New nba power rating system

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 06:47 PM

For the 7pm eastern games the only play I have is Toronto down to +3.5. nyk/wash and sa/phil is no play. Any want to confirm or check me?

eanelson · 01-16-09, 07:26 PM

I believe the NYK were a play at +3.5 according to the system. We are tracking Was -3.5 as a Rule 3 play.

For 8:00 EST plays (unless the lines change) I have:

CLE -2.5
UTA -4.5

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by eanelson

I believe the NYK were a play at -3.5 according to the system. We are tracking Was +3.5 as a Rule 3 play.

For 8:00 EST plays (unless the lines change) I have:

CLE -2.5
UTA -4.5

I got utah and cleveland but believe wash/nyk fell at -1 which is no play.

eanelson · 01-16-09, 08:18 PM

gameday - I showed a final calculation of -5.8 for the WAS/NYK game. What was your math that you got that final number?

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by eanelson

gameday - I showed a final calculation of -5.8 for the WAS/NYK game. What was your math that you got that final number?

NYK 97 - Wash 94.5 = 2.5 - 3.5 = -1

eanelson · 01-16-09, 08:55 PM

your math is wrong. If you did it that way, it would be:

NYK 97- WAS 94.5 = 2.5 + 3.5 = 6

The line is +3.5 for NYK, making them a play.

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by eanelson

your math is wrong. If you did it that way, it would be:

NYK 97- WAS 94.5 = 2.5 + 3.5 = 6

The line is +3.5 for NYK, making them a play.

I always take higher PR - lower PR and then subtract the spread. I have done that with all of them and got every game correct except this one. Why is this the exception?

eanelson · 01-16-09, 09:17 PM

This isn't an exception. If you do it your way, you add the spread for the team with the higher PR. You got all of the other ones correct b/c the team with the higher PR was the favorite (negative spread) so you could just subtract it. In this circumstance, the team with the higher PR is the dog, so you add the spread.

Just think that you always add the spread of the higher PR doing it your way. This way if they are a dog, you are covered. If they are the favorite, adding a negative number is really subtraction:

NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6
UTA/MEM Game : 102 (UTA)-93.5 (MEM) = 8.5 + [-4.5] = 4.0

Does this make sense? I hope I didn't confuse you.

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by eanelson

This isn't an exception. If you do it your way, you add the spread for the team with the higher PR. You got all of the other ones correct b/c the team with the higher PR was the favorite (negative spread) so you could just subtract it. In this circumstance, the team with the higher PR is the dog, so you add the spread.

Just think that you always add the spread of the higher PR doing it your way. This way if they are a dog, you are covered. If they are the favorite, adding a negative number is really subtraction:

NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6
UTA/MEM Game : 102 (UTA)-93.5 (MEM) = 8.5 + [-4.5] = 4.0

Does this make sense? I hope I didn't confuse you.

got you. Thanks

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 11:04 PM

think I might have messed up with the Mil/sac game. What did you all get for that game and the pick? I ended up betting Mil +1(which looks good as of now) but I think I read my calculations wrong.

gameday10 · 01-16-09, 11:11 PM

Also have 2 questions. When I use H/A PR and add 3 to the home team. Once the 3 is added and it is the higher PR do I use there spread or the teams spread that has the higher PR before the 3 added? Also, what if both PR come out to 0, how do I know to add -/+ spread?

Edit: And also is there a system for this in CBB/NHL/NFL, anything? If so, I would love to have it.

eanelson · 01-17-09, 01:36 AM

For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

System Record:
Win 21
Loss 8
72.49%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 1
Loss 1
50.00%

gameday10 · 01-17-09, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by eanelson

For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

System Record:
Win 21
Loss 8
72.49%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 1
Loss 1
50.00%

You have NY as a lose but NY/Wash was a Rule 3. So, should there not be a NY lose? Just a win in the Rule 3 column? Also, is there a system for CBB?

eanelson · 01-17-09, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by gameday10

You have NY as a lose but NY/Wash was a Rule 3. So, should there not be a NY lose? Just a win in the Rule 3 column? Also, is there a system for CBB?

NY was a lose b/c they were a system play. However, I counted WAS as a Rule 3 win ( we are just keeping track of Rule 3 plays for the mean time, not counting them in the system plays).

As far as CBB is concerned, I don't know if this system applies well or if there is another system. Formulawiz might be able to answer that.

curious · 01-17-09, 02:02 AM

Did you dudes ever actually make any plays?

I tried following all these posts but the arguing made my head explode.

Why don't you dudes just post some plays and be done with it?

I never did figure out what plays you dudes were actually on.

eanelson · 01-17-09, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by curious

I tried following all these posts but the arguing made my head explode.

Why don't you dudes just post some plays and be done with it?

I never did figure out what plays you dudes were actually on.

If you DL and use the spreadsheet that Formulawiz provided it is super easy. Either Formulawiz or I will probably be posting plays each night from here on out just to make it easier for those who don't want to bother with the spreadsheet.

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by eanelson

For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

System Record:
Win 21
Loss 8
72.49%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 1
Loss 1
50.00%

NYK was not a play. Rule #3 was in effect. WAS lower PR then NYK and Laying points so WAS was a win in RULE 3 plays only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3

Therefore wins 21, losses 7
rule 3 plays 1 win and 1 loss

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by eanelson

NY was a lose b/c they were a system play. However, I counted WAS as a Rule 3 win ( we are just keeping track of Rule 3 plays for the mean time, not counting them in the system plays).

As far as CBB is concerned, I don't know if this system applies well or if there is another system. Formulawiz might be able to answer that.

Yes I have the same program in CBB but the entire schedule is not in it and it needs some work. I can post the PR chart.

eanelson · 01-17-09, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

NYK was not a play. Rule #3 was in effect. WAS lower PR then NYK and Laying points so WAS was a win in RULE 3 plays only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference.

Therefore wins 21, losses 7
rule 3 plays 1 win and 1 loss

No, NYK was a system play. WAS was a Rule 3 play. I counted both.

NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6

that is the math for why NYK was a system play.

EDIT: I think for the purposes of accuracy, we should count all normal system plays and keep track of anything else on the side. What do you think?

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by eanelson

No, NYK was a system play. WAS was a Rule 3 play. I counted both.

NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6

that is the math for why NYK was a system play.

EDIT: I think for the purposes of accuracy, we should count all normal system plays and keep track of anything else on the side. What do you think?

NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule #3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
Lets keep the regular plays separate.

Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss

eanelson · 01-17-09, 06:06 AM

Fair enough. 21-7 it is.

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 06:09 AM

Todays NBA PR's

I used the exact PR value so you wont have to round up or down. There is too much confusion.

Attached Files

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 06:29 AM

Todays CBB PR chart

I am not sure if the college PR's belongs in this thread but for now lets leave it here. The rules for college are exactly the same as the pro's. Only one change
Add 3 points to the home team for HCA.
Make sure you have at least 2 games for H/A for team matchups because the PR will be weighed to heavily one way. If this occurs pass the game. EX: ARK only 1 game on the road. I would not play ARK in a matchup now if they are on the road.
Lets monitor regular plays separately from rule #3 plays for now as we do in the pro's.
I find in college you will have quite a bit more Rule #3 situations. Just watch and monitor them.

I categorized the teams in alphabetical order. Its easier to find the teams this way. This is a pain because I had to create 4 separate files.
I find there are at least 12 rule 3 scenarios in college so lets monitor them separetly but not play them.

Attached Files

jtnguyen79 · 01-17-09, 08:53 AM

how about one person just do picks on college and one just post on nba? or just post picks for both in same chat.

Also is the record since you started posting or this included a few games before your post?

I still think record needs to be adjusted to when you posted on the board then so far it's only 1 win more than a loss

NBA Hero · 01-17-09, 09:48 AM

how to come up with the final (home and away) PR?

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 10:33 AM

NBA plays today

Early lines indicate plays on:
BOS -6.5
POR - 2.5
NO - 2.5
MIL - 3

DEN and DAL rule #3. keep record

gameday10 · 01-17-09, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule #3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
Lets keep the regular plays separate.

Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss

That is what I said. I do not know how he got NY. It is all good though.

gameday10 · 01-17-09, 01:16 PM

edit...nothing

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by gameday10

edit...nothing

You need to go back to page 1 to download the excel spreadsheet

eanelson · 01-17-09, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by gameday10

That is what I said. I do not know how he got NY. It is all good though.

You said NYK wasn't a play because of the math, which wasn't the case. The math was fine, we just decided that we wouldn't make picks where one team fall under the rule 3 category official.

Plu$Money · 01-17-09, 01:46 PM

what time will the official plays be posted?? I have no idea how to work this spreadsheet

gameday10 · 01-17-09, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule#3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
Lets keep the regular plays separate.

Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss

I had WAS also as the play, not NYK.

Originally posted by eanelson

You said NYK wasn't a play because of the math, which wasn't the case. The math was fine, we just decided that we wouldn't make picks where one team fall under the rule 3 category official.

gameday10 · 01-17-09, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

You need to go back to page 1 to download the excel spreadsheet

Am I not seeing something? I can't seem to find the College BB spreadsheet posted for d/l in this thread? If it is can someone point me to it.

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Plu$Money

what time will the official plays be posted?? I have no idea how to work this spreadsheet

Please dont confuse everyone with your record. We have eanelson keeping the official record
Thanks

Formulawiz · 01-17-09, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by gameday10

Am I not seeing something? I can't seem to find the College BB spreadsheet posted for d/l in this thread? If it is can someone point me to it.

The college spreadsheet is not ready yet. It will have to be worked on after the NBA gets updated. In the meanwhile I uploaded the College hoop PR chart