Leans for Friday 2/20/09 International Week

oBaMa_MaNiA · 02-20-09, 02:37 AM

Random fact for CK: Rockets are 6-1 with Aaron Brooks as starter.

I'm yet to cap the game!

B1GER1C828 · 02-20-09, 02:53 AM

disagree on both..good luck sir

The_Kid · 02-20-09, 03:28 AM

I'm looking at the Milwaukee/Cleveland game. Here are some trends I am noticing. I see the Bucks at +7.5 now but by tomorrow, it will probably go up knowing that the public will pound Cleveland. However, I love the way the Bucks are playing even without their star, Michael Redd and center, Andrew Bogut. Sessions, Jefferson, and Villanueva have filled in nicely ever since the injury bug struck their team. In the last 5 meetings between the two teams, the Bucks are 4-1 ATS with 2 games being straight up victories at the Bradley Center. In the last meeting, the spread was set similar to tomorrow's game. According to WinningEDGE.com, it was +7. Cavaliers won by 12 the last meeting but the spread is virtually the same. I like the Bucks to cover the fairly large number at home on a Friday night. Another trend I'm seeing in this game is the O/U which I see at 196.5. In the past 5 meetings between the two teams, the total has gone OVER 4 times with the last meeting being the lone exception for going UNDER. Again, according to WinningEDGE.com, I see the total for the last meeting was set at 195 (the two combined for 182). There's basically no adjustment from the last meeting and that tells me the linesmakers know both teams can/should put up points. I think the OVER is a solid play for tomorrow.

CK, I'm curious to know why you like the Lakers. I'm guessing you're looking at the revenge factor? To me, New Orleans getting 9 points on the road to the Lakers is pretty insulting. That's not taking anything away from the Lakers but maybe the news of the Chandler trade that was rescinded is part of the reason for your play as well?

pho3nix32 · 02-20-09, 03:46 AM

pls see below for final play...

joanapoker · 02-20-09, 04:44 AM

First: thx Hockeytown for the great picks

u r making the past couple of days! I'm even watching NHL games now, eheheh

For FRIDAY'S action

DAL +3.5 ( DAL 3-0 SU at Houston and also after a non-conference game: 13-8 ATS this season; 48-32 ATS in the past 3 seasons and 205-144 ATS since 1996). loss
NOH +9 (In the past 7 games between this two teams the underdog always won ATS, so why should this one be any diferent?? The Hornets are 3-0 ATS in the past 3 games at LAL) win

ORL -2.5 (comeback win from a huge loss at New Orleans)

ATL/POR UNDER 195 (The linesmaker put the total real close with all the statistical numbers, but one number seems to me the most important: Blazers defense at home. I can also add two more trends that show some strenght: the Hawks are in non-conference games 4-13 (O-U) and Portland in home games where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points 0-3 this season and 1-8 (O-U)the past 3 seasons!!) loss
ANA/DET OVER 5.5 (Hockeytown pick -- man of the moment) win

~~To bad I'm off on both picks of CK.............let's see what happens!~~ CK dropped LAL-9

Faded myself on the ORL play! It could be a trap! It's a NO play for me!

LATEST PLAYS ADD:
OKC +7.5 loss
CHI team OVER 103 win
NOH team OVER 99 win
NJ -2 1st qrt loss
MEM -3 1st half loss

BigDownUnder · 02-20-09, 05:37 AM

Greetings all,

I am a happy man today after cashing again yesterday on Man City +0.5 in UEFA Cup vs FC Kopenhang and JM DelPotro beating E Gulbis in ATP Memphis,plus the Spurs winning -2.

Might post a couple of tennis plays on here later today, and will definately post some NBA tips after doing some more work as SaminCharge would say!

BigDownUnder Recordas at 20/2/09:
NBA: 2 - 0 - 0
Other: 2 - 0 - 0

Dexter · 02-20-09, 05:39 AM

2/20/09-

It’s Friday night, and what better night to take a home dog (projected +4). The magic are clearly not the same team w/o nelson, and the bobcats are clearly a better team with Gerald Wallace. Okafor presents a tough matchup for howard. Quick turnaround off of that overtime game that the bobcats lets slip away in Orlando – look for them to be anxious for payback at home. The bobcats have won 3 of 5 su at home vs the magic. Browns got them playing a high level of defense right now.

-bobcats
________________________
Pure historical play here as the hawks are 4-1 ats the last 5 in port. The last 4 games there have resulted in losses by 1,1,1 and a straight up win. Projected line of +6

-hawks
________________________
I will now start to play suns overs until they stay under. This team has new life since the hated porter was dismissed. Amare is back to being a huge factor, and nash is running the offense the way it was built to be run. They have been scoring points all year, but that was because of the pure talent of guys on the roster – there was too much indecision in stretches of being half court, feeding shaq etc – that’s gone now as the suns have been given the full green light to run-n-gun ala golden state. The thunder should have no trouble trading baskets in stretches with players like Durant, green, and westbrook.

-over suns (big)

**off the over suns with the news of amare being out
________________________
Dallas has won 4 in a row su in hou – this has been a series dominated by the road team recently (6 of 7 su/ ats). Projected line of +3.5

-mavs
________________________
The bulls will be looking to avenge a double digit loss in den from earlier in the season. This will be the 7th game of an 8 game east coast trip for Denver who has lost 3 of 4 su in chi. I’ll take the Friday night home dog getting a projected +2.5.

-bulls
____________________

Dexter · 02-20-09, 05:40 AM

ck - curious on your rocket writeup - yesterday you mentioned them throwing in the towel (something like that)

wangichu · 02-20-09, 06:27 AM

mania's fun fact has me feeling like the rockets are a good play. I think that now that mcgrady is out, there will be less turmoil and better defense, specifically courtesy of artest and battier getting more time together on the floor, but also because brooks is deadly from behind the arc and should deepen their scoring ability. Still want to convince myself that the mavs don't just have their number specifically in houston, but i think they owe the mavs a home court hold...

HOU -3.5

don't know what it is, but the hawks and blazers just play tight games and the hawks have always played portland just as tough if not moreso IN PORTLAND. Last year they got off to a huge lead and it took a brandon roy miracle to pull the win, but the hawks have won in portland a time or two in years previous.

ATL +5/ML

I'm still in fade orlando mode right now and the impact of the trade won't hit quite yet, but either way after the overtime game in orlando, seeing how , with such a ridiculously low spread against a contender, i'm leaning heavily on the bobs early.

CHAR +2.5/ML

Duane1975 · 02-20-09, 06:38 AM

adding Minnesota -3 and Phoenix ML and Denver -2.5

BigDownUnder · 02-20-09, 07:51 AM

Hi all,

After doing some long hard thinking looking at all of today´s tennis matches I have a solid pick for you from the ATP Memphis tournament:

Pick: D Sela to win first set vs I Kunitsyn @ 1.73

Reason: Sela came through qualifying, is in good form, used to conditions and showed last year in similiar circumstances he is hard to beat (eg his run in ATP China). Kunitsyn playing okay at moment and gotten off to slow starts in last two matches. Expect the same against Sela.

NBA tips to come later today.

BOL!

------------------------------------------------
BigDownUnder Record at 19/2/09
NBA: 2 - 0 - 0
Other: 2 - 0 - 0

NBA Hero · 02-20-09, 07:53 AM

any news if alston will play on char?

BCaldwell32 · 02-20-09, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

I would like to apologize for the last 2 days guys, on a business trip lately. Let's try break this losing spell tomorrow:

line: phx@okc 233
pick: 233 under

Supporting trends:

- The under is 7-2 for the Thunder when playing with 2 days rest.
- Head to head, the under is 8-1 in the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 4-0 in games played in Phoenix the last 3 seasons.

Yes the Suns ran the Clips to the ground scoring 282 pts total in last 2 games but the Thunder are a different team. I seriously doubt that Durant and co. will allow the Suns to score that much points against them. There are only 2 things that might happen here, first, the Thunder keeps this close by playing some defense. Second, the Thunder throws so much bricks tomorrow and gets blown out by the Suns. Trend says Thunder dont seem to score well after 2 days rest. I'm sticking to my gameplan in following trends. That's one of the many valuable lessons i learned in this forum. Expect a game in the hundreds but will be short of the total boys and girls!

PS: I saw you are taking the over Dex, may the best man win.

I respect your plays and you have been doing well with the exception of the last couple days but I have to side with Dex on this one. The supporting trends you have on this particular matchups are for 2 teams that pretty much do not exist anymore. Phoenix has gotten the green light to like Dex said play like Golden St on offense (with better players). Oklahoma City is a much improved team that can score with anyone. Both of these teams play below average defense giving up over 103 points per game. As far as you saying Oklahoma City's defense is better than the Clippers, they might be slightly better but give up over 103 PPG which is identical to Clips. I see this game possibly going way over and like Dex said will ride Phoenix until they prove otherwise. I hope this helps maybe rethink your play because if I was leaning on the low side like you it would be a no play for me, only possible side to bet here is the over.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

CK, I'm curious to know why you like the Lakers. I'm guessing you're looking at the revenge factor? To me, New Orleans getting 9 points on the road to the Lakers is pretty insulting. That's not taking anything away from the Lakers but maybe the news of the Chandler trade that was rescinded is part of the reason for your play as well?

see, i dont look at this game as revenge. the lakers beat the hornets first 2 games of the year, and now to me - its the hornets turn to even things up.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

Yes the Suns ran the Clips to the ground scoring 282 pts total in last 2 games but the Thunder are a different team. I seriously doubt that Durant and co. will allow the Suns to score that much points against them.
PS: I saw you are taking the over Dex, may the best man win.

how are the thunder a different team? they (like the clippers) give up 103ppg. on the flip side, the thunder avg 98ppg, while the clips 95 (granted injuries have kept the clips scoring down earlier in the year).

pho3nix32 · 02-20-09, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

how are the thunder a different team? they (like the clippers) give up 103ppg. on the flip side, the thunder avg 98ppg, while the clips 95 (granted injuries have kept the clips scoring down earlier in the year).

i was doing my analysis in an airport this morning, now im back in the hotel room, its 9.45pm here... i think i will have to rescind my play...makes no sense right? my mistake...thanks for the warning and also to bcaldwell32...be right back with a new play...

Dexter · 02-20-09, 08:58 AM

sat - 2/21/09

ak47 is back, and the jazz are starting to roll. the hornets will be on not only a btb, but have to play their 4th game in 5 nights traveling to utah. the jazz will be rested off of their win vs boston (screw the boston hex in this one). the jazz are 5-0 ats the last 5 home games vs no winning by an avg margin of 22ppg. i only pray that the hornets upset the lakers tonight. projected line -5.5

-jazz (big)

_____________________
the warriors catch the thunder on a btb in oak, and rested off of that tough laker game they let slip away. gs should be seeing red, and place down the hammer nellie style on sat night. projected line -6.5

-warriors

Dexter · 02-20-09, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

i was doing my analysis in an airport this morning, now im back in the hotel room, its 9.45pm here... i think i will have to rescind my play...makes no sense right? my mistake...thanks for the warning and also to bcaldwell32...be right back with a new play...

whooooooaaaa - dude. im not looking to make you change your play. do your thing phx. you know your shit, and i respect you as one of the better cappers in this thread. i just wanted to point out a fact about the clippers and thunder defense.

if i was so sure that the suns game would go over, i would be borrowing from all my friends/family - and flying to nevada tonight. i'm not. lol

pho3nix32 · 02-20-09, 09:03 AM

I apologize for my performance the past 2 days. I hope to break this little slide tomorrow. Here is my final pick:

line: noh@lal 206
pick: 206 over

The Lakers don't have Bynum while the Hornets won't have Chandler. The middle is pretty much welcoming everyone to take the ball to the hoop. Kobe and Paul will be driving the lanes, West and Pau shooting mid-range jumpers, Peja and Fish draining 3-balls. Head to head, the over is 3-1 in games played in LA. I expect both teams to score at will tomorrow and score in the high hundreds. This should make more sense than my first call today haha. Thanks again for the heads up Dex and Bcaldwell.

pho3nix32 · 02-20-09, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

whooooooaaaa - dude. im not looking to make you change your play. do your thing phx. you know your shit, and i respect you as one of the better cappers in this thread. i just wanted to point out a fact about the clippers and thunder defense.

if i was so sure that the suns game would go over, i would be borrowing from all my friends/family - and flying to nevada tonight. i'm not. lol

no bro, i kinda forced the under play. and i realized that you are right. my play doesnt make much sense. gentry wants to get back to that "7 seconds or less" thing. i made a bad call. im in a slump. i hope to get back at the books tomorrow.

and man you called the spurs right today.

i really hate 2 game days.

BCaldwell32 · 02-20-09, 09:07 AM

The Knicks have owned the Raptors in the Garden going 10-4 ATS, Knicks have cashed 11 of 14 overall and 7 of the last 9. The Raptors are struggling with injuries and just got blown out by Cleveland coming off the break. With the Knicks playing very well lately and Raptors struggles, I see the Knicks having an easy time winning this game.

prediction: Knicks by 10

I think Minnesota is a team to watch in the 2nd half of the season and Indiana struggles on the road. I do not have trends supporting my pick but I see Minnesota being able to handle Indiana tonight.

prediction: Minn. by 4

Portland and Atlanta match up very evenly, the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams over past 3 years have been decided by 2 points or less with the exception of Atlanta winning by 11 in Portland. The dog has cashed 7 in a row in the series!! Also Greg Oden will miss tonights game with a bad left knee. 5 points is way to much for Portland to be giving up here.

Prediction: Atlanta by 1

I am also betting over in Phoenix game as you can see my previous post explaining. Good luck everyone, with Hockey carrying us lately let's have an awesome night in basketball as well.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 09:13 AM

- man, i so wanna play the wizards tomorrow night at home vs the spurs (8th and final game of the road trip) but how can you back such an awful team like the wiz when they are playing a btb? the historical trends in wash are even pretty much. damn - no play for me.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 09:15 AM

nice write ups bcald - you're my kinda member!

2/21-

the warriors catch the thunder on a btb in oak, and rested off of that tough laker game they let slip away. gs should be seeing red, and place down the hammer nellie style on sat night. projected line -6.5

-warriors

BCaldwell32 · 02-20-09, 09:16 AM

Yeah I hate when I lose money on Wizards, they are so awful. No play is usually what I come up with concerning them.

Jshap1515 · 02-20-09, 09:27 AM

I'm curious to see the line on the Kings and the Grizz. Worst teams haha

JGILL50 · 02-20-09, 09:34 AM

The rockets are a solid play. In no way shape or form was rafer alston a better all around player than aaron brooks. the ONLY thing rafer had going for him is he didnt turn the ball over. Rockets will win more games after this trade than before.

BCaldwell32 · 02-20-09, 09:37 AM

I'll guess Memphis will be 6 point favorites.

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 09:45 AM

I cant find anything about the Wahington/Colorado game where there is any new significant injury yet all the books have no line up for this game,i was going to play the over big but now i am staying away,somethings up on it.

Washington/Colorado over is a NO PLAY FOR ME

Dexter · 02-20-09, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by BCaldwell32

I'll guess Memphis will be 6 point favorites.

yup - 5/6 sounds about right.

the only play i would ever make in a game like this is under. but i usually never play a game involving 2 bad teams.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

I apologize for my performance the past 2 days. I hope to break this little slide tomorrow. Here is my final pick:

line: noh@lal 206
pick: 206 over

The Lakers don't have Bynum while the Hornets won't have Chandler. The middle is pretty much welcoming everyone to take the ball to the hoop. Kobe and Paul will be driving the lanes, West and Pau shooting mid-range jumpers, Peja and Fish draining 3-balls. Head to head, the over is 3-1 in games played in LA. I expect both teams to score at will tomorrow and score in the high hundreds. This should make more sense than my first call today haha. Thanks again for the heads up Dex and Bcaldwell.

now i really hope this suns game goes over...

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 09:59 AM

only 1 play for today in NHL

Wings/Anaheim over 5.5

ANDYW15 · 02-20-09, 10:03 AM

I might play the over in all 3 nhl games tonight. So far no value in the ML for my liking.

solobass · 02-20-09, 10:06 AM

Dex, initially I had concerns about OKC holding up their end of the deal for the O/U. With a total of 233 one bad quarter by either team and that is shot. There is a lot of evidence out there to support the thunder scoring over 108 against better competition the last few months and I am with you on this play. Thanks for bringing it to light!

Suns/Thunder Over 233

ANDYW15 · 02-20-09, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by hockeytown11

I cant find anything about the Wahington/Colorado game where there is any new significant injury yet all the books have no line up for this game,i was going to play the over big but now i am staying away,somethings up on it.

Washington/Colorado over is a NO PLAY FOR ME

Very weird this, Raycroft conf for Avs, Theodore has said he will play for Caps. No injury news.. odd