Worth takin 100.5 on luxbet?
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Hey Davo,
I wish I could contribute to the forum more with sports picks, but I know enough to know I dont know enough. But - where I think I am as good as anyone is mental game, bankroll management and experience/life as a professional gambler.
The 10x$20 units would be optimal, but you'd basically have to be a robot. Fact is that your human, you're bored to death with betting $20 and it wont hurt a bit if you lose it (that's basically what you mean when you said "I don't get a kick from the $20 plays", right?). If you attempt it, the inevitable will happen, you'll get bored, bet bigger or go all in, and lose it. Rinse and repeat. Classic gamblers cycle.
Time to take it seriously - save up $1000 (yes it might take a while, but you're disciplined now right?) and have 20x$50 units. That way you'll be betting enough that it hurts a bit if you lose (so you'll make more selective plays), but you wont bust your roll with a few losses.
So assuming that all goes well, you'll start building your roll - get it up to 1500....1700....KEEP the same unit size, do not increase it. Make regular withdrawals - something like once a month, the total balance over $1500 you withdraw (i.e your balance is $1940 at the end of the month, so you withdraw $440) so you always start from 1500 again with the $50 units. Do this for 6+ months. Grind out the +EV bets. The objective of this is to get you into the habit and mindset of being a professional and having proper BR management (and winning a little bit along the way). Yes, its fu@king boring, but that is the life of a grinder. The goal here is to SUPPLEMENT your existing income, not replace it.
You mention blowing your roll after a loss. Everyone goes through losses, the difference between a pro and a fish is how you deal with it. No one likes it. Fish/Squares go on tilt and go all in. Pros on the other hand do it differently - Look at our buddy Sando. Read back through this thread and look for Sandos tough times - Sando HATES losing (more than anyone here, he repeats it often) but then what? He channels the pain of the loss into studying harder. Some of Sandos best write ups and plays are immediately following a tough period. The thought of going all in or tilting does not even enter Sandos head.
Re: not working at all. I was a semi-pro gambler (making significantly more from it than my real job) for 3 years (maybe more) before I took the plunge and quit my real job. I have been a pro gambler (90% poker, 10% sports betting/other) since then. One thing I have learned in that time is that you cant ONLY be a professional gambler, it just doesnt work. You go mental. I've seen it happen plenty of times to personal friends of mine.
So, when I say I am a pro gambler - I mean my main source of income is from gambling - but, I also invest in real estate, play in a band for extra $ on weekends, have dabbled in guitar tutoring and other business ideas, and have 3-4 SOLID other hobbies that are completely unrelated to gambling. Cause when gambling isnt going smoothly, which is a lot of the time, you need other things to take your mind off it.
Sorry if too much poker lingo crept into that, its my background. Davo, I hope yourself and others find this post constructive and I look forward to seeing your plans and progress in the coming months.
Cheers
RohanComment -
Great post rohan . Food for thought. God i love this space.Comment -
Jorge Tafua Over 135.5 metres ($1.87 Luxbet) – Red hot. Capable of running 200+ metres every single week. Snake will happily defer toTafua in open space.
Kalifa Faifai Loa Over 30.5 Super Coach points ($1.88Sportsbet) or Over 110.5 metres ($1.87 Luxbet) – Explosive runner who doesn’t get many chances to impress for the Cowboys. Very fast and strong finisher.
Justin Horo Over 44.5 Supercoach points (sportsbet) Solid in every scoring facet for supercoach, tackles, hit up’s, etc. Will take the lead in the 2nd row with Choc out and should have a slightly higher output than normal. Robert Lui Under 19.5 Tackles ($1.88 Sportsbet) – He carries 90% of the offensive burden tonight for the Cowboys. Not official plays, but seeing as everyone seems to loves their NRL prop bets....
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Marty Bowen inComment -
Auto correct .. Matty Bowen inComment -
Yea only ones I've seen who are semi pro do it through poker - a path I considered until I realise how retarded most poker players are and how boring it is to spend hours in front of a screen playing cards (no offense to you Rohan - sounds like you are an exception that has their shit together).
To make enough money on sports you need to have either inside knowledge or go deep on one sport and build a model that take advantage of market inefficiencies. Haralabos Voulgaris has done this with NBA totals - google him to see what I mean.
I've built $10k bankroll's myself, but the opportunity cost of the time to do it versus doing my real job isn't there any more. Once you're on big corporate money it's not +EV unless you're betting big, ie $1K+ units. And then you need an edge you won't find on Internet forums.
95% of sports gamblers are losers and most can't admit it, and of that 5% most would earn better $/hour working at Maccas. Most of us do it for the entertainment, to put our money where our mouth is and to make the game that little bit more interesting.Comment -
Bowen in and line has gone up from -8 to -8.5 on Pinny, lolComment -
I respectfully disagree Benny. I can beat multiple sports "straight up", and have been getting more and more consistent over the last few years (of a 17 year career). I've had 5 winning season in AFL in a row. I make regular withdrawals, but am very tricky and have not been restricted at any site (although I have 15-16 accounts and a half dozen dormant accounts). I try to place every single wager I can on Pinny, as they couldn't care less if you win or lose, although Pinny's markets on AFL & NRL are severely limited. I do spend 15-20+ hours on my plays every week, so essentially it is a part time job anyway. I also know 2 other people are consistent regular winners, 1 in NRL and another in multiple sports (tennis mainly).Comment -
So are u saying to withdraw frequently? I just let the bankroll build up...Comment -
Manly looking avgComment -
Avg? They are penetrating this game right up!Comment -
8 point lead. Now hold on manly 4fs!!
Make that 14 - cash it! Another great tip from Sando in demand-o!Comment -
Sando! Sando!Comment -
Cheers Sando; went hard on the silvertails tonight with you guys.
Look forward to your origin plays.Comment -
Well done Sando. Was on Manly too, Brett Stewart put them back in it for a second.
Kite hit the over, but the bigger play on Stewart will be touch and go. Nrl.com the official stats site has him 86, but fox sports has him at 106, typically nrl will make an adjustment tonight or tomorrow. So I'm sure they will give him more than 86 but not sure whether he gets there. He had a very very quite game ... Fingers crossed.Comment -
I hear that mate, absolutely love ITM cup. I really hope your around for it. Maybe we can revive our old rugby thread? Dust off the cobwebs haha. Yeah I tailed you on the Kite over, made perfect sense, cheers. Didn't touch Snake, because I already had Tafua.Comment -
Is ITM cup betting offered widely on Aussie books?Comment -
Tafua lapped it today, I actually think there is value on Williams and would have taken him today if the bookie offered it, he is a lot more involved than early in the season, time to jump on.
Lui is 20 tackles on fox sports, so keep an eye out, hopefully they don't change it for you.Comment -
Yea you're probably one of the 5% Sando I'll grant that. But you are the exception in how you manage your bankroll, study the game and know your sports, and I figure this is not your professional income but just a side gig.
I've done OK at most sports but never lost an AFL season either (though i have an unusual strategy) but my point is simply that as I earn more in the real world it becomes less and less attractive from an investing perspective to be a sports better. I'd have to be wagering amounts that would get me banned at most books other than Pinny, for starters.
So the question is not just, can you make a living betting sports but will you make most money doing so. Even those that can in theory make money (and this is at best 5% of betters, though 50% probably delude themselves they have what it takes) are probably better off spending that same time in other pursuits. Successful sports betting never leaves your CV in better shape.
For me now I'm better off being happy being marginal profitable and spending more time building my wealth elsewhere.
Great work tonight on the Eagles by the way - I actually think they had a pretty poor game error and discipline wise and still won by 20.
They will be a definite finals contender.Comment -
How's this for a bizzare trend - lost almost every 2 unit play, however more importantly have won every single large play (2.5 units and higher). Pretty happy with that. Spreadsheet has been sorted by unit size (not date) in this example.
Last edited by sando; 07-15-13, 06:14 AM.Comment -
Sando , congrats on cashing the big Manly play tonight. Helped me recover from my average day in WNBA getting burnt on late player withdrawals.
Im curious to ask how you personally determine your unit allocation to each play? Is it based purely on your projected outcome of the game or is there more to it? You seem to have your unit management and allocations towards each play down pat.Comment -
Apologies to the guys that tailed me today in WNBA, got a pretty rough result thanks to Atlanta showing up with half of their normal team and loosing to Seattle. As soon as I read Oznba's post about the line dropping to -4, I had a real bad feeling we were gonna get buried again. This is where I like NBA so much more, If Kobe wakes up one morning and sneezes, it will be on rotoworld.com as a headline in the matter of minutes. The WNBA relies on small websites who probably pickup off twitter feeds to post injury updates.
I remember a couple of seasons back in the NBA, I had a 12 game parlay going on a saturday schedule of games (12 game parlays arnt my thing any more) and my last leg was Orlando to win head to head against can't remember who. 1 hour before the game the line changes to Orlando +22, got onto espn and rotoworld to read that 6 players had gastro and would not play. This was back when Dwight, Hedu, Anderson and Nelson were all in the mix. Would have been a monster parlay to hit, but these things happen in sports which are out of our control unless you wait until last minute to put your money down and loosing any early line value.Comment -
Brett Stewart changed to 122m
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Brett Stewart cashes :0)
Fox sports had him having 10 runs, nrl had 9. When that happens you know they missed one and it will go up but thought it will be touch and go.
You gotta keep an eye on fox sports if it is close cause it always changes. We'll take it. 2 from two last night!Comment -
Anyone have a lean on the foxtel cup game tonight?
I'm liking Claremont at the line. I think they have more than enough talent to win outright and you could see they were cruising in this weekends wafl game in apparent preparation for tonights semi final.
Only worry is the travel, it seems to affect these state based teams more so than the fully professional clubs.Last edited by Cobra Kai; 07-16-13, 12:49 AM.Comment -
Coopertrooper follows the foxtel cup, he’s the man you want to talk too.
Call me crazy butI really like the Roo’s against the Blues this w/e. Regardless of everything that has happened this season, (and all the money the roos have cost me) I have no doubt that the Roo-boys have the superior list. Carlton overrated in my humble opinion. The Roos need to seriously look at their leadership group, Swallow cannot captain this team. Also very interested in Port over the Sainter’s. Just my instincts at the moment, nothing more. Have zero interest in any sports other than State of Origin at the moment.Comment -
Is bet365 not working for anyone else is it just me?!Comment -
Hanging out for your game 3 origin selections Sando...Comment
