Leans for Wednesday 2/11/09

[cocknocker]

Secret Plays for Tuesday

Tennessee-10 1st halfBIG
BYU-10 1st half BIG

NBA

Boston-6.5 AVERAGE
Portland-11.5 BIG

Utah was dropped due to strange line movement.
Write ups forthcoming tomorrow morning

anthonydiamonds-O-Meter 3-1-0

anthonydiamonds plays:

Cavs-4.5 1st half
Spurs-6.5 game
Clippers-5.5

Secret Play-O-Meter 33-12-0

[cnleaf]

CK, u changed the play to ORL?

[nonsense48]

ck, i booked spur-7 to handle the raps as they usually do.

[nonsense48]

spurs beat them by 10 with bosh so 7 shouldn't be a prob. i should think

[nonsense48]

ck, have you already played tenn and bay 1st 1/2 sp?

[nonsense48]

ck, the reason i ask is, do you see the 1st 1/2 lines in those 2 games going below the 9.5 sp limit? thus making it a no-play.

[Karayilan9]

Nonsense
spurs beat them by 10 with bosh so 7 shouldn't be a prob. i should think

If Raptors play anything like they did today I think the Spurs will trash them, did you watch the Raptors game? the only reason they won was because the Wolves were even worse than they were, I couldn't watch any more after the 1st Half, maybe the 2nd half performance was a bit better but it wasn't very impressive.

I think the Spurs game has potential

[nonsense48]

spurs and raps are both on a b/b so that's a non-issue

[Karayilan9]

Hopefully Bosh is stilll out

[MrMonkey]

CK, u changed the play to ORL?

It seems like a situational play before the break. Denver won tonight, so play Orlando tomorrow. If Denver lost, then play them against the Magic. Nuggets hopefully won't show up against Magic.

MrMonkey

[nonsense48]

kar, bosh has been out since he hurt his knee on 2/4 and he isn't coming back until after the a/s break

[nonsense48]

nugs are playing solid ball right now but being on the back end of a b/b makes the magic the obvious play but the 8pts might be a bit too much as the magic haven't been covering against +.500 teams. so i need to study this one a bit more and hope the line comes down or i might just buy it up a bit and take the nugs. we shall see how the line moves.

[cocknocker]

CK, u changed the play to ORL?

I got rid of that game altogether actually after thinking about it

[jalein]

Just a friendly reminder...

Dont go against the numbers. Ride the hot hand until it goes cold and make sure you have the roll to ride a bid turn. Case in point I took an 0-5 POWDER on the sat secret plays. Rather than chase lost money, I closed it down, went to the ABC store for a stiff drink and reset. Al of the losses of my worst day in 3 yrs of sports wagering have been recovered as of tonight with the OK cover vs the Lake show. The Morrison system bets are 100% since I have been playing them. The sat meltdown was a good slap in the face to remind me just how important the numbers and the math behind smart money management really are. Blending CK secrets, Morrison system plays, hockeytown's hockey picks, and strong insight from Dex have been a mainstay of my making money diet. This past week was the first time I lost money in 10 weeks. I want to make this week the start of another NICE money making run.

A member I respect emailed me with his concerns about the Toronto Raptor "B" system play this weekend. After looking at it and weighing in the Bosh injury, I sat the "B" bet on Toronto out which Toronto failed to cover, pushing them to the "C" wager this evening. When I did my little research while at work and saw that only 3 times have the Morrison system bets gont to the "C" wager and only ONCE has in lost, I quickly jumped my happy ass on Toronto. My book had Toronto at -2. I recognized this a smart money wager. The Morrison system calls for a 3 pt buy. I buy 2 per game. There was no point in buying this down to a pick or a 1/2 pt for that matter. So instead of buying 2 pts, I brought 1 pt to get it to Toronto -2. I took the extra 20% juice that I saved on the 1 pt buy and stacked that chit right on top of the money I lost on the Toronto "A" bet PLUS the money I would have wagered on the "B" bet. The result of SKIPPING the B bet (which lost), and a smart money wager resulted from going down 1.5 units to PLUS 4 units on the Toronto Morrison system wagers all the way through the "C" bet. I dropped 10 units Sat on 0-5 secrets, won 2 units on the Sun CK Secret on Portland St, 3 units yesterday with Hockeytown's over on calgary, 2 unit on NBA mafia picks on monday, a NET +4 units on the "C" bet from Toronto and 2 units on the OK City cover vs. the Lake show and Wa-La!!! I went from -10 units saturday to +3 units 3 days later after the close of wagering Tuesday night. This CHIT IS MAGIC MONEY if you handle your money right!!!

[ANDYW15]

my early leans for tomorrow, I'll write later with my reasons;

Spurs -7 ( 2 units)
Bobs -8
Lakers -2.5

[demize21]

didnt realize there was a limit on secret plays with regard to -9.5 seen many SP with over that number???? also i think boston is a JM system play as well if i read correctly

[pho3nix32]

Good job by the Spurs in putting us back on the winning track today. Let's get another one tomorrow guys:

line: dn+8.5@om
pick: om-8.5

Trends:

- Nuggets are 5-8 ATS when playing as dogs.
- Nuggets are 10-14 ATS when playing against teams with winning records.
- Magic are a flawless 9-0 ATS when playing after 2 days rest!!!
- Magic are 19-5 ATS against non-conference teams.
- Magic are 18-6 ATS against bad defensive teams.
- Magic are 14-3 ATS against good offensive teams.

The trends of the Magic speaks for itself. Sure, the Nuggets are doing well ATS themselves this season but head to head, the Magic owns the Nuggets at home, going 8-1 ATS since '96 and perfect for the past 3 seasons. The Nuggets will be caught off guard tomorrow after winning easily in Miami today. Expect the Magic to laydown a can of Florida whoop-ass to Denver via their inside/outside game!

[img]

didnt realize there was a limit on secret plays with regard to -9.5 seen many SP with over that number???? also i think boston is a JM system play as well if i read correctly

over that number is okay to play. under that number means a no play.

[wangichu]

been crunching numbers but the numbers only take me a point or two on the lowside of 190 in the TOR/SA game, but i feel really strongly about that going under. Spurs used to be a little bit hard up for scoring on the second day of back to backs, but the spurs are on fire right now and i cannot fade them. I feel very good about their ability to play defense first basketball against a team missing its leading scorer. This is the kind of team that should hardly be able to score on the spurs and they play defense themselves. Anyways.

TOR/SA under 190 (public's on the other side of this one so far, so i'll sit on it.
95.8 ppg

the thunder put a thumping on a trailblazer team that has been trying to be a contender this year and there's one thing that burgeoning contenders do in their breakout party, it's take vicious vengence on an inferior squad. don't want to overanalyze this and i may wind up getting victimized by the thunder's superhuman cover ability

POR -11

[wangichu]

you went out and did it... you pissed LeBron off and sent him home to oust a pretender. The suns are not going to contend for any titles this year and the cavs are. Snubbing Lebron of a victory (as he'll see it) is like letting your cattle iron rest on a bull's @$$ and seeing how he feels about it. All I know is the cavs are coming off their first home loss and first back to back losses of the year, and have their home crowd to get them fired up to play a team they are in another level than.

CLE -7.5

oh now you've gone and done it. The jazz may be playing bad ball lately, but you just went and gave them points to play at home. i'm gonna sit on this one, but i'm thinking of firing on the jazz +2.5... gotta make sure i'm not just burning money.

UTAH +2.5 (?)

highly considering adding orlando... BIG early RLM and the magic have been doing this to teams who look for vengence. Nuggs on btb

[cheesehead004]

nba can wait for a day. there is a boatload of cash to be won on USA Soccer tomorrow. gonna hammer the mexicans.

[FrenchConnection]

I just want to share a new website I have found recently!

http://www.sfstats.net/

and an example of what they do on NBA games:

http://www.sfstats.net/basketball/leagues/1_NBA/compare/199/178

If you click Left on the score you will have it quarter by quarter...
They do the same thing for NHL, soccer and handball... as they are connected with "Europeans Bookmakers" there is decimal odds

... but it's free

[FrenchConnection]

nba can wait for a day. there is a boatload of cash to be won on USA Soccer tomorrow. gonna hammer the mexicans.

Why do you want to go with Mexico tonight??
Do you have some infos... I can't find the line-up...

Thanks

[strybie]

secret plays ... don't trust them anymore, lost too much on Saturday.

[BiggDogg5n2]

Secret Plays...33-12 = 73.33%...
I'll trust that anyday....
Thank-you to CK and everyone else who contributes on this thread ...You have been a great source of information and you pick an awesome percent of winners...BOL and God bless...Dogg

[showtime2000]

Hey hockeytown, great night last night, some puck trends for ya to look at ,
-Over in OTT/BUF, last 6 in Buff have gone over head to head,
-NY/NJ, over has hit 6-2 in B2B games for the Islanders this season.

Glad to see Secret plays are back in play today!

[Dexter]

the nuggets will be on a btb (off a su road win) going to orlando who are 5-0 su/ats last 5 home game vs den (winning by 11ppg). this will be the 5th and final road game for the nuggets before the break - they may be looking ahead to their vacation. projected line of -7

-magic
_________________
the celtics are only 5-5 ats following a su loss this year, but i expect them to come out strong and look to go into the break on a high note. sounds like paul and chandler will both be out - paul is the key for me here.
-celtics
_________________
the pacers have beaten the celts, magic, lakers and now the cavs at home this year. huge emotional wins that clearly can take a lot out of a team. in the games following the other 3 losses, the pacers have lost all 3 su/ats by an avg of 10ppg. factor in a btb here for indy (6-8ats this year) and the teams each winning au/ats already this year on their home court - and i'll side with the home team again in this one.

-bucks (big)
________________

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Okay. I'm liking Bobcats (big), Spurs 2 point buy (regular), Lakers ML (regular) and Cavs (regular).

Should get my Cavs money back today with a p***ed off LeBron. Write ups to come in a bit!

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Should clarify. Not quite a big play but bigger than the others.

Bobcats - 3.3 units
Lakers - 2.2 units
Spurs - 2.2 units
Cavs - 2.2 units.

[TheRussianMob]

Tenn looks good

[Dexter]

nba can wait for a day. there is a boatload of cash to be won on USA Soccer tomorrow. gonna hammer the mexicans.

look at you with the sick comeback - down to the wire between NY and Vegas!


Standings
CheeseHead004 15-9-1 (25 games) 62.5%
Dexter 13-8 (21 games) 62%

[peterpan19]

Anyway here is what I like so far:
SA -7 (2.0)
Bos -lets see (hope for -6 here) (2.0)
ORL - 8 (2.0)
both SP (2 each)
plays are not final and that is only the games I like right now (I really have to look into the whole thing in the next few hours), also not one of them really catches my eye, maybe the Bos game depending on the line
I also would like to play CLE, but hey they burned me twice in a row, so probably a no go and Pho is 4-2 ATS plus all the injuries to the Cavs, but on the other side they play a really bad suns team right now, cant pull the trigger either way here

[hockeytown11]

Puck plays for tonight

San Jose -130
Atlanta/Chicago over 6
Montreal/Edmonton over 5.5
Colorado/Minny under 5.5

[chaseman]

CK, I love and appreciate your secret plays, but I should give you a word of caution...
BE CAREFUL with the Tennessee first half. I attend UT and most of the games, and we tend to play on the level of our opponents. Your history shows the odds are on your side, but you may want to reconsider.

I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but I felt obliged.

Good luck, and thanks for the plays.

[Dexter]

decided to just make a normal size wager on boston - paul and chandler will be gametime decisions - even if they play, minute mixing will be an issue for no - so i still like boston to take this one by 10+ off a su loss. plus, i'm cold with larger plays, so will stick to my rule of thumb which is to bet less when i'm cold, more when i'm hot.