NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Noleafclover]

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

Took the team, small on the second under. The home team there is adjusting to C.B. some, and there are some high-foul refs there, but the reasoning in the SDQL is sound, so hopefully someone comes out and plays defense. I particularly like this late in the season towards playoff time, although adding that qualifier makes the numbers slightly worse with a much smaller sample size, I think there's some variance at work there and teams do tend to play defense in this spot down the wire even more.

[Mako-SBR]

Took the team, small on the second under. The home team there is adjusting to C.B. some, and there are some high-foul refs there, but the reasoning in the SDQL is sound, so hopefully someone comes out and plays defense. I particularly like this late in the season towards playoff time, although adding that qualifier makes the numbers slightly worse with a much smaller sample size, I think there's some variance at work there and teams do tend to play defense in this spot down the wire even more.

Mako - that first one seems incredibly specific. Between the previous margin, the current line, and the window of total points... it feels a little like a forced trend that happens to generate a decent result.

For me in that game, my gut is saying "the home team just isn't playing well right now... 5th game in 8 days... visitors covering spreads well the last week or two..." One of those "smell test" things, I guess. I'm just not seeing a double-digit spread as a good thing for them right now (would have been all over it a month ago).

Knew I'd get grief as soon as I posted them. Absolutely 100% knew it.

Posted them anyway, because this is NOT a "picks" thread. Again, to be clear...this is NOT a picks thread.

It's an educational thread, hopefully to get more people involved and firing at SDQL, towards the creation of more systems/analysis/etc.

I won't defend any of the queries I post, it's a waste of time. Not the overall goal.

Someone new, taking those queries, and building on them...now THAT is the goal. BOL.

[JayHorne3]

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

Solid stuff Mako, appreciate it

[tonywayne]

Knew I'd get grief as soon as I posted them. Absolutely 100% knew it.

Posted them anyway, because this is NOT a "picks" thread. Again, to be clear...this is NOT a picks thread.

It's an educational thread, hopefully to get more people involved and firing at SDQL, towards the creation of more systems/analysis/etc.

I won't defend any of the queries I post, it's a waste of time. Not the overall goal.

Someone new, taking those queries, and building on them...now THAT is the goal. BOL.

Well, I wasn't talking about "picks" either. I was positing a question about the query (ie. is it too specific/tailored?), which seems reasonable and appropriate. I'm specifically addressing "Mako's Parameter #6". "We can always find the pattern we need to back up what we want to happen" and all that...

I'm sorry I shared my gut feeling, and I will refrain from that in the future.

[Mako-SBR]

Well, I wasn't talking about "picks" either. I was positing a question about the query (ie. is it too specific/tailored?), which seems reasonable and appropriate. I'm specifically addressing "Mako's Parameter #6". "We can always find the pattern we need to back up what we want to happen" and all that...

I'm sorry I shared my gut feeling, and I will refrain from that in the future.

No worries, education is the key. Anything towards that goal is a good one.

[tonywayne]

So... in the interest of education, can you share why you do or don't think your 187 <= total <= 212 query might be overrigged?

[Mako-SBR]

So... in the interest of education, can you share why you do or don't think your 187 <= total <= 212 query might be overrigged?

Z, ATSm, -5P, basically it hits most of the majors, but in the area it doesn't quite meet the standard it's strong enough in the others to have a sort of compensating factors.

But even saying all that, as I mentioned earlier though it's different for everyone in terms of what systems they'll allow themselves to pursue despite perhaps not meeting their own criteria, versus the ones they will allow. Giving certain ones a "pass" so to speak.

It's a strange thing, but some of them just 'work'...kind of like how you keep giving a crazy girl a pass because she's great in bed, despite your friends telling you to dump her, the 'right' thing for your sanity.

[tonywayne]

One of my criteria is "don't try to guess when a team will break out of a slump". We read all the time about how "Team X should be able to right the ship against Team Y tonight". That's why I don't follow systems that bet on teams on losing streaks (ie betting that they'll win/cover one of the next ## of games). Probably better off betting on a team on a winning streak losing, since every team has off nights, especially against opponents they underestimate.

Great analogy, by the way.

[Mako-SBR]

One of my criteria is "don't try to guess when a team will break out of a slump". We read all the time about how "Team X should be able to right the ship against Team Y tonight". That's why I don't follow systems that bet on teams on losing streaks (ie betting that they'll win/cover one of the next ## of games). Probably better off betting on a team on a winning streak losing, since every team has off nights, especially against opponents they underestimate.

Great analogy, by the way.

I agree with that take personally because the very best (well known) 'streak' guys, no matter how in depth or detailed they are in their handicapping, never seem to be much above 50% over time. No matter what system or tracking they do it always comes back to the mean despite some strong logic and analysis.

As just a single example I'd much rather use say division=o:division (or not) and see a dramatic shift in the ATS win/loss rate in the query I'm fooling with versus seeing a query's results change based on a team 'winning 5 of their last 7 against the spread'...because I don't believe that necessarily means anything moving forward like it would say for a query working well inside the division but poorly when teams plays non-div opponents.

It's a fun game, I'm glad we're seeing so many people get involved because while it can be a bitch to learn upfront the payoffs of knowing how to mine the database teach lessons that last forever. Love it.

[JR007]

great thread, have you looked at the daily killersports nba tipsheet ??, my guess is that it incoropates this same stuff

[figue]

I've been playing the pacers under when their last game was on the road, and they play at home. The under is 11-5 this season, and while playing on 1 days rest, the under is 9-3 this season.

Also, The under is 11-3 this season when Bostons previous game was at home, and playing on the road. 6-3 on 1 days rest.
The under is also 8-2-2 over the last two seasons when Bostons previous game was at home in which they scored 100+pts and travel to play on the road.

Overnight line movement favors this play as well.

winner

[figue]

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

wow,nice sdql are

[figue]

Going ahead and posting this one for tomorrow night guys. Hopefully we can get another winner

Basically we are playing a favored team (above .600) to bounce back after losing their last two as favorites with at least 1 day rest against an opponent that has won their last two games and in a possible letdown scenario. Play tomorrow night is OKC -4!

21-1 (12.27, 95.5%)
16-4-2 (5.98, 80.0%)
11-11-0 (1.55, 50.0%)

winner ,nice work again

[Mako-SBR]

great thread, have you looked at the daily killersports nba tipsheet ??, my guess is that it incoropates this same stuff

Unfortunately most of their work isn't of much use. Too many small sample team-based trends (and worse, player trends) that don't offer an advantage over the line in the long run (i.e. are meaningless).

I do use some of their base rough ideas to go explore other more realistic queries (league/situation-based) though, so anything that helps you brainstorm new ideas can be a resource.

wow,nice

We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.

Great job all, keep up the good work!

[figue]

Unfortunately most of their work isn't of much use. Too many small sample team-based trends (and worse, player trends) that don't offer an advantage over the line in the long run (i.e. are meaningless).

I do use some of their base rough ideas to go explore other more realistic queries (league/situation-based) though, so anything that helps you brainstorm new ideas can be a resource.




We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.

Great job all, keep up the good work!

mako i would like to colaborate here,how do you find a winning situation ??

[JayHorne3]

Great work going on in this thread. This SDQL stuff is awesome

[figue]

We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.

Great job all, keep up the good work! [/QUOTE]

what was the other 2 plays that i missed ??

[Mako-SBR]

what was the other 2 plays that i missed ??

figgy the Indy game was also to win ATS (-11,pushed), in addition to the Under on it (was keeping it quiet to see if anyone would spot it ), and I had another query pointing at SAC to beat DET (+3, lost) which I thought was already posted in the thread?

So many pages now that I'm getting confused as to the queries we've already put up and the ones we have yet to put up...

[figue]

thanks for your answer,and so how do you find a winning situation ??

[JayHorne3]

Mako,

Can you check the following SDQL because this seems to good to be true: If correct it is saying 32-0 ATS with a play tomorrow night

AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L and oA(W)>=0.500 and season>=2005

[figue]

Mako,

Can you check the following SDQL because this seems to good to be true: If correct it is saying 32-0 ATS with a play tomorrow night

AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L and oA(W)>=0.500 and season>=2005

wow amazing situation you find,its 32-0 SU dogs too !! to good to be true,how do you find that ?

[JayHorne3]

wow amazing situation you find,its 32-0 SU dogs too !! to good to be true,how do you find that ?

Just putting in codes based on match-up situations for tomorrow night. Seems kinda crazy that it is 32-0 SU as dogs. Surely that can't be right

[NBACover]

I've been playing the pacers under when their last game was on the road, and they play at home. The under is 11-5 this season, and while playing on 1 days rest, the under is 9-3 this season.

Also, The under is 11-3 this season when Bostons previous game was at home, and playing on the road. 6-3 on 1 days rest.
The under is also 8-2-2 over the last two seasons when Bostons previous game was at home in which they scored 100+pts and travel to play on the road.

Overnight line movement favors this play as well.

Simple but winna

[Mako-SBR]

Mako,

Can you check the following SDQL because this seems to good to be true: If correct it is saying 32-0 ATS with a play tomorrow night

AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L and oA(W)>=0.500 and season>=2005

Broken, unfortunately.

Likely due to the non-standard Away win rate text you're using. Try the SDQL manual's version and see if the results change, have never tried it that way previously, Jmon might have a better shortcut more in the typical format like WP>=50 and o:WP>=50 are for total win rates, but specialized for Away returns.

[Mako-SBR]

thanks for your answer,and so how do you find a winning situation ??

Tons of online resources can provide idea inspiration for possible queries, whenever I'm bored I'll google base terms like "NBA situation" "NBA league scenario" "NBA league wide" "NBA teams have gone" etc etc.

Doing that will usually result in multiple tout blogs and "pick" sites, and even betting forums, which may have articles or posts about a certain angle or pattern they've been seeing. Run it all through SDQL and see if they're full of shit or not.

You'll find statfox posts, sportsinsight scenarios, etc, and just read/test/read/test.

[NBACover]

Right off the bat that Golden State / Clippers line looks a little juicy. Coming off an 23 point win at home and only allowing Dirk to make four buckets on 11 shots. Looking at last nights box score, it confuses me on how Golden State scored over 100 points. Curry only had ten points, while Iguodala and Lee had ten points combined. The bench did most of the work with another good performance from Jordan Crawford. Can they do that again vs the Clippers on zero days rest, traveling.

The Warriors have been in this situation before vs the clippers this season. Coming off an home win in which they scored 100+pts and then playing on the road. Oddly enough, the line was 7 for that game. And the total went way over, both teams scoring a combined 241 points. But the Warriors are 3-7-1 ATS in the this situation this season with lousy spread wins over Jazz,Nugg,and Kings. The record in this situations gets crappier; 6-16-1 ATS since the start of last season.


The problem for Clipper backers is the injury report. Jamal Crawford has been out last four of five games, playing small minutes vs Atl. Doc says Redick is close to being back, but that doesn't effect tonight's game at all. Also Jared Dudley whose missed that last three games with some sort of back spasms. But they've won 8 in-a-row, topping 100 points in each victory. The Clippers have won the last two matchups inside the Staples Center by 11 and 26 points. Their also winning their last four home games by an average of 12 points.

I like Doc Rivers and the Clippers tonight. Hoping to get the line around -6.

[NBACover]

Since Feb 22nd (18 match-ups)

Teams who play eachother on ZERO days rest, the over is 16-2.

A solid 60% this season; O/U 96-64-4.

[NBACover]

Since Feb 22nd (18 match-ups)

Teams who play eachother on ZERO days rest, the over is 16-2.

A solid 60% this season; O/U 96-64-4.

In todays matchups; both lines are 6.5 and both totals are 211.


Odd

[dmitean]

Where do you post your query? I tried to post in Killersports SDQL - but it gives an error message.

[Mako-SBR]

Where do you post your query? I tried to post in Killersports SDQL - but it gives an error message.

Got to read the thread. Take out all the spaces after a colon p or a colon o in the queries posted on SBR before inputting into SDQL. SBR places emoticons in them when we post them here, hence the need for adding and then removing the spaces.

[Wojo]

Since Feb 22nd (18 match-ups)

Teams who play eachother on ZERO days rest, the over is 16-2.

A solid 60% this season; O/U 96-64-4.

The percentage obviously remains the same, but when you have the exact same qualifier for each team, IMO, it is best to add a site to the query. Otherwise, you are actually doubling the instances of occurrence.

i.e., both teams zero rest is 48-32-2, 60.0%.

[JR007]

thanks for the response Mako "old granddad here", trying to learn from you kiddies

[JMon]

Anyone got a query on the Raptors or Kings under

[cofaga]

Anyone got a query on the Raptors or Kings under

I have something here

210>total>200 and p: points<100 and op: points<100 and o:rest=0 and H and oA(o: points)>100 and 102>tA(points)>98

[JMon]

I have something here

210>total>200 and p: points<100 and op: points<100 and o:rest=0 and H and oA(o: points)>100 and 102>tA(points)>98

Good cofaga

sorry for the late reply, I have a sick kid...anyway

208 >= total >= 201 and tS(ou margin, N=5) >= 30 and 60 >= WP >= 51 and 2009 <= season and site = home