NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • hyahya
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-08-14
    • 165

    #596
    I like to look at the specific spot, pick out 3 or 4 factors I deem most relevant to input into the SDQL search. From there I attemmpt to fine tune it. I try to avoid the pitfalls of data mining bias this way.

    For the above query, I felt first game back from a 4+ game road trip with the last game being a loss against a AF coming off a home win were the most relevant factors. Could've also input conference!=o:conference as that accounts for a portion of the cross continent travel given it's the first game of a western road trip for the Wiz.
    Comment
    • cofaga
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-30-14
      • 32

      #597
      p:HFL and tA(o: points)<100 and po: points>110 and op:W and opp:W and oppp:W and opppp:W

      A decent defensive team after allowing more then 110 points at home in a loss as the favourite against a team on a 4 win streak
      Comment
      • tonywayne
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-05-13
        • 229

        #598
        Originally posted by cofaga
        p:HFL and tA(o: points)<100 and po: points>110 and op:W and opp:W and oppp:W and opppp:W

        A decent defensive team after allowing more then 110 points at home in a loss as the favourite against a team on a 4 win streak

        There's a cleaner way to include that streak in this case:

        o:streak = 4

        Saves you the trouble of putting all those oppppppp entries.
        Comment
        • cofaga
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-30-14
          • 32

          #599
          Originally posted by tonywayne
          There's a cleaner way to include that streak in this case:

          o:streak = 4

          Saves you the trouble of putting all those oppppppp entries.
          Cheers
          Comment
          • 19th Hole
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-22-09
            • 18923

            #600
            Does anyone consider the the SDQL DAILY NBA TIPSHEET plays?


            Comment
            • JAnthony
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-25-13
              • 635

              #601
              tA(points)>=100 and oA(o: points)>=101 and WP>=60 and tS(L, N=5)>=4 and game number>=30

              Total oriented trend, when a playoff team has a chance of getting getting back on the track against a poor defensive team.
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #602
                Originally posted by 19th Hole
                Does anyone consider the the SDQL DAILY NBA TIPSHEET plays?


                I'm not much of a "team specific" user of sdql. However, I do review them and they also a great way to learn.
                Comment
                • Mako-SBR
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 10-15-13
                  • 492

                  #603
                  Originally posted by JMon
                  I'm not much of a "team specific" user of sdql. However, I do review them and they also a great way to learn.
                  Agree, not much long term value with them for the most part as they're just too volatile.

                  They're actually a big part of the reason that the few SDQL-based pay touts out there have rarely exceeded 50% for long before crashing back to Earth over the course of a long season.

                  For a wide variety of reasons the majority of team/player trends break and expire at a much faster rate than the more generic league-wide trends...assuming the league-wide trend was based on logic and has a large number of games to analyze.

                  Excellent practice though within the db for sure, like that angle of the "daily" broadcasts.
                  Comment
                  • Mako-SBR
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-15-13
                    • 492

                    #604
                    Originally posted by JAnthony
                    tA(points)>=100 and oA(o: points)>=101 and WP>=60 and tS(L, N=5)>=4 and game number>=30

                    Total oriented trend, when a playoff team has a chance of getting getting back on the track against a poor defensive team.
                    That's not bad at all, good foundation to tweak and experiment off of.

                    It's basically taking advantage of the books having to walk the total down with each loss as the playoff team runs through that negative streak, in order to keep the square bettor engaged and willing to keep throwing money at the over/fav.

                    Might possibly work the other way as well (to the Under) by reversing the scenario and playing the under whenever a strong playoff-headed team reels off 4 wins in 5 games and crushes the Over, will have to play with it.

                    Either way it's a good example of a base query/scenario that works which can then be expanded on, which everyone should be doing with each query we post just to get good at seeing the whole picture.
                    Comment
                    • Mako-SBR
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-15-13
                      • 492

                      #605
                      Originally posted by tonywayne
                      There's a cleaner way to include that streak in this case:

                      o:streak = 4

                      Saves you the trouble of putting all those oppppppp entries.
                      Ha, never knew that, nice T.
                      Comment
                      • tonywayne
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 11-05-13
                        • 229

                        #606
                        Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                        Ha, never knew that, nice T.
                        Thanks. If you need a losing streak, use an negative number. And of course > and < work with it too. I've been using "streak" and "ats streak" routinely to look for trends.
                        Comment
                        • tonywayne
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-05-13
                          • 229

                          #607
                          What about:

                          HD and p:ADW and season >= 2009 and conference = o:conference = po:conference = Eastern

                          The road faves in this trend are winning by over 6.5 points on average (and covering nearly 64% of the time). That would seem to bode well for tonight's matchup with a pretty low spread.

                          Thoughts?
                          Comment
                          • dmitean
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-30-11
                            • 364

                            #608
                            Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                            Agree, not much long term value with them for the most part as they're just too volatile.

                            They're actually a big part of the reason that the few SDQL-based pay touts out there have rarely exceeded 50% for long before crashing back to Earth over the course of a long season.

                            For a wide variety of reasons the majority of team/player trends break and expire at a much faster rate than the more generic league-wide trends...assuming the league-wide trend was based on logic and has a large number of games to analyze.

                            Excellent practice though within the db for sure, like that angle of the "daily" broadcasts.
                            I actually prefer teams based trends than general ones.
                            I'ts obvious that bookies (and public) react quicker to teams based trends, because they are easier to notice, but they are usually much more accurate.

                            Like Boston playing Under second game B2B few years ago. Or betting Over on Bucks games, when Bogut sat out. Playing Over in Thunder games, the first season with Perkins was easy money (still is btw).
                            Thunder off a loss angle and so on...

                            Such trends usually come with a good reason and not just statistical coincidence.

                            General trends are much harder to understand, are we looking at statistical abnormality that should correct itself or there is some logic behind it.
                            Comment
                            • dmitean
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 03-30-11
                              • 364

                              #609
                              Originally posted by tonywayne
                              What about:

                              HD and p:ADW and season >= 2009 and conference = o:conference = po:conference = Eastern

                              The road faves in this trend are winning by over 6.5 points on average (and covering nearly 64% of the time). That would seem to bode well for tonight's matchup with a pretty low spread.

                              Thoughts?
                              Nice one, especially since it's 4 - 11 last two seasons and 1 - 5 last six times.
                              Comment
                              • JMon
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-11-09
                                • 9800

                                #610
                                Originally posted by JAnthony
                                tA(points)>=100 and oA(o: points)>=101 and WP>=60 and tS(L, N=5)>=4 and game number>=30

                                Total oriented trend, when a playoff team has a chance of getting getting back on the track against a poor defensive team.
                                like it
                                Comment
                                • JMon
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-11-09
                                  • 9800

                                  #611
                                  Originally posted by tonywayne
                                  There's a cleaner way to include that streak in this case:

                                  o:streak = 4

                                  Saves you the trouble of putting all those oppppppp entries.
                                  the way I prefer

                                  op:W and op2:W and op3:W and op4:W
                                  Comment
                                  • JMon
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 12-11-09
                                    • 9800

                                    #612
                                    Originally posted by hyahya
                                    Like this one quite a bit:

                                    HD and season>2002 and p:AL and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and op:W
                                    did you check out the total difference btwn conferences!
                                    Comment
                                    • JMon
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-11-09
                                      • 9800

                                      #613
                                      Originally posted by hyahya
                                      Here's another:

                                      HD and season>2009 and p: points<100 and pp: points<100 and tA(points)>100

                                      Probably a little too general. Changing to:

                                      HD and season>2009 and p: points<100 and pp: points<100 and tA(points)>100 and p:W

                                      More descriptive of the actual situation but drops our sample size significantly and shows less consistency over time as it's 2-9 since 2009 but only 8-17 since 2002 (6-8 between 2002-2009)
                                      what about turning it into a small home dog and dropping the season filter

                                      1.5<=line<=3
                                      Comment
                                      • Mako-SBR
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 10-15-13
                                        • 492

                                        #614
                                        Originally posted by dmitean
                                        I actually prefer teams based trends than general ones. I'ts obvious that bookies (and public) react quicker to teams based trends, but they are usually much more accurate.
                                        I'm sure you do, the public eats these up as being 'real', which is why touts use them so frequently on their advertising blogs.

                                        And I can definitely see why they're appealing, no question. But the actual results from thousands of previous team/player-trend plays from dozens of logged handicappers over the past decade's worth of NBA seasons have proven them to be tough to win with the vast majority of the time.

                                        The type that are like this example (not a real one, made up for the post) are nearly impossible to quantify as being anything other than a fluke, no matter how strong they may appear in the moment: "The Spurs are 14-2 when Tony Parker has a shooting % of 50% or higher in his previous game and 5+ assists".

                                        Or something like: "The Spurs are 11-1 when coming off 2 days or more rest after winning on the road within their division if they're playing their 4th game in 7 nights".

                                        I do like team trends in one way, which is as a tertiary piece of information when weighing other more important metrics/scenarios. But I won't make or cancel a bet I'm already leaning towards or against based on whether a team or player trend is pointing the opposite way.

                                        But all of us are always open to new angles though, if you find some that offer more than 50+ game sample sizes we'd definitely like to look at them!


                                        Originally posted by tonywayne
                                        What about:

                                        HD and p:ADW and season >= 2009 and conference = o:conference = po:conference = Eastern

                                        The road faves in this trend are winning by over 6.5 points on average (and covering nearly 64% of the time). That would seem to bode well for tonight's matchup with a pretty low spread.

                                        Thoughts?
                                        That's not bad either, I'd want to examine it a bit further but it looks like a solid one to build off and play with T. I hesitate to break out specific Divisions or Conferences (Eastern) but you never know, the data might point to some sort of hidden travel anomaly or circumstance that is present in a specific region that isn't in others.

                                        Either way it's something to work on, like it.
                                        Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-18-14, 05:23 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • JMon
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 12-11-09
                                          • 9800

                                          #615
                                          Nothing for me tonight. Few leans, but nothing strong enough

                                          GL fellas...and great contribution recently
                                          Comment
                                          • Mako-SBR
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 10-15-13
                                            • 492

                                            #616
                                            Originally posted by JMon
                                            Nothing for me tonight. Few leans, but nothing strong enough

                                            GL fellas...and great contribution recently
                                            I'm on this one today, but only a half unit as it's a scenario that's overfit and based off of ATS streaks and happens to feature pretty spectacularly shitty teams...all three of which aren't things I like to play on, but it's been winning so why not.

                                            Plus it works for the Under as well as the Spread pick for more action. Can't remember where it came from, looks like a cofaga special though :

                                            AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006
                                            Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-18-14, 06:07 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • hyahya
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 03-08-14
                                              • 165

                                              #617
                                              U lost me at "0=12"
                                              Comment
                                              • TheLuckFactor
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 03-08-14
                                                • 3

                                                #618
                                                Hi all,

                                                Both of these trends are admittedly biased and have small sample sizes. Returns conflicting results for the ATS pick, but both favor the over. Probably a no bet for me but figured I'd share to confirm that these trends are not reliable. (Still learning!)


                                                tS(U, N=9)>= 8 and total>=201 and HD


                                                tS(A,N=5)>=5 and HD and rest <=1 and line <4 and total>200

                                                Thanks!
                                                Comment
                                                • Mako-SBR
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 10-15-13
                                                  • 492

                                                  #619
                                                  Originally posted by hyahya
                                                  U lost me at "0=12"
                                                  Whoops, typo, edited it and now it's correct:

                                                  Edit: Damn, still wrong, something about the copy/paste. One sec

                                                  Edit 2: Ok, working once I put spaces into the part of the query the board had trouble with:

                                                  AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006

                                                  For the lurkers or inexperienced: Remove the spaces in the second half of the query above around the red letters/symbols, starting at the "and 0 < o: ats streak" area. First time I've seen that, no idea why it happened. So any red symbol or letter in the query above, remove the space in front or behind it.

                                                  Originally posted by TheLuckFactor
                                                  Both of these trends are admittedly biased and have small sample sizes. Returns conflicting results for the ATS pick, but both favor the over. Probably a no bet for me but figured I'd share to confirm that these trends are not reliable. (Still learning!)

                                                  tS(U, N=9)>= 8 and total>=201 and HD

                                                  tS(A,N=5)>=5 and HD and rest <=1 and line <4 and total>200
                                                  The second one is interesting to me. I like the concept of a small dog at home getting points with no rest after being away for ages and how that would conflict with the public bettor's mind and thus the corresponding line adjustment (value).

                                                  Worth looking into and seeing if we can expand it to a larger sample.
                                                  Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-18-14, 07:00 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FortySix
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 02-18-14
                                                    • 134

                                                    #620
                                                    Sorry Mako, i have been trying this one AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006 like you said, taking out the spaces but I keep getting an error reading.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mako-SBR
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 10-15-13
                                                      • 492

                                                      #621
                                                      Originally posted by FortySix
                                                      Sorry Mako, i have been trying this one AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006 like you said, taking out the spaces but I keep getting an error reading.
                                                      It works, just tested it, but you have to remove ONLY the spaces that were artificially entered. NOT the spaces that every single SDQL query always has. Use your head in other words and leave the spaces that have to be there of course.

                                                      SO: take out the spaces before and after the "<" symbols, take out the spaces around the "=" sign, take out the space after the "o:", you know, typical SDQL language typed the proper way.

                                                      LEAVE the spaces around the logical areas where typically SDQL queries always have spaces (around the "and" obviously, in between parameters, etc). It's just a few spaces, no other way to describe it.

                                                      Have never seen SBR's software do this before, no clue why (this is not related to the smiley spaces glitch we've already worked around for those lurking).
                                                      Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-18-14, 06:48 PM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mako-SBR
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 10-15-13
                                                        • 492

                                                        #622
                                                        Testing the previous query to identify a board post workaround, ignore:

                                                        AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mako-SBR
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 10-15-13
                                                          • 492

                                                          #623
                                                          Test 2:

                                                          AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mako-SBR
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 10-15-13
                                                            • 492

                                                            #624
                                                            Test 3:

                                                            AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mako-SBR
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 10-15-13
                                                              • 492

                                                              #625
                                                              Yeah no idea why, just tried to Go Advanced and disable the automatic HTML parsing the board does (along with smileys) for posting but none of it worked, all mangled the query the same way.

                                                              It doesn't like the way we define the ats streak parameter for SDQL for some reason, that particular "and < o: ats streak < 3" phrase (but without the spaces around the symbols and colon obviously).

                                                              Luckily we don't use it much but what a pain in the ass when we do.

                                                              Testing again, first with the spaces: < o:ats streak<3 and line> <o: ats="" streak="" <="" 3="" and="" line="">

                                                              Now without: <o:ats streak<3="" and="" line="">

                                                              Ok, the specific error the board has lies in the < symbol when followed without a space by the o: symbol. That screwed up the whole query in the board, so here it is with just that one single space added (you must remove it to cut and past into SDQL):

                                                              AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0< o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006

                                                              There we go. So to get the board to post it right I had to add a space after the red < symbol above. Take out that space and the query works in SDQL. It only seems to occur with that specific issue, a < or > symbol directly followed by the o:</o:ats></o:>
                                                              Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-18-14, 07:14 PM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • parlayin
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-03-07
                                                                • 1091

                                                                #626
                                                                Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                                                                Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

                                                                Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

                                                                AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006
                                                                Sorry I'm late, this was from page 3 but just a few questions as I'm still learning.

                                                                1. How are you capturing the "usually doesn't have strong offense" part?

                                                                2. If the basis is that a team's unusually high output will continue the next game, do the query results hold up in normal B2B situations, or what's the significance of using away dogs coming off home wins? I know that was the situation that given day with the Bulls and Heat but I'm wondering if the theory is supported more generally. Does home/away or previous win/loss matter? Isn't the p:dps the main factor?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JMon
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                                  • 9800

                                                                  #627
                                                                  Geez, thanks for the heads up mako
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mako-SBR
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 10-15-13
                                                                    • 492

                                                                    #628
                                                                    Originally posted by parlayin

                                                                    Sorry I'm late, this was from page 3 but just a few questions as I'm still learning.

                                                                    1. How are you capturing the "usually doesn't have strong offense" part?

                                                                    2. If the basis is that a team's unusually high output will continue the next game, do the query results hold up in normal B2B situations, or what's the significance of using away dogs coming off home wins? I know that was the situation that given day with the Bulls and Heat but I'm wondering if the theory is supported more generally. Does home/away or previous win/loss matter? Isn't the p:dps the main factor?
                                                                    Good Qs!

                                                                    For #1, it's the dps result in that previous game being so much higher than was expected from the team (see the KillerSports dot com NBA SDQL Manual .pdf for more information on dps, or for the lurkers trying to learn, any info about SDQL queries. I'd link it but SBR doesn't allow external links so Google it).

                                                                    For #2, momentum is the general answer, but all of the various permutations you're suggesting can be explored in SDQL itself with a little effort if you're interested. Run a variety of scenarios and report your results back to us, you may improve that query considerably.

                                                                    Originally posted by JMon
                                                                    Geez, thanks for the heads up mako
                                                                    Tell me about it, I want that half hour of my life back...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cofaga
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 01-30-14
                                                                      • 32

                                                                      #629
                                                                      p:H and P:margin<=-15 and AD and 60>o:WP>50 and conference=o:conference and (rest>0 and o:rest>0) and game number>=42

                                                                      Seems like a solid play to me, lemme know what you guys think (on the over play)
                                                                      Last edited by cofaga; 03-18-14, 10:30 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JAnthony
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 11-25-13
                                                                        • 635

                                                                        #630
                                                                        I like the chances of a team being a bit underrated by bookies, because of recent poor performance:

                                                                        p:ats margin<0 and 10<=p:line<=13 and 11<=line<=13

                                                                        Principle mostly the same:

                                                                        p:L and pp:L and -1<=line<=1 and rest=0 and o:WP<43 and A
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...