teams in San Antonio, and actually won the three meetings all by double digits. Both teams will be ready, but I see San Antonio coming out and taking care of business in Game 1. In addition, the Spurs have had the best Home Court margin in the NBA this year, averaging winning by 10.2/ppg in that arena....While the Heat are a good team on the road, with a margin of +2.2 ppg, I don't see them coming in and winning game 1. We roll with S.A.Comment -
Spurs ML @ -170 (0.75 Units) - See description above for Spurs -3
Spurs 1st Qtr. -1.5 (0.40 Units) - In the last 4 seasons between these two teams when meeting in San Antonio, the Spurs have covered this spread in 5 of the 6 meetings. In addition, the Spurs were ranked 2nd in the NBA in 1st Qtr. Margin this year at +2.65 points, and even better at home with +3.52 points. I see them coming out and wanting to set the tone early at home. No doubt the fans will be ready too.
Spurs 1st Qtr. ML (0.30 Units) - See description above
Spurs 1st Half -2.5 (0.50) Units) - Same as the 1st Qtr. stats....In the last 4 seasons between these two teams when meeting in San Antonio, the Spurs have covered this spread in 5 of the 6 meetings, by an average of just over seven points at the half....In addition, the Spurs were the #1 team this year in 1st half margin at +5.2, and #1 at home, with +7.6....We are taking this
Spurs 1st Half ML (0.25 Units) - See description aboveComment -
Anu over/under picks?..thanks?Comment
