Leans for Saturday 12/13/08

[BigMoneyMan]

God dammit. I tool Butler +8 and then bet against myself. That is why I post BEFORE I read the thread not after. Oh well looks like 3-0-1 so far.

[tdotcotez]

god dammnitttt **** i shoulda never played these early CBB games...

[cocknocker]

Yeah maddog,

I took the Magic moneyline for +100 last night. They almost pulled it out for me, but Dwight had an injury in the third quarter and did not return.

[showtime2000]

2 highly regarded picks that I hope I have money to play, 1 is the jets tomorrow over buffalo, and the 5 star play is florida over vancouver tomorrow(NHL)

We are all waiting on Florida tomorrow!!!!! Long road trip for Vancouver ending with a big divison game tonight and then having to play the Panthers who've been waiting for them!

Been waiting for this all week. Add this with CK's PC play and we will be jugging back Molson's!

[tdotcotez]

georgetown aint shit

[kcjhawk]

CK,
I don't think I would bet them second half..... They are playing the worst I've seen them all year. Self doesn't know what to do.....too many young players.

[Spoon]

If Kansas goes in at the break down by double digits, I would have to make a play for them in the 2nd half. UMass doesn't seem to have the talent level to sustain a lead of hat type, especially when the Jayhawks are at home, well in Kansas City at the Sprint Center.

Everything I touched in College ball today is garbage other than Umass +20 right now. However, I agree with you 100%. I don't believe UMass can hang around all game. I need to hit something here.

[vassman86]

Vassman on that one it really depends whos in that afternoon game. I took Philly and Pitt this afternoon at over 6. Theres been 6 goals scored through 2 periods

The more high profile east coast teams usually light the lamp in those afternoon games but as far as Minn and LA every detail I have points under so fade away haha

I can understand Pitts/Phil as an exception to the "NHL Afternoon Under" rule because both teams are hot as hell right now. The Pens are coming off of a 9-2 win over the Isles, and Philly is coming off of a 6-5 come-from-behind SO victory over Carolina. In regards to the Minn/LA game, stats are pointing much in favour of the under.

[showtime2000]

I can understand Pitts/Phil as an exception to the "NHL Afternoon Under" rule because both teams are hot as hell right now. The Pens are coming off of a 9-2 win over the Isles, and Philly is coming off of a 6-5 come-from-behind SO victory over Carolina. In regards to the Minn/LA game, stats are pointing much in favour of the under.

This should sum up the whole thing,
Under is 19-3-4 in the last 26 meetings head to head MIN/LA.

[tdotcotez]

im drowning out here mang... GTOWN NEEDS TO ****IN HIKE UP THEIR SKIRTS AND GRAB THEIR ****IN CAHONES AND PLAY SOME ****IN BALL

[africanroller]

Big Money I am with you. I was all over Butler as well and didnt play it after reading the posts.

[tdotcotez]

CK... dudeman has hit 15/18 of his bets on bet A... dont you think it could be time to fade him? I usually make it a rule never to bet on the knicks/nets (im from nyc/nj) and those 2 teams sometimes decide to just ****in play like shit

[Spoon]

Oh, I do have the overs in the UMass and Georgetown games too. They also look really good and could help me make up for the Tennessee beating I received.

[peterpan19]

if the game is close or a tie at halftime,the coach will motovate them and they will improve in the second half
I think GT can still cover

any thoughts about a 2nd half play here, anyone ?

[tdotcotez]

good thing the buffets in costa rica are only 3$ otherwise id be starvin after how shitty this day is going

[peterpan19]

kansas is -10.5 for 2nd half, I think its too much, what do you guys ?

GT only down 1 at the half
-5 for 2nd half

[cocknocker]

Darnnit,

Kansas got it back within double digits. No play for me on that one now.

[tdotcotez]

I do think the knicks are marginally better minus randolph and plus harrington... but still.... I guess yeah I cant fade the system, not tonight.

[tdotcotez]

I know it sounds crazy but a half unit play on UNC -36 is probably pretty solid. Roy Williams pushes his team to cover spreads for poll position

[Spoon]

Shoebox, tell me something about NM. The line is now -4.5. I'm thinking about laying the points here, but don't know enough about them and you follow them closely.

[cocknocker]

tdotcotez,

The Knicks looks a strong play here in this spot. the Kings covered last night and th Knicks are shooting the lights out. I think that the minute mixing is over now and they should be a well oiled machine by gametime. BTW I didn't mess with the Jayhawks at the half. I want ed them to be down by double digits, but they came back in the 2nd part of the 1st half.

BTW if you are in Costa Rica, go to the Tex Mex Restaurant in Santa Ana. Their Muchacha Burrito is beyond anything you have ever tasted. And while you're there go on over to Bodog's Sportsbook and ask for Rob Gillespie. He is hella cool. He gives good tips on what he is wagering on. You always want to know what the President of a Sportsbook is wageing on personally!

[tdotcotez]

if georgetown loses im just gonna take the rest of my bankroll and buy some high grade central american cocaine and start throwing paper planes made out of $ bills on fire off my balcony

[tdotcotez]

haha I'm not tooo far from santa ana, im actually in playa jaco aka sin city. I need to get my $$ up and cop an enduro dirtbike of some sort

[africanroller]

Philly and Penguins hit 7 and cash the ticket. Lets take the winnings and throw it down on minn/LA under.

Right now I am also liking Islanders and Columbus over. Will hit ya with the stats but all you need to know right now is Islanders are the top of the NHL in overs with 20 out of 28.

[gchessm]

Here is my play. Rocket -4 Under. Both teams are tired after many shoots. The Clippers also played over time. Clev -5 Good luck everyone

[cocknocker]

I'm hip, Spoon,

The line movement is crazy on this game. The sportsbooks have money on both sides of the fence now by tinkering with the spread as mush as they have. it went all the way down to 3 at one point and as high as 5 for a few minutes today. What this means is that this is expected to be a close game decided by less than 6 points. he is obvously avoiding that number 6, which I thought would have been correct for New Mexico to be favored by to begin with in response to the line last year in Mississippi being the favorite by 9. The consensus is now in favor of New Mexico 58% to 41%, which means that heavy action is coming in on the Lobos to shift it from 60% for Mississippi to the Lobos 40%. So the line is moving up as it should with the Lobos having the majority of bettors on their side. Still I doubt that the linemaker will go over that 6 number even if the Lobos go up to 70%. There is definitely money on both sides now, so he got what he wanted.

[tdotcotez]

thank god GWASHINGTON is comin thru... ****ing HOYAS. Knicks are my play tonight

[cocknocker]

tdocotez,

Wow, I know about Sin City. I went there as a single man in the 90's. Women for sale everywhere. And the gorgeous kind at that!

[innovator]

Whoa, Boys and Girls,

Time for a station break. Vassman came onto the threads yesterday and indicated that too many people were relying upon my advice without giving any of their own. So what we end up with is a board that is not mixed, which is not a good thing. Although me and the CK Mafia are Covers rejects and new to these threads, I have always maintained that what I like to see are the input from many and not just from one.

Everyone's pockets may not be as deep as mine. I encourage those wo have issues with the past two days to take a look at my essays on money management. It is imperative that a bettor or wagerer bet only what they can afford to lose, so that you won't wake up in the morning feeling like "Hey this guy has got to win me back all of my money." That's not what this is all about.

See I don't sell my picks. I give them away for free, without hesitation. If a bettor senses that I am on a cold streak, then I always encourage a prospective bettor to do their own research too, and come up with a good sound pick of their own as well, gabeesh? I give out tools. Give a man a fish he eats for one day. Teach him how to fish and he eats for a lifetime, I think is the saying.

So far, in the brief time that I have been at SBR I have given tutorials on how to use power rankings, spreads and corresponding moneylines, money management, baseball props, and the list goes on and on. So now everyone should have the tools to use that I use to have success.

Keep your wagers even. If you can't afford to lose three bets in one night, either shorten your bets or choose one and go with it.

I don't like the negative tone of the thread this morning. I have not once came onto the thread and blamed my loss on another man or woman even if I took their advice and lost. I never woke up the next morning and singled out pronk for a pick gone awry, or Wang if our planned hit didn't work out. That's classless. And I am nothing if not with class and grace. So always remember, the NBA season is a marathon and not a sprint. It should be wagered on accordingly.

Those who sustained losses should have the comfort of knowing that I too took those losses. No way was i to know that Dwight Howard would get injured in a game that i took the moneyline on, or that the Hornets would play the Celtics close all game only to falter in the 4th quarter, or that T-Mac would play virtually the whole game after being listed on the injured reserve. Or that teams would make trades after we placed our wagers on them.

I am relying on all of you to help as well. If I miss something, bring it to light. I did learn to stop betting against the Celtics. They are lights out in BIG games and lose ats in the small ones. So that in itsself was a lesson. And now that I have learned the lesson of the lesson, I am not due to repeat my errors betting against them in a big game ever again. They get ALL of the calls at home, and that was something that I forgot. The referees love them.

Remember these are my leans....what's yours?

sorry if you felt i was blaming you man..just saying i would need your help to get it back.

[showtime2000]

Philly and Penguins hit 7 and cash the ticket. Lets take the winnings and throw it down on minn/LA under.

Right now I am also liking Islanders and Columbus over. Will hit ya with the stats but all you need to know right now is Islanders are the top of the NHL in overs with 20 out of 28.

Way too go africanroller!!!!!!
some stats for ISl and Colu,

Islanders last 5 games
-average scored 2.0
-averaged score against 5.4

Islanders all games
-average score 2.6
-averaged scored against 3.7

Islanders road games
-average score 2.4
-average scored against 3.7


Columbus all games
-average score 2.8
-average scored against 3.1

Columbus home games
-average score 2.9
-avergae score against 2.9

Columbus last 5 games
-average score 2.0
-average score against 2.8

Add to the fact that the last 11 games for the Islanders 8 have gone over and 3 have pushed.

Some trends,
Over is 9-0-1 in NYI last 10 games as an underdog.
Over is 20-7-1 in NYI last 28 overall.

[tdotcotez]

GTOWN needs to get these ****in boards and just drop in the layups

[tdotcotez]

Haha yeah good times, I dont pay for puss unless they're really hot twins or atleast pretty hot triplets.

[showtime2000]

Sorry CK if we are chatting about NHL in a basketball thread. we'll keep it to minimum.

[tdotcotez]

just when the hoyas start lookin good they shit the bed

[Spoon]

CK:

I had a feeling something like that was going on, but I was not sure because I have no idea about NM. I think I'll still ride Ole Miss here, but to make me feel a little better I buying points.