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11/24/13 36W-32L +13.04
The GOOD news is that while we lost a CHASE that never should have been played in the 1st place, we're still up 13.04 units and pretty much have a clean slate. At this rate we are still on a 70+ unit season. Another way to look at it is units won per bet which is about .18. with ABOUT 450 total wagers we're looking at an 83 units season . . . optimistically.
TODAYResults
18D S4 Houston fade Minn 10.19 to win 9.26
32B S4 Indiana fade Philly 2.31 to win 2.10
33A S4 NY fade Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
37A S4 Brooklyn fade Detroit 1.10 to win 10.00u
Tomorrows known games
38A S1 Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00
11/26/13 29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn
Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-24-13, 03:47 PM.Comment -
Question
Grinder,
When back testing the data for the OT fade, was there anyway to run a filter for days of rest between OT game and next game. I would be curious of the results. Just thinking out loud. Been following all season, great thread. Thanks for all your hard work.Comment -
11/25/13 37W-32L +14.04
TodayResults
37A S4 Brooklyn fade Detroit 1.10 to win 10.00u
38A S3 Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00
Tomorrow - Tuesday's known games
29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn
Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-25-13, 09:24 PM.Comment -
That would be nice. It's all done with my eyes so not at the moment. I know what you are saying though. Sometimes there is an OT game and a week off!
remember all - these are some pretty small numbers we're talking about so it's not an air tight system by any means. There are so many arguments AGAINST this kind of system I can't argue we're not walking on the edge of swamp land.
For instance - Philly has gone 11 years without losing a S4 fade but then lost 2 in one year. Just sayin'. I'll be throwing caution to the wind from time to time this year. Not at the moment though ;-)Comment -
Grinder thanks again. Your doing great. From all of your back testing and data you find S1 or S4 to be the highest winning % over the long haul?Comment -
anyone dare continue fading Houston? Any data on "E" bets?Comment -
Not a bad bet actually - last 10 game RPI has Houston .539 and Memphis .577. Houston on the road means the linemakers think Houston on neutral court is the favorite which RPI-wise they are not.
I won't put 19.45 units on the game as an "E" bet but I will put something on Memphis!Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-25-13, 02:43 PM.Comment -
Food for thought - I have this software that gives me an RPI.
ANYWAY - what if I took Pythagorean theorem, or at least how it's used in sports to create a winning % for one team THEN figure out a point spread. For instance the "E" game from above (NO, we are not betting an "E" game but . . )The RPI does not produce a point differential, but is still a useful handicapping tool. It essentially measures a team’s strength of schedule and how a team does against that schedule. Unlike most power rating systems, the RPI does not consider margin of victory or how well a team has played. It only considers whether a team won or lost. In fact, the RPI is based entirely on winning percentage. It is based 25% on a team’s winning percentage, 50% on the winning percentage of their opponents, and 25% on the winning percentage of their opponent’s opponents.
WinPicks weights away and home records differently when calculating winning percentages for the RPI. A road win is weighted as 1.4 when calculating the winning percentages, and a road loss is weighted as 0.6. Likewise, a home win is weighted as 0.6, and a home loss is weighted as 1.4. These adjustments apply to all percentages; e.g. a team's winning percentage, and their opponent's winning percentages.
*
Memphis .577
Houston .539
(.577*.577)=.332929
(.539*.539)=.290521
((.332929 / (.332929+.290521)) = .530 this is the winning % that Memphis should have when they play Houston.
.530 is about -113 in a line. The TRUE line (so to speak) Now we just have to know what -113 is in a point spread.
today I see -125 is -1.5 So -113 is maybe -1 or less. Basically a pick. Memphis is +1.5 so the play is Memphis!!
Or something like that - once I get home from a 7 day road trip I'll look into this deeper.
Taking that same concept Detroit should win .581 over the Bucks which is -139. hmmmmm Play is the 2-9 Bucks on the road! hmmmmmLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-25-13, 06:18 PM.Comment -
Does it give a separate home and road RPI for a team? Here are my thoughts, lets say a team is perfect at home 20-0 but on the road 0-20 I would assume RPI would be somewhere around the middle of the pack but the line will be directly affected if they are home or away and going off of a .500 RPI or what ever it would be might hurt value of home court.Comment -
Home wins and losses are calculated different the road wins losses. So a home win means less the a road win.
RPI also takes into account opponent win% AND opponents opponents win % and strength of schedule.Comment -
I apologize It's an S3 - got my systems mixed up
S3: Whenever a team starts a home or road trip of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4
No S1's for a long time - well, 5 days which seems a lifetime in Chase years.Comment -
11/26/13 38W-32L +15.04
And now we know why we don't do "E" bets! Anyone for an "F" bet? Only 37.90 to win 33.54!Results
38A S3 Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 -well, that was easy!
Tuesday's games
29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
39A S1 N.O. fade Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00
Wednesday games
40A S4 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 the first S4 FOLLOW in history!
On the road Tuesday trying to get 600 miles under my belt!
Revised and correct S4
S4 Overtime S1 Streak Play Fade PLAY Fade Boston 47-0 Toronto 56-1 Brooklyn 55-1 Brooklyn 63-1 Brooklyn 44-1 Atlanta 50-0 Cleveland 63-1 Mia 53-1 Chicago 57-0 Dallas 40-1 Charl 42-0 LAL 81-2 Denver 39-0 LA Clippers 39-0 Orlando 57-1 N.O. 54-1 Detroit 43-1 LALakers 43-1 Golden St 55-1 Okla 44-1 Houston 45-1 Memphis 45-0 Port 50-1 Port 51-1 Milwaukee 41-1 Miami 54-0 Utah 59-0 New Orleans 43-1 Minnesota 29-1 Philly 44-1 Orlando 30-1 Phoenix 37-0 Sacramento 48-0 Portland 46-1 Washington 42-1 Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-26-13, 12:01 AM.Comment -
Sorry for the noob question but what does FADE mean?Comment -
Fade means bet against
Follow means bet ON - I'm not sure if Follow is a real gambling term LOL
Always play the highlighted team
You might ask what is the difference? - it's is the WHY we are playing a team. Sometimes we bet AGAINST a team no matter who they are playing and others times we FOLLOW a team.
If anybody is just jumping on, this is a 4 game chase betting scheme system and it's aggressive
Lose the first and we up our bets as seen below
Bet / to win
The theory is "HEY, they can't possibly do that 4 times in a row, what could possibly go wrong!"1.10units 1.00u 2.31 2.10 4.85 4.41 10.19 9.26
Once we win the bet we are done with that chase.
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See you guys in 500 miles and only another 500 after that!! On the road with Grinder! Next picks will be tomorrow morningLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-26-13, 08:23 AM.Comment -
Tail and chase mean the same as follow also.Comment -
Thanks guys. Well I am jumping on this train so don't let me down
So if I understand correctly if my bet unit is $50 it will look something like this.
Day 1:
$55 to win $50
Day 2: (if day 1 is loss)
$115.50 to win $105
Day 3: (if day 2 is loss)
$242.50 to win $220.5
Day 4: (if day 3 is loss)
$509.50 to win $463
If all four days are loss you are expecting to be down $922.50 or 18.45 units. So we are expecting 19 or more streaks to be snapped before a team goes on 4+ losing streak.Comment -
11/27/13 40W-32L +20.45
WednesdayResults
29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
39A S1 N.O. fade Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00
40A S4 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
Next known game
11/29/13 41A S3 Sacramento
Anybody adverse on changing the system names to slightly more meaningful?
S1 = H1 Home
S3 = S3 Streak
S4 = O4 Overtime
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Drove 624 miles today - another 400 tomorrow!!
bgilic - you got it buddyLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-26-13, 11:49 PM.Comment -
Thanks guys. So how do you deal with a push? Do you bet the team again next game? On that topic how do you select the plays in the first place?Comment -
NO Fade is a pushComment -
Are you able to tell me what your win / loss rate is on "A", "B", "C" & "D" bets?
Credit also for all the work you put in.Comment -
depends when the fade happens.
as far as betting in S3 a push becomes a problem, In S1 and S4 a push is a no play and the chase continues.
I'll have some numbers once I get to a real computer tomorrow. Open Source Office at the moment.
System explanation
S1 - When CERTAIN teams have winning or losing streaks of 3 games (ATS) chase that team as it will continue to win or lose 1 game in the next 4
S4 - When CERTAIN teams play an overtime game it will lose or win one game ATS in their next 4.
S3: Whenever a team starts a home stand of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4 game chase in the first game being played @homeLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-27-13, 10:56 AM.Comment -
Grinder, really enjoy what you're doing here. Keep it up! I will continue to follow along all season.
In terms of the system names, I'm all in favor of your suggestions (H1, S3, O4). May be easier to follow that way.Comment -
Good pick with Chicago today.Comment -
11/28/13 41W-32L +21.45
NO GAMES THURSDAYResults
40A S4 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
Friday
41A S3 Sacramento 1.1 to win 1.0u
42A O4 Washington 1.1 to win 1.0u O4 was S4
Note - weirdness coming with Washington as they start a H1 series soon. Let's finish 42A quick.
Happy Thanksgiving to Americans - I am thankful for vulchers, bacteria and my endocrine system.Comment -
Records
H3 (was S3)
A 6-3
B 3-0
O4 (was S4)
A 13-10
B 4-6
C 3-3
D 2-1*
S1
A 3-7
B 5-2
C 2-0
* because I finally found OT stats - if we played with the new data we would not have lost that "D" bet and chase-wise would be 17-0 as opposed to 22-1 I don't have that broken down into A,B C yet (I'm on an archaic computer until Tuesday).
fun with numbers
we are averaging 0.71 units per day.
there are 138 days left in the season which is 98.67 units. IF (BIG IF) we keep this pace that would be 120.12 units.Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-29-13, 11:30 AM.Comment -
What site are you using to bet with? Since I am doing a lot of bonus bagging I use various sites and they offer different odds and spreads so I would like to keep in line as much as possible with yours.Comment -
Bovoda and 5dimes at the moment. On close games I go with what ever was the most common line during the day. It's a judgementLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-29-13, 11:02 PM.Comment -
sir grinder, isnt it O4 Was fade and O4 MIL? i based it on your table of play and fade O4Comment -
Yea, I was looking ahead and Washington is a tail tomorrow and I mistyped. They are only slightly worse as a tail in O4 so my gut feeling is to continue as is as a tail and since they begins a H1 tomorrow . . . . I'm confidant we can kill two birds with one stone in the next 4 games.
However if someone does not want to continue and just take a 1u loss that is fine.
this road trip is really messing with my schedule.
known games
42B. Washington tail
43A H1. Washington tailLast edited by Grinder12000; 11-30-13, 12:04 AM.Comment -
ohh i get it
thanks! and PLAY MIL right?
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Oh Milwaukee. Man I hate this trip. Totally out of my comfort zone. Man they suck and are injured. I'm skipping it since I missed it. Glad some one is paying attention.
wedding tomorrow and the 1000 miles back north. I'm just trying to keep my head above water.Comment -
11/30/13 41W-34L +19.25
Results
41A S3 Sacramento 1.1 to win 1.0u
42A O4 Washington 1.1 to win 1.0u O4 was S4
Saturday
42B O4 Washington 2.31 to win 2.1u
43A H3 Washington 1.1 to win 1.0u
Sundays known games
41B H3 Sacramento
44A O4 Sac fade G.S.
45A O4 LAClippers fade Ind
NOT playing the O4 Mil tail chase. Missed it and they are 2-10 ATS so lets just skip it.
also
PLAYING S1 NO fade. We won in a few days ago but my database says it was a push so I'm going to continue it as a new chase.Comment
