RabidGolfer Picks

DallasMaverick41 · 02-02-13, 09:44 AM

Which bet are you most comfortable with today, Rabid?
I'm thinking Knicks or OKC tonight.

Melda · 02-02-13, 01:06 PM

good calls last night. wish i woulda applied myself to the Heat context of sucking against good teams on the road. Shoulda been easy

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 02:24 PM

Honestly guys, I think the Knicks will crush Sacramento today. That game should be a no brainer. Both teams are playing back to back, but Sacramento is terrible on the road, and the nicks are pretty good at home. It's a big spread, but the next should have no problem covering it. If you were going to pick one game, that's the one I would pick

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 02:26 PM

That being said, a little bit riskier pick is the San Jose sharks game. I think the sharks will have no problem winning by 2+ pts, And I think the payout is +180 right now for -1.5.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 02:27 PM

Wow! I just saw that the wizards are getting 13 points against San Antonio. I would take the wizards +13 in a heartbeat too.

DallasMaverick41 · 02-02-13, 02:33 PM

What about OKC -6?

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

What about OKC -6?

Can you get it for that? Bovada has the line at -10.5. That's an excellent number if you can lock it in.

Italy · 02-02-13, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Can you get it for that? Bovada has the line at -10.5. That's an excellent number if you can lock it in.

you can play 2 (1x2 basket)

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 03:02 PM

33-26-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Here's what I have so far:

Houston -12
New York -11
Washington +13
San Jose Sharks -1.5

Houston has been an autofade for me for the last three weeks, but seems to have overcome their slump and is back to their high scoring ways. Their scores in their last four games (3 wins, 1 loss) were 100, 119, 125, and 118 for an average of 115.5. Meanwhile, Charlotte's last four (1 win, 3 losses) were 92, 102, 85, 78 for an average of 89.25. That's over a 25 point difference. Couple that with the fact that Houston is 15-8 at home and Charlotte is 5-16 away, and the fact that Charlotte allows 102.9 points per game, and I think we'll have a 20+ point blowout by Houston today. It's likely there will be some betting on Charlotte because of Houstons January trouble, but that just means Houston is a bit underrated right now.

The Knicks are coming off of a win yesterday at home where they are 17-6, and Sacramento is coming off a loss yesterday on the road where they are 5-19. Both teams are probably tired, but Sac is travelling, and likely discouraged. Sac averages 96 points but allows 102.8, while the Knicks average 100.6 and allow only 96. The Kicks have won 3 out of the last four, and the last two were by double digits. Sac has won 1 out of the last 4, and two of those losses have been by double digits. Should be an easy win for the Knicks and hopefully an easy cover.

Washington had a hot streak going when Wall came back in Jan, but has recently stuggled. This is my weakest pick, but I think it could be a surprise. Washington is 0-8 in the second of back to back games, and has lost 13 straight against the Spurs by an average of 18 points. Plus, the Spurs are getting back Tim Duncan from injury and trying for a 10th consecutive win. The only reason I'm taking Washington +13 is because I think EVERYBODY is going to be on the Spurs, and I think the line is inflated. We've seen Washington keep up with better teams, and even put up 120 points against Orlando last month. I don't see them winning this one, but I think they'll keep it close. Just a hunch...play at your own risk.

San Jose is the hottest team in the NHL, and I believe the last undefeated team. They're 7-0-0, they're averaging 3.9 ppg, and they're only allowing 1.7 ppg. Nashville is the opposite. They're 2-2-3, scoring 1.6 ppg, and allowing 2.3 goals. I predict a 4-1 final score in this game. Shouldn't be a problem for the Sharks at home.

I may play Golden State later when I have a line (Bovada sucks). Good luck!

DallasMaverick41 · 02-02-13, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Can you get it for that? Bovada has the line at -10.5. That's an excellent number if you can lock it in.

Yeah, just locked it in. I accumulated some loyalty points that allow you to lower the spread and so I used all my points to lower it to 6.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Yeah, just locked it in. I accumulated some loyalty points that allow you to lower the spread and so I used all my points to lower it to 6.

Nice man, that sounds good to me.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 05:12 PM

Guys, here's an update on the theory I'm working on. This is what I based my pick on yesterday of Indiana vs Miami (successfully chose Indiana to beat Miami). The thread is called http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...team-bias.html and is in the Handicapping Thinktank Forum. Based on just the two teams I've analyzed this year, the dog wins straight up 75% of the time. Let me know what you think.

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Okay, I just did a cursory analysis of this season based on the Lakers and the Heat. Both public teams.

Theory: Fade a public team on the road against a home dog with a low spread.

Criteria:
Home team is a dog between 0 and +3
Away team is a public favorite
Home team has had one or more days of rest
Away team has had no more than one day of rest

Miami Results: 1-5 ATS

2/1/2013	at INDIANA	-2	184.5	89-102	L	L
1/30/2013	at BROOKLYN	-2	191.5	105-85	W	W
1/14/2013	at UTAH	-2.5	198	97-104	L	L
1/8/2013	at INDIANA	-1.5	187.5	77-87	L	L
11/14/2012	at LA CLIPPERS	-1	197.5	100-107	L	L
11/11/2012	at MEMPHIS	-1.5	194.5	86-104	L	L

LA Lakers Results: 2-4 ATS

2/1/2013	at MINNESOTA	-2.5	200.5	111-100	W	W
1/30/2013	at PHOENIX	-3	204	86-92	L	L
1/21/2013	at CHICAGO	PK	194.5	83-95	L	L
12/4/2012	at HOUSTON	PK	215.5	105-107	L	L
11/24/2012	at DALLAS	-1.5	205	115-89	W	W
10/31/2012	at PORTLAND	-2	192	106-116	L	L

So gentlepeople, we may be on to something. Granted it's a small sample size, but so far fading a public team with the above criteria is yielding a 75% success rate.

What are other highly public favorites that I should analyze? Would OKC or LAC fall into this category? Ideally, I'm thinking of picking the 5 most popular teams for this analysis. Your input is appreciated.

DallasMaverick41 · 02-02-13, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Guys, here's an update on the theory I'm working on...

Have you took into account the negligible season the Lakers have been having and their struggles?
You should use teams like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder and do the test.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Have you took into account the negligible season the Lakers have been having and their struggles?
You should use teams like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder and do the test.

I did use the heat, and I haven't used any other teams just yet. Oklahoma City is probably a good one. What are some other public teams people throw money at? Bulls? Clippers?

Vinnie Paz · 02-02-13, 05:49 PM

AKA just spot a trap and hammer the home dog

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

AKA just spot a trap and hammer the home dog

Well, yeah. Exactly. But it's helpful to identify what qualifies as a trap, which teams to fade, and what % of the time it works. I'm going to do a bit more research.

DallasMaverick41 · 02-02-13, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

I did use the heat, and I haven't used any other teams just yet. Oklahoma City is probably a good one. What are some other public teams people throw money at? Bulls? Clippers?

Yeah, also the Knicks.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Yeah, also the Knicks.

Good call! I will definitely include them.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Honestly guys, I think the Knicks will crush Sacramento today. That game should be a no brainer. Both teams are playing back to back, but Sacramento is terrible on the road, and the nicks are pretty good at home. It's a big spread, but the next should have no problem covering it. If you were going to pick one game, that's the one I would pick

I'm not usually one to say I told you so, but today I told you so!

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 10:30 PM

Houston, we have a cover.

RabidGolfer · 02-02-13, 10:53 PM

3-0 tonight on NBA games. Now the San Jose Sharks need to come through for me. Come on baby!

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 01:30 AM

36-27-4

Houston -12 Win
New York -11 Win
Washington +13 Win
San Jose Sharks -1.5 Loss

3-1 isn't a bad night.

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 02:31 AM

36-27-4
RPOD 1-1

For tomorrow:

Boston +1
Toronto +5

Go home team dogs!

DallasMaverick41 · 02-03-13, 09:21 AM

Really? Celtics?

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 11:09 AM

Added:

Detroit +3

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Really? Celtics?

Celtics are one point dog at home against the Clippers, which are a much better team. Matches my criteria for public team bias perfectly.

Coreos · 02-03-13, 11:37 AM

Congrats on the games yesterday bro! I stayed away from the DD games but broke even otherwise. I'm drooling over whoever hit the Cleveland ML yesterday.

I'm leaning the same as you, but will need to look at the lines closer to gametime. So these picks part of your new system?

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Coreos

Congrats on the games yesterday bro! I stayed away from the DD games but broke even otherwise. I'm drooling over whoever hit the Cleveland ML yesterday.

I'm leaning the same as you, but will need to look at the lines closer to gametime. So these picks part of your new system?

Sorry, I just saw this post. Yes two of the games today match my public team bias theory's criteria, and they both covered. Toronto doesn't match, but I still think They'll cover against the heat

DallasMaverick41 · 02-03-13, 04:22 PM

Wow, how did you predict that Detroit would only lose by 1? Congrats!
And betting on the Boston Celtics when the public was betting on Clippers, amazing!
Whenever I bet big, I don't listen to your picks, and either I lose or we both lose.
Next time I go big, it will only be by your picks.

Congrats on the wins and wish you many more to come!

RabidGolfer · 02-03-13, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Wow, how did you predict that Detroit would only lose by 1? Congrats!
And betting on the Boston Celtics when the public was betting on Clippers, amazing!
Whenever I bet big, I don't listen to your picks, and either I lose or we both lose.
Next time I go big, it will only be by your picks.

Congrats on the wins and wish you many more to come!

Thank you sir! Again, both of those games fit my profile of what I'm looking for. Need to stop playing anything else. Toronto was a mistake, and so were the Sharks last night. Enjoy the Superbowl! I'm a niners fan so no bets for me

RabidGolfer · 02-04-13, 11:42 AM

38-28-4
RPOD 1-1

Boston +1 Win
Detroit +3 Win
Toronto +5 loss

Will post today's picks later. GL!

RabidGolfer · 02-04-13, 04:01 PM

38-28-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Washington Wiz +4

This may be my only pick today. Clippers are coming off of a loss yesterday, they're on the road, Chris Paul is out, Blake Griffen is shooting like crap, and they probably aren't expecting much out of Washington. The Wizards are at home , have had a day of rest (although they were in San Antonio on Saturday) and will hopefully come out and play hard to get a win. They've been struggling in the 2nd quarter and definitely have their own issues to resolve, but I'm rooting for the Wiz on this one.

Good luck!

freshguy222 · 02-04-13, 04:18 PM

maybe wizards 1Q if you say they might struggle in 2Q? i wouldnt be confident in +4 if they arent leading at halftime

RabidGolfer · 02-04-13, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

maybe wizards 1Q if you say they might struggle in 2Q? i wouldnt be confident in +4 if they arent leading at halftime

Please don't tail if you aren't comfortable with this pick. I'm never 100%. 1st Qtr might be a good alternative, however if you're fading the clippers because of their fatigue, that may not manifest itself until the fourth quarter. I like the wizards to win on the money line, but will take 4 pts all day.

freshguy222 · 02-04-13, 05:02 PM

maybe wizards 1Q if you say they might struggle in 2Q? i wouldnt be confident in +4 if they arent leading at halftime
no, not tailing here anyway, just trying to get some opinion on the game, was just a thought, because in my experience usually the more talented comes through late in the game if it is not a total blowout. i see it over and over again, teams are in good spots only to be caught late by the better team.