Leans for Thursday 3/5/09

sprasad03 · 03-05-09, 12:56 AM

ya i think NO will def win their game but Denver game could be the trickiest one. Portland has been playing well lately despite a comeback against indiana

schaapattack · 03-05-09, 01:01 AM

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping-64/schaapattacks-college-plays-best-bets-149119-p12.html#post1601944

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

cocknocker · 03-05-09, 01:21 AM

Did the Cowboys really release Terrell Owens with no number one wide receiver to replace him? That was an idiot move. They're giving the Arizona Cardinals all that they need should they decide to sign Owens. My guess is that some kind of way he ends upon a team within the same decision. Now THAT would be good. Romo is a....well whatever. T.O. shouldn't have been crying over his ass. He is the biggest choke quarterback in the NFL

peetlui · 03-05-09, 01:25 AM

Looking like UCLA is a

for manana CK

schaapattack · 03-05-09, 01:32 AM

In all due respect dogg your way off...if it wasnt for his mouth and IDIOTIC
behaviour they woulld have made it alot farther, trust me...dont hate the player...hate the azzhole

peetlui · 03-05-09, 01:33 AM

I don't think the Cards would consider Owens, they already have Fitz and Boldin. I just hope they don't lose Warner and put the team in the hands of a rookie. Be the biggest mistake they ever made.

pho3nix32 · 03-05-09, 01:34 AM

line: ptb@dn 198.5
pick: 198.5 under

Trends:

- The under for Portland is 8-2 in division games this season.
- The under for Portland is 11-9 as an underdog this season.
- The under for Denver is 18-12 against teams above 0.500 this season.
- The under for Denver is 14-6 against high scoring teams this season.

Keys to the under total:

1. Total average ppg given up by these 2 teams in the last 5 games is 190.5.
2. Both teams jocking for top spot in division.
3. Nate Mcmillan
4. Chauncey Billups

schaapattack · 03-05-09, 01:37 AM

They wouldnt make the mistake to sign that idiot believe me

THEGREAT30 · 03-05-09, 01:45 AM

Romo is overrated I wonder who they will find to blame this year? As for the picks. I will be on the home teams NBA tommorrow night. The Trail Blazers are not a good road team and Dallas lost last week on the road to OKC without Durant. I will be taking both teams up to -5 with no hesitation.

Wilforth · 03-05-09, 01:46 AM

Denver is tricky. NO is good. Dallas is garbage.

curious · 03-05-09, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Denver is tricky. NO is good. Dallas is garbage.

you must define garbage differently than I do. Dallas didn't look like garbage when they beat San Antone tonight.

schaapattack · 03-05-09, 01:50 AM

lol..So TO's 10 year track record of being a f'ing idiot is Romos fault? Come on now....Dont think black and white bro...if you know football you would know how dumb that sounds

W0lfy · 03-05-09, 02:26 AM

New Orleans ALWAYS plays Dallas well. They can never manage to even come close to stopping Chris Paul. Going to be interesting to see what the line is going to be.

Pensinger1 · 03-05-09, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by curious

you must define garbage differently than I do. Dallas didn't look like garbage when they beat San Antone tonight.

M. Cuban lecture FTW.

texhooper · 03-05-09, 02:37 AM

i like portland. denver is playing like gutless, yellow-bellied turds. portland steals games away from teams like that, and denver loves to give them up. taking my chances with portland coming off the b2b.

i like new orleans. seeing as how dallas pulled out a victory on wednesday, it means that any day now they're due for a loss, and what better spot than on the road the following day in new orleans, where dallas is 1-4 in their last 5 ats. n.o. is in a good position, and they're a lot healthier now than they have been in awhile (peja be damned).

D.J. · 03-05-09, 02:40 AM

Been following here for a while. GREAT SITE. I have a pretty good little system and figure why just take take take and not contribute!

I find two home favorites that I feel comfortable will get the win and parlay the moneylines in an attempt to pay back even money. Occasionally I will throw in a large favorite for a three team parlay to increase the payout. Not real complicated, but I have had pretty good success with it over the last two months. If there aren't two home favorites that I like, I'll pick a road team, usually one of the big three LA CLE or Bos.

Tonights play was:
OKC -190
POR -550

Thursday I love both home favorites to get the win, and will be parlaying NO and Denver.

playazzz2g · 03-05-09, 03:09 AM

The Cowboys are a joke and they will be as long as they have Romo

barackobama · 03-05-09, 03:11 AM

For us...

POR+5@DEN Line: 198.5

Picks: DEN, DEN UNDER

DEN, since POR is playing back to back, and DEN looks to bounce back from a detroit loss. Carmelo Anthony will also play since it was only a one game suspension.

DEN UNDER. still gonna tail phx... (This is the IIIrd time I used this reason

)

pho3nix32 · 03-05-09, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by barackobama

DEN UNDER. still gonna tail phx... (This is the IIIrd time I used this reason

)

so you are 1-1 tailing me then...sorry for the loss today.

barackobama · 03-05-09, 03:31 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

so you are 1-1 tailing me then...sorry for the loss today.

Not really 1-1. I've been tailing you for a long time, but it was the 3rd time I used it as a reason while posting my reply

. I thank you a lot since you've been giving me a lot more wins than losses (approximately 70%+++)

pho3nix32 · 03-05-09, 03:33 AM

the rest of the teams better beware...the suns just signed the stro show!!!

THEGREAT30 · 03-05-09, 04:53 AM

Stro will have fun playing with Nash?

THEGREAT30 · 03-05-09, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by schaapattack

lol..So TO's 10 year track record of being a f'ing idiot is Romos fault? Come on now....Dont think black and white bro...if you know football you would know how dumb that sounds

Who are u referring to?

wangichu · 03-05-09, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Did the Cowboys really release Terrell Owens with no number one wide receiver to replace him? That was an idiot move. They're giving the Arizona Cardinals all that they need should they decide to sign Owens. My guess is that some kind of way he ends upon a team within the same decision. Now THAT would be good. Romo is a....well whatever. T.O. shouldn't have been crying over his ass. He is the biggest choke quarterback in the NFL

IMHO there's no way in hell the cards even look at T.O. I really think that the move was an admission that he is such a clubhouse cancer that even jerry jones wants no piece. I really don't think anyone but a bottom feeder desparate for some talent will pursue T.O.

In theory the boys do have a number 1, but that is contingent on roy williams' ability to get his act together and work at being as good as he was in his early detroit years, but he is perfectly capable of being a number 1, dude's got talent.

not really gonna argue the romo thing though, makes me happy he's in my division because that's just one team that you can count on folding when you need them too. I just really hate the boys.

kevsworld · 03-05-09, 06:05 AM

Owens is cancer to a team, always has been always will...plus he gets so emotional about everything his own performance diminishes with his drama!

barackobama · 03-05-09, 07:11 AM

What do you guys think about POR+5@DEN. Do you think DEN will win? If not its a no play for me.

barackobama · 03-05-09, 07:49 AM

UPDATED PICKS: DENVER and PORTLAND DENVER UNDER:

Denver:
Portland is playing on a back to back. Last time they played in denver, denver by like 8. That time carmelo anthony was not playing. Now, carmelo anthony is coming off a one-game suspension and will be playing. On the other hand, Greg Oden will not be playing.
GOODLUCK

Portland Denver Under:
Twice already, the games have gone under the line. Now, with Portland playing on a b2b they are tired and will not be able to have the energy and firepower to score much.

chalupa · 03-05-09, 08:42 AM

owens

i am a huge cowboys fan. releasing owens was a great thing. every where he goes he causes trouble. we will be way better without him. he is a great receiver but not worth the trouble. romo still is young he only has 2 full seasons under his belt. aikman didn't win half of the games romo did through 2 seasons. so before everybody bashes romo remember that. we will have a better season without owens. i just wonder who the next sucker team is to take him.

peterpan19 · 03-05-09, 09:33 AM

leans for friday:
char -4
orl -10
cle/bos under 185
fo the other games I have to see the line first

cocknocker · 03-05-09, 10:10 AM

Conversation on the phone last night with BigMoneyMan. He was saying how he has seen teams lose in ways that he has never seen before this year. Teams hold big leads only to give them up late in games, and underdogs hang around all game long and then falter in the 4th quarter snatching defeat from the jaws of vctory. I told him that it's kind of like how we made an adjustment in baseball by only playing the first 5 innings of games instead of giving the bullpen a chance to blow a lead. I offered up that we should start banging out quarters much in the same manner as live betting on baseball innings with the good teams. Meaning that we plug them for the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter and 1st half, then if those lose, then bang the third quarter, with the idea that they won't lose 3 quarters in a row like the bad teams. I am going to continue the experiment with the site of 82 games. That site (given to me by JohnnyP) educates a prospective bettor as to the winning percentage of teams by the quarter. I think that some players and teams are mailing it in already. So it only makes sense to start wagering on the better teams that have a chance to get in the playoffs, teams jockeying for playoff position, and the usual playoff teams. I have learned that a profit can be made off of the Lakers even when their games are broken down to quarters as well (especially the 3rd quarter, where they are the best in the league).

So the adjustment that I am making is that i will play more quarters as we go down the stretch. Sometimes I will play a 3rd or 4th quarter before the game if the situation calls for it. This has been a very strange NBA season for sure since right before the All Star break through current.

repski · 03-05-09, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Conversation on the phone last night with BigMoneyMan. He was saying how he has seen teams lose in ways that he has never seen before this year. Teams hold big leads only to give them up late in games, and underdogs hang around all game long and then falter in the 4th quarter snatching defeat from the jaws of vctory. I told him that it's kind of like how we made an adjustment in baseball by only playing the first 5 innings of games instead of giving the bullpen a chance to blow a lead. I offered up that we should start banging out quarters much in the same manner as live betting on baseball innings with the good teams. Meaning that we plug them for the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter and 1st half, then if those lose, then bang the third quarter, with the idea that they won't lose 3 quarters in a row like the bad teams. I am going to continue the experiment with the site of 82 games. That site (given to me by JohnnyP) educates a prospective bettor as to the winning percentage of teams by the quarter. I think that some players and teams are mailing it in already. So it only makes sense to start wagering on the better teams that have a chance to get in the playoffs, teams jockeying for playoff position, and the usual playoff teams. I have learned that a profit can be made off of the Lakers even when their games are broken down to quarters as well (especially the 3rd quarter, where they are the best in the league).

So the adjustment that I am making is that i will play more quarters as we go down the stretch. Sometimes I will play a 3rd or 4th quarter before the game if the situation calls for it. This has been a very strange NBA season for sure since right before the All Star break through current.

CK,
could this just be mid-season swoon?? as we get closer to the playoffs and teams are fighting for position...things may get better??

repski · 03-05-09, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by schaapattack

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-baske...ml#post1601944

Great night Schapp...congrats!!

cocknocker · 03-05-09, 10:47 AM

I just love it when my projected line is spot on. No need for any change on my thinking. New Orleans-5.5 with a hook buy since the line came out at Hornets-6.

G's pks · 03-05-09, 10:52 AM

Posted this morning on Weds. thread...copy/pasted here

Interesting thread guys... But I notice a ton of the picks were 0-3 0-4.... Nice job to the guy that predicted the under in the Hous. game. But I think it was same person who said Kentucky a 17 pt. favorite would kill Georgia and they lost outright with a -2500 Ml!

Just wanted to drop in and say looks like to many people are just saying yeah that looks good and tagging along... I know it is easy to say that when most of you lost on Celtics, Spurs, Atl. Utah.

But I saw several agreeing on the under with some strong supporting stats on the Hous game... That a few of you would have thought that the Utah/Hous game might be a good game to take the points... Also buying points seemed to be one of the keys to now banned Blazehazes success...

Just wondering how many of you are buying points in any of your games... I loved the celtics yesterday knowing they have owned the Nets lately, but went ML, winning but it was still tight... When the line first came out for me it was 5 1/2, almost bought 3 points which would have given me much better odds but line quickly moved to 6, than 7.... So I went ML...

Any thoughts in here on promoting the buying of 2 to 3 points?
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