Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 31-27 +7.45 units

Round 7

Play #1
Broncos -6.5 vs Raiders 2x 1.92
Locking this in nice and early. The line has been bouncing around on this one, starting at -7.5 and -8 in some books before shifting to -6 after Ben Te'o was found guilty of a high tackle and suspended from this week's match. The line is sitting at -6.5 in most places which is great value and Te'o missing this week shouldn't affect the Broncos too much.
Raiders struggle in Brisbane and have their worst away record at Suncorp Stadium. Last week they were made to look good by a Warriors side that was never in the game and threw in the towel early. Brisbane are performing well and are yet to hit their straps - I expect them to perform well infront of a big home crowd against an injury ridden Raiders side.
I have this game with the Broncos winning by 14 points, so Broncos -6.5 is a 2x play from mine. GL

[s2230011]

This is weird .. the line opened at 7.5. Now the line on CB is 6.5 .. but on tab its 9.5 (2.00 Broncos -9.5 1.80 Raiders +9.5 ) ... something doesnt add up ... Teo is out which i agree isnt that big deal but Wallace is out too ... at least according to the news bulletin on radio. To be honest, I think the line on Tuesday factored in Teo is out, cause he was already suspended and needed to fight to have a chance in getting off, which was always unlikely. Now that Wallace is out the line moves for canberra ?! Anyone there is a big discrepency in the lines of CB and TAB atm. I was more than happy to take the +9.5 value .. with Wallace out.

No doubt Brisbane is a better team but two things stick in mind for me ... One, they bomb tries and two they let in quick tries. Against the Dragons, the Tigers and the Cowboys they conceded quick tries, I cant recall their other games off the top of my head. But these two facts lead to the fact that they dont blow sides out that they probably should, which gives this 9.5 point buffer.

It will come down to which Raiders come on the day, if they are ready to play, they can be very dangerous, and this game will be a coin toss but if the laclusture Raiders rock up then it might be a long night, but still we might get two quick tries and cover.

Anyway, good luck with you -6.5 hope we both cash

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 31-27 +7.45 units

Round 7

Play #2
Dragons vs Knights UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95
This game looks very good for a solid under. The Knights will be in pure defensive mode playing the away game at WIN Stadium and have done well limiting points in tight games. If the Dragons play structured attack and grind away a win the UNDER will hit. Last time these teams met the total was 30pts and I have this game at 26pts on my model. Wayne Bennett has flagged the Knights loose sliding defense as a major concern - so I think this game holds up well and Bennett will have a better read on the Dragons 7 games in. It should turn into a game of chess on the footy field and I'm jumping on the UNDER 1x.
GL

[benrama]

I have this game at 30 points so the under looks like the play, BOL TG.

[Degenerate]

Good call on the under mate.

I really like the Rabbitohs ML at $2.45, any thoughts?

[Domestic]

They're going to have to start setting St George totals in the high 20's soon.

[That Guy]

I have this game at 30 points so the under looks like the play, BOL TG.

cheers mate.. hope you cashed it. Model working well so far?

[That Guy]

Good call on the under mate.

I really like the Rabbitohs ML at $2.45, any thoughts?

Cheers Degen.
Rabbitohs at a great price but the unpredictable form of NZ is worrying. Apparently Ropati will be playing FB and there will be a few other positional changes... still looking at this game but Rabbitohs at 2.45 is pretty good value.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 33-27 +10.24 units

Round 7 2-0
Some good plays last night that never looked in doubt. Broncos rising to the occasion and Dragons continuing the trend of being a solid under against teams with structured attack / defense.

Play #3
Storm vs Bulldogs OVER 41.5 1x 1.95
Not much time for a write up...
Storm should be too strong for the Dogs and put on a lot of points. They've been a safe over side and I have this game at 44 points.
Storm AVG pts per game is sitting at 33 points alone and if the Bulldogs are competitive this afternoon the over cashes.
GL

Play #4
Cowboys -2.5 vs Roosters 1x 1.94
Cowboys in the heat in Darwin should win this. The Total over/under is a coin toss so not playing that. Roosters have players missing and their left side defense should be exposed by the Cowboys.
GL

Play#5
Sea Eagles vs Titans OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Should be lots of points in this game. Despite the Titans defense holding up well in their past beatings they should be exposed tonight at Brookvale. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 35-28 +11.13 units

Round 7 4-1
Glad the Sea Eagles OVER cashed despite the result going the other way. Cowboys never looked in doubt as well... so a good result for the night. Unfortunate that the Storm didn't come out firing and lay on the points as was expected.
Rolling on with some plays tomorrow:

Play#6
Warriors vs Rabbitohs ML 1x 2.40
This is a value play and we're getting good money for a Rabbitohs side that is starting to look the goods. NZ still has the reputation of being hard to beat at home but mentally this team have been well off their game. Rabbitohs will have much needed confidence after a convincing win last week against the dogs.
This game will be decided by the forwards battle and the Rabbitohs should have the upper hand despite the loss of Asotasi and Burgess. Ropati is rumored to be playing fullback for the Warriors in a last minute positional swap, but it shouldn't be a game breaker. Squares will be all over NZ at home for the bounce back but smart money is on the Rabbitohs this week. My model has the Rabbitohs winning by 6 points and I'm grabbing the value at 2.40 to play this 1x.
GL

[That Guy]

added:

Play #7
Sharks vs Eels UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
This is a perfect storm for another Sharks UNDER provided the Eels maintain some dignity and defend well. The Sharks win games with defense and put on little points - they are the best defensive side in the league and the second worst attacking side in AVG points. The Eels cannot perform worse then they did last week and we should see a much better defensive effort - party because they really have nothing in attack. I have this game set at 28points, which although low is much higher than recent Sharks totals.
I'm locking this in 1x and believe the Eels will somewhat hold up against the Sharks.

GL

[That Guy]

updated Round 7 end: NRL Season 2012 35-30 +9.13 units

Round 7 4-3
Finished the round in positive territory. Disappointed the Sharks game was a tale of 2 halves with the UNDER missing out by only a few points - 1st half a try fest and only 6 points scored in the second half.
A break from club football this week with the test and we're back to it next week.

Good luck

[That Guy]

Anyone got any leans on the ANZAC test tonight?
Over always seems like a good play with these games.. but haven't had a chance to look at it

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 35-30 +9.13 units

Round 8
Back to it after a week's rest with some good looking plays for this round. Beware of the "week off curse".. expect to see some games going against the grain after 1 week off.
Looking forward to some NRL action tomorrow and keen to lock in some plays. Good luck.

Play #1
Dragons -6.5 vs Roosters 1x 1.95
The Roosters should struggle under pressure in this match as they have done in previous ANZAC Day clashes. Dragons have gone thru their 'mini slump' and are back to trademark tight defence and completing sets. If they do that they win this one easy against a Roosters side that seemingly offers nothing at the moment in attack or defence. Matt Cooper will strengthen an already strong Dragons backline that should find some room to move if they complete sets and remain focused .
Dragons should win by 12 points or more on my model. So I'm going with this play for 1x @ 1.95
GL

Play #2
Storm vs Warriors OVER 36.5 1x 1.95
Warriors have been good at leaking points in defence and trying to win games in attack. So far they've been very sloppy and should be made to pay for it against the Storm who are at home. Warriors normally put a good fight against the Storm and sharps are backing them to win this week. This game could go against the Storm but whoever wins I'm confident there will be lots of points on the board. Last time these teams met the total was 32, but that was in finals conditions and the play should be much looser this time.
Total should be around 44 points which makes this a lock. GL

[Crowing Capers]

Yeah agree dragons easily, with the Storm game big revenge factor for the Storm after last seasons prelim....
Storm owe me nothing this season so very happy to take the -6.5 on them again and will tail on your overs.
Let's get em TG

[That Guy]

Yeah agree dragons easily, with the Storm game big revenge factor for the Storm after last seasons prelim....
Storm owe me nothing this season so very happy to take the -6.5 on them again and will tail on your overs.
Let's get em TG

Good luck mate.. hope the 'week off curse' stays away on these plays

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 36-31 +9.08

Round 8 1-1
Nailed the totals play for the Storm but unlucky not to get the Dragons hit, which leaves us about evens for the day. As expected the week's rest has started throwing up some interesting stats. Played the Dragons ML live at half time when things started looking dicey but not including that in any results.
Leaning towards just totals plays this weekend in a tough situational round. Money management is key at this time in the season as we head towards Origin.
GL for the rest of the round.

[kingsr]

Nice one TG...love the disciplined approach around this time of the season.

[benrama]

Good work TG, I was on the Storm/Warriors over, didn't think it would hit actually but the late flurry got there easily in the end. How about them Dragons though, what a disaster they are turning out to be. I was on them on the ML in a parlay, so hit by a miracle - they were well and truly outplayed, Roosters were the better and more aggressive team all day and really should have won by at least a try. Roosters will move well away from the cellar if they can keep playing like that.

[That Guy]

Good work TG, I was on the Storm/Warriors over, didn't think it would hit actually but the late flurry got there easily in the end. How about them Dragons though, what a disaster they are turning out to be. I was on them on the ML in a parlay, so hit by a miracle - they were well and truly outplayed, Roosters were the better and more aggressive team all day and really should have won by at least a try. Roosters will move well away from the cellar if they can keep playing like that.

Cheers mate. I agree. Roosters and Warriors are tuning into the hardest sides to read - never know what you're going to get. Flogged by Cowboys one week and dominating the Dragons the next round. Great hit on the late ML.

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 36-31 +9.08

Round 8 1-1
Only one play tomorrow night. Bulldogs / Sea Eagles numbers look about right and a play on that much would just be guessing at this stage. Should be a great game to watch though... good to see some early totals come out and I've made a lock for Sat night (since when did they release them on Thursday?!?). Anyway.. books must feel confident but hopefully we can prove them wrong and catch some great early numbers.
Good luck

Play #3
Broncos vs Titans UNDER 40.5 2x 1.90
I expect the under to get hammered for this match and even though the total has just been released at my book it's dropped 5c after 20mins. This game should go way under at around 32 points but the books are leaning towards a Broncos whitewash given the line is -12.5
Titans should hold their own in this game and keep it tight, after thumping the Sea Eagles they will be full of confidence. All we need is a quiet 15mins for the UNDER to hit. Broncos have had trouble closing out games against teams under the pump and UNDER's against sides like the Tigers and Souths have hit easily. Add to that a week's rest for both sides and I'm playing this 2x for a sliding 1.90
GL

Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Cowboys OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
These two teams should put on a try fest like previous seasons where the total regularly hits in the 50-60 range. With Nathan Merritt expected to return and team up with Inglis at the back there should be more points on offer for the Rabbitohs. Expect their PPG average to rise with try scoring freak Merritt returning and playing the Cowboys this week is a boon. Cowboys have the second highest points per game average and aren't short of scoring options. This game should end up around 44 and to add in the Merritt factor makes this a play at 1x 1.95 on my books.
GL

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 37-31 +10.88

Round 8 2-1
Good result with the Broncos UNDER... roll on to tomorrow night.

[kingsr]

Nice one TG...looked ominous in first half but they slowed down in the second

[That Guy]

Adding 1x unit to the Rabbitohs vs Cowboys OVER 40.5... 1x 1.95 and added 1x 1.80
Has lost value to 1.80 at my book but I still think this is a great play. Both teams love to throw it around and this should be a classic OVER game.
GL

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 37-32 +8.88

Round 8 2-2
Unlucky not to get the OVER tonight in the Rabbitohs game.. with 20mins gone and 20-nil the live OVER was 52 points. It looked for all money to cash well into the second half as well.
More play to come for tomorrow to get back on track.

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 37-32 +8.88

Round 8 2-2

Play #5
Raiders vs Sharks UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Sharks have been solid in defense and this should continue against the Raiders. The game should play out to about 32 points and looking at both teams recent performances it could be even lower. I'm locking this in for 1x
GL


Play #6
Eels vs Tigers -5.5 1x 1.90
Tigers should be all over this game and outclass the Eeels who are playing with several injuries and a new halfback after Chris Sandow was shafted. Expect the Tigers to play with more confidence after their win last Round and they should dominate the fringes.
I'm rolling with the Tigers for 1x and expect they'll cover the 5.5 points easily. GL

Play #7
Knights vs Panthers UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
This total is set low for a reason - we have two teams with low PPG figures per game and low points conceded per game.
The Panthers should succeed in slowing down the Knights go forward and if they do this under hits. The Knights are specialists at controlling points and we shouldn't see them leak too many Panthers tries. This game should end up around the 28 points mark if the Panther's defense is reasonably stable - which I think it will be after a week's rest.
I'm playing this for 1x. GL

[Sol]

Tigers....unreal.

[benrama]

Yep - crazy, crazy game, I wasn't on the Tigers -5.5 but if you were that has to be one of the bad beats of all time!

[s2230011]

I went big on Tigers -5.5 and I went big on the Under 62.5 line offered for the Sharks Raiders game at HT. Lost both with the last play of the game ... both were just as bad.

I super liked both so I went hard on both and told myself no way they both loose so I was safe. Money mangement ..

[Domestic]

You got a nice total line on the Monday night game, best of luck.

[Degenerate]

You can still get the under 36.5 at pinnacle.

[hawley]

Was in shock watching that Eels game.

The Tigers switched off completely with 15 to go.

[hjrozay]

It seems like the new attention by the referees on the ten metres and ruck have had an effect on totals with majority of games going over. I feel with the media attention on scrutinizing the attacking play may see a lot more open games between the middle teams.

[That Guy]

Round 8 Final Updated: NRL Season 2012 37-34 +5.88
That old chestnut variance killed 2 solid plays that should have cashed and were the right play. West Tigers had the game easily covered against the Eels and the Rabbitohs vs Cowboys game with 20-nil after 20mins should have well & truly gone OVER. Can deal with a bad call on the Sharks / Raiders but the 3 units that slipped away were just bad bad beats.
Looking ahead to re-gain momentum next week without the 'week off curse". GL this week with your plays

[benrama]

Tigers game was up there with the worst bad beats I've seen in my career betting - and I wasn't even on the spread! Don't know about you, but I'm finding totals basically impossible to pick at the moment though, even Newcastle as well as they played offensively could have easily gone for 20-24 tonight - against the Panthers.

Round 9 is the last round before SOO starts to throw a few curve balls, so good time to buckle down and keep making solid plays.