New nba power rating system

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Formulawiz
    Restricted User
    • 01-12-09
    • 1589

    #666
    Baseball my favorite sport is almost here.

    In answer to some of your emails regarding a baseball spreadsheet. Last year I was able to adapt the baseball system by using our football and basketball spreadsheet. I must admit I had no success when it came to picking winners using this system. The win/loss % was somewhere in the low 50% range. My observation is the run production in baseball is just to close to obtain any significant results by using the spreadsheet method. In addition we all know baseball is all about pitching and streaks.

    In answer to your other questions as to what I use for baseball, I solely use sportrends baseball software and had very good results for many years. Last year I hit well into the 60% range and there were some years even higher then that . I know your going to ask me how many units did I win. Well I dont know. The way I use money management is as follows: Lets say I always wager $100/game if the line is 110. Well if the money line is 200, Ill wager only $50. Yes I know I will only win half, but Ill only lose what I normally wager. Of course the amount of my wager depends on the money line. I dont know if I am confusing anyone. Again this is my crazy money management system which I am sure many of you think is outrageous.

    Finally I know sportrends uses a pitching and team power rating system. They kind of explained it to me a few years ago but again I am thick headed and got lost. Last year I asked them if they would give it to me and the answer was no. Maybe this year they will change their minds. As many of you know by now I am always preaching using as many different systems that can help you win and I sure would like to have this system.

    Anyway thats it.
    Comment
    • FORMULA FORTE
      SBR Hustler
      • 01-20-09
      • 52

      #667
      formula, what do you think about pho +10 against lakers? base on your analysis. with or without NASH.
      I need your opinion regarding this. thank you!
      Comment
      • Tommygunn
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-26-09
        • 669

        #668
        How come you say to stay away from double digit spreads? If a spread starts at 9.5 then moves to 11.5 before game time and increases your differential aren't you getting a better deal? For example Phoenix tonight
        Comment
        • peterpan19
          Restricted User
          • 11-02-08
          • 3377

          #669
          tommygunn
          experience, dd spreads only hit like 50 % in the past and I dont think it was any different this year, if I have time I might check it for the last month but right now I am busy

          edit:
          ok just went back 1.5 month or so and came up with something like 1-9 when their was a dd spread, most of the time it was when a really bad team played and they lost huge

          no idea why it is so, but thats why it is a filter to the system and as long as it works we should stick with it
          Comment
          • Tommygunn
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 02-26-09
            • 669

            #670
            any idea why that is? It just dosn't make sense to me if it increases your differential. Thank you by the way. Used your system for the first time last night. Great night to start. Made lots of bucks. I know not all nights will
            turn out like that but going to stick with your system. Just makes a lot of sense.
            Comment
            • Formulawiz
              Restricted User
              • 01-12-09
              • 1589

              #671
              Todays Plays

              CLE - 3 or < to pick, otherwise opposite play with sportrends PR. Right now at -3.5 and no play.
              Comment
              • Formulawiz
                Restricted User
                • 01-12-09
                • 1589

                #672
                Todays Plays

                No plays yesterday, sportrends PR play on HOU was opposite our system play of CLE
                YTD 72-46=61%

                Based on early lines
                MIL + 5 or >
                MIA + 4.5 or >
                POR - 5 or <
                LAK - 2.5 or <
                CLE - 3.5 or <
                Comment
                • Tommygunn
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-26-09
                  • 669

                  #673
                  Using home, Away power rankings what about:

                  chi -9.5 <
                  mia +3>

                  As well aren't LAC and Golden State good buys since they have a lower higher power ranking and are giving points?
                  Comment
                  • peterpan19
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-02-08
                    • 3377

                    #674
                    team with the higher PR always has to lay points and cant get points like LAC, so thats a no play

                    I think MIA is a play too but lets wait for what formula officially says
                    Comment
                    • Tommygunn
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-26-09
                      • 669

                      #675
                      Even with Overall P.R Clippers have higher rating then Sac but are getting +2 right now.

                      Should I only use Overall. Or is Home Away PR better indicator of outcomes?

                      As well if you use home vs away rankings Chicago's a great pick @ -5 right now. Isn't it?
                      Comment
                      • Formulawiz
                        Restricted User
                        • 01-12-09
                        • 1589

                        #676
                        Todays Plays

                        Yesterday our system went 2-2
                        YTD 74-48=60.7%

                        Too bad CLE line went to - 4

                        Based on early lines
                        ORL - 3.5 or <
                        NYK + 4 or >
                        HOU - 1.5 or < does not look like a play.
                        CHA - 4 or <
                        Comment
                        • FORMULA FORTE
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 01-20-09
                          • 52

                          #677
                          HOU - 1.5 or < @ pick no play - why did you say no play with HOU?
                          Comment
                          • peterpan19
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-02-08
                            • 3377

                            #678
                            if is a pk -> no play, better team has to lay points
                            Comment
                            • Formulawiz
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 1589

                              #679
                              Todays NBA Plays

                              Yesterday our system went 3-0
                              YTD 77-48=61.6%

                              Yesterday sportrends PR plays went 2-0 and you would have picked up another winner with MIL.

                              Based on early lines
                              CLE - 5.5 or < sportrends PR has an opposite play on NJ. I will not play this game.
                              DEN -2 or <
                              TOR + 6 or >

                              I am being bombarded with qusetions as how to use sportrends NBA PR's. Use the H/A method, add 3 points for HCA and use the 2 point overaly.
                              Comment
                              • sqvirrel
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 01-19-09
                                • 74

                                #680
                                Be careful with Toronto. Not sure exactly how your spreadsheet works but they are still sorting themselves out after the Marion deal and Mitchell firing. They are not the same team that accumulated all the data.
                                Comment
                                • suckatmyjob
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-12-09
                                  • 785

                                  #681
                                  what do you mean 2 pt overlay? ok say Home team is 110 and away is 90 so that means home team should be favor by -20? then what do i do with 2 pt overlay?

                                  also is it better to use the Overall PR or just the H/A

                                  thanks
                                  Comment
                                  • suckatmyjob
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-12-09
                                    • 785

                                    #682
                                    cle 104 - atl (101+3) = 0 isnt that a pick?
                                    toronto 97 - dallas 104 = - 7 dallas?
                                    Comment
                                    • Formulawiz
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 1589

                                      #683
                                      Originally posted by suckatmyjob
                                      cle 104 - atl (101+3) = 0 isnt that a pick?
                                      toronto 97 - dallas 104 = - 7 dallas?
                                      I assume your talking about sportrends PR's.
                                      CLE 104 - ATL 101+ 3 + 3.5 = 104 - 107.5 = ATL + 3.5 which is outside the 2 point overlay and is a play for ATL. Since our system PR picks CLE this becomes an opposite play so I will stay away from game. CLE line would have to drop to -2 for sportrends play to drop out and our system play kicks in. This aint happening.

                                      DAL 101 + 3 -TOR 97 + 6.5 = 104 - 103.5. Inside the 2 point overlay and no play.
                                      Your forgetting about the line.
                                      Comment
                                      • Slate
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-28-08
                                        • 1021

                                        #684
                                        GJ Formula
                                        Comment
                                        • Cranium
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 09-05-08
                                          • 363

                                          #685
                                          Wiz,
                                          Thanks for posting the plays Wiz!

                                          Good luck today!
                                          Comment
                                          • suckatmyjob
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-12-09
                                            • 785

                                            #686
                                            thanks formula i knew i was forgettign something
                                            Comment
                                            • Formulawiz
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 1589

                                              #687
                                              Todays Plays

                                              Yesterday our system went 0-2
                                              YTD 77-50=60.6%

                                              Luckily sportrends PR's pulled us out with wins on PHO & NJN and kept us off the CLE/ATL game. Overall a 2-2 day.

                                              Todays plays based on early lines
                                              ATL - 6 or <
                                              CLE - 7.5 or <
                                              SAN - 8.5 or <
                                              Comment
                                              • capper808
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 03-02-09
                                                • 7

                                                #688
                                                Hey Formulawiz... I really appreciate all that you are doing here. I've been following your posts for a while and have been bringing in the !!!!

                                                I just joined to ask you a question...

                                                I wanted to try the Sportrends PR and I'm pretty sure I understand how to do the simple calculation. Yesterday I ended up with 6 plays: celts -9, suns +4, nets +4.5, spurs +4, GS +5.5, and hawks +4. going 3-3.

                                                You quoted just the suns, nets, and hawks as helping you. Did you play the other 3? Were the other 3 even plays or am I doing the calculations wrong?

                                                I wanted to diversify my tools that I use when capping and I really want to understand the Sportrends PR. Would it be possible for you to post the Sportrends PR plays for a couple days? That way I can cross check with my calculations and make sure I'm doing this correctly.

                                                Thanks again for all your hard work
                                                Comment
                                                • capper808
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 03-02-09
                                                  • 7

                                                  #689
                                                  Formulawiz... Here's what I got for today using Sportrends...

                                                  Clips (90 + 3 + 8) vs. Spurs (103)... advantage Spurs by 2
                                                  OKC (96 + 3 + 6) vs. Mavs (98)... advantage OKC by 7
                                                  Wiz (88 + 3 + 4) vs. Atl (98)... advantage Atl by 3

                                                  Can you (or someone else) confirm please?

                                                  Also, what if it hits the number (like Spurs above)?

                                                  As everyone else here, I'm really just trying to learn as many ways possible to help my capping. Thanks in advance for the help!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Formulawiz
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 1589

                                                    #690
                                                    Originally posted by capper808
                                                    Formulawiz... Here's what I got for today using Sportrends...

                                                    Clips (90 + 3 + 8) vs. Spurs (103)... advantage Spurs by 2
                                                    OKC (96 + 3 + 6) vs. Mavs (98)... advantage OKC by 7
                                                    Wiz (88 + 3 + 4) vs. Atl (98)... advantage Atl by 3

                                                    Can you (or someone else) confirm please?

                                                    Also, what if it hits the number (like Spurs above)?

                                                    As everyone else here, I'm really just trying to learn as many ways possible to help my capping. Thanks in advance for the help!
                                                    Your calculations are correct. You forgot the 2 point overlay. It has to be more then 2 points and SAN needs to be @-7.5 or <
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Formulawiz
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                      • 1589

                                                      #691
                                                      NBA H/A PR's

                                                      I hope you guys have been following the H/A PR's. Since DATA updated the spreadsheet and added a win/loss counter I was able to keep a record from Feb 20 to present. The H/A plays are now 17-7 = 70.8%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Tommygunn
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-26-09
                                                        • 669

                                                        #692
                                                        capper808 I got what you got. Im only a new at this too though. Formulawiz Atl and San make sense but how do you have Cle? That dosn't work with the formula.

                                                        mia( 98+3+4)=(105) Cle(104) = Mia by 1

                                                        That's only at the -4 spread right now. How are they a play at -7.5 <
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Formulawiz
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 01-12-09
                                                          • 1589

                                                          #693
                                                          Originally posted by Tommygunn
                                                          capper808 I got what you got. Im only a new at this too though. Formulawiz Atl and San make sense but how do you have Cle? That dosn't work with the formula.

                                                          mia( 98+3+4)=(105) Cle(104) = Mia by 1

                                                          That's only at the -4 spread right now. How are they a play at -7.5 <
                                                          I never said sportrends PR's had a play on either MIA or CLE. I said CLE was a play using our system.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Tommygunn
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 02-26-09
                                                            • 669

                                                            #694
                                                            Sorry, Formulawiz. My Bad. I do appreciate your help/picks. You've made me money over the last couple weeks and I know it's a pain having to answer everyone's questions.

                                                            Thanks
                                                            Comment
                                                            • capper808
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 03-02-09
                                                              • 7

                                                              #695
                                                              Formulawiz... Thanks again for the help!

                                                              Both your system and Sportrends led to some major !!!!

                                                              Do you mind if I post my calculations for Sportrends PR, like I did today, on your thread for the next couple days? I just want to make sure I'm doing it correctly.

                                                              Unfortunately, I have not been able to cash in on your H/A PR's since you stopped posting your PR sheet last week. I downloaded your spreadsheet version 7 when you posted it a while back, but had some difficulties with it. Since then, I've been swamped at work and haven't had the time to sit down and figure out my problem.

                                                              Great job again and thanks for taking time out to help me out. I'll be looking forward to your post for tomorrow's plays.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Formulawiz
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 1589

                                                                #696
                                                                Todays NBA Plays

                                                                Yesterday our system went 3-0
                                                                YTD 80-50=61.5%

                                                                Yesterday we should have all gone 4-0 which included sportrends only play and winner on OKL. ATL dropped out as a play.

                                                                As I mentioned yesterday our H/A PR's since Feb 20 are just kicking ass. It won again last night with a play on SAN. Since that date it is 18-7=72%. As I mentioned in several earlier posts the H/A PR's do not generate many games and I use them for confirmation and additional plays.

                                                                Based on early lines today.
                                                                TOR + 8 or >
                                                                IND - 5.5 or <
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jholl
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 09-02-08
                                                                  • 151

                                                                  #697
                                                                  at least your system is producing actual plays , i will bet these tonite, and check it
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • overdose.fR
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 02-11-09
                                                                    • 72

                                                                    #698
                                                                    why lakers is not a play?

                                                                    Lakers: 108.5 + 3 = 111.5
                                                                    Memphis: 93.1 + 15= 108.1

                                                                    111.5 - 108.1 = 3.4

                                                                    according to sporttrends, lakers is a play tonight

                                                                    thanks for reply
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • capper808
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 03-02-09
                                                                      • 7

                                                                      #699
                                                                      Formulawiz, here's what I got from Sportrends today. Can you verify quickly? Thanks!

                                                                      Magic (105+3-7) vs. Suns (97)... advantage Magic by 4

                                                                      Det (94+3-3) vs. Nugs (102)... advantage Nugs by 8

                                                                      Sacto (87+3+2) vs. Indy (97)... advantage Ind by 5

                                                                      Thanks again
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • SOXROCK
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 02-23-09
                                                                        • 68

                                                                        #700
                                                                        fell behind in my paperwork. Could someone confirm these numbers for me so that i'm calculating correctly using the sportrends PR.

                                                                        Toronto 97.5 +9 (line) = 106.5
                                                                        Houston 103 +3 (home) = 106 no play

                                                                        Pacers = 99.5
                                                                        Kings 91.5 + 3 (home) +2.5(line) = 97 play Pacers ?????

                                                                        thanks
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...