New nba power rating system

[Formulawiz]

Before I begin with all the rules as how to use the NBA Power Rating System I would like to mention that I did not create this system and will not take credit for it. This system was developed by Sportrends and they deserve all the credit. I would also like to mention I have used this system for many years now and its made me quite a bit of money. I don't have or keep records that would be too much work for me and my intent is to make money not keep records. So if there is someone here on this forum who has the time to keep the records it would be appreciated.
Now lets get on with the rules.
1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. Like to see what the public is doing.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line. The win/loss seems to be at 50% so I stay away. Maybe we should not rule this out and keep an eye on it.
3. Dont play any game where team with lower PR is laying pts. Keep an eye on these games.
4. Only play games where PR's in any matchup are 1 or more pts apart.
5. I have also tried adding 3 points for the HC but found it drastically limits the number of plays due to the fact these power ratings are right on and do show where the value is. Again you can experiment with it.
6. Only play games that fall outside a 2 point overlay. If you look at the HOU/LAK game last night it will be obvious to you. Always use last column "Overall PR", LAK PR was 108 - HOU PR 102.5 = LAK = 5.5 (always round up or down). Now add the line of -4, LAK becomes a 1.5. You see the value was not outside the 2 point overlay. The bookies were slick by holding the line at 4 to 4.5 and not going to 5 or more. Therefore HOU was not a play.
7. If sportrends PR's generate an opposite play, pass on game.
8. If the majority of casinos are in agreement with the same line thats what we use.
9. My feeling is that injuries are irrelevant for the following reasons. The bookies take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly anyway. We all know that the lines for a particular team would be different if a starter were out as compared if he were playing. Again look at the HOU/LAK game. HOU had 2 major starters out and was a 4 point dog. Do you really think HOU would have been a 4 point dog if all their starters played. No Way!!
Ill try to think of other things as we go along. I am sure I am missing something. Attached is the NBA Power Rating Chart for today.
By the way if you want a good explanation as how the spreadsheet works go to

http://www.sportrends.com/excel%20program.htm

[twodiiefor]

so then todays game is
lal 107.8
- sa 102.1
_________
5.7
+ 3 odds to lal
_________
8.7 not <= 2 therefore its "SURE" ==== SA???

[peterpan19]

so then todays game is
lal 107.8
- sa 102.1
_________
5.7
+ 3 odds to lal
_________
8.7 not <= 2 therefore its "SURE" ==== SA???

3. At times you will find the power rating for a home team is less then the away teams and the home team is laying points. I have found over the years that your better off taking the home team with the lower power rating. Again you might want to keep an eye on this scenario when it comes up.

So I think your better off with SA,
other plays for today are Was, Atl, Mia and Por (if -1.5 or lower)

so 5 potential plays, right now, until the other lines are released, but I only see another play or two on the rest of the games

here is the calculation, i used a 2.5 pt overlay
Por 104.2 minus phi 99.9 is 4.3 minus 1.5 is 2.8 -> Por is a play at -1 or -1.5 ?

Bos 107.5 minus NJ 97.5 is 10 minus 10 is 0 -> so no play at all unless the line goes to +13 or -7 ??

NY 97.0 minus WAS 94.8 is 2.2 minus 5 is -2.8 -> so Was is a play, line might even go up, so Was is even better

Mil 101.5 minus Mia 99.6 is 1.9 minus 5 is -3.6 -> play would be Mia ?

LAL 107.8 minus 102.1 is 5.7 plus 2.5 would be 8.2 -> play would be LAL, but tahn not, bc of a better power rating and getting points

GS 95.6 minus Sac 92.1 is 3.1 minus 5.5 is -2 -> no play ?

ATL 101.4 minus Lac 93.2 is 8.2 minus 4.5 is 3.7 -> play is on ATL

possible plays:
Det 99.7 minus Ind 99.6 is 0.1 -> basicly if Ind gets more than 3 points its a play

Tor 99.3 minus Chi 97.8 is 1.5 -> Chi needs 4 pts or more to be a play

Uta 102.7 minus OKC 92.3 is 10.4 -> a play on Utah if less than -7.5 or OKC if more than 13 pts 8 but than it is DD)

NOH 104 minus Dal 100.5 is 3.5 -> NOH is good until -1 and Dal is good if more than 6 pts.

[twodiiefor]

ic i get ur point peter

[Formulawiz]

so then todays game is
lal 107.8
- sa 102.1
_________
5.7
+ 3 odds to lal
_________
8.7 not <= 2 therefore its "SURE" ==== SA???

Look at rule # 3. SAN PR 102 is less then LAK PR 108 (round up or down) yet SAN is the Fav. I would play SAN in this case. I have found over the years this scenario does better for the home team. I really dont have a win/loss record to compare it to. We can see what happens tonight.

[willpies]

this might go above 50 percent

[Formulawiz]

Make sure to round up or down. Ex: LAK 108 and SAN 102. Dont use decimals.

[peterpan19]

ok so if we round up, plays as of now (2.5 is the limit, 2 would be a no play in my view?)
Por (-1.5 or better), Was (+4.5 or better), Mia (+4.5 or better), ATL (up to -5.5) and SA (any line, as of now)

[peterpan19]

ok good describtion of the excel file, but where can we donwload it ? or will you upload it Formulawiz ?
that would be great

thx

[Formulawiz]

ok good describtion of the excel file, but where can we donwload it ? or will you upload it Formulawiz ?
that would be great

thx

The excel file is pretty big its 3,318kb I hope it can be uploaded here and I am not sure as how to do it. Can someone give me some help.

[twodiiefor]

i think i got confuse with the computation

is it away - home = ans + odds(either- or +) = final ans to compare to 2?
or fav - underdog = ans + oods(either- or +) = final ans to compare to 2?

[peterpan19]

i think i got confuse with the computation

is it away - home = +odds ?
or fav - underdog = +oods ?

I used higher minus lower power rating, and than substract the spread if it is negative for the team with the higher pr or add the spread if it is positive

if you come out with +2.5 or more the team with higher PR is a play

if you come out -2.5 or more negative than it is a play for the team with the lower PR

dont forget rule number 3, SA would be the play today

[kowalin]

i think i got confuse with the computation

is it away - home = +odds ?
or fav - underdog = +oods ?

To be honest, I am confused with the whole method. I am particularly unsure of what the "2 point overlay" means.
I am very interested in seeing the excel file once it gets uploaded.
The system does look very promising and I will be keeping an eye on it over the next few days before I throw my money on it. FYI, I put a dime on SA today at -2.5 but that was due to the influence of CK and the others that posted the reasoning of why SA is such a strong play.
Good luck

[Formulawiz]

I used higher minus lower power rating, and than substract the spread if it is negative for the team with the higher pr or add the spread if it is positive

if you come out with +2.5 or more the team with higher PR is a play

if you come out -2.5 or more negative than it is a play for the team with the lower PR

dont forget rule number 3, SA would be the play today

You guys are making a mountain out of a mole hill. Its very simple look at the team matchups, get their power ratings and then round up or down. Then just add the Line to it. If team A is the favorite you add the line to the dog's PR, if team A is the dog you add the Line to their PR. Thats it.
By the way the system went 3-2 on 1/11 and one of the losers were guess who. SAN who had the lower PR then their Opponent and was laying points. Thats why I am a little hesitant today with SAN.

[Formulawiz]

To be honest, I am confused with the whole method. I am particularly unsure of what the "2 point overlay" means.
I am very interested in seeing the excel file once it gets uploaded.
The system does look very promising and I will be keeping an eye on it over the next few days before I throw my money on it. FYI, I put a dime on SA today at -2.5 but that was due to the influence of CK and the others that posted the reasoning of why SA is such a strong play.
Good luck

Let me explain an overlay its very simple. Look at the HOU/LAK game yesterday. LAK PR 108 and HOU PR 102.5 after rounding off. Subtract the PR's and you get 108-102.5 = 5.5. This means LAK should be a 5.5 Pt Fav. LAK were laying 4. So therefore we subtract 5.5 -4 = 1.5. So you see the 1.5 is within the 2 point margin or whatever you want to call it. In order for LAK to have been a play yesterday the LAK line should have gone to -3. Take the 5.5 - 3 = 2.5. We would be outside the 2 point margin.

[eanelson]

Excel Sheet

Alright guys, I created a spreadsheet to help with calculations and to track the system.

Since I found Mundane's spreadsheet so helpful with the NBA Win % system, I modeled it after that.

This should:
1) Make calculations easier, just plug in PR's and spread and go to town
2) Detect if the spread is DD and tell you not to play
3) Tell you to check for home team w/ lower PR laying pts if spread is greater than 0. I couldn't think of a better way to do this because we aren't differentiating between home and away when doing calculations. I figured this won't come up much though, because the team with the higher PR should usually be laying pts.
4) Tell you to play selected team (team w/ higher PR) ATS if value is greater than 2, and other team ATS if value is less than -2.
5) Show all calculations - this is pretty straight forward.
6) Allow us to track the system easily using the tracking spreadsheet

If I missed anything or there is something I should add, let me know and I can make some changes. Most of this work was done by Mundane, I just re-molded his spreadsheet to fit this system and changed a few things about it.

[alittlemoresound]

holy shit.. the file doesnt work. or maybe im doing it wrong. but this seems pretty cool

[Formulawiz]

NBA Power Rating Spreadsheet

I felt guilty posting the NBA power rating spreadsheet here on the forum so I spoke with sportrends to get their permission. They had no problem with it. So here it is.
The spreadsheet has some visual basic incorporated into it which is no problem for us to run. I was able to get the NBA power rating spreadsheet from sportrends for free since I am a customer and a friend. I think we need some excel gurus here to make some changes so next year we dont have to depend on sportrends updating this excel spreadsheet or it would be too time consuming to setup and enter all the matchups for the entire season. It seems what they do is assign a number to each team name, then they convert this number to a team name. I tried screwing around with it but had no success but maybe some of you gurus can.
Also we need to put our heads together and see if we can improve this systems win/loss record. Dont get me wrong I have killed the bookies over the years but everything can be improved.
Have fun.

[jtnguyen79]

i like this guys so far the 70 percent system and now this at least we all on board trying to win money from books rather than just dog on each other picks every day

best of luck

[The General]

Good stuff guys. Hope you do well with it.

[eanelson]

Formulawiz - your spreadsheet is much better. It does take into account home and away and automatically tells you who the plays are once the line is entered in. I like it.

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz - your spreadsheet is much better. It does take into account home and away and automatically tells you who the plays are once the line is entered in. I like it.

Do you see where they assigned a team number and then reference back to it to come up with the team name. Is there a way we can rewrite this spreadsheet so we dont have to depend on sportrends every season so we can put the schedule in ourselves. As I said before I tried messing around with it and had no success.

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz - your spreadsheet is much better. It does take into account home and away and automatically tells you who the plays are once the line is entered in. I like it.

One final thought on how to use the spreadsheet. At the bottom left there are 2 tabs, stats and Ratings. To enter the scores and lines go to the Stats tab columns D thru G. Then click on the Ratings Tab scroll to the right until you get to the P column. Click in this box to make calculations. Leave the number of teams as they are unless you delete or add teams. This number should always be 1 above the number of teams you have. You can also change what date you want to go back to and make a calculation. I have it set to the beginning of this season. Whats unbelievable there is 10 years of data there. You can use the other button to go back and use all 10 years. Its not necessary though. By the way be careful when going back to a date. If there is not enough games I believe 3 games you will get an error. There has to be at least 1 game for home and one game input for away. All you have to do when getting an error is go farther back in time to get more games. Also dont enter lines under the Ratings tab. It gets the line from the Stats Tab. After the lines have been entered you can go to the Ratings tab all the way to right and scroll down to todays date and you will see the plays.
By the way make sure to save the spreadsheet after entering your data correctly otherwise you will lose everything you entered if you exit the spreadsheet.
Thats it guys now lets kick ass.

[The_Kid]

Formulawiz- Thanks for doing this. This will clear up a lot of confusion (hopefully). That other thread was just a mess. People were overthinking every little detail...

Maybe you should post plays for a couple days and explain it in detail. Guys are still trying to figure things out with this system and it would probably make it a lot easier on us all.

[SportsLockPicks]

you make things really hard to understand...you leave a lot to be desired...what is the siginificance of the +/- 2, and do you take to dog if it goes under -2? and where is the calculation for home/away?

[SportsLockPicks]

so the jazz are a play?

[alittlemoresound]

This makes sense... but what is macros security ? it has to compute the teams and totals by date... my security level is set too high, it that on my browser or a setting in excel ?

[alittlemoresound]

Utah has to be a play OK CITY has 6 wins and has been covering spreads for a few days now... **** em they are ready to melt away tonight.

Im thinking about taking jazz -3 first Q ? any thoughts

[peterpan19]

so far it looks like we have 7 plays,
ATL, WAS, CHI, MIA, POR, UTA and Spurs (rule number 3)
Por, Was and Chi are pretty close to a no play, we will have to monitor that how the line moves,
Utah, Mia and Atl are pretty safe, unless the spread move more than 2 pts or so

[MexicanStallion]

Can we get the final plays posted before game time, so we can keep track of the records. I would volunteer to keep track of the record for Formulawiz.

[Formulawiz]

Can we get the final plays posted before game time, so we can keep track of the records. I would volunteer to keep track of the record for Formulawiz.

As of right now plays are CHI +4.5, WAS must be > +4.5, POR seems to be no play now at -2, UTA -5.5, MIA + 6, ATL -4. SAN shoild be a play rule #3 but they burnt me the other night Vs ORL under the same scenario so Ill be a spectator here. Again I remind everyone wait till 10 to 15 minutes before tip off to make plays.
By the way the last 3 nights the record was 3-2, 4-0 and 6-0. This can be verified very easily by looking at my original power rating chart I posted the other day. Remember power ratings move very slowly. Also let me remind you there are times when the system does poorly, but over the years when the smoke clears I have killed them.

[eanelson]

I can keep track of the record no problem. I'll just start it at 0-0 tonight to see what happens. Sound fair enough?

[xerac]

sorry forumla posted in wrong thread my bad was reding this thread by mistake very intresting read ill have a play it tomorrow see if i undertsand it but look sound so far

[eanelson]

Wrong thread Xerac

[willpies]

I dont get this at all someone show a calculation