NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**green7** · 05-07-14, 04:23 AM

Interesting query

playoffs = 1 and p:FGP - po:FGP > 10 and p:HW and HF and series game = 2

playoffs = 1 and p:TPP<35 and AD and p:ADL and series game=2 and round>1 and op:M2>10

These favor the OVER in SA/Por game 2.

playoffs = 1 and p:TPP-po:TPP>10 and p:AW and AD and series game=2

**green7** · 05-07-14, 12:41 PM

series history

In rounds greater than round 1, if the road team wins game one, (Wiz, Clippers) they have won 11 series and lost 10 since 2002. The who wins website in the history of the NBA has the first game away winner winning the series only about 55% of the time.

When home teams win the first game, (Spurs, Heat) the historical percentage of that team winning its series is 67%.

**green7** · 05-07-14, 12:58 PM

playoffs = 1 and AD and series game=2 and p:ADW and po

oints<100

playoffs = 1 and AD and series game=2 and p:ADW and po

oints>100

**green7** · 05-08-14, 10:42 AM

pp:series game=1 and pp:ADW and p:ADL and HF and p:TPP<36 and series game=3 and po:TPP<36

Note the straight up margin of victory in the above query.

Since 2002, the team that won game 1 and lost game 2 both on the road, have won 6 out of the 10 series.

I am taking the Wizards to win the series....I got them at -108. It is my biggest bet of the playoffs. They have advantages at every position, a bench advantage and a coaching advantage. They have tested playoff veterans on the bench though their back court is young. Unless Paul George or Ray Hibbert take over for their team and dominate games the Pacers can not win the series and I am putting up a good amount of money with the expectation that they won't.

Roy Hibbert had a great game in game 2....perhaps it will continue, but I don't think so. Love the fact that the Wizards are a very good road team, that their point guard is much better than the Pacers, that they are more athletic, and they are better shooters.

Good fortune everyone.

**JAnthony** · 05-08-14, 02:30 PM

playoffs=1 and round=2 and 205<=total<=210 and H

**green7** · 05-08-14, 04:31 PM

JAnthony's query

If the series game is either game 1 or game 2......average score is 117.1-107.5 with an average total of 207

Home team dominates ATS as well.

Bombs away.

**JAnthony** · 05-09-14, 12:46 PM

playoffs=1 and round=2 and seed>o:seed and -5<=line<=-2 and season>=2010

**green7** · 05-09-14, 02:50 PM

playoffs=1 and seed>o:seed and p:AL and HF and round>1 and total<200 and series game=3

playoffs=1 and seed>o:seed and p:AL and HF and round>1 and total>200

Good fortune everyone.

**Cougs** · 05-12-14, 01:40 PM

Overreaction to previous game...

Similar to yesterday's pacers/wizards game where the total was brought down by a few points as compared to game 3 because of its low score, i think we are seeing an overreaction to the total in the SA/Port game tonight. One thing we can all agree upon is that Vegas knows what they are doing...they know that everyone is thinking that Portland can't play defense, the Spurs are invincible (well that's true, but that's a different story...) and the over is an easy hit today. Game 3 closed at 208...and Game 4 is at 210.5...and will probably keep going up.

To further investigate, i came up with this query. In english, we're looking at a game played at the same site as the previous game (hence, cannot be game 1) in the playoffs but with the total increased by 2 or more points. Even if you remove the parameter I included showing that the away team won, the data is still fairly compelling. I think I will wait for everyone to push the over number even higher and then pound the under.

Thoughts? BOL!

A and p:AW and total>p:total+2 and playoffs=1 and series game!=1

**green7** · 05-12-14, 07:07 PM

Nice find Cougs!

Loveit.....good fortune.

**b1slickguy** · 05-15-14, 08:04 PM

H and playoffs=1 and P:AL and total>=200 and op:margin >=-4 and season>=2009

3-10-1 with total>=210
Good luck.

**JMon** · 05-16-14, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

H and playoffs=1 and P:AL and total>=200 and op:margin >=-4 and season>=2009

3-10-1 with total>=210
Good luck.

nice hit slicker

**b1slickguy** · 05-16-14, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by JMon

nice hit slicker

Thanks, buddy.
Good luck.
.

**green7** · 05-17-14, 06:31 AM

round>2 and tA(points-o: points)>oA(points-o: points) and series game=1 and HF

Trend points to UNDER SA/OKC.

**green7** · 05-17-14, 06:48 AM

Going versus better pointspread performers game 1, round 3

round=3 and series game=1 and tS(ats margin, N=10)-oS(ats margin, N=10)>0 and H

6-7 (0.92, 46.2%)
2-10-1 (-4.19, 16.7%)	avg line: -5.1
7-6-0 (5.04, 53.8%)	avg total: 192.0

37.15	46.1	18.69	75.0	6.00	33.8	5.69	11.38	40.69	20.77	19.38	12.62	23.2	23.8	25.8	25.3	99.0
36.08	45.5	20.38	80.8	5.54	36.0	4.62	10.62	41.31	22.54	18.54	13.23	24.2	24.0	23.9	25.2	98.1

May 18, 2003		Sun	2002	Pistons	Nets	home	74-76	1&5	2.0	181.5	-2	0.0	-31.5	-15.8	-15.8	L	P	U	0
May 19, 2003		Mon	2002	Spurs	Mavericks	home	110-113	3&1	-7.0	198.5	-3	-10.0	24.5	7.2	17.2	L	L	O	0
May 22, 2005		Sun	2004	Suns	Spurs	home	114-121	1&2	-2.5	206.5	-7	-9.5	28.5	9.5	19.0	L	L	O	0
May 23, 2005		Mon	2004	Heat	Pistons	home	81-90	8&3	-4.0	181.5	-9	-13.0	-10.5	-11.8	1.2	L	L	U	0
May 24, 2006		Wed	2005	Mavericks	Suns	home	118-121	1&1	-6.0	221.0	-3	-9.0	18.0	4.5	13.5	L	L	O	0
May 21, 2007		Mon	2006	Pistons	Cavaliers	home	79-76	3&2	-6.0	176.5	3	-3.0	-21.5	-12.2	-9.2	W	L	U	0
May 21, 2008		Wed	2007	Lakers	Spurs	home	89-85	4&1	-7.0	196.0	4	-3.0	-22.0	-12.5	-9.5	W	L	U	0
May 20, 2009		Wed	2008	Cavaliers	Magic	home	106-107	8&2	-8.5	185.5	-1	-9.5	27.5	9.0	18.5	L	L	O	0
May 16, 2010	recap	Sun	2009	Magic	Celtics	home	88-92	5&2	-6.5	189.5	-4	-10.5	-9.5	-10.0	0.5	L	L	U	0
May 15, 2011	recap	Sun	2010	Bulls	Heat	home	103-82	2&3	-1.5	181.0	21	19.5	4.0	11.8	-7.8	W	W	O	0
May 17, 2011	recap	Tue	2010	Mavericks	Thunder	home	121-112	8&1	-6.0	192.5	9	3.0	40.5	21.8	18.8	W	W	O	0
May 27, 2012	recap	Sun	2011	Spurs	Thunder	home	101-98	6&5	-5.5	204.5	3	-2.5	-5.5	-4.0	-1.5	W	L	U	0
May 22, 2013	recap	Wed	2012	Heat	Pacers	home	103-102	6&3	-8.0	182.0	1	-7.0	23.0	8.0	15.0	W	L	O	1
May 18, 2014	recap	Sun	2013	Pacers	Heat	home		2&3	2.5	181.5
May 19, 2014	recap	Mon	2013	Spurs	Thunder	home		4&3	-5.5	208.5

Showing 1 to 15 of 15 entries

**chopperocker** · 05-17-14, 09:36 AM

playoffs=1 and series game=1 and site=home and line>0

playoffs=1 and series game=2 and site=home and p:line>0 and line>0

**chopperocker** · 05-18-14, 10:53 AM

team=Heat and playoffs=1 and series game=1 and site=away

**FortySix** · 05-21-14, 02:37 AM

You guys aren't doing anymore SDQL's for the remaining games?

**JAnthony** · 05-21-14, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by FortySix

You guys aren't doing anymore SDQL's for the remaining games?

No need really. It's easy enough to find good spot without SDQL.

**pip2** · 05-26-14, 09:06 AM

I kind of doubt there is a good answer for this, but I want throw the question out there just in case: When I use the "rest" parameter, it sharpens up my queries a good bit, I think. But stipulating the rest parameter too closely frequently seems to reduce the sample size too much as well, to the point where it is almost not worth using the "rest" parameter. Anybody got any tips/advice on getting around this issue?

One thing i have been doing is kind of triangulating. I'll make a query using "rest=0" and try to mentally combine the (usually) low sample size results of that query with another two queries that are exactly the same except they are using "rest>=0" and "rest<2". These queries don't kill the sample size so much, but are also less precise. But triangulating like that for every query is a bit if a pain in the ass...any other ideas?

**parlayin** · 05-28-14, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by JAnthony

No need really. It's easy enough to find good spot without SDQL.

What does that mean? In playoffs, the +EV situational spots are self-evident?

**parlayin** · 05-28-14, 10:40 PM

Does the SDQL database log 1st half player stats or 2nd half lines? Pretty sure answer is no since those can't be scraped from boxscores but just wanted to confirm.

**figue** · 06-15-14, 11:09 PM

well guys the nba season is over ,could someone post the best querys of this season to use the next season ??

**altcointrader** · 07-05-14, 10:41 PM

Hi Jmon!
Not a SBR regular but I noticed your thread.
I am very heavy into SQDL and am happy to share some gems.

I noticed you made mention of a database to track trends.

Do you use the In-Site $2 offer?
Or have your own way of tracking?
I have built my own tool to update and track upcoming trends - however, it sometimes has issues. Just curious what other people are doing or if they've used the API.

**nash13** · 10-12-14, 09:09 AM

something to work around.

p:steals > po:steals and p:blocks > po:blocks and p:HFL and HF and season

if a team played good D and looses as a F next time as a F their effort will be much better

p:steals < po:steals and p:blocks < po:blocks and p:ADW and HF

likely here is a letdown too

**pip2** · 10-12-14, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by nash13

something to work around.

p:steals > po:steals and p:blocks > po:blocks and p:HFL and HF and season

if a team played good D and looses as a F next time as a F their effort will be much better

p:steals < po:steals and p:blocks < po:blocks and p:ADW and HF

likely here is a letdown too

Kind of riffing off in another direction from your original query I came up with this:
P:steals < Po:steals and P:blocks < Po:blocks and P:L and WP>o:WP+20 and line<-4 and rest=0
SU: 47-19 (5.91, 71.2%)
ATS: 24-42-0 (-2.33, 36.4%) avg line: -8.2
O/U: 33-33-0 (-0.72, 50.0%) avg total: 194.2

The idea being that the dog team has the favorite team's number to some extent, and out-hustled them in the last matchup between the 2 teams, and now that next game between the two teams has come around, the favorite team is on the second game of a B2B.

Looking for a larger sample size, I got rid of the "P:L" parameter ended up with this:
P:steals < Po:steals and P:blocks < Po:blocks and WP>o:WP+20 and line<-4 and rest=0
SU: 132-54 (6.47, 71.0%)
ATS: 75-110-1 (-1.53, 40.5%) avg line: -8.0
O/U: 94-91-1 (0.27, 50.8%) avg total: 193.9

I couldn't figure out a way to get a larger sample size while keeping the nice 63 percentage...

**nash13** · 10-12-14, 04:40 PM

i think 60% wins on nearly 200 plays is better than 63% on 65 plays. Means more profit and looses not much ROI%.

**pip2** · 10-12-14, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by nash13

i think 60% wins on nearly 200 plays is better than 63% on 65 plays. Means more profit and looses not much ROI%.

I agree, Nash, but as I look over the results year by year, the 60% query looks like it hasn't done so well in the last few years. I also tried another tack by altering the 60% quote so that it looked for teams playing in games with a line between -13 and -6, and that looked really promising, with both 63% win rate and much larger sample size than the original 63% query. But again when I checked the year-by-year results, it looked like the last 2 years' results kind of sucked (again). I'm not sure I want to bet on something that has broken even/lost money recently. The 65-play query did go 3-2 last season...

Oops, maybe i didn't count carefully enough. The 60% system goes 37 and 19 over the past five years. The 63% system goes 20-7 over the past five years. Over the course of 5 years, 16 units profit for the 60% system and 12 units profit for the 63% system. I'd better go back and re-check the hybrid system as well...

Looks like it goes 10-23 over the last 5 years, again a 12-unit profit: P:steals < Po:steals and P:blocks < Po:blocks and WP>o:WP+20 and -13 < line <-6 and rest=0

I guess I was just taken aback by the fact that last season the 60% query only went 4-4...

**Mako-SBR** · 10-17-14, 01:35 AM

I am getting amped about NBA starting, was far and away my best ROI sport last year thanks to the work done in this thread by everyone who participated.

Let's get it!

**JMon** · 10-18-14, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by altcointrader

Hi Jmon!
Not a SBR regular but I noticed your thread.
I am very heavy into SQDL and am happy to share some gems.

I noticed you made mention of a database to track trends.

Do you use the In-Site $2 offer?
Or have your own way of tracking?
I have built my own tool to update and track upcoming trends - however, it sometimes has issues. Just curious what other people are doing or if they've used the API.

Hi atlcointrader, welcome

. I think we all (we are a joint effort here) would be interested in seeing some of your gems. And yes, I use the 'in-site tracking." I currently have 271 saved, but need to go through them here shortly and update or delete under-performing query's.

**JMon** · 10-18-14, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

I am getting amped about NBA starting, was far and away my best ROI sport last year thanks to the work done in this thread by everyone who participated.

Let's get it!

Yes, it was a very profitable season for sure..

Will we be using this thread or starting a new one? I would like to see some organization guidelines installed - if any one has some ideas please share.

**nash13** · 10-18-14, 10:37 AM

There are some issues with short cuts recently. I hope they fix them somehow.

**JAnthony** · 10-19-14, 10:25 AM

Can't wait to get things started this year. Thanks for introducing me to the SDQL world last year!

**nash13** · 10-19-14, 10:28 AM

the more people work and share their opinions on it, the more everyone will profit.

**Mako-SBR** · 10-20-14, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Yes, it was a very profitable season for sure..

Will we be using this thread or starting a new one? I would like to see some organization guidelines installed - if any one has some ideas please share.

I think we'll keep this one J, like the thought of it being a master database of working/sharp queries all in one place for us to search whenever we wonder "did I post this already" lol.

Thanks for all your guidance last season btw, your level of sophistication and expertise in this area always comes through. BOL this season buddy.