Leans for Thursday 12/18/08

[cocknocker]

Alright boys and girls, it's National Fade Day!

In tonight's hardwood action I am wagering with my money in a manner as if I am trying to lose it. In a play that defies conventional wisdom, I am playing the second game of Blazers Week and taking the Blazers to get the job done against the Suns, a team that they have not beaten in 11 tries. I fully expect to catch heat about this play from the board, but that's the beauty of wagering. Phoenix is a perfect 5-0 straight up andats in the last five overall against the Blazers in Oregon. The Bazers have been getting 4.5 points on average from the Suns at home, and the Suns have dusted them off winning by an average of 9.5 points in each of those 5 contests. In the words of the Missus on Tuesday when she proclaimed the same thing about Charlotte and their record of futility against the Bulls, "Enough is enough". Little brother gets the respect of big brother with a punch in the snot box.

These are not your cousin's Suns team. They are basically a brand new team with the acquisition of Jason Richardson and the trades of everybody. Whatever...They beat the Blazers already this season 102-92. And now it is time for the Blazers to atone for all of those consecutive losses. The Blazers for their part suffered TWO straight buzzer beater losses before prying the lids off of Sacramento. Phoenix has taken two straight ats on ther side of the equation too, so I expect that this will be a well played game, with no clock milking involved. Th teams have average over/under lines of 207, and average actual scores of 206.2. This combination has produced 3 unders and 2 overs. So obviously a correction was n the way. With the total line for this game set at 201.5, i give the nod to the OVER for totals players, as it is obvious by the line that the linemaker has chosen to go in another direction. We should do the same accordingly. I myself am staying with a straight wager on the side however.

Portland-3.5 (projected)

The line is -5 right now. By the time the squares get through putting up their wagers the line will drop to 4, or 4.5. When it does, I will buy a hook or a point and play this game at Portland -3.5 as advertised. They win by two or more baskets, homies. I fully expect to be the minority on this wager,


I was told that I should never play a team that is playing their first game back home after a long road trip (3 or more games out of conference), and so with that, the Spurs will pull a rabbit out of the Magic's hat. Orlando hasn't beaten the Spurs by more than 6 points at home since 2004. With the sting of the loss to New Orleans last night still stuck in their craw, they will arrive in Orlando in a foul mood. Plus I love to take the team that looses a primetime nationally televised game in their next tilt. Plus Superman is coming back for Orlando, which means minute mixing is on the way, as they attempt to get him back into th fold. There will be rust. And the Spurs don't care, they have their own concerns now. I expect that I will be the minority on this wager too. So what?Give me them points, homes!

San Antonio+4.5 (Buying a point to get over that key number and doing it right away)


NFL Football,

Colts-6.5 Neither one of these teams has swept the other since Indy did it in 2005. The Jags beat the Colts earlier this year in Indianapolis. Revenge will be sweetend by the fact that the Colts win this game and they are in the playoffs. The jags are without Fred Taylor, and the free safety has already been bought with Mafia money, and he will be out of place all night. Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison are on fruitcake alert and may or may not play. It doesn't matter. Colonel Peyton will get the job done throwing to you and me if he has to.

[SamsNCharge99]

All over orlando

[infamousdx]

So if you think POR wins by 4 points, then PHX +5 is a good play?

[Spoon]

I have other games pending, but I'll be in this thread in a bit. For the record, I'm on the Magic as expected. No suprise there, eh. You hit the intro line perfect... "National Fade Day."

[cocknocker]

infamousdx,

If playing Phoenix, i would recommend to take them at +6 and get onto the nearest key number. Portland is playing with fear in this matchup and if they get up by 10 at any time in the 2nd half, they will try to blow the lid off of the Suns fearing that they will find a way to beat them again for the 12th consecutive time. there will be no letting up for one second after that many consecutive losses. You just may see Portland's most concerted effort of the year in this game. Phoenix is to Portland what the Pistons once were to Michael Jordan's Bulls.

[lolisaiahlol]

if the line is -3.5 on orlando, would it be smart to buy a half point?

[djpremier36]

Shaq vs. Oden....Nash vs.........Steve Blake?

I like the Suns to cover

[Spoon]

if the line is -3.5 on orlando, would it be smart to buy a half point?

Depends what you're laying on the game, but yeah, I would buy that half. I actually bought it down to -2 because of the amount I wagered.

[tdotcotez]

Oden only gets 10 mins gametime and isnt really a factor, i think portlands gonna try to run this game really quick

[lolisaiahlol]

thanks man, ill get on it!!

[2qwik]

My first thoughts would be to hit Phoenix hard when they are getting 5 points but thats exactly what the linemakers want us to do. I was at the Portland/New Orleans game in Portland and that home crowd is wild. Portland was favored by 5 in that game and they covered over a team thats better than Phoenix. I will have to follow CK and let the public pound Suns and wait the line to go down to where I can take Portland. I am not a Portland fan. I was born and raised in Houston,Texas so I dont want people to think I am a Blazers homer.

[cocknocker]

lolisiahlol,

No a half point puts me squarely on 4. I want the Magic to have to beat the Spurs by 6, which seems to be the magic (no pun intended) number. The Magic have not beaten the Spurs by 6 at home since 2004. That is precisely what I want. Since being fully loaded (with Ginobili and Parker, et al) the SPurs have lost two in a row only once, and that was in Ginobili's 2nd and 3rd game back from injury when he was trying to get back into basketball shape. No such luck now. He is playing some pretty darn good basketball. San Antonio plays the Magic well, and they are 3-0 ats and straight up in the last 3 contests overall between these two clubs. Facing a fully loaded San Antonio squad after a loss is not an enviable task. I'll take the Championship caliber coach with the Hall of Fame player any day in this position catching points.

[shoebox]

Alright Spoon you got me!!!!

[Spoon]

Alright Spoon you got me!!!!

Hehe... Little backdoor basket action always does the trick. I decided to take under 69 at the half and cahed that too on top of the over 93 in the SA/HO game. What a beautiful way to end a day at the office.

[shoebox]

Yeah they cound not hit a free throw in the final two minutes or it would of been cashed. Cant complain had a very lucrative day. Well get em tomorrow. Only game I like is colts -6

[Spoon]

Here’s how I see this game… Orlando has been playing well without Dwight Howard and only lost to Phoenix by 1 point when Howard went out in the 3rd quarter. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 15-9 ATS for the season. While Howard is probable for the game, that does not necessarily mean he will continue at the same pace as he did when he went out with an injury. He will need to be worked into the game ever so slightly so it does not disrupt the flow the Magic has had over the last two games. With Howard, Orlando should be nice in this spot at home, but without Howard they should still put up a good fight and win the game. Let’s not forget, San Antonio just came off a late night lose to New Orleans and will be tired going into this game. True, Orlando has not come away with a +6 victory against the Spurs in a few years, but this is 2008 and this Orlando team is hot – especially against the spread. The only factor that disturbs me in this game is that Orlando is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday night games. I don’t like this stat, but I’m not letting this affect my play here on the magic. My personal wager experience with the Magic this season has been remarkable. Every time I placed a bet with them (other than 1 time) they covered and cashed. I expect this to happen Thursday as well. I’m all over the Magic -2

Btw, make Google useful and take a look at the matchups in this game before you pull the trigger either way.

GL

[Broncos9798]

Question to CK or the board.

I have two options for tomorrow and want to know your thoughts on better odds(I know your not into parlays and what not but still curious)

Option 1( 1 Unit to win 1.5)
Bet 1 unit to Win 1.5 units
Colts +.5
Trailblazers -.5
Spurs +8

Option 2(3 Units to win 2.7 Units)
Bet 1 Units Colts -6
Bet 1 Unit Trailblazers -5(Could buy down to 4.5)
Bet 1 Unit Spurs +4.5

I really like the Trailblazers and the Colts to at least win tomorrow. With option 1 I only risk 1 unit and depend on a fairly solid Spurs team to stay within 8.

Option 2 is the more standard method but has higher risk if multiple games turn against me.

Anybody's thoughts......is this a stupid teaser or does it have above average odds. I honestly look at it and think that it has a 50/50 chance of winning and it pays 150% percent. Thanks for your help guys.

Broncos

[cocknocker]

Okay, OG Spoon,

That's a good spin, Spoon.

Figures don't lie, liars figure. Here's what I came up with: Orlando is 3-7 staight up at home against the Spurs. They have been favored only once at home in that 10 game span, and that was as a 1 point favorite, and they promptly lost that game 107-97. True they are 5-5 ats against the Spurs at home over those 10 games but they were an underdog in 9 of them catching 4.5 points on average. The last time that Orlando covered at home as a favorite against the Spurs was 1997.


Orlando is actually a better road team than a home team. They are only 6-6 ats at home and 1-2 ats against Southwest division teams. Plus another issue that can't be overlooked is how these teams fare in games that have the type of assigned total that is present for this game. SOmetimes the total alone is a dead giveaway about which team will control the tempo. The lower the assigned total the better the Spurs play. In games where the total is set at 190 or 194.5, the Spurs are 2-0 ats, and the Magic are 2-2 ats. And get this, the Spurs are 5-2 ats against teams that average over 99.5 points. The Magic are on a 5 game ats winning streak, which is obviously why the linemaker gave them this exploratory spread. Please. They haven't been favored by that many points over San Antonio at home in 10, count em' 10 years. So any points given to San Antonio in this game is for smoke and mirrors. Trust me, the Spurs aren't tired. They had 3 days rest prior to the game against the Hornets. The flight from New Orleans to Orlando is a short one.

That stated, according to my rescoring model (with plus/minus ratio added for minute mixing with Superman), I have San Antonio winning the 1st half 51.5 to 47.9, and the game 101.1 to 92.5 as well as the rebounding 42.7 to 37, with 6 steals apiece for each side. A first half over and a 2nd half under.

But like I said, I am betting in a manner like I am trying to lose my money. When I saw this game I thought about how Orlando cashed those road tickets for me last week, and i was about t side with them until i heard that Howard was coming back coupled with San Antonio losing on a natioanlly televised game. So i went against my conventional thinking.

BTW, I have Portland winning by 7 in my rescoring model for that game

[NBA Hero]

totally correct, the orlando of 2008 is a different team from before, the same could be said about phoenix.

amare has few touches and penetration. too bad they dont design too much plays for him coz that is one of the advantage of the suns, a mobile, agile strong forward that is willing to crash the board at will compared to a soft and smooth shooting like aldridge.

the spurs will have a hard time matching up with the tall shooters of orlando, hedo and lewis. but i see that parker will have a field day penetrating and scoring inside with the limited minutes of howard if he will start

[cocknocker]

Broncos9798,

I like option#1 out of those two, but it would benefit you to play those games straight as well and shorten your teaser bet.

[cocknocker]

NBA Hero,

You forgot that Bowen puts the clamps on Hedo every single time the Spurs play the Magic. He absolutely hates Bowen. Lewis is lazy and hates to chase Ginobili through all of the picks that San Antonio sets for him. Lewis is a liability on the defensive end. The Spurs don't really have ANY defensive weaknesses. They will beat Orlando. They always do.

[strybie]

yesterday not a bad day. Just no luck I had boston -3,5

For today I go for

ORL and PHOE

Orlando plays at home and when equal team are playing each other the home court advantage is important (and also the calls from the referee)

Phoenix has more experience and for me is a more balanced team. I think Phoenix will get stronger later this season. Por has some good players, but think Stoudamire, O'neal, Nash and Richardson will be too strong for Roy, Aldridge, Fernandez and Blake. Phoenix topplayers are combining 70 ppg, Pot 4 topplayers are combining 59 ppg. Stoudamire and O'neal are the best rebounders.

I go for ORL and PHOE, almost sure I will win at least one and hope to win 2

Good luck to all and will be back later.

[Spoon]

I hope you didn’t use statistics dating back to 1997 for your model, lol. I agree with your assessment of past plays between these two clubs, however, like I stated in my previous post, Orlando is a much better team this year and matches up extremely well with the Spurs. I would have to respectfully disagree with you regarding the Spurs not being tired going into this game. While the Magic rested, the Spurs were fighting hard for a victory on national television which you and I both know took a lot out of them since the game was close at the end. I believe this game will be close too and that is why I bought it down to -2. However, Orlando wins this at home, IMO. Streaks don’t last forever so I expect Orlando to break their 13 ATS losing streak on Thursday night games tonight. This is a homecoming game for the Magic on so many levels and they will be full of confidence after coming off a 4-1 road record against a couple quality teams. They should be comfortable here being back on their home court and hopefully with their all-star player in the mix.

I rarely fade your plays as you know because I agree with most of them myself. However, those that I do fade (Miami, Lakers, Nets, and Clippers this week in particular) have worked in my favor. To be fair, you did buy that point and pushed the Clippers. Nevertheless, this is one more fade that I honestly believe will work out for my bankroll.

GL to both of us because it could always hit in the middle and we could beat the book together.

[isiah121]

CK bro, I agree with what you said about the Spurs winning, but I think the Trail Blazers won't be able to get the job done. From my research, Trail Blazers played 3 games with Phoenix (2 at home) last season, and lost all three. Sometimes I think that they're an improved team, but previously they haven't convinced me. If Orlando was able to beat them at home, then possibly can Phoenix. I also think that Blake is trash, compared to Steve Nash, so the team with the better point guard has the advantage. I know that Trail Blazers are trying to avenge their previous loss of the season to the Suns, but they are not a playoff caliber team capable of doing so. After their second loss to the Jazz (getting blown off), I just don't think the Trail Blazers can get the job done, but this is only my perspective.

One more thing, I just don't see Orlando winning this. If I'm correct, Orlando and Spurs had two meetings last season, and Orlando lost both.

[mundane]

i could start a thread but i'd rather come in here and put in my 2 cents.
im all for heathy discussions!

phoenix suns +5.5 ~ i suggest a ck move and make it 6 by buying!

catching these much points against the young blazers could be the difference for an ats win for the suns. last 3 outings were all a dud for the suns (all in december actually). i expect them to play much better on this one esp coming in knowing that they got blazers number. i see a balanced december scheduling for the suns so i dont see any look-aheads going on for them (xmas vs spurs). no listed injuries as well. sure blazers have beaten kings by 30+ pts but kings aint the suns (see suns @lal - undermanned and just wont surrender). and wasn't it just 2 games back that the blazers lost in OT to the lowly clippers? suns are coming along well finally? (4 wins last 5 games) - dd pts for all the starters last game, rested and rejuvenated shaq, jrich insertion seems to be going well and amare's shenanigans seemed to have been put under the rag (for now). to sum it all up, unyielding veterans vs young easily shaken blazers... hmmm ill take my chances with that +5.5 points! go stevie nash!

small play on this one. blazers is a streaky team. they bury teams given the chance. hopefully that doesnt happen and make it an exciting tv game for all of us!

if u see value on suns ml, a small wager wont be that crazy in my book!

just my 2 cents on this one! bol to all!

advance note to self: if suns get killed in portland, fade these koks as i believe it'll just gonna go downhill for them in the next 3-5 games ats wise!

[SEAN11]

just a quick heads up,every forum i have been too people are all over orlando in the first game.just thought id let you guys know that.i will find out what everyone is playing on the phnx game too.

[wangichu]

yesterday not a bad day. Just no luck I had boston -3,5

luck is all you had with boston... unless you want to call all the friggin' calls they get skill or soemthing... as bad as the hawks shot in that game, boston had no business being as close as they were. Granted, they executed better down the stretch, but they should have been down by double digits and had to execute to just make it close. They just get so much official love it's really retarded. I would have been friggin' pissed out of my mind if the hawks hadn't at least covered that 4 pt spread because there were just so many absurdly stupid calls for boston. I used to like pierce, but now i think he is a whiny, coddled b**** who lacks the talent to earn this kind of success on his own but has the refs in his pocket and a few good moves by his organization to buy him a winner.

anyways, enough bitterness... I love the blazers here... like CK spoke of, i'm fully aware of phoenix's dominance over them, but this is a new blazers team. They have assembled a lot of talent and have a winning team based on defense, something the suns have less of since the trade. They may be able to score more, but so will portland thanks to that trade (dishing top defenders bell and diaw), and this portland squad has done well at avenging previous losing seasons to teams that owned them in the past (ie houston and san antonio). plain and simple, the books would not have favored portland by 5 if they weren't going to cover it in light of their terrible history against the suns. The blazers are a better all around team and are poised to make a run at the conference and could put the hurt on some of the big guns in the west this year.

PORT -4 (could even make it there if i just leave it and wait)

[Hunter07]

Great work ck. Fantastic last 3 days so hoping to keep the run going!

I'm all over Portland too and will also be waiting for the line to hopefully drop.

But I'm sticking with Orlando to cover @ home vs Spurs. They've been very good to me over the last few weeks so will keep with 'em!

BOL.

[hunt3rtheone]

+ 3,5 on san antonio spurs, they trick me yesterday but now i think will manage to make a good show against orlando ! spurs all the way

[cocknocker]

OG Spoon,

In your last post you indicated that this is a new Orlando squad this year.... One question...Who on Orlando is different this year that has had an impact on their lineup, and who on San Antonio is new there that has had an impact on their lineup? I cetainly know a few things about NBA, and I am scratching my head trying to figue out what is so new about this Orlando squad over the Orlando Squad from last year. I'll tell you, they sure look like the same people to me.

And since they are the same people, with the same tendencies, it is possible that they will have the same difficulties against San Antonio. Mr. Clamps will be in Hedo's back pocket all night long as usual, and Rashard will get his points, but give Ginobili more as usual, and Tim and Dwight will both get theirs, which leaves Parker to be guarded by Nelson. Can you say mismatch?

But I made these plays with the intention of having the entire board fade me. If I see that type of thing, then I'll know that I am onto something. I WANT everyone to participate in National Fade Day and go the other way on these picks, so that no one will be upset when my picks lose. I am determined to give the books my money with these picks, lol! They make absolutely no sense...

BTW, the line is already down to 3 with 56% of bettors on Orlando. All of which is great for me as I have San Antonio+4.5. Sometimes it is NOT advantageous to wait for the line movements. Gotta do your homework and make your pcik early if ya smell a fishy line.

[natelli1]

NBA Hero,

You forgot that Bowen puts the clamps on Hedo every single time the Spurs play the Magic. He absolutely hates Bowen. Lewis is lazy and hates to chase Ginobili through all of the picks that San Antonio sets for him. Lewis is a liability on the defensive end. The Spurs don't really have ANY defensive weaknesses. They will beat Orlando. They always do.

bowen has not been playing the mintues he has in passed years im sure if hedo is killing them then he will come in and try to shut him down, and as for lewis, he will NOT be covering ginobili and if he is van gundy shud get slapped ..
howard - duncan
lewis-bonner
turk-finley
bogans - ginobili
nelson-parker

[BmoreBucco]

CK,

Quick question. I'm getting the Spurs at +2, should I grab them now or any chance you think it goes back the other way?

[cocknocker]

BmoreBucco,

If you look at my post a few above this one, I had the Spurs winning this game outright by about 9 points. In my opinion, ANY points given to the Spurs is too many. But who am I? I am to be faded today...This is Blazers Week, and today is National Fade CK Day! And BTW the Orlando line is now down to Orlando-2 with a split 50/50 consensus. Not looking so good for Orlando backers

[BmoreBucco]

Yeah I get the fade thing, but I hate to disappoint you, but I'm sold. Would you buy a half point to get to +2.5 and above the key number, even though you have them winning by more?

[cocknocker]

BmoreBucco,

Of course. ALWAYS stay off of the key numbers. Those are the numbers that the linemaker and the books are trying to steer you towards. Playing by their rules will make -110 players have a 50% winning percentage at best in the long run.