Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[Coopertrooper]

I have stopped watching the Foxtel Cup matches this year because I can't get time to watch them, and just don't have enough knowledge about it to make $$$ off it anymore, so I'm afraid I can't help you out there Cobra, although I'd be probably leaning the West Adelaide line.

Call me crazy butI really like the Roo’s against the Blues this w/e. Regardless of everything that has happened this season, (and all the money the roos have cost me) I have no doubt that the Roo-boys have the superior list. Carlton overrated in my humble opinion. The Roos need to seriously look at their leadership group, Swallow cannot captain this team. Also very interested in Port over the Sainter’s. Just my instincts at the moment, nothing more. Have zero interest in any sports other than State of Origin at the moment.

Loving port this week, although I'm on the blues to get over the roos, just can't trust them and think the sting will be out of their side now. Any leans so far for Origin? As an outsider I've had a good year on Origin so far, NSW have to be a chance to break the streak don't they?

[RedDevil89]

Coopertrooper follows the foxtel cup, he’s the man you want to talk too.

Call me crazy butI really like the Roo’s against the Blues this w/e. Regardless of everything that has happened this season, (and all the money the roos have cost me) I have no doubt that the Roo-boys have the superior list. Carlton overrated in my humble opinion. The Roos need to seriously look at their leadership group, Swallow cannot captain this team. Also very interested in Port over the Sainter’s. Just my instincts at the moment, nothing more. Have zero interest in any sports other than State of Origin at the moment.

Are you planning any big plays for the origin decider Sando?

[Shazzadude]

Hanging out for your game 3 origin selections Sando...

Aren't we all, lol.

[Cobra Kai]

Cheers Sando/coopertrooper for the input, no play it is then.

Was hoping for the green light on Claremont as they're easily the strongest side in the WAFL right now. I must be underestimating the North Adelaide side. Don't know stuff all about the SANFL.

Also looking forward to your game 3 play

[trigga50]

Whilst we wait for Sandos Origin play, Ive got a strong lean for WNBA tomorrow. Could be a good chance to get a couple of units up before tomorrow nights origin match.

WNBA +13.7

San Antonio VS Washington
As i mentioned earlier San Antonio have now lost their second leading scorer on top of their number 1 scorer earlier this year. The game total of this game has had a lot of early movement, Ill be leaving it alone due to the fact San Antonio are still in an adjustment phase after loosing Becky Hammon. Washington have been on a pretty good run lately, one of the keys to their success has been coach Mike Thibault. He is the best coach going around this year and has an impressive record. He has shown in several games this year that he can make the correct adjustments during games to give his team the best chance of winning. Its no secret that Washington play better at home, shooting at 42%. Washington also has one of the best benches in the WNBA, with 31 points being scored from their bench players in their last game at San Antonio on Friday. When Washington visited San Antonio last friday the end score line was 83-73 with washington coming away with a 10 point win. During that game Washington smashed San Antonio is 1st, 2nd and 4th quarters, but allowed San Antonio to get off to a fast start in the 3rd quarter outscoring Washington 23-12. Im not expecting any lapses tomorrow at home, and they should have a big advantage at home.

Washington -6.5 @$1.91 X2.7 UNITS to win 2.5 UNITS

Ive got on board this one early while the line has dipped to 6.5, Im praying that there will be no outs tomorrow like there was yesterday.

[Lilfatbum]

On the Washy train, great posts and plays going on here

[Crowing Capers]

Concerning the Foxtel Cup between Westies and Claremont.
My mates a mad bloods man involved with the club and all at the club confident they win tonight.
West 9-5 had easy win over Eagles top 5 team on weekend and have a bye next weekend.
Claremont 13-2 lost to swan districts but got a feeling rested players to go all out for tonight's game.
Being played at footy pk in what will be a prob be a low scoring game.
The line opened today west -13.5 out to 15.5 now. The market I'm on is
Westies 1-39 @ $1.98. Now into $1.89.
West Adeiaide a working class club, are nearly broke. Winner of the Mickey Mouse cup winner takes all is 100k. Westies will be going all out for this , not saying Claremont won't but at home , I'm leaning West 1-39.

Claremont beat westies by 101 points 2 years ago in this comp but Claremont had 9 AFL listed players and west played 10 debutants in that game. That result irrelevant to tonight.
GL if you betting

[OZnBa Fan]

Coopertrooper follows the foxtel cup, he’s the man you want to talk too.

Call me crazy butI really like the Roo’s against the Blues this w/e. Regardless of everything that has happened this season, (and all the money the roos have cost me) I have no doubt that the Roo-boys have the superior list. Carlton overrated in my humble opinion. The Roos need to seriously look at their leadership group, Swallow cannot captain this team. Also very interested in Port over the Sainter’s. Just my instincts at the moment, nothing more. Have zero interest in any sports other than State of Origin at the moment.

Mate if u want my thoughts yell out?? I was gonna do a write up on this game I'm very confident about this match and probably gonna go for my biggest play of the year

[Cobra Kai]

Concerning the Foxtel Cup between Westies and Claremont.
My mates a mad bloods man involved with the club and all at the club confident they win tonight.
West 9-5 had easy win over Eagles top 5 team on weekend and have a bye next weekend.
Claremont 13-2 lost to swan districts but got a feeling rested players to go all out for tonight's game.
Being played at footy pk in what will be a prob be a low scoring game.
The line opened today west -13.5 out to 15.5 now. The market I'm on is
Westies 1-39 @ $1.98. Now into $1.89.
West Adeiaide a working class club, are nearly broke. Winner of the Mickey Mouse cup winner takes all is 100k. Westies will be going all out for this , not saying Claremont won't but at home , I'm leaning West 1-39.

Claremont beat westies by 101 points 2 years ago in this comp but Claremont had 9 AFL listed players and west played 10 debutants in that game. That result irrelevant to tonight.
GL if you betting

The consensus is with Wests. I'm not sold though, that 9-5 record doesn't look to flash. No play for me.

You seem confident though so best of luck with your play.

[Cobra Kai]

Mate if u want my thoughts yell out?? I was gonna do a write up on this game I'm very confident about this match and probably gonna go for my biggest play of the year

Keen to hear your thoughts mate.

[Crowing Capers]

Yeah what's your thoughts oz?

[sando]

Yea you're probably one of the 5% Sando I'll grant that. But you are the exceptionin how you manage your bankroll, study the game and know your sports, and I figure this is not your professional income but just a side gig.

I've done OK at most sports but never lost an AFL season either (though i have an unusual strategy) but my point is simply that as I earn more in the real world it becomes less and less attractive from an investing perspective to be a sports better. I'd have to be wagering amounts that would get me banned at most books other than Pinny, for starters.

So the question is not just, can you make a living betting sports but will you make most money doing so. Even those that can in theory make money (and this is at best 5% of betters, though 50% probably delude themselves they have what it takes) are probably better off spending that same time in other pursuits. Successful sports betting never leaves your CV in better shape.

For me now I'm better off being happy being marginal profitable and spending more time building my wealth elsewhere.

Great work tonight on the Eagles by the way - I actually think they had apretty poor game error and discipline wise and still won by 20.
They will be a definite finals contender.

Your absolutely right mate, this is purely about supplementing my current income, I do have a job. Sounds like the biggest difference between you and me is that you have a really nice corporate job, where as I’m just a boring old security guard. I got lucky however and landed at a company that actually pays pretty well, and I also receive a fortnightly pension from the army, so money’s not really an issue. For me gambling is a way to make some extra cash. I have zero debt and don’t want any, so when I want something nice, like for example at the moment I’m saving up for a new sportsbike, it is a slow process, actually saving the money instead of just hitting the bank up for a loan. It has taken me a very very long time to get where I am today, i.e into that proverbial 5%

I’ve had years of losing, gambling the rent money, having people tell me I have a gambling problem, even hitting up pawn-brokers for cash – you name it, I did it.I have been doing this for 17 years and even that is a conservative estimate, as I’m 35 now and was playing 5 card draw for big money when I was 14 (I worked as a golf caddy in NY and used to win or lose $150+ sometimes in a day. Might not sound like much but this is $US and back in 1992). I have tried almost everything, pouring thousands into a single pokie machine, buying entire rolls of scratch lotto tickets, and for years betting big on the nag’s and dish lickers. I have bought many many systems for racing, the worst being a $9000 horse racing system called Technology 21. Nothing worked of course, however in the background I had always dabbled on sports betting and occasionally did pretty well, despite having zero knowledge of BR management, unit sizing, etc, etc. As I got older I started getting very interested in finance and the stock market and started off by buying another stupid system for $4.5K called Star Trader – another failure. It took me a long time and a lot of wasted money to learn that 99% of these systems are crap. However I continued studying finance and forcing myself to read the financial review everyday (painful) and building up my knowledge, whilst at the same time I discovered the poker craze. I used to travel around the country playing in Chess tournaments for absolute peanuts and then I heard a story about a guy who won $10K in a poker tournament… This was 8 years ago, well before NL ‘holdem and PLO became mainstream. Back then the games were weak and for 18 months I made a comfortable living travelling back and forth between Adelaide and Melbourne and beating up on guys at 2/3 and 3/5, just low limit stuff.

Like my good buddy and fellow Raiders man Rohan22no I discovered that gambling for a living is a soul depriving and truly degenerate business. I was making money no worries, I used to think I was the “king of the Adelaide Poker Zone”. My g/f worked at the cas, I was tight with all the security, I used to go to the dealers home games, one of my best mates was a boss in the poker zone, etc. I truly walked around like I owned the place. But I discovered that I don’t want to just gamble for a living. Unlike many poker players, money is not my god, I actually don’t even care about it that much, I’m a simple guy with simple tastes and in situations like when I would talk to my mum, I could tell she was embarrassed that her son played poker for a living. When people asked me what I did for work, I would make up some shit like “I trade on financial markets”, as I was also embarrassed to say yeah I’m a “professional” gambler.

Long story short I ended up losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on some very speculative decisions in the ASX. I was actually doing really well, making nearly $50K in my 1^st 6 months in the market but that turned out to be a disaster as I began thinking of myself as the next Warren Buffett and onceI started messing around with the penny stocks, especially in super speculative mining and defence markets it all went to shit. How did I have hundreds of thousands of $$ to lose in the 1^st place? I had a really bad accident in the army, it was the end of my career and I got a very large payout and a pension for life. After my stock market disaster and a long lay-off from all forms of gambling I started messing around on Betfair with trading (the object being to achieve a “green book” i.e no lose position) and eventually after months of hard work I developed my own trading system’s for NBA and tennis, and also a variation of the old classic “lay the draw” strategy for soccer. Again everything went really well and I was owning Betfair, despite being at a dis-advantage to the rest of the god damn world because of Australia’s horrible live betting laws. I seriuosly contemplated moving to NZ as I was convinced I could make $10K+ every week if only I could trade on a level playing field with the rest of the world. What happens next? Same story as my stock market trading - got too big for my boots and everything went to shit. Lost so much money so quickly I actually went on a long term tilt to the point where I would lose 2-4K on a single tennis match and the actual monetary impact of this would not even register on my psyche.

It has taken me very long hard painful road to get to where I am now. I have learnt many lessons. I have read probably 30-35 books on the combined subjects of finance, poker, sports-betting and gambling in general. Now after losing hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime of gambling I do win. Finally. I am fanatical about sports. No doubt there are people at SBR just waiting for my collapse, because no-one can handicap multiple sports successfully, right? Well I just do my own thing. I don’t care what others pre-conceived notions are. I actually only bet on sports I know. Do I really follow 10+ sports that closely? Absolutely. When I say I am obsessed with sports I mean that literally. My idea of watching relaxing TV is fox sports news, ESPN sports center, AFL360, etc. When I am driving I listen to podcasts (AFL – mondayitis, NRL – nrl unleashed, etc). When I was 15 I could name the starting 5 of every NBA team and most of the benches too. I was playing blackjack with Shane Warne and Brett Lee once at the casino and was all ready to take Warnie on in a debate on the state of Australian Cricket - I actuall thought I knew more than he did haha. I think nothing of flying down to Sydney and then straight back to Adelaide to watch 1 game of league, a $600 trip. Enough examples, you get the point…

[OZnBa Fan]

Keen to hear your thoughts mate.

Just gotta do some more research mate and when I can get to a computer ill let you know... I'm only on my mobile atm so it's a bit hard

[rohan22no]

Epic story Sando!

Another great illustration to us all that even the most successful and skillful sports bettors (i.e Sando) cant only do sports trading for a living, it can only be used alongside other income producing activities and hobbies to diversify your lifestyle. No, it doesn't mean you have to keep your day job - but its an absolute must to have other things on the go at all times.

Sidenote - I really hate the term "gambling" used in a professional context. Gambling is sitting on a poker machine, or placing bets on the races for fun, or playing roulette or any casino card games with a negative EV (expected value). Professionals devote lots of time to studying, have bankroll management as a second nature, have a system in place, track records with spreadsheets, and have tonnes of evidence to support their expectation to come out on top in their chosen ventures (sports trading, poker or whatever). Thats when it becomes simply an investment of time in exchange for money, with the curveball of variance thrown in. A far cry from "gambling"...

[MrXYZ]

Sando that is one of the best posts I have ever read in any forum.

Realising I could make money betting on sports blew my mind, could not believe it was really happening. It changes the way you look at the world forever. Started making more $$$$ than I'd ever earned previously, and most of my friends. The ego trip and confidence boost was huge, but not having to take sh#t from anyone made me arrogant and dismissive. Im still angry at myself for missing a relative's birthday because of an NRL game.

A few heavy losses brought me back to earth and taught me to respect everyone who works at a job, no matter how menial. Betting $1k, $2k even $5k a game is insane. Even more ridiculous was the couple of times betting these amounts tailing other cappers on SBR.

I don't gamble for a living anymore (the stress and isolation are too much, not to mention the health problems that come from risking thousands of dollars day in day out, and the sickness from a big loss). It's just a hobby to challenge myself and pay for stuff.

It's hard for me to recommend anyone doing it. But I was able to travel the world purely from gambling money so no regrets here. if you want it badly enough, go for it, but be prepared to pay a tremendous price for what it brings. And you have to risk serious money for the big rewards.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Looking at two massive plays this weekend, due to circumstances arising today.

Benji Marshall has asked for a release from the last 2 years of his contract at the Wests Tigers.

Parramatta CEO Ken Edwards has resigned effective immediately.

I was eyeing Parra as a massive fade this week anyway, this just reinforces the angle - Raiders ATS.

Tigers are shot, nothing to play for, their season will peter out now - Warriors ATS.

Update shortly.

[Immaculate]

Good cash back on sportsbet for origin game 3... If your team loses by less than 10 points, head to head bets are refunded.

i personally can't see NSW beating Queensland by more than 10. Assuming NSW wins

Food for thought

[Rugby21]

Warriors at-2 on bet365 has to be worth a go! Or the straight win at 1.66

[Crowing Capers]

Concerning the Foxtel Cup between Westies and Claremont.
My mates a mad bloods man involved with the club and all at the club confident they win tonight.
West 9-5 had easy win over Eagles top 5 team on weekend and have a bye next weekend.
Claremont 13-2 lost to swan districts but got a feeling rested players to go all out for tonight's game.
Being played at footy pk in what will be a prob be a low scoring game.
The line opened today west -13.5 out to 15.5 now. The market I'm on is
Westies 1-39 @ $1.98. Now into $1.89.
West Adeiaide a working class club, are nearly broke. Winner of the Mickey Mouse cup winner takes all is 100k. Westies will be going all out for this , not saying Claremont won't but at home , I'm leaning West 1-39.

Claremont beat westies by 101 points 2 years ago in this comp but Claremont had 9 AFL listed players and west played 10 debutants in that game. That result irrelevant to tonight.
GL if you betting

West Adelaide 43-27 Final score.

GF foxtel cup Aug 6th @ Footy park- West Adelaide v East Fremantle. Westies will be hard to beat chasing that 100 k winners purse...

[Steve_Gennison]

Nice cash on Washington trigga! It turned into a blowout

[OZnBa Fan]

I could kiss you trigga

[the tross]

Trigga, you little ripper!
Now bring on the state of oregano coz I'm cashed up baby.

[Lilfatbum]

Awesome stuff Trigga!

[RedDevil89]

They were predicting a sunny day 22 degrees but it had just started raining here in Sydney! Only a light shower at the moment!

[sando]

No sides or totals, just some props - actually lots of props. Probably too many for most and far more than I would normally bet (if any) but been hot with prop bets lately in NRL and AFL, so pushing my luck to the max today, and yes I do have 15% of my roll in play on 1 event - I am aware of this.

Sportsbet

2* Matt Scott Over 125.5 Metres ($1.75)
1* Corey Parker Over Metres 135.5 ($1.88)
1* Chris McQueen Under 70.5 Metres ($1.88)
0.5* Johnathon Thurston Over 12.5 Tackles ($1.88)

Luxbet

1.5* Tamou (v Woods) Most Supercoach points ($1.87)
1.5* Farrah (v Smith) Most Supercoach points ($1.73)
1.5* Bird (v Thaiday) - most run metres ($1.87)
1.5* Pearce (v Cronk) - most tackles ($1.87)
1* Tamou (v Myles) - most run metres ($1.87)
1* Aaron Woods Under 110.5 metres ($1.87)
1* James McManus Over 4.5 tackles ($1.87)
1* Michael Jennings Under 19.5 tackles ($1.80)
0.5* Chris McQueen Over 20.5 tackles ($1.87)
0.5* Greg Bird Over 1 Offloads ($2.00)
0.5* Corey Parker Over 2.5 Offloads ($1.87)
0.5* Brett Morris Over 5.5 Tackles ($1.87)
0.5* Greg Bird Over 90.5 Metres ($1.87)
0.5* Greg Inglis Over 53.5 Supercoach points ($1.87)

Unfortunately I don't have time for write up's but just for the record these selections are based on two things. A. Stats (last three games only) and B. My breakdown of how I expect the game to play out, I.e - each teams game plan/strategy. for example - notice I have the over tackles for both McManus and B-Moz - why? Because QLD had great success punishing Merritt and (to a lesser extent) B-Moz down thea side of the park and QLD/Meninga has a proven record of putting origin rookies through a "baptism of fire", and whilst McManus is not a debutant it has been a significant length of time since he played, so I fully expect QLD to employ the same tactics as in game two. Another example - both statistically and from a QLD game plan point of view Matt Scott and Corey Parker can be expected to do the bulk of the work for Queensland. Remember Scott is QLD's only genuine prop. Also it doesn't hurt that both players are in tremendous form. On the flip side Thaiday is now a tad overrated because he had ONE good game and scored the 1st try and ran over Maloney, so now many are talking him up and his run metres stats/value are slightly inflated IMO.

Is there that much value in the prop bet markets? Are the bookmakers that "off" with their lines? Absolutely not. These guys are pro's - they know what they are doing. This is simply a spectrum betting pattern where some will hit and some will miss but I would have to be way off with my analysis of the NSW & QLD game plans to lose enough of these bets to record a loss of any significance. I'm expecting to make 2-4 units from this group of bets. That's the plan anyway.

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks again trigg for the mystic play

[the tross]

Sando you're freaking me out man. Too many big words. I got as far as Matt Scott and I"ll take that and run.
Thanks as always.

[s2230011]

I had a decent look at the prop bets yesterday and was going to look at it more today. The lines for game 3 are much sharper than game 2. The two 'gift bets' Parker Over and McQueen under have both been adjusted by 25 and 20 meters respectively. So on first glance I dont see any absolute giveaways.

I have obviously read your post Sando and there alot of plays on there that I havent thought about so will keep them in mind.

A couple of things though ..

1. Homebush is generally a ground that lends itself to forward play, the 'experts' say its softer under foot and doesnt lend itself to expensive play like Suncorp. So that maybe something to consider, with the wingers play.

2. I was keen on Greg Bird too, and his meteres dropped by 10 ... so good timing but his injury puts a question mark on things.

3. Again I was keen on Tamou, considering he is the most senior prop in the side and his club figures have been good lately, but its hard to bet on 120 M when he only made 50 in game one.

4. I heard a suggestion that Maloney might start from the bench, I guess it would mean Bird into 5/8 and Cordiner or Watmough at lock, tbh I like the move, but keep an ear out for the rest of the day.

5. Thaiday's performance was highlighted but his figures were ordinary ... 52 M in game 2. He has gone under in both games so its interesting.

Leans ... I am looking into Robbie Farah and Brent Tate from a stats prespective they look quite interesting.

[s2230011]

Lines have moved since yesterday ... but interestingly Slater and Dugan were set to 125 despite being set at 145 and 140 respectively last game ... already people are driving this up and Dugan has gone to 130

I like Robbie Farah O61.5 Supercoach points last night, I dont do much supercaoch, but I expect a huge game from the new captain .. he just exceeded that number in both games but keep in mind he sat on the bench for a fair few minutes, that will not happen with Reynolds out of the side. That line is now gone and short ... bloody hell

[the tross]

Lines have moved since yesterday ... but interestingly Slater and Dugan were set to 125 despite being set at 145 and 140 respectively last game ... already people are driving this up and Dugan has gone to 130

I like Robbie Farah O61.5 Supercoach points last night, I dont do much supercaoch, but I expect a huge game from the new captain .. he just exceeded that number in both games but keep in mind he sat on the bench for a fair few minutes, that will not happen with Reynolds out of the side. That line is now gone and short ... bloody hell

whats your thoughts on any props involving fading G.Bird, if for example the Toads can successfully work over his suspect ankle and hobble the poor bastard.

[s2230011]

He is tough bastard ... but I dont think we should gamble on that, who knows how bad the injury is, there are 25 other players on the field.

I am sure that the forward rotation will be quite different tonight. NSW bench was much more effective in gaining meters last game and with an extra forward on the bench there will be less minutes for the starters.

Qld also i think Papali will get more minutes he added something when he came on in Game 2, Teo and Gillett have been quite good too, so I expect McQueen to potentially play a lesser role, but a line of 70 doesnt leave much room for error.

[s2230011]

*shouldn't

[gimps_77]

I cant recall a series where the mom isnt a halfback or 5/8
so far lewis and smith

Im tempted to go for cronk at $7 or either maloney/farah

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Who trusts Farah?
He's prone to making a clanger at crucial times.
I can't believe he's the fav for MOTM.

[RedDevil89]

You would have to go with who you think will win the game, based on what i think im going with QLD and i'd probably go with Cronk or Thurston.