22-15-2
Toronto +4 Win
Boston +1 Loss
LAC -6 Loss
Toronto +4 Win
Boston +1 Loss
LAC -6 Loss
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Comment -
22-15-2
Great games today!
Utah +5
New Orleans -2 (bought .5 pts)
Washington -6
OKC -9
Detroit +10 (bought .5 pts)
Plus a 5 point teaser on all 5 games. Payout is +350. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not going to include the teaser in my win/loss/push record since I'm already including the individual games that make it up. Plus, since is kind of a long shot (worse than 1 in 3 chance of hitting), it wouldn't seem fair to count it. If there's a proper way to do this, please let me know (I think it's called normalizing).
Best of luck everyone!Comment -
24-18-2
Great games, but poor picks:
Utah +5 Loss
New Orleans -2 Loss
Washington -6 Win
OKC -9 Win
Detroit +10 Loss
The teaser was a loss as well. I guess it's time to stop blindly fading Houston and the Lakers. Sacramento is another story...ha!
I will post pics for tonight a little bit later today.Comment -
24-18-2
Denver -13
Tonight, I'm only playing one game. There are others I like, but I feel so strongly about Denver blowing out Sacramento that I'm literally putting 77% of my bankroll on the game.
1. Denver has been averaging 109 pts in their last 10 games, and Sac has been allowing 108 points. Denver is one of the strongest home teams right now, and Sac can't seem to win a game if their lives (or home city) depended on it.
2. Sacramento played hard last night against OKC in Cali and lost by 10. This is a back to back game for them, and they had to travel today. The bus ride from the airport to the Denver arena is long and, and they're going to arrive tired.
3. The last time Denver played Sac, it was in Sacramento and Denver won by 25 points. Denver has improved since then, and Sac hasn't.
I know 13 is a lot of points and I know its poor money management, but I'm ready to win back some of yesterday's losses, and I think one solid game should do it. On the other hand, if I crash and burn I'll have to play conservatively for a while and build back up. That's part of the fun, right? Anyway, here's to a Denver victory!
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@RabidGolfer
According to your estimates, several Nuggets players should switch personal margin...
AGallinari 17,5 over, Iggy 13,5, Lawson 15,5 over
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OIC, sorry. I don't get into props too much. I'm looking at Denver's points as a team over the last 10 games, as well as Sac's points allowed. It's a shallow analysis, but I'm banking on Sac being exhausted from last night + the trip to Denver, and Denver being rested. Seems like a no brainer imo, but we'll have to watch and see.Comment -
Overall 25-18-2
POD 1-0
Denver -13 Win
As I mentioned, I put 77% of my bankroll on this one and came up big. I predicted a 20+ lead by Denver, and they blew out Sac by 28 points. Since I called this a pick of the day in the thread I started here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...13-vs-sac.html I'm going to track my POD stats. I'll still include them in the overall win/loss count, but want to see how I do when I feel strongly about games. Okay, off to bed. I'm going to enjoy sleeping on a profit.Comment -
Congrats and great call though I got to admit that was pretty ballsy putting up 77% of your BR.
Just joined but have been following your posts and like your thought process. Didn't follow your DEN pick but played the under (214.5 +1) so barely squeaked by buying that point and ended up hitting the 2H under as well.
GL on your picks tomorrow - I'll check them out for sure.Comment -
Thanks bro, I appreciate it. Glad it worked out for you.Congrats and great call though I got to admit that was pretty ballsy putting up 77% of your BR.
Just joined but have been following your posts and like your thought process. Didn't follow your DEN pick but played the under (214.5 +1) so barely squeaked by buying that point and ended up hitting the 2H under as well.
GL on your picks tomorrow - I'll check them out for sure.Comment -
Overall since Jan 11th: 25-18-2
PODs 1-0
Here's what I have so far for the early games:
Miami -3 (bought .5 pts)
Oklahoma City -3 (bought .5 pts)
Both of these teams are leaders, and both are playing teams that are struggling, BUT both teams are playing on the road. They've both had a day or two to rest and should come out and play strong, but because both are road games I'm keeping the bet size modest for now. I'll be looking at the other games if I have time, but this may be it for tomorrow. Good luck to everyone!Comment -
Put a unit down for the over MIA & 1H over before I knew Rondo was out
Also had BOS 1H +2.5 so at least that took some of the sting out but I'm w/ you on thinking MIA just takes it away (at least in the 2H when BOS fades).
Will prob not touch LAL game - this looks like a no brainer, but amazing happens all the time.Comment -
Ha amazing happened to get the over on BOS - double OT! Unbelievable.Comment -
Overall 25-19-2
POD 1-0
Pending: OKC -3
I'm adding a couple of the late games to round out my picks for today:
Detroit +2
Atlanta +5
Best of luck!Comment -
I got OKC -1
Best of luck to the both of us
Hopefully tonight we can celebrate together
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I'm getting pissed. OKC and Miami should have won both of these games and easily covered the three, and yet they're both struggling. If OKC doesn't cover this one, I may double down on the two later games.Comment -
I'm on the DET play as well - can you give some insight on why you like them? ORL is 0-4 ATS/SU so I'm fading them and I think DET will bounce back after that blowout by MIA.
Thanks and BOL.Comment -
I don't have a very strong argument for this one and I'm not betting a lot on it. Basically, I think Detroit sucks less than Orlando. Plus, they beat Orlando 105 - 90 on Tuesday in Detroit. Even though this is a road game for Detroit and they've sucked on the road, I like that Detroit is a dog and I think they have a good chance of beating Orlando straight up. Orlando hasn't been able to buy a win in a while, and Detroit has had some solid wins recently, in spite of falling to two top notch teams. I think Detroit uses their recent success and bounces back against the Magic. Good luck!Comment -
Rabid, would you take 188.5 over on the Portland/Clippers game?Comment -
Overall 27-20-2
POD 1-0
Miami -3 Loss
OKC -3 Loss
Detroit +2 Win
Atlanta +5 Win
So I went 2-2 today on NBA, but my double down on Atlanta squeaked me out a small profit. I guess today was good for the dogs! Anyway, it's always a good day when you can net a profit no matter how small. Hopefully the games tomorrow will be better.Comment -
Bro your 2 late picks were dead on - I was going to be all over DET & NO but got caught up watching the LAL ending (had the under). My local book lists the times as EST (I'm CST) and didn't realize the games started thinking I had an hour to put it in. Just being careless cost me 8 units.
Didn't touch ATL since my buddy was going NYK.
You got a NCAABB picks thread? I'd like to start on those, but there's just so many games and so much research. I'm limited on time as it is, so maybe I can tail you on those.
Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's picks.Comment -
I'm the same way, I don't have the time for NCAAB. I mostly have been focusing on NFL and NBA, but I'm not touching the superbowl. These days I'm trying to focus on fewer games and just pick the strong ones. There are some guys here worth tailing though. Check out Vyomguy's picks on this thread. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...g-contest.htmlBro your 2 late picks were dead on - I was going to be all over DET & NO but got caught up watching the LAL ending (had the under). My local book lists the times as EST (I'm CST) and didn't realize the games started thinking I had an hour to put it in. Just being careless cost me 8 units.
Didn't touch ATL since my buddy was going NYK.
You got a NCAABB picks thread? I'd like to start on those, but there's just so many games and so much research. I'm limited on time as it is, so maybe I can tail you on those.
Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's picks.Comment -
Ah ok thanks. I'm mostly just NFL, but I'm beginning to like picking NBA more. My biggest problem is that I have an opinion on every game..fckn juice just kills me..Comment -
Overall 27-20-2
POD 1-0
Just two games for today at this point:
Denver -5.5
Washington -8
I think both teams are on a hot streak and are underrated right now. Denver is one of the highest scoring teams in the league recently, averaging over 109 pts per game, and the Pacers are one of the lowest. The Pacers also have the 2nd best defense in the league, and that could be a problem for Denver who has had an issue with too many turnovers, but I think the 5.5 points should be a pretty easy cover for them at home based on their recent performance.
Washington has also turned a corner since Wall has been back and has claimed recent wins against the Bulls, Nuggets, and Thunder. Meanwhile, Sacramento has royally sucked to the point of an almost guaranteed loser against the spread (which is likely why they are getting 8 points). Add the fact that Sacramento is travelling from Denver to DC, Washington is coming off of a win against the Bulls, and Washington will be looking for revenge for their loss in Sac a few weeks ago, and I don't think Sacramento will be able to keep up on the road against a hot team like this. I do admit that 8 points is a lot, so please play this one at your own risk.
Good luck to everyone!Comment -
Nice write up. With you on DEN but not sure ab WAS. May just wait on 2H play to see how flow of the game is going.
GL.Comment -
Rabid, you bet 77% of your bankroll on Denver last time and dominated. Can we expect the same outcome from Denver at home tonight? If so, I'm tailing you tonight.Comment