Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

BONUS PLAY: CFL 1-0 overall

Montreal -7 vs Winnipeg 1x 1.95
Similar story to last week and Montreal should get the job done at home after giving up a big lead last week but still covering. Lots of positional changes late in the day - 4x players OUT for Winnipeg while Montreal backs up almost unchanged.
Rolling 1x on the crazy world of CFL for a bonus play. GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 47-4-36 +11.19

Round 17

Play #1
Storm vs Broncos UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95
Storm defense has been woeful and their attack not much better. Usually we'd be getting 34-36 for this matchup but pts stats for both sides have been higher than usual. This should tighten tonight - Storm desperately need a win and will look to slow play down / formulate some set moves. Have this match at 30pts and rolling 1x UNDER. GL

[ExodusNZ]

NRL Season 2013 47-4-36 +11.19

Round 17

Play #1
Storm vs Broncos UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95
Storm defense has been woeful and their attack not much better. Usually we'd be getting 34-36 for this matchup but pts stats for both sides have been higher than usual. This should tighten tonight - Storm desperately need a win and will look to slow play down / formulate some set moves. Have this match at 30pts and rolling 1x UNDER. GL

Hey mate, 1 or 2 units ?

[rohan22no]

Anything for Sharks/Tigers game TG?

BOL this weekend!

Looks like a pretty big upset in the CFL with Winnipeg getting up.

[ultrasouth]

Hey mate, 1 or 2 units ?

1X.

[That Guy]

1X.

Sorry.. 2x units
Model at 30 and UNDER at 38pts - big differential

[angelo63]

Excellent work That Guy

Great work mate, never really looked in doubt, although i was hoping Smith missed the last kick to save any last minute heart attacks.

[Crowing Capers]

Cheers TG
Appreciate your work as always

[aussieH]

Great work buddy. NRL guru

[Coopertrooper]

Great stuff TG, topped off a good night

[ultrasouth]

Good work TG keep it up

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 48-4-36 +13.09

Round 17 1-0

Play #2
Dragons vs Roosters UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Classic UNDER match from two sides that have a history of grindfests. Roosters defense is on the improve and Jubilee Oval is a favoured inner suburban UNDER venue. Dragons have been running defensive drills all week after gifting the Panthers 25pts last week, so we should see an improved effort. Roosters on the other hand remain solid, shutting out the Sea Eagles last week and allowing only 2 tries. Thought we'd see an open of 34pts for the total and we're getting some value at 36.5. Model has this one at 29pts and rolling 1x UNDER. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-36 +14.04

Round 17 2-0
Great to snag another win with the Roosters staying under 36.5 (just).

Play #3
Rabbitohs vs Warriors OVER 44 1x 2.05
Rabbitohs should be back on form to crush the Warriors in Perth tonight. Both sides have extremely strong forward packs and should put pressure on the opposition to maintain momentum. This should be a fast paced game with plenty of points, add Reynolds amazing boot (17/22) and Shaun Johnson (18/22) and we should get lots of extra 2 pointers.
Have this match up at 48pts and rolling 1x OVER. GL

[sando]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-36 +14.04

Round 17 2-0
Great to snag another win with the Roosters staying under 36.5 (just).

Play #3
Rabbitohs vs Warriors OVER 44 1x 2.05
Rabbitohs should be back on form to crush the Warriors in Perth tonight. Both sides have extremely strong forward packs and should put pressure on the opposition to maintain momentum. This should be a fast paced game with plenty of points, add Reynolds amazing boot (17/22) and Shaun Johnson (18/22) and we should get lots of extra 2 pointers.
Have this match up at 48pts and rolling 1x OVER. GL

Couldn't have said it better myself. Playing the same total. Good luck mate.

[That Guy]

Couldn't have said it better myself. Playing the same total. Good luck mate.

Thanks mate,, GL

[aussieH]

Any plays tonight?

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-37 +13.04

Round 18
Apologies for lack of updates - haven't seen any plays I've liked over the last few games.

Play #1
Eels vs Panthers OVER 44 1x 1.95
Could not expect a setup for a more looser game. Eels form has been awful and dropping Sandow will create some instability in the middle. Penrith should belt the Eels even if they have a history of bouncing back from big losses. Panthers have put on some big scores and the weakness in the Eels should be exposed.. Tipping we'll at least get 1 or 2 tries from the Eels which will help push the OVER. Have this one at 49 on the model and rolling 1x OVER 44. GL

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #2
Bulldogs vs Storm UNDER 38 2x 1.95
Not much time for a writeup. Getting a higher than usual total for this game - had it pegged at 34. Storm have been hitting overs but away from home against Bulldogs who should have a tightened defensive line - this looks good. Rolling 2x UNDER. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-39 +10.04

Round 18 0-2

Ummm.. 38-0 and you hit a field goal with 1min to roll?!
Worst beat EVER in NRL - reminds me of NBA matches. WTF?
Do not regret calling that for an UNDER - just a bad bad beat. Ergh

[hjrozay]

Agreed. Sisa Waqa losing the ball late in the game in decent field position didn't help either.

That is definitely up there with the early round game coincidently involving Canterbury verse Parramatta where no points scored in the 2nd half except this time Canterbury roll on the Storm. To pile 27 points.

Unlucky TG. Feeling this one with you.

[fitguy67]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-39 +10.04

Round 18 0-2

Ummm.. 38-0 and you hit a field goal with 1min to roll?!
Worst beat EVER in NRL - reminds me of NBA matches. WTF?
Do not regret calling that for an UNDER - just a bad bad beat. Ergh

bang on (and painfully so)

[aussieH]

I had 38.5. Watched the game on delay and could not believe they kicked a field goal in the last seconds. Unbelievable.


Great play though TG you know your NRL brother.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-39 +10.04

Round 18 0-2

Ummm.. 38-0 and you hit a field goal with 1min to roll?!
Worst beat EVER in NRL - reminds me of NBA matches. WTF?
Do not regret calling that for an UNDER - just a bad bad beat. Ergh

Sickening beat because it was at the death, but let's be fair - the Dogs scored 8 tries and their kicker has been slotting them at over 90% this year, but only managed 3 from 8 today.
This game should have gone over way earlier, if the sin bin/penalty try was awarded and with the Storm player knocking on over the try line.

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #3
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95
Trying to salvage a weekend that could turn out to be my worst ever over the past 2years. Has this play ready to roll last night but got a little gun shy after the crazy variance we saw at the Bulldogs game.. so.. had another look. Cowboys have the guts ripped out of their side and the replacement players rate pretty well on the defense side of things - attack is another matter however. Sea Eagles will be hungry for a win and despite putting a big score on the Eels last week they've been pretty woeful. Expecting a strong game from Manly but not one that blows the roof off.. Model has this one at 32pts which makes it a 2x play. GL

[ExodusNZ]

Adding:

Play #3
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95
Trying to salvage a weekend that could turn out to be my worst ever over the past 2years. Has this play ready to roll last night but got a little gun shy after the crazy variance we saw at the Bulldogs game.. so.. had another look. Cowboys have the guts ripped out of their side and the replacement players rate pretty well on the defense side of things - attack is another matter however. Sea Eagles will be hungry for a win and despite putting a big score on the Eels last week they've been pretty woeful. Expecting a strong game from Manly but not one that blows the roof off.. Model has this one at 32pts which makes it a 2x play. GL

You think Manly will cover the -8 ?

[rohan22no]

oh shit...TG on the under and XYZ on the over...

[Sol]

You will bounce back TG. The origin impacted rounds can be a bit of a nightmare. Better luck next week.

[aussieH]

Lets get them next time. You are having a great year buddy

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 49-4-40 +8.04

Round 18 0-3
Worst round EVER.. burn burn burn. Ohh well always next week I guess.
Funny how variance can bite - 2x plays within 2pts in last 2 rounds and could have been looking at +16units rather than +8 units.
Yuck. Should have played Sea Eagles -8.

[Punchy]

Manly scored 34 but were not that impressive as stated in your write up

[MrXYZ]

Mate I thought my play was on trouble when you posted the under. Origin rounds are too unpredictable. You either get lacklustre games or players taking the opportunity to be the big hero while the superstars are absent.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 49-4-40 +8.04

Round 1
Back at it after a hella of a week last round...... let's get em'!


Play #1
Raiders vs Eels UNDER 44.5 1x 1.95
Despite taking a beating the Eels did well to control the points last week and face an opposition that are not as imposing as Sea Eagles or Sharks. On a cold day in Canberra this game looks the goods for an UNDER play. We just need the Eels to stay in the game for at least the first 30mins without cracking. Have this at 38pts and rolling 1x UNDER. GL

Play #2
Roosters vs Sharks UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
This was the matchup last year where the halftime score was 4-all and the final score 14-14. Not too much has changed and the Roosters defensive minded game is still pretty solid. These teams are setup for a classic grindfest and the Sharks PPG average has been way down over the last 6 rounds. Have this one at 26pts and rolling on the UNDER 1x. GL

Play #3
Sea Eagles vs Titans OVER 40 3x 1.95
I like this game for a lot of reasons. Cherry-Evans and Watmough as likely starters should carve up the Titans and based on Sea Eagles strength alone they could cover 90% of the 40pts we need for this one. Gold Coast are extremely weak and without Myles, Bird and Taylor they lack any serious bite. Titans away game stats heavily favour the OVER and their points against figure away from home is easily the highest in the NRL. Titans were thumped by the Knights and Panthers the last 2 games and a repeat looks more than likely. Sea Eagles were not overly impressive against the Cowboys but still managed to ply on points. Expecting them to push this game into the high 40's and rolling 3x OVER 40. GL

[Crowing Capers]

Great to see TG up and about ready to smash the books, big 3 unit play involved

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Dave Taylor has been named in team and looks likely to play.
There is also talk that Zillman may make a return tomorrow too.

[aussieH]

Had over 40.5 in the sharks game. Was looking good at the half