Leans for Saturday 12/13/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Saturday 12/13/08
    Gosh what a waste of money yesterday! Dwight Howard out with a knee injury, New orleans tanking it when it mattered the most...oh well, back to the drawing board.

    The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and New York is too. but new York also can score with anybody and they are playing better these days. i am going to capitalize on that trend and play this one game a couple of ways. I like the New York Knicks to go over their team total which estimate to be about 107 with a 4.5 point spread. I also like the points as this is an out of conference game and the Kings played the Lakers late last night then had to travel back up north to face these Knicks. The Kings don't enjoy the same success as in years past at home. I'll take the Knicks to get the job done.

    New York team total to go over 107
    New York+3.5 (buying a hook)

    The Chicago Bulls have had a lot of bad starts lately. What they need is a good fast start and no way to do that better than to get home after a loss to the Grizzlies in a game they were expected to win. The Bulls are 4-1 ats and straight upagainst the Nets, and according to power rankings, they should be favored by 3 in this game. i suspect that after the upset against the Grizzlies, they will be favored by that number by gametime, The public will jump all over the Nets but I will take the Baby Bulls to play with energy at home against an older Nets squad that has bad shot selection.

    Bulls-4.5 (should go down)

    I am also eyeballing Detroit's team total against the Bobs as they have hit up the Bobs for 105 points on average the last 5 times that they have layed them overall. The new smaller lineup didn't produce a cover last night but it did produce 114 points. They have gone over the century mark 10 times already this year, and the Bobs have given up 100 in two of their last 3 games. I am very interested in what their number will be for the team total for this game. They own the Bobcats offensively. i just can't take them to cover a spreadthese days. they have lost 4 out of their last 5 ats...
  • africanroller
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-30-08
    • 936

    #2
    Cavs opened up at -5 over Atlanta. Well this one definately seems to good to be true so whats the deal.
    Comment
    • Devon
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-25-08
      • 371

      #3
      Looks pretty good, defintely puting a small wager on it at the moment if anything.

      Atlanta are playing there first home game on the back of 4 games on the road and the Cavs have covered their last 10 games straight, half of which were double digits.
      Comment
      • cocknocker
        Restricted User
        • 11-06-08
        • 8001

        #4
        Personally I don't see how the Hawks can hang in that one. They have got to be tired after making all of those points last night and then having to travel on top of that. The Cavs depth has been tested a bit though, with the loss of Ilgauskas and Boobie. Still I think that they have enough left in the tank. Good call, Devon and roller! Man Dwight Howard's injury messed up that ticket last night. They couldn't guard him while he was playing! But oh well. BigMoney and I made it all back on an "all in" third quarter bet on the Lakers wherein I put up 3 units and cashe the ticket to lessen the sting of an otherwise bad day. I definitely put my nuts on the table last night. I said a silent prayer before and after I laid it. I haven't laid that much money on a quarter of basketball in at the very leat 3 years. The most that i can remember was a third quarter bet last year with the Raptors at the half down by double digits at home with rest. I laid a cool $1500.00 on that one and cashed the ticket. But last night was so horrible that I had to put my trust in the Kobees to get me up off of the mat. My hands are still trembling a little right now... All that I can say is thanks BigMoney for that Circle of trust play. My hat's off to you for that one.

        Secondly I must apologize to the CK Mafia for that performance yesterday, although the Howard injury threw me for a loop. I was going to take them again today, but no go now.

        I like our chances with the picks for Saturday. With no college football in the way, I need ya pronk. Hook me up with a solid college basketball play. i need the help of my brothers after last night.

        So far i like Tennessee-3 1st half. The average score 1st half for Tennessee is 37 and Temple's is 24. last year they blew Temple out by 17 80-63. I am going to pound that one hard as hell. I am mad about my losses yesterday and am determined to do better today.
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          I also like Misssissippi +4 at New Mexico. Ole Miss always comes to play and should cash the ticket at the Pit. New Mexico is not as strong as they once were. I am going to add a hook and make my spread 4.5 on that one.

          Also tell me what you think about Wisconsin Green Bay getting 11 at Wisconsin. They have covered the last 5 straight times they have played the Badgers....
          Comment
          • ryanXL977
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-24-08
            • 20615

            #6
            nyk over is a gem
            not sure about the tired angle. these are young guys
            Comment
            • Spoon
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-21-08
              • 592

              #7
              Cavs -5? Let me guess, the public will hammer this to death quickly and it will be -7 by morning.
              Comment
              • andkon
                SBR Hustler
                • 10-23-08
                • 64

                #8
                The Cavs I think can still easily cover -5. I know Z is out, but the Hawks are tired too, and Lebron has been resting all year for situations like this, where he has to take over games down the stretch.
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  Spoon,

                  you already know that the public is gonna hammer it! When the morning comes that spread will not be the same as it is tonight. Some that love it are already playing it. It looks like that will be the pick of the day tomorrow. We should all have get one pick that we all can agree upon, or at least the majority and go with it as a unit! We all rise or fall!
                  Comment
                  • ManBearPig
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-04-08
                    • 2473

                    #10
                    I'm thinking of joining an online sportsbook to help speed up my betting and supplement the numerous trips i have to make to the casino each day...any recommendations?
                    Comment
                    • Devon
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-25-08
                      • 371

                      #11
                      I'm pretty sure CK is a fan of Linesmaker, BetUS and The Greek?

                      I am on bet365 at the moment, it's pretty good. Able to bet on live NBA games, buy & sell the hook and the payouts a ridic quick (instant!)... I'll prolly be joining one of CK's three once the baseball season begins and I have a large bankroll to get a good bonus!

                      Anyhoo good luck choosing your online sports book.
                      Comment
                      • ManBearPig
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-04-08
                        • 2473

                        #12
                        I actually had looked at BetUS previously before deciding to just go to the casinos. I thought it looked pretty decent with a good interface and decent bets. I just want one that doesnt have a large deposit amount requirement or none if possible. I'll have to look at the ones you just mentioned...thanks again.
                        Comment
                        • cs11787
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-26-08
                          • 1088

                          #13
                          Whats up CK. Sorry about last night man, bad night. But I guess you cant win all of them, just most. Lol. For tomorrow so far Im liking Cle, Utah (if Dwight is out), and NY. Other lines have not come out yet. What do you think?
                          Comment
                          • cocknocker
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-06-08
                            • 8001

                            #14
                            Well I like Greek.com only because of the accessability you have to your money. You can call them up and request your money prior to 7:00am pst, and have your money in cash by 3:15pm pst if you use MoneyGram. As far as baseball is concerned, i like Betus, because they have the juiciest bonuses. I woork with a guy named Bruce there and I use the promotional code 381-895. man that dude gives me a fisfull of money when i make my annual deposit of $4000.00 for baseball season. Sometmes he gives me a 35-40% if I negotiate with him long enough and promise to do the appropriate rollover, which is no problem because he won't see me again until November. And when he does he will be cutting me a check for almost 30 somethin' thousand easy, which I will use to fund my football and basketball wagers. I do basketball and football on Greek.com.
                            Comment
                            • wangichu
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-07-08
                              • 946

                              #15
                              oooh... how long it's been since i've been able to take the hawks as home dogs, especially with 6 points... i know i know, cavs are great lebron's the man, but damn... that was a meal ticket last year... unless i am just overwhelmed by a few other plays, that may just find it's way to my ticket... pump that spread public
                              Comment
                              • DennisGreen
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-27-08
                                • 18369

                                #16
                                I don't know a ton about the NBA but some basic number crunching leads me to see no way CLE can't cover the 5 pts. 19 of their 20 wins this year have come by 5 or more points. They beat ATL by 14 earlier in the year. ATL's 7-1 home record is very misleading as all of their wins were vs sub .500% teams. Their only loss was to a plus .500% team. I'm betting this big
                                Comment
                                • isiah121
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-04-08
                                  • 313

                                  #17
                                  CK, what you do think about Dallas Cowboys -2.5 against the Giants? Is this a good play?
                                  Comment
                                  • Devon
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-25-08
                                    • 371

                                    #18
                                    That's CK's pc play, they hit about 8-3 while on SBR.
                                    Comment
                                    • NBA Hero
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-05-08
                                      • 1886

                                      #19
                                      cavs are too good to be true.

                                      hope all of us can cash in on this. would go for at least a minimum
                                      Comment
                                      • innovator
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-28-08
                                        • 238

                                        #20
                                        i bet the farm yesterday and lost present money...it's been a bad 2 days.
                                        Comment
                                        • joanapoker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 12-09-08
                                          • 2275

                                          #21
                                          lAST NIGHT WAS TERRIBLE.....MADE MONEYLINE BET ORL (WHEN THEY WERE AHEAD BY 12 POINTS @1.83)......MADE DET-6 AND THEN DET-4.5............FCKKKKKKKK

                                          TODAY I WANT THAT CK END HIS BAD RUN OF THE PAST TWO DAYS.....BUT BEFORE THAT I'VE ALREADY POUNDED HARD CAVS -5!

                                          THE SO CALL PRO EXPERTS ARE ALL WITH ATLANTA, SOME FRIENDS BOUHGT A PICK AND IT SAYS SOMETHING LIKE THIS.....
                                          The Cavaliers are absolutely rolling right bow as they have won 11 straight games and even more impressive has been the fact that they have covered everyone of those
                                          games and in pretty east fashion. Those wins have come by an average of 20 ppg and only one of those wins was decided by single digits. Going against a streak like this
                                          may seem not too smart but what it provides us tremendous line value. Cleveland was favored by 6.5 points in its last road game in Philadelphia and this line is similar
                                          although the Hawks and Sixers are far from similar.
                                          Cleveland has had the luxury of playing a rather soft slate as its schedule is ranked 26th in the league. The Cavaliers have gone 14-0 against teams ranked outside the top
                                          16 in the NBA but they are a more realistic 6-3 against teams ranked within the top 16 and that is where the Hawks fall. Atlanta is ranked 11th overall and 4th in the Eastern
                                          Conference and this is with playing the 11th ranked schedule. The Hawks are 2-5 against the top ten in the NBA but all of those games came on the road.
                                          The Cavaliers are 7-3 on the road including wins in four straight games but those contests came against the Sixers, Bobcats, Bucks and Knicks who are currently 22nd, 23rd,
                                          19th and 21st. That is not exactly a solid resume of big wins. Do I think the Cavaliers are a very solid team? Of course. Do I think the Cavaliers are overrated? Yes. This
                                          streak is not going to last forever and this is the first time in over three weeks they have been truly tested and with their injury situation, the streak comes to and end
                                          tonight.
                                          7* Atlanta Hawks
                                          Comment
                                          • innovator
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-28-08
                                            • 238

                                            #22
                                            CK you should help me win it all back many times over when i get more cash.
                                            Comment
                                            • Spoon
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-21-08
                                              • 592

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by joanapoker
                                              lAST NIGHT WAS TERRIBLE.....MADE ...SNIP
                                              Thanks for sharing, Joanapoker. ARe they saying to take Atlanta @ -7 (buy the full point)? Anyway, the pick your friends bought is really a bunch of statistics and personal opinion in all honesty. This is information that should be researched by anyone who places the bet anyway, IMO.

                                              While a lot of the stuff mentioned is true, I must go with the Cavs -4. I've been on fire for the last two days and I can't see the Cavs having a hard time covering even -6. I don't believe the streak ends here, but we'll see how it plays out on the court. Btw, Atlanta must be tired after the show they put on last night and that won't help them any tonight.

                                              GL
                                              Comment
                                              • BigMoneyMan
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-14-08
                                                • 925

                                                #24
                                                Sorry about last night guys but I hit 5-2. The only thing that wasnt on the thread was second have Cavs witch I texted to CK.
                                                Joan I hope you didn't jump on my post for Orlando. I thought they were giving points not getting them. I took them at 2 because they were even money vs -110 for 1.5. so I bought it up to 2. Sorry I didn't repost but if Howard hadn't got hurt it wouldn't have mattered.
                                                I will be back later to post.
                                                Comment
                                                • 2qwik
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 11-12-08
                                                  • 61

                                                  #25
                                                  It was a really rough day guys but today is a new day.
                                                  I only put in Cavs -5.5 for now and I cant seem to find the Team totals up yet to hit up the Knicks for over 107.
                                                  I have to get up and go but will have to do some research and get back on here later on in the day
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BookBuster
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-09-08
                                                    • 211

                                                    #26
                                                    Hey Ck

                                                    After that Double OT of San Antonio and Dallas, they both had no energy in the next game, making it a very low scoring game going well under the totals. Tonight is Houston @ LA Clippers. The Clippers went into Double OT last night against Portland. They must've played their hearts out for that win. While Houston put up big numbers against Golden State. The only thing that might not be a factor is that the Clippers didn't have to travel after that 2OT win. Houston does. I was checking out the Total of 193. I'm leaning towards the under in that game. Let me know what you think, change my mind if I'm wrong on this.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #27
                                                      Whoa, Boys and Girls,

                                                      Time for a station break. Vassman came onto the threads yesterday and indicated that too many people were relying upon my advice without giving any of their own. So what we end up with is a board that is not mixed, which is not a good thing. Although me and the CK Mafia are Covers rejects and new to these threads, I have always maintained that what I like to see are the input from many and not just from one.

                                                      Everyone's pockets may not be as deep as mine. I encourage those wo have issues with the past two days to take a look at my essays on money management. It is imperative that a bettor or wagerer bet only what they can afford to lose, so that you won't wake up in the morning feeling like "Hey this guy has got to win me back all of my money." That's not what this is all about.

                                                      See I don't sell my picks. I give them away for free, without hesitation. If a bettor senses that I am on a cold streak, then I always encourage a prospective bettor to do their own research too, and come up with a good sound pick of their own as well, gabeesh? I give out tools. Give a man a fish he eats for one day. Teach him how to fish and he eats for a lifetime, I think is the saying.

                                                      So far, in the brief time that I have been at SBR I have given tutorials on how to use power rankings, spreads and corresponding moneylines, money management, baseball props, and the list goes on and on. So now everyone should have the tools to use that I use to have success.

                                                      Keep your wagers even. If you can't afford to lose three bets in one night, either shorten your bets or choose one and go with it.

                                                      I don't like the negative tone of the thread this morning. I have not once came onto the thread and blamed my loss on another man or woman even if I took their advice and lost. I never woke up the next morning and singled out pronk for a pick gone awry, or Wang if our planned hit didn't work out. That's classless. And I am nothing if not with class and grace. So always remember, the NBA season is a marathon and not a sprint. It should be wagered on accordingly.

                                                      Those who sustained losses should have the comfort of knowing that I too took those losses. No way was i to know that Dwight Howard would get injured in a game that i took the moneyline on, or that the Hornets would play the Celtics close all game only to falter in the 4th quarter, or that T-Mac would play virtually the whole game after being listed on the injured reserve. Or that teams would make trades after we placed our wagers on them.

                                                      I am relying on all of you to help as well. If I miss something, bring it to light. I did learn to stop betting against the Celtics. They are lights out in BIG games and lose ats in the small ones. So that in itsself was a lesson. And now that I have learned the lesson of the lesson, I am not due to repeat my errors betting against them in a big game ever again. They get ALL of the calls at home, and that was something that I forgot. The referees love them.

                                                      Remember these are my leans....what's yours?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cocknocker
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 8001

                                                        #28
                                                        pronk,

                                                        Wake up! I want you to talk to me about the college hardwood today! Tennessee went up from -6 to -8 overnight, which is what the line is supposed to do. I played the 1st half last night at -3, and this morning it is -4.

                                                        I played my Mississippi pick last night at +4.5 buying a hook. This morning, the line went down to 3.5, which is comforting.

                                                        So those are my two for the day:

                                                        Tennessee -3 1st half
                                                        Mississippi +4.5

                                                        What else do you have on tap today?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Spoon
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-21-08
                                                          • 592

                                                          #29
                                                          @CK:

                                                          Take Hoyas -5.5 (I bought it down to -5) ...that's my play in addition to Tennessee -6 (bought the half as well)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #30
                                                            The Knicks pick is luscious! The line is all the way down to 1.5 now. I am going to play the 1st half for some small coin in addition to the game. They may blow the Kings out! I have not made my move on this one yet. I am going to watch the line all day and make my move somewhere around 6pm pst. I don't care if i have to take them as a favorite. I feel that strong about this game
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cocknocker
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-06-08
                                                              • 8001

                                                              #31
                                                              Spoon,

                                                              Bet. You got it. I'll take the Hoyas-5.5, but take a look at San Francisco catching 3.5 at Boise State. 94% of the public is on Boise, yet the line is stiff. I think that this play deserves some attention. It HAS to go up some by gametime. I think that this is a wait it out job. The linesmaker is going to have to do something about that.

                                                              Updated plays for college hardwood:

                                                              Georgetown-5.5 (buying the hook)
                                                              Tennessee-3 1st half
                                                              Mississippi+4.5 (bought a hook at +4)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • shoebox
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-26-08
                                                                • 5710

                                                                #32
                                                                CK lay off New Mexico this team is like the Broncos except the pit adds more of an advantage for the lobos. With miss coming in they WILL show up!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Spoon
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-21-08
                                                                  • 592

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I can't even tell you how many games I have on my "wait it out job" list today - lots, lol. FYI, SanFran has been @ +4.5 for a while in a few places that I seen.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • peterpan19
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                                    • 3377

                                                                    #34
                                                                    my play for today is hou -4, I dont who the public likes, but lac (even if I like kaman, only bc he is a kinda german) are 0-5 ats and su against hou at home, just like that play a lot
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BookBuster
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                                      • 211

                                                                      #35
                                                                      anyone liking the under in that houston game? houston does sound good...and clippers had double ot last night
                                                                      Comment
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