Leans for Monday 2/23/09 schaapattack Week

[nonsense48]

hopefully this will be a typical monday and we smash the books this eve. let's get 'em

[bigboyfosho]

crap this sucks

[nonsense48]

hey sink, i see cash going down the drain on n.o.h. it's a no-play for me anyway so good luck

[nonsense48]

dit, that's the play if at all jmo

[Ditaln1]

I agree Non. going to book a small ML bet and take the points as a hedge!

[LUNT101]

Booked plays:

*Pacers +7
*Celtics/Nuggets 1Q Over 50.5 - both teams coming off very high scoring, fast paced games. I do not know if the over for the game will come in because its a b2b for both teams and they will be tired, but Denver will look to come out running and Boston, having played Phoenix last night, will be ready to roll with them.
*76ers -2 (Dex)
*Hawks +8 (PC)

[Dexter]

with both the nuggets and celtics having tired legs from btb (and denver first home game after a long east coast trip) - under is the right call tonight. i feel with the celtics looking for revenge, factored in with tired legs for both - the game will be played at bostons pace. the line movement has been perfect, as 55% of the public is on the over, yet the total has dropped from 202 to 198.5 steadily. i was able to land 200.5 with one of my guys (shop around folks)

added booked play-

under celtics 200.5

[nonsense48]

DEX, great weekend for you my friend. let's keep it up. good luck.

[Dexter]

lol - lunt and i were thinking bos/den total at the same time...

thx non

[LUNT101]

Great minds think alike. GL tonight my friend.

[BCaldwell32]

I smell a small ML play on sacramento and a hedge bet sacra + the points... whatcha think?

This is never a smart hedge cause if NO covers the spread you lose both ways.

[bigboyfosho]

who else is going pacers +7?

[Dexter]

This is never a smart hedge cause if NO covers the spread you lose both ways.

exactly - a "hedge" is made to reduce risk.

[shoebox]

This is never a smart hedge cause if NO covers the spread you lose both ways.

Sure it is, if your that confident on the ML the spread is a nice hedge.

[nonsense48]

dex, pm me your email please

[BCaldwell32]

Sure it is, if your that confident on the ML the spread is a nice hedge.

A hedge is a bet where lets say you bet Sacramento +7.5 and then you bet a little on New Orleans ML to reduce your risk and also possibly middle the game and win both bets.

[shoebox]

A hedge is a bet where lets say you bet Sacramento +7.5 and then you bet a little on New Orleans ML to reduce your risk and also possibly middle the game and win both bets.

Dont need a lecture on hedging, if your that confident on the ML spread can hedge your bet. Theres lots of cappers that use this, veteran cappers

[BCaldwell32]

ok well then it is called something different, cause a hedge reduces risk and this bet adds risk is all I'm saying and Dex agrees with me

[Pick'nParlays]

does hockeytown have any thoughts on dal/sj?

[Ditaln1]

No need to argue fellas. I probably used the wrong choice of words. I understand BC and Dex's explanation, I just used the wrong terminology. Then again, the only way to really hedge it is to take NO ML and Sacramento +points, and hope NO wins by less than 7.5 to win both bets. If NO covers like BC mentioned, you'll win the ML bet but lose the hedge bet. Just really matters which one you are more confident on.

[ANDYW15]

Rolling along the freeway with CK (and his PC Play crew)

Bos ml
Atl +8.5 (bought the pt)

And GSW -4 - Clippers players keep on coming in and out of this team like crazy which means they can never get a good chemistry together.

NHL SJ/Dal over 5.5

[ragiche]

Thanks CK,for all the help,support and encouragement that you have given to me.And all to the ck mafias' I will cherish it,I will.Bless you and your family CK and to all,and more power to this thread.

[nonsense48]

pick, TodaysAction has sj/dal over 5.5 as do i and i'm sure hockeytown will concur on this one

[The_Kid]

For those of you on the Sooners today, I'd think again...

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ap-t25--oklahoma-griffin&prov=ap&type=lgns

Blake Griffin has been ruled out for tonight's game vs the Jayhawks.

[Dexter]

For those of you on the Sooners today, I'd think again...

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ap-t25--oklahoma-griffin&prov=ap&type=lgns

Blake Griffin has been ruled out for tonight's game vs the Jayhawks.

whos blake griffin??? haha

just kididng nonsense!

[overdose.fR]

Hedging is like in capital markets: a security transaction that reduces the risk on an already existing investment position; example is the purchase of a put option in order to offset at least partially the potential losses from owned stock.

Bear in min also that although hedges reduce potential losses, they also tend to reduce potential profits

regards

[wangichu]

i'm really loving sacto here as they are just getting way too many points for a home tilt with the horny's... they took 2 of 3 from NO last year (both at arco) and have already split the games played in NO and even with revenge and home court, the horny's could only beat the kings by 9. The horny's lost at home to GS as well, so the jump shooting squads (like the kings) can clearly put a damper on the hornet's stay. As far as the line is concerned, that's plenty enough points in case the kings just choke in the last minute like they did against the jazz twice, but more importantly, it opened at 7.5, right below that key number, just begging and taunting hornet backers to throw their money away. I really like this play so i may just keep it to this one and obviously the PC play.

SAC +8.5/ML

as for the PC play, that line was just too weird to just pump the jazz again, They just came off a good victory against the hornets which they really controlled for most of the game. But the weird things about the hawks getting the same spread, despite a similar record is that the hawks are 4 games under .500 on the road (4 games worse than the horny's) they have a weaker eastern conference schedule, and the jazz have now covered vs. the lakers, celtics and horny's in the last few, so the fact that they'd only give the hawks screams shennanegins. That's why i was happy to see boozer coming back because minute mixing puts me over the edge on this one.

ATL +8.5 (FIRE LARGE)


anything good today HOCKEYTOWN?

[suckatmyjob]

out of the 6 games and everyone's lean this si what I'm thinking about tonight:

Atlanta +8
Sac +8
Over 205 ATL/UTAH
Over 225 NYK

best of luck

[nonsense48]

DEX, that's some funny chit. good laugh for my day off relaxing at home BY MYSELF...YESSSSSSSSSS, just me and my trusty dog

[suckatmyjob]

maybe tie it to a small parlay 6 with philly and NYK

[nonsense48]

what is your job that you suck at anyway?

[nonsense48]

let me guess...prostitute?

[suckatmyjob]

haha daytrading haha

[BCaldwell32]

Hedging is like in capital markets: a security transaction that reduces the risk on an already existing investment position; example is the purchase of a put option in order to offset at least partially the potential losses from owned stock.

Bear in min also that although hedges reduce potential losses, they also tend to reduce potential profits

regards

Exactly, hedging is a welcome wager from the bookies because they juice you more and the play that you like the most has a lower EV (expected value) because of the hedge. Like last year for example I had a situation in the super bowl with New England and the Giants where I win a big pool and make like 1500 if New England just wins the game. I thought about betting Giants money line to hedge my bet, but that in the long run is just throwing away huge EV of New England winning game outright. Yeah I could have guaranteed myself money on that day but in the long run it is costing me money.

[bigboyfosho]

that sucks