nba chase 12/13

[Asset]

What happen to sbr live odds?

Nvm, it all the sudden appeared LOL

[Grinder12000]

Maybe I'm missing something on this Kelly stuff but it seems like an amateur move.

What most people talk about is not actually Kelly betting but proportional betting. It's exactly what you want to do when investing in the stock market over time.

If you bet 1% of your bank you adjust every night so you ALWAYS are betting 1%. If you had $1000 and bet $10 and won your next wager would be 1% of 1009.10 your next wager is $10.09.

As you win your wager goes up. If you run into a losing streak you are always wagering less and less.

Kelly betting (proportional at it's lowest form) is the root to all fortunes in wagering. Instead of upping your wager size at some indiscriminate and meaningless point your slowly raise it as you go.

Not sure where this came from.

You start at $20 units, win and adjust until your unit size is $30

I think most superbowls are easy to call.

Yea - I bet preseason NFL which seems like easy money but once the playoffs start PERSONALLY, I suck.

[CrazyCarl]

Maybe I'm missing something on this Kelly stuff but it seems like an amateur move. You start at $20 units, win and adjust until your unit size is $30, then hit a loss. So now you suffered a bigger loss than if you stayed at 20, and after the loss you readjust to a lower amount so it on top of a larger loss your recovery is prolonged?

It's based on math, not on how good or bad it feels to "recover" losses etc. It's sound, but full kelly is a bit extreme IMO. And, again, not many would like it for systems.

[thelimit0310]

That remark you quoted Grinder is still correct, you would start at 20 and as you win adjust and eventually you'd be at 30 if you keep your streak, still makes sense after your explanation.

I can see how it would work from a flat betting /handicapping point of view, even then it doesn't seem like it would help you unless you were already a successful player. But yeah Carl I agree with you, wouldn't want to play it with a system, doesn't sound effective to use that way.

[Nino7]

Some of the math guys use it to determine how much to bet. Just google "site:forum.sbrforum.com kelly criterion" and you'll find lots of good threads on it.

I don't really recommend it for systems that strongly (certainly could work though), but betting half kelly on regular bets instead of flat betting should be better. Full Kelly I think is a bit crazy, even for me!

I read about Kelly criterion but this logic involve that you know your edge on a particular bet which i have no clue about...

[CrazyCarl]

I read about Kelly criterion but this logic involve that you know your edge on a particular bet which i have no clue about...

I'm just getting into it, so I can't really help you much. Right now I just screw around with it by treating Pinny's lines as god, and then when I find lines that are off, I'll bet them by calculating my edge based on Pinny's no-vig line. I haven't done anything more advanced than this.

[Want2Win]

Maybe I'm missing something on this Kelly stuff but it seems like an amateur move. You start at $20 units, win and adjust until your unit size is $30, then hit a loss. So now you suffered a bigger loss than if you stayed at 20, and after the loss you readjust to a lower amount so it on top of a larger loss your recovery is prolonged?

Also JMD , not sure if you mentioned this before when first mentioning your labby stuff, your imitating Solomans method of half game betting correct? Has this worked in the past? I remember following his thread a year or two ago and his system performed great until a chase loss killed the rolls, makes me wonder if starting from bet B or labbying would have cut down on this and allowed for more profit. Very profitable system if you can shorten the losses from the 1 or 2 series losses that happen

I don't want to get into a big thing here, but calling Kelly an amateur move is just wrong. Grinder is right in his write up about it. I don't adjust everyday though, I adjust every other week. I have been an advantage player for about 30 years in card counting and other casino games as well as sports betting. True you need to know your edge to do the right calculation, but more important is to to have a real bankroll, not an imaginary one. By keeping good records, you either up your unit bet or bring it down depending as in my case, what has happened in the last couple of weeks to your bankroll.

It is the perfect way for money management and really unless you run into a tremendous losing streak, you really can't bust out.

By the way I am a math geek and 60 years old and using a form of Kelly for the last 30 + years. You don't know me, but people who do, would never call me an amateur when it comes to wagering.

Again I am not trying to get into anything here, but Kelly was brought up and how one might use it in a chase system and I am just giving you guys what I do. Take it for what its worth.

[OFS]

I don't want to get into a big thing here, but calling Kelly an amateur move is just wrong. Grinder is right in his write up about it. I don't adjust everyday though, I adjust every other week. I have been an advantage player for about 30 years in card counting and other casino games as well as sports betting. True you need to know your edge to do the right calculation, but more important is to to have a real bankroll, not an imaginary one. By keeping good records, you either up your unit bet or bring it down depending as in my case, what has happened in the last couple of weeks to your bankroll.

It is the perfect way for money management and really unless you run into a tremendous losing streak, you really can't bust out.

By the way I am a math geek and 60 years old and using a form of Kelly for the last 30 + years. You don't know me, but people who do, would never call me an amateur when it comes to wagering.

Again I am not trying to get into anything here, but Kelly was brought up and how one might use it in a chase system and I am just giving you guys what I do. Take it for what its worth.

Warren Buffett structures his investments based on the Kelly Criterion. Warren Buffet=not an amateur.

[njb5572]

Again I am not trying to get into anything here, but Kelly was brought up and how one might use it in a chase system and I am just giving you guys what I do. Take it for what its worth.

I personally think this is a great place for this discussion, money mgmt is critical when running chases and systems.

[Alwarrete]

I had lucky on my Indiana bets. Indiana -5 and Chicago +5.5
with same odds. So lets pray for that 1 chance of Push+win xD.

[OFS]

What am I missing here? The Knicks have won 4 in a row right? Why is today an (A) bet for a S1 play? Wouldn't their last game have been the first play?

[Asset]

What am I missing here? The Knicks have won 4 in a row right? Why is today an (A) bet for a S1 play? Wouldn't their last game have been the first play?

Stif's systems are base on ATS results.

[OFS]

Stif's systems are base on ATS results.

S1: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.

You are betting to CONTINUE that streak. One personal victory and that S1 system is complete

Haha ok, so I wasn't missing the ATS part, the description was. Normally I just play what is posted, I'll go back to that and stop asking questions.

[Grinder12000]

WantToWin. Card counter here also. Grinder comes for Blackjack many years ago. Had a team for a while. Nothing big. BTW. You got me by a year.

[J.M. Disciple]

Adjusting a fresh labby line with 2% of br instead of 2 units would be a more aggressive Kelly approach. as unit size always increases with a fresh line but unit size never decreases.

[John Deere]

Optimal play is to skip indiana and chicago ?

[Grinder12000]

Optimal play is to skip Indiana and Chicago ?

Yes - however I put 1/2 a unit on Indiana before I saw it was a cancel play - so I thought - well, maybe I'll try to middle it . . dang - line moved the wrong way! LIKE UTAH!!! grrrrrr

JMD - labby lines increase automatically don't they?

[thelimit0310]

Want2Win - You use Kelly for this system? How does that work and how do you determine your edge in a laid out system? Better yet, how do you determine your edge in general? If I am understanding correctly it sounds like a system all in itself...You find value bets (how?) and increase/decrease by a set percentage (based on total bankroll?) based on whether those bets win or lose. Not even sure how you would handle multiple bets in a day or if that even factors into the adjustment.

I'm very intrigued and hope you can provide an answer for me. Feel free to PM me if you'd like.

[John Deere]

Yes - however I put 1/2 a unit on Indiana before I saw it was a cancel play - so I thought - well, maybe I'll try to middle it . . dang - line moved the wrong way! LIKE UTAH!!! grrrrrr

JMD - labby lines increase automatically don't they?

Damn haha !
Let say Chicago lose tonight, do we play 2.x units next game or 1 unit play?

[Want2Win]

WantToWin. Card counter here also. Grinder comes for Blackjack many years ago. Had a team for a while. Nothing big. BTW. You got me by a year.

Grinder, I have been card counting since I was 26. Those were the days when they would deal right down to the last card! I had many teams and other things. Still do it among other things i do. Not too many places I am allowed to play though anymore. I still run teams though. Grinder is a great name for a BJ player!

[Want2Win]

[QUOTE=thelimit0310;17722060]Want2Win - You use Kelly for this system? How does that work and how do you determine your edge in a laid out system? Better yet, how do you determine your edge in general? If I am understanding correctly it sounds like a system all in itself...You find value bets (how?) and increase/decrease by a set percentage (based on total bankroll?) based on whether those bets win or lose. Not even sure how you would handle multiple bets in a day or if that even factors into the adjustment.

Limit, I use Keely with all my advantage play. As far as with this system, like I said I have a separate bankroll,(BR), for each aspect of my gambling. In football as an example, I hit between 53 to 58 percent of my bets. This year I ended up with 57.6%, it was a good year. I did have Baltimore with the spread and on the ML yesterday. So for that I do know what my edge is.

Now with this system and other things I do with NBA betting, I don't make every play that he lists. I do some handicapping my self with the plays. But regardless if you want to play all his plays or not, do this. Come up with a BR figure to use for yourself. Make his plays. Now at the end of two or three weeks, add or subtract your wins or losses and now you have a new percentage of your BR to use. If at the end of the two weeks, I still have a system chase pending, I will use the same amount of bet that I started that particular chase with regardless if my unit bet went up or down.

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Want2Win, I will try what you suggest. But am I wrong that the reason to use Kelly would be bigger wins and softer losses? I am still struggling to see how that can be incorporated into a system with bet levels (unless you do not utilize these?). If I only adjust what constitutes my unit every few weeks, how does this help? Again I make the claim that you could easily hit a loss after adjusting a larger unit size, then your next adjustment would be lower and prolong recovery. Apologies for the crash course, I feel like an idiot for not truly understanding this.

[o2matic]

Big CASH on NYK win!

[Kababayan]

I just have to tell you guys, I learn so much on this thread. I rarely post but greatly enjoy learning about different ways to play systems and money management. Thank you all.

[Alwarrete]

Hard picks on saturday with this OT as Utah is playing @Sacramento this time.
If today's pick dont hit it should be like this:
s1
B bet - sac fade: UTA
s4
A bet - sac fade: UTA

Sacramento will have 5 days of rest for the next game and they will play at home. Pretty tough right?


Am i right in all this mindfuck or is just too late for me???? (5:30 am here xD) XD

[J.M. Disciple]

Here are my thoughts based on recent discussion in this thread.

1) The labby as TEMP said, is a great tool to recover your losses and soften your series loss when it does occur. Example a 4 game chase is what 16 units? Lets say you start with 2 units on your labby line 10-10-10-10. Your line after 4 losses is 10-10-10-10-22-35-48-65. So total loss is roughly $168 or (8.8 units). You cut your loss and half and if you win your next four games you are now up 2 units where as a system chase will take 16 series to recover a loss. Labby recover's and gains 2 units in the process.

2) Before I mentioned solaman's thread with labbying halfs. Other day we had a phx series in the JM thread which I won on the first half for one unit. They got blown out 2nd half, so now it becomes a B bet for the system. I will continue to labby this series, which will allow me a chance at winning 2 units on the series. Seems simple right? Couple of warnings about this though. One it cost basically triple what a regular person would bet. Say you labby this series. First half loses cost you $22, 2nd half loses as well cost you another $35. Where a regular labby player who bet whole game would of only lost the initial $22, I have lost $57 almost 3 units. Two, it is also time consuming where you have to monitor games in order to place your wagers during half time. I think wagering halfs is more profitable, but believe me when I say its definitely time consuming and can really back fire. Another example of today. I took POR, NYK, and UTA all first half. POR and NYK cover 1st half, but also cover entire game. UTA however, lost both halfs, so cost me almost 3 units. If I were to just labby the entire game, I would of been 2-1 and been up on the day. Also note if you were to labby all the systems today blind. Wallco chase110, stiffler, and JM system it would of been CHI Lose, IND win, POR win, NYK win, UTA Lose, SAC win, = 4-2 day for a profit.

3) Brings me to my next point with flat betting and kelly criteria in a combined topic. All three systems hit above 50% which makes them profitable flat betting. If flat betting is profitable so is kelly's management. Here are my biggest thoughts on Kelly's management. Yes it is profitable and soften's the losses. Is it the most profitable way to play? I would say no. If you look at my flat betting with this system you can see it is up like 15-20 units where as the chase is up 35 units. In my personal opinion if someone would to apply this strategy, follow all three system or at least 2 out of the three systems. Increase your unit size to 1%, but never decrease your unit size. Flat betting with a 1% unit size with systems that hit above 50% really do not have that much variance, so do not need to decrease your unit size. I would only decrease unit size if you were dealing with a system that played with high juice, like MLB ML or NHL ML etc etc.

My Rankings of profitable ways to play Systems
1) Labby seems to be most profitable way based on systems that can wipe out a large portion of you bankroll with a single loss. Example chase110. It was up like 40 units at one point now its down 15 units on the season. Not calling wallco out on this or anything, overall its a good system and up like 600 units or some thing past so many years. Losses are just detrimental. However, if you labby the system, say you run two labby lines, you should still be up on the season.

2)Hybrid of kelly's management without decreasing unit size, but slowly increasing it.

3)chasing with either 7/5 on JM system or regular chase with this system. I would prefer 1 unit from B-C-D and if you lose, bet 2 units on the next 7 series, since not many back to back losses occur.

4) Flat betting.

I am sure I am missing a couple betting strategies, but these are my favorites. Always been big fan of the labby. This kelly thing is pretty cool. Not a big fan of chasing especially if it cost so much of your bankroll.

[J.M. Disciple]

OH and to answer grinders question earlier of "doesn't the labby always increase?" If i understand the question correctly the answer is no. A lot of people use stagnant unit size with the labby of 50-50-50-50. If you constantly use 2% of your bankroll it is a more aggressive labby approach. I think its a bit too agressive because of bad runs can really hurt! Helps to have a nice cushion of profit when you are chasing.

If you look at MLB thread ran by on3 last season a lot of people lost their bankrolls cause they were using a percentage for their labby line rather than stagnant unit size. So when On3 was down like 20 units or some thing, but was up like 30 units or some thing at one point, people lost 50% of their roll, when it should of only been 20%.

Chasing is best with stagnant unit size.


Ok thats all for the night.

Good Night Everyone!

[Wallco99]

Big CASH on NYK win!

Well....one unit, anyway!

[John Deere]

J.M
Why would someone Chase instead taking the Labby system?

(New in sportsbets)

[o2matic]

Well....one unit, anyway!

I gave 10unit bet on it. HAHA

[abzflabz]

Does it matter how many numbers u put down in a labby line. Can we put 2 numbers down and go from there or does it need to be 4 numbers?

[miczz14]

any plays for tom?

[Stifler]

04.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Ind: Indiana -5 1,10u
(A Bet) Chic: Chicago +5 1,10u
(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks -10 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Utah - 8 1,10u

records:
S1: W 49 | L 2 (+12,10 units)
S2: W 25 | L 2 (-11,90 units)
S3: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S4: W 40 | L 1 (+23,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade

pending:
- S1 Sac fade, B Bet on 09.02.2013
- S1 Chic, B Bet on 07.02.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[Grinder12000]

Why would someone Chase instead taking the Labby system?

Labbys have a way of disappearing, they can go ZOOM and be outstanding or disappear - a Chase is actually more consistent.

OH and to answer grinders question earlier of "doesn't the labby always increase?

OH - ok

My labby are like 2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18 I bet 20 (18+2), if I win 20 gets put on the end - if I lose I erase the 18 and 2 and bet 16+4 the next game . I have 4 lines. I think this is called a reverse labby??

[Grinder12000]

Just compiled new Chase stats.

A games are hitting 57.8%
BCD games are hitting 58%

I'll have a better breakdown when I can get to a computer that does not block SBR.