New nba power rating system

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  • gameday10
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-16-09
    • 601

    #106
    For the 7pm eastern games the only play I have is Toronto down to +3.5. nyk/wash and sa/phil is no play. Any want to confirm or check me?
    Comment
    • eanelson
      SBR Hustler
      • 12-23-08
      • 86

      #107
      I believe the NYK were a play at +3.5 according to the system. We are tracking Was -3.5 as a Rule 3 play.

      For 8:00 EST plays (unless the lines change) I have:

      CLE -2.5
      UTA -4.5
      Comment
      • gameday10
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-16-09
        • 601

        #108
        Originally posted by eanelson
        I believe the NYK were a play at -3.5 according to the system. We are tracking Was +3.5 as a Rule 3 play.

        For 8:00 EST plays (unless the lines change) I have:

        CLE -2.5
        UTA -4.5
        I got utah and cleveland but believe wash/nyk fell at -1 which is no play.
        Comment
        • eanelson
          SBR Hustler
          • 12-23-08
          • 86

          #109
          gameday - I showed a final calculation of -5.8 for the WAS/NYK game. What was your math that you got that final number?
          Comment
          • gameday10
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-16-09
            • 601

            #110
            Originally posted by eanelson
            gameday - I showed a final calculation of -5.8 for the WAS/NYK game. What was your math that you got that final number?
            NYK 97 - Wash 94.5 = 2.5 - 3.5 = -1
            Comment
            • eanelson
              SBR Hustler
              • 12-23-08
              • 86

              #111
              your math is wrong. If you did it that way, it would be:

              NYK 97- WAS 94.5 = 2.5 + 3.5 = 6

              The line is +3.5 for NYK, making them a play.
              Comment
              • gameday10
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 01-16-09
                • 601

                #112
                Originally posted by eanelson
                your math is wrong. If you did it that way, it would be:

                NYK 97- WAS 94.5 = 2.5 + 3.5 = 6

                The line is +3.5 for NYK, making them a play.
                I always take higher PR - lower PR and then subtract the spread. I have done that with all of them and got every game correct except this one. Why is this the exception?
                Comment
                • eanelson
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 12-23-08
                  • 86

                  #113
                  This isn't an exception. If you do it your way, you add the spread for the team with the higher PR. You got all of the other ones correct b/c the team with the higher PR was the favorite (negative spread) so you could just subtract it. In this circumstance, the team with the higher PR is the dog, so you add the spread.

                  Just think that you always add the spread of the higher PR doing it your way. This way if they are a dog, you are covered. If they are the favorite, adding a negative number is really subtraction:

                  NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6
                  UTA/MEM Game : 102 (UTA)-93.5 (MEM) = 8.5 + [-4.5] = 4.0

                  Does this make sense? I hope I didn't confuse you.
                  Comment
                  • gameday10
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 01-16-09
                    • 601

                    #114
                    Originally posted by eanelson
                    This isn't an exception. If you do it your way, you add the spread for the team with the higher PR. You got all of the other ones correct b/c the team with the higher PR was the favorite (negative spread) so you could just subtract it. In this circumstance, the team with the higher PR is the dog, so you add the spread.

                    Just think that you always add the spread of the higher PR doing it your way. This way if they are a dog, you are covered. If they are the favorite, adding a negative number is really subtraction:

                    NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6
                    UTA/MEM Game : 102 (UTA)-93.5 (MEM) = 8.5 + [-4.5] = 4.0

                    Does this make sense? I hope I didn't confuse you.
                    got you. Thanks
                    Comment
                    • gameday10
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 01-16-09
                      • 601

                      #115
                      think I might have messed up with the Mil/sac game. What did you all get for that game and the pick? I ended up betting Mil +1(which looks good as of now) but I think I read my calculations wrong.
                      Comment
                      • gameday10
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-16-09
                        • 601

                        #116
                        Also have 2 questions. When I use H/A PR and add 3 to the home team. Once the 3 is added and it is the higher PR do I use there spread or the teams spread that has the higher PR before the 3 added? Also, what if both PR come out to 0, how do I know to add -/+ spread?

                        Edit: And also is there a system for this in CBB/NHL/NFL, anything? If so, I would love to have it.
                        Comment
                        • eanelson
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 12-23-08
                          • 86

                          #117
                          For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

                          If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

                          As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

                          System Record:
                          Win 21
                          Loss 8
                          72.49%

                          Rule 3 Plays:
                          Win 1
                          Loss 1
                          50.00%
                          Comment
                          • gameday10
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-16-09
                            • 601

                            #118
                            Originally posted by eanelson
                            For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

                            If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

                            As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

                            System Record:
                            Win 21
                            Loss 8
                            72.49%

                            Rule 3 Plays:
                            Win 1
                            Loss 1
                            50.00%
                            You have NY as a lose but NY/Wash was a Rule 3. So, should there not be a NY lose? Just a win in the Rule 3 column? Also, is there a system for CBB?
                            Comment
                            • eanelson
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 12-23-08
                              • 86

                              #119
                              Originally posted by gameday10
                              You have NY as a lose but NY/Wash was a Rule 3. So, should there not be a NY lose? Just a win in the Rule 3 column? Also, is there a system for CBB?
                              NY was a lose b/c they were a system play. However, I counted WAS as a Rule 3 win ( we are just keeping track of Rule 3 plays for the mean time, not counting them in the system plays).

                              As far as CBB is concerned, I don't know if this system applies well or if there is another system. Formulawiz might be able to answer that.
                              Comment
                              • curious
                                Restricted User
                                • 07-20-07
                                • 9093

                                #120
                                Did you dudes ever actually make any plays?

                                I tried following all these posts but the arguing made my head explode.

                                Why don't you dudes just post some plays and be done with it?

                                I never did figure out what plays you dudes were actually on.
                                Comment
                                • eanelson
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 12-23-08
                                  • 86

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by curious
                                  I tried following all these posts but the arguing made my head explode.

                                  Why don't you dudes just post some plays and be done with it?

                                  I never did figure out what plays you dudes were actually on.
                                  If you DL and use the spreadsheet that Formulawiz provided it is super easy. Either Formulawiz or I will probably be posting plays each night from here on out just to make it easier for those who don't want to bother with the spreadsheet.
                                  Comment
                                  • Formulawiz
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 01-12-09
                                    • 1589

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by eanelson
                                    For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

                                    If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

                                    As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

                                    System Record:
                                    Win 21
                                    Loss 8
                                    72.49%

                                    Rule 3 Plays:
                                    Win 1
                                    Loss 1
                                    50.00%
                                    NYK was not a play. Rule #3 was in effect. WAS lower PR then NYK and Laying points so WAS was a win in RULE 3 plays only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3

                                    Therefore wins 21, losses 7
                                    rule 3 plays 1 win and 1 loss
                                    Comment
                                    • Formulawiz
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 1589

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by eanelson
                                      NY was a lose b/c they were a system play. However, I counted WAS as a Rule 3 win ( we are just keeping track of Rule 3 plays for the mean time, not counting them in the system plays).

                                      As far as CBB is concerned, I don't know if this system applies well or if there is another system. Formulawiz might be able to answer that.
                                      Yes I have the same program in CBB but the entire schedule is not in it and it needs some work. I can post the PR chart.
                                      Comment
                                      • eanelson
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 12-23-08
                                        • 86

                                        #124
                                        Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                        NYK was not a play. Rule #3 was in effect. WAS lower PR then NYK and Laying points so WAS was a win in RULE 3 plays only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference.

                                        Therefore wins 21, losses 7
                                        rule 3 plays 1 win and 1 loss
                                        No, NYK was a system play. WAS was a Rule 3 play. I counted both.

                                        NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6

                                        that is the math for why NYK was a system play.

                                        EDIT: I think for the purposes of accuracy, we should count all normal system plays and keep track of anything else on the side. What do you think?
                                        Comment
                                        • Formulawiz
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 01-12-09
                                          • 1589

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by eanelson
                                          No, NYK was a system play. WAS was a Rule 3 play. I counted both.

                                          NYK/WAS Game : 97 (NYK)-94.5 (WAS) = 2.5 + [+3.5] = 6

                                          that is the math for why NYK was a system play.

                                          EDIT: I think for the purposes of accuracy, we should count all normal system plays and keep track of anything else on the side. What do you think?
                                          NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule #3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
                                          Lets keep the regular plays separate.

                                          Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
                                          rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss
                                          Comment
                                          • eanelson
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 12-23-08
                                            • 86

                                            #126
                                            Fair enough. 21-7 it is.
                                            Comment
                                            • Formulawiz
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 1589

                                              #127
                                              Todays NBA PR's

                                              I used the exact PR value so you wont have to round up or down. There is too much confusion.
                                              Attached Files
                                              Comment
                                              • Formulawiz
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 01-12-09
                                                • 1589

                                                #128
                                                Todays CBB PR chart

                                                I am not sure if the college PR's belongs in this thread but for now lets leave it here. The rules for college are exactly the same as the pro's. Only one change
                                                Add 3 points to the home team for HCA.
                                                Make sure you have at least 2 games for H/A for team matchups because the PR will be weighed to heavily one way. If this occurs pass the game. EX: ARK only 1 game on the road. I would not play ARK in a matchup now if they are on the road.
                                                Lets monitor regular plays separately from rule #3 plays for now as we do in the pro's.
                                                I find in college you will have quite a bit more Rule #3 situations. Just watch and monitor them.

                                                I categorized the teams in alphabetical order. Its easier to find the teams this way. This is a pain because I had to create 4 separate files.
                                                I find there are at least 12 rule 3 scenarios in college so lets monitor them separetly but not play them.
                                                Attached Files
                                                Comment
                                                • jtnguyen79
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-26-07
                                                  • 730

                                                  #129
                                                  how about one person just do picks on college and one just post on nba? or just post picks for both in same chat.

                                                  Also is the record since you started posting or this included a few games before your post?

                                                  I still think record needs to be adjusted to when you posted on the board then so far it's only 1 win more than a loss
                                                  Comment
                                                  • NBA Hero
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-05-08
                                                    • 1886

                                                    #130
                                                    how to come up with the final (home and away) PR?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Formulawiz
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                      • 1589

                                                      #131
                                                      NBA plays today

                                                      Early lines indicate plays on:
                                                      BOS -6.5
                                                      POR - 2.5
                                                      NO - 2.5
                                                      MIL - 3

                                                      DEN and DAL rule #3. keep record
                                                      Comment
                                                      • gameday10
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-16-09
                                                        • 601

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                                        NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule #3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
                                                        Lets keep the regular plays separate.

                                                        Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
                                                        rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss
                                                        That is what I said. I do not know how he got NY. It is all good though.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gameday10
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-16-09
                                                          • 601

                                                          #133
                                                          edit...nothing
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Formulawiz
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 1589

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by gameday10
                                                            edit...nothing
                                                            You need to go back to page 1 to download the excel spreadsheet
                                                            Comment
                                                            • eanelson
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 12-23-08
                                                              • 86

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by gameday10
                                                              That is what I said. I do not know how he got NY. It is all good though.
                                                              You said NYK wasn't a play because of the math, which wasn't the case. The math was fine, we just decided that we wouldn't make picks where one team fall under the rule 3 category official.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Plu$Money
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 10-28-08
                                                                • 395

                                                                #136
                                                                what time will the official plays be posted?? I have no idea how to work this spreadsheet
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gameday10
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 01-16-09
                                                                  • 601

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                                                  NYK fell under Rule #3 yesterday and you should not have played it only monitored it for rule #3 win/loss record only. Lets get this straight we are monitoring rule 3 plays only for future reference. Your not suppose to play them. The system went 4-2 last night. UTA, CLE, MIL, ORL wins and TOR, ATL loss. Not 4-3. If anything you should have played WAS not NYK under rule#3. Therefore we have a win under the Rule #3 win column
                                                                  Lets keep the regular plays separate.

                                                                  Therefore regular plays are wins 21, losses 7
                                                                  rule 3 plays are 1 win and 1 loss
                                                                  I had WAS also as the play, not NYK.

                                                                  Originally posted by eanelson
                                                                  You said NYK wasn't a play because of the math, which wasn't the case. The math was fine, we just decided that we wouldn't make picks where one team fall under the rule 3 category official.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • gameday10
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-16-09
                                                                    • 601

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                                                    You need to go back to page 1 to download the excel spreadsheet
                                                                    Am I not seeing something? I can't seem to find the College BB spreadsheet posted for d/l in this thread? If it is can someone point me to it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Formulawiz
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                                      • 1589

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Originally posted by Plu$Money
                                                                      what time will the official plays be posted?? I have no idea how to work this spreadsheet
                                                                      Please dont confuse everyone with your record. We have eanelson keeping the official record
                                                                      Thanks
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Formulawiz
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 1589

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by gameday10
                                                                        Am I not seeing something? I can't seem to find the College BB spreadsheet posted for d/l in this thread? If it is can someone point me to it.
                                                                        The college spreadsheet is not ready yet. It will have to be worked on after the NBA gets updated. In the meanwhile I uploaded the College hoop PR chart
                                                                        Comment
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