New nba power rating system

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  • eanelson
    SBR Hustler
    • 12-23-08
    • 86

    #36
    Originally posted by willpies
    I dont get this at all someone show a calculation

    Lets use tonight's game between Utah and Oklahoma City as an example:

    Utah's PR = 102.7
    Oklahoma City's PR = 92.3
    Line = -5.5

    Subtract the lesser PR from the greater one : 102.7-92.3 = 10.40
    Add the line to this : 10.40+(-5.5) = 4.90

    Since this number is great than 2, it is a play. If you were to go through this method, and you get a value less than -2, then you play the other team ATS.
    Comment
    • Meestermike
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-21-06
      • 329

      #37
      I have attached a working excel file for anyone who wishes to download it. This is for anyone who may just be starting out and needs information.
      It uses SBR's feed from Statfox and a schedule I find useful from another site.

      It contains a current season schedule, workable data sheets etc.

      All will update automatically each time you open the file via web queries.
      Attached Files
      Comment
      • eanelson
        SBR Hustler
        • 12-23-08
        • 86

        #38
        Mediocre start, but I have certainly seen worse. Lets hope to get some winners for tomorrow!

        System Record:


        Win 3
        Loss 3
        50.00%
        Comment
        • Formulawiz
          Restricted User
          • 01-12-09
          • 1589

          #39
          Originally posted by eanelson
          Mediocre start, but I have certainly seen worse. Lets hope to get some winners for tomorrow!

          System Record:

          Win 3
          Loss 3
          50.00%
          Look at post # 31. I did not tell you to play SAN and we should watch these scenarios when they occur and keep a side record for them to see how they do. My original rules said:
          3. At times you will find the power rating for a home team is less then the away teams and the home team is laying points. I have found over the years that your better off taking the home team with the lower power rating. Again you might want to keep an eye on this scenario when it comes up.
          Therfore the system went 3-2 yesterday. Over the past 4 days it is 3-2, 4-0, 6-0 and 3-2 for a total of 16-4. Ill put the plays up around 6:00 pm est for now.
          Comment
          • Formulawiz
            Restricted User
            • 01-12-09
            • 1589

            #40
            Originally posted by eanelson
            Lets use tonight's game between Utah and Oklahoma City as an example:

            Utah's PR = 102.7
            Oklahoma City's PR = 92.3
            Line = -5.5

            Subtract the lesser PR from the greater one : 102.7-92.3 = 10.40
            Add the line to this : 10.40+(-5.5) = 4.90

            Since this number is great than 2, it is a play. If you were to go through this method, and you get a value less than -2, then you play the other team ATS.
            I have mentioned several times to round off up or down. Lets get this correct. UTA 102.5 - OKL 92.5 = 10 - 5.5 = 4.5
            Comment
            • Formulawiz
              Restricted User
              • 01-12-09
              • 1589

              #41
              1/15/09 NBA PR Chart

              Here is todays NBA Power Ratings. As you can see the PR's move very slowly. Guys let me make the plays in the beginning so there is no confusion as yesterday and then someone can take over.
              Attached Files
              Comment
              • willpies
                SBR High Roller
                • 12-18-08
                • 128

                #42
                theres two game lines up for tomoz
                Comment
                • NBA Hero
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-05-08
                  • 1886

                  #43
                  just post the play/s if there is one for tom, as early as you can.

                  for those who understand the formula.

                  is chi-cavs, phoe-den, port-NJ , a play or not
                  Comment
                  • Formulawiz
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-12-09
                    • 1589

                    #44
                    Originally posted by NBA Hero
                    just post the play/s if there is one for tom, as early as you can.

                    for those who understand the formula.

                    is chi-cavs, phoe-den, port-NJ , a play or not
                    CLE -8 looks like a play all the way up to - 9.5
                    POR -2 looks like a play up to - 4.5, but if game goes to a Pickem or NJ is Fav Rule 3 comes into play. Just keep record and watch.
                    Comment
                    • eanelson
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 12-23-08
                      • 86

                      #45
                      Forumlawiz, I have a question regarding the spreadsheet you posted. How do you enter the lines on the "statistics" sheet. Do you put in the line for the home team? For the team with the higher PR?

                      For example: would you put -9 or 9 for the line on the Cavs game tonight, and why?

                      As for the record keeping, I was just counting the Spurs play due to your rule number 3. For the purpose of consistency, we should either apply this rule or not. What do you think?d
                      Comment
                      • peterpan19
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-02-08
                        • 3377

                        #46
                        eanelson

                        you always enter the spread for the home team,
                        rigth now por and cle would be a play
                        yesterday plays were:chi, atl, mia as wins and por and utah as losses
                        sa was a special play under rule 3, which we will monitor

                        but not sure, my sheet also shows det as a play at 2.1 and was at 2.3
                        so basicly I would only play games greater than 2.5, in that case only:
                        chi, atl, mia and utah were plays yesterday ?
                        Comment
                        • Formulawiz
                          Restricted User
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 1589

                          #47
                          Originally posted by eanelson
                          Forumlawiz, I have a question regarding the spreadsheet you posted. How do you enter the lines on the "statistics" sheet. Do you put in the line for the home team? For the team with the higher PR?

                          For example: would you put -9 or 9 for the line on the Cavs game tonight, and why?

                          As for the record keeping, I was just counting the Spurs play due to your rule number 3. For the purpose of consistency, we should either apply this rule or not. What do you think?d
                          First as far as the line your always looking at the home team. So if they are a fav its -9 if dog 9. Dont put a + sign in front of number. You put this value into column E under Stats tab only.

                          As far as rule #3 I said we should keep an eye on this situation. Therefore I specifically said yesterday not to play SAN so it should not count, just keep a record of how these scenarios do. I bellieve in college hoops it works a little better.
                          Comment
                          • Formulawiz
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-12-09
                            • 1589

                            #48
                            Originally posted by peterpan19
                            eanelson

                            you always enter the spread for the home team,
                            rigth now por and cle would be a play
                            yesterday plays were:chi, atl, mia as wins and por and utah as losses
                            sa was a special play under rule 3, which we will monitor

                            but not sure, my sheet also shows det as a play at 2.1 and was at 2.3
                            so basicly I would only play games greater than 2.5, in that case only:
                            chi, atl, mia and utah were plays yesterday ?
                            This is the last time I will mention this. Make sure to round the PR's up or down. DET was 99.5 and IND was 99.5 and line was -2 IND, right on overlay, therefore no play.
                            In the spreadsheet I dont know how to round up or down and thats why your getting values such as 2.1. If anyone knows how to fix this it would be nice.
                            Comment
                            • peterpan19
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-02-08
                              • 3377

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Formulawiz
                              This is the last time I will mention this. Make sure to round the PR's up or down. DET was 99.5 and IND was 99.5 and line was -2 IND, right on overlay, therefore no play.
                              In the spreadsheet I dont know how to round up or down and thats why your getting values such as 2.1. If anyone knows how to fix this it would be nice.
                              thats why I use 2.5
                              Comment
                              • IrwinFletcher
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 11-10-08
                                • 96

                                #50
                                Wiz... are you adding HC advantage +3 to the Home team as suggested by the creator or is that supposed to be calculated in the Home/away power rating?.. As I recall the site you directed us to for explanation likes to add 3 for HCA.. therefore you would take Chi 98+3=101 v Cle 109.5 for an 8.5pt spread and it would be a no play... Denver 104+3=107 Phx 102 for a 5pt spread and a 3pt overlay making Denver a play... NJ 92+3=95 Portland 101.5 for a 6.5 pt spread and a 4pt overlay making Portland a play..

                                Thanks in advance and thanks for posting this..
                                Comment
                                • Formulawiz
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 01-12-09
                                  • 1589

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by IrwinFletcher
                                  Wiz... are you adding HC advantage +3 to the Home team as suggested by the creator or is that supposed to be calculated in the Home/away power rating?.. As I recall the site you directed us to for explanation likes to add 3 for HCA.. therefore you would take Chi 98+3=101 v Cle 109.5 for an 8.5pt spread and it would be a no play... Denver 104+3=107 Phx 102 for a 5pt spread and a 3pt overlay making Denver a play... NJ 92+3=95 Portland 101.5 for a 6.5 pt spread and a 4pt overlay making Portland a play..

                                  Thanks in advance and thanks for posting this..
                                  I am glad you asked. I use sportrends NBA software and the power ratings it generates are different as you can see from the spreadsheet we are using. Their power ratings work better with the 3 points HCA. I did not want to get into this and make it more confusing but I also look at sportrends power ratings as a confirmation and put more on the game if it agrees with this system. I believe one of my earlier posts I explained this. Also I believe I mentioned in an earlier post that if you add the 3 points for HCA with this system it limits the number of plays drastically. When I first started using this system many years ago I did use 3 points but then I stopped.
                                  By the way your calc above is incorrect. POR PR 104 - NJ PR 97 = 7 for POR, now add 3 points for NJ, we get 7 - 3 = 4, now add 2 points to NJ 4-2 = 2. POR is not a play its right on the overlay. BY the way CLE would not be a play and PHO is a play by 1 pt.
                                  Thats about it.
                                  Comment
                                  • IrwinFletcher
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 11-10-08
                                    • 96

                                    #52
                                    right on thanks for the info.. Are you using the free version or the upgrade?
                                    Comment
                                    • -*MeMpHiS*-
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-15-09
                                      • 18

                                      #53
                                      so what are today's plays?
                                      Comment
                                      • peterpan19
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-02-08
                                        • 3377

                                        #54
                                        cle and por are plays so far
                                        Comment
                                        • IrwinFletcher
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 11-10-08
                                          • 96

                                          #55
                                          Ok.. so you're using the overall PR and not the H/A PR?.. I see.. so what's with the final 2pts you added to NJ? is that the overlay?

                                          Sorry if I've missed something.

                                          edit... further, you mention that CLE is a no play where their PR is 111 and CHI's PR is 98 which is a difference of 13 with a line of 8, why a no play?.. I must be missing something..
                                          Comment
                                          • eanelson
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 12-23-08
                                            • 86

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                            First as far as the line your always looking at the home team. So if they are a fav its -9 if dog 9. Dont put a + sign in front of number. You put this value into column E under Stats tab only.

                                            As far as rule #3 I said we should keep an eye on this situation. Therefore I specifically said yesterday not to play SAN so it should not count, just keep a record of how these scenarios do. I bellieve in college hoops it works a little better.

                                            Thanks for the info on the line posting. That was kind of what I figured.

                                            My bad on the interpretation of rule 3. I thought you were making that a hard and fast thing. It makes sense to keep track on the side and see how it plays out.

                                            So as of now, the system is:

                                            System Record:
                                            Win 16
                                            Loss 4
                                            80.00%

                                            Rule 3 Plays:
                                            Win 0
                                            Loss 1
                                            00.00%
                                            Comment
                                            • Formulawiz
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 1589

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by IrwinFletcher
                                              right on thanks for the info.. Are you using the free version or the upgrade?
                                              I primarily rely on our free version but I also bought sportrends software because somtimes they are behind with posting their updated power ratings on their website. I wanted to make sure I had it available.
                                              Comment
                                              • eanelson
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 12-23-08
                                                • 86

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by -*MeMpHiS*-
                                                so what are today's plays?

                                                Formulawiz said he'll post them around 6:00 EST for a while until everyone gets the hang of it (or maybe past then, who knows).

                                                Comment
                                                • Formulawiz
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                  • 1589

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by eanelson
                                                  Thanks for the info on the line posting. That was kind of what I figured.

                                                  My bad on the interpretation of rule 3. I thought you were making that a hard and fast thing. It makes sense to keep track on the side and see how it plays out.

                                                  So as of now, the system is:

                                                  System Record:
                                                  Win 16
                                                  Loss 4
                                                  80.00%

                                                  Rule 3 Plays:
                                                  Win 0
                                                  Loss 1
                                                  00.00%
                                                  I really appreciate your keeping track.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Formulawiz
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 1589

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by IrwinFletcher
                                                    Ok.. so you're using the overall PR and not the H/A PR?.. I see.. so what's with the final 2pts you added to NJ? is that the overlay?

                                                    Sorry if I've missed something.

                                                    edit... further, you mention that CLE is a no play where their PR is 111 and CHI's PR is 98 which is a difference of 13 with a line of 8, why a no play?.. I must be missing something..
                                                    Yes it is the 2 point overlay.
                                                    And No CLE is a 110.5
                                                    CLE is a play if we dont use the 3 point for HCA. Remember I was answering your previous question.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • IrwinFletcher
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 11-10-08
                                                      • 96

                                                      #61
                                                      right.... thanks again, and I was rounding the wrong way.. Have you tracked differential btwn using the +3 for HCA vs not using it?

                                                      On another note.. Do they provide the updates?.. I just downloaded the trial version and it ends with 2005 season stats.. am i missing something?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • -*MeMpHiS*-
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 01-15-09
                                                        • 18

                                                        #62
                                                        Why don't you just avoid rule 3 plays altogether? It would leave you with the plays that have the best chances @ covering that night and in the long run?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Formulawiz
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 01-12-09
                                                          • 1589

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by Meestermike
                                                          I have attached a working excel file for anyone who wishes to download it. This is for anyone who may just be starting out and needs information.
                                                          It uses SBR's feed from Statfox and a schedule I find useful from another site.

                                                          It contains a current season schedule, workable data sheets etc.

                                                          All will update automatically each time you open the file via web queries.
                                                          Meestermike has created a real nice spreadsheet with good information. I sent Mike a message today and asked him if he could help and look over the NBA PR spreadsheet and make some important changes that would make life easier for all of us. I would like to see the spreadsheet automatically update lines and scores as his program does upon startup.
                                                          Secondly I asked him if he could automatically update the schedule at the beginning of the season so we would not have to depend on sportrends next year. Once we can do this our next step will be college hoops and college and pro football.
                                                          Mike said he would look into it and see what he can do.
                                                          If there are any other programmers or Excel gurus out there come forward and dont be shy. We all need your help.
                                                          Once we get things working the way we all like it, our next step would be to improve the programs performance with wins and losses.
                                                          Anyway there you have it
                                                          Comment
                                                          • eanelson
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 12-23-08
                                                            • 86

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by -*MeMpHiS*-
                                                            Why don't you just avoid rule 3 plays altogether? It would leave you with the plays that have the best chances @ covering that night and in the long run?

                                                            We aren't playing them as of now, just keeping track to see if it is an effective "addon" to the current system. Whats the hurt in keeping track?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Meestermike
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 11-21-06
                                                              • 329

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                                              This is the last time I will mention this. Make sure to round the PR's up or down. DET was 99.5 and IND was 99.5 and line was -2 IND, right on overlay, therefore no play.
                                                              In the spreadsheet I dont know how to round up or down and thats why your getting values such as 2.1. If anyone knows how to fix this it would be nice.
                                                              I will work away at this problem and let the forum know if and when I get around this rounding up & down problem
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jtnguyen79
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-26-07
                                                                • 730

                                                                #66
                                                                Can we avoid the records from before and just go with the 3-3 or 3-2 record since the forum was created

                                                                thanks
                                                                Comment
                                                                • eanelson
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 12-23-08
                                                                  • 86

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by jtnguyen79
                                                                  Can we avoid the records from before and just go with the 3-3 or 3-2 record since the forum was created

                                                                  thanks
                                                                  This would probably be my preference, what do you think formulawiz?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ragiche
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-09-08
                                                                    • 3110

                                                                    #68
                                                                    I want to ask everybody here.Why does the line of cle already down to -7.5? Is cle a play right now?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • eanelson
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 12-23-08
                                                                      • 86

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Ragiche - there is some RLM with that line, but according to the system it is a play. I've only seen it move down .5 pts where I bet at.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ragiche
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-09-08
                                                                        • 3110

                                                                        #70
                                                                        eanelson,

                                                                        Thanks man,need that one.Because i don't have any play right now that i can pick because of this LM.By the way besides cle do you have any games in mind for today?
                                                                        Comment
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