Appreciate the response. I think with Nate Robinson getting plenty of minutes, Bulls have a decent chance of making a few 3s.
-
Comment -
Alright, well I'm not going to play many NBA things until that 3 prop comes back - but this is one I am getting after tonight.
PROP/PLAY #27: [11.17.12] Mavericks Team Total Over 98 [-110]
Mavs go against maybe the worst defense in the league in Cleveland tonight. The Cavs are allowing 51% shooting from the floor and almost 105 ppg. Dallas is averaging slightly better than 100 ppg. They have scuffled some recently, but go against the Cavs who have allowed 100+ in seven of eight overall this season.Comment -
Suck it Bovada. I take your money without the three props tonight.
PROP-a-PALOOZA: 15-10-2 [+1.33]Comment -
PROP/PLAY #28: [11.18.12] Bulls Team Total Over 96 [-110]
Bulls going against one of the NBA's worst defenses in Portland. The Blazers allow 49% shooting and over 100 ppg. Chicago comes in off a poor night against the Clippers, but this squad has been able to pummel bad defenses. They had their two best outputs against similarly poor Ds in Phoenix [112] and Cleveland [115]. Portland has allowed at least 100 points in six of nine overall.
Comment -
Nearly got it. Bulls had two big quarters and two shit quarters.
PROP-a-PALOOZA: 15-11-2 [+0.78]Comment -
With the 3 prop MIA, continuing to try to find a TT to ride with when applicable.
PROP/PLAY #29: [11.19.12] Grizzlies Team Total Over 101.5 [-110]
Memphis has topped 102 or more in six of nine this season, including four of five @ home. Denver is giving up just under 101 ppg overall and almost four points more on the road. They have been bashed on the road for at least 102 points in four of their last five - including a season-worst 126 last time against San Antonio.
Comment -
I'm also going to try some experimental plays on 2nd half totals. Your call on what to do with the picks, not guaranteeing any sort of success. I've been working on some on the side the past week or so and I think maybe I've got a little better handle on it. Still don't think it will be as profitable as the NCAA ones - but since the prop shop is on hold, looking for other ways to help aid the cause of raping bookies' pockets. Keeping everything at the 0.5 unit level (to win 0.5 units) as I work on this aspect of my capping.Comment -
Your NCAA formula works for NBA too. At least for me it as.Comment -
It's a bit trickier IMO. I tried it for a while last year and the NBA results were not very consistent. NCAA you can count on fouls to be a large part of the equation in the 2nd half depending on how the game is going. NBA, they do not pull the college BS about fouling over and over even when the game is within maybe 10 in the last minute. NBA they seem to resign themselves to losing rather than extending the game. Last night's Chicago-Portland game was one of the few where I actually saw that sort of strategy utilized for an extended period. Any who, we'll see how it goes. Good luck!Comment -
Appreciate itComment -
[2nd Half] Hawks-Magic Under 93 [-110]Comment -
Well the 2nd half play hit pretty easy. Memphis though not gonna sniff 100 without OT.Comment -
[2nd Half] Jazz-Rockets Over 96 [-110]Comment -
What part of the formula do you tweak in order to get a more consistent number in the NBA? The FT's? If so to what number do you tweak it to?Comment -
Instead of adding extra possessions for the 2nd half like I would for NCAA, I usually subtract a few because I don't expect the NBA games to be prolonged with fouling for the most part. Meh. Houston-Utah, nice 4th Q. We'll see how it goes. Still think the NBA is pretty tough to beat consistently.Comment -
nice 3Q but atrocious 4Q qith only 15 points half way through.Comment -
Yeah this is why I think the NBA is harder to do with these formula plays. Ebb & flow seems to run much hotter and colder than the NCAA games IMO. 1-1 to start the experiment would be okay by me. I actually felt better about the one that is going to lose LoL.Comment -
The under in 2h of the NBA seems to be more prevalent. What's up with Houston? such high hopesComment -
Record: 16-13-2 [+0.18]
2nd Halves: 1-1 [-0.05]Comment -
11.20.12: Lakers C Dwight Howard Total Points Over 20.5 [-135]
Taking a shot here. Certainly no one knows truly how the players will adhere to D'Antoni's system in real time, but Howard has been playing well and comes off a 28 pt. effort vs. Houston. Brooklyn has been exploited big men routinely of late with Varejao killing them for 35 & Cousins lighting them up for 29 last time out. If LA chooses, Howard could be in line for a dominant night against Lopez & Humpheries. 14 field goal attempts has been the magic number for Howard. When he has put up 14 shots or more, he has hit for over 20 points in four of those five. I think if the system is working, Howard should get some easy looks. We'll see.Comment -
[2nd Half] Lakers-Nets Under 102.5 [-110]Comment -
7-19 from the free throw line...that was way to close for you, man. But good win! Your under is looking great, tooComment -
Record: 18-13-2 [+1.18]
2nd Halves: 2-1 [+0.45]
May play a prop tonight, but will be travelling this evening so probably no 2nd halves unless I get a chance to look at the late games once I get to my destination. Happy Thanksgiving.
Comment -
One for travel mode tonight.
11.21.12: Hawks Team Total Under 97.5 [-110]
The Wizards visit Atlanta and while their defense is nothing great, giving up about 95 ppg - they have only given up 97 or better in three of nine overall. ATL has not been able to put up points consistently with just three out of their nine games seeing them score 97 or more. They have just one game in their last seven where this is the case. They average just 93 ppg on the season and even less at home around 90 ppg.Comment -
Traveling myself, early am. Enjoy!
Comment -
Record: 18-14-2 [+0.68]
2nd Halves: 2-1 [+0.45]
11.23.12: Pistons Team Total Over 96.5 [-110]
Detroit has successive 100+ point outputs in their last two home games where they have been much more consistent at home. Toronto visits with the Raptors still giving up around 100 ppg and an extra point higher than that on the road. They have given up higher than tonight's total in six of seven on the road.
Comment -
[2nd Half] Celtics-Thunder Under 99 [-110]Comment -
[2nd Half] Rockets-Knicks Over 99 [-110]Comment -
So much for the OKC-Boston under. 31 points in less than six minutes in the 4th.Comment -
Fukk me. 36 points in half a quarter. Meanwhile Detroit has disappeared after three solid quarters. Looks like a crappy start to the night.Comment -
[2nd Half] Suns-Hornets Under 97 [-110]Comment -
Apparently not the night for 2nd half unders. Wow.Comment -
Record: 19-17-2 [-0.47]
2nd Halves: 3-3 [-0.15]
I think I am going to avoid team totals and just stick to props and 2nd halves.
Comment -
11.24.12: Jazz C Al Jefferson Total Points Over 15.5 [-145]
Comment
