Thatguy's NRL Plays

That Guy · 03-27-12, 04:31 AM

Good observation S22
I'd like to see a breakdown of stats where points in the second half exceed points in the first half.
Despite thinking the points might go over early on the Tigers / Raiders the total only when up after it was 6 all at 10mins to 48.5
It then dropped to 41.5 and remained there till about the 68th minute. Was close to playing the over with 20 to go. Most avid Rugby League fans would have spotted the Tigers throwing in the towel with lackluster defense Same deal with Raiders - knew they had it won and an last minute tries by the Tigers wouldn't have mattered.

s2230011 · 03-27-12, 06:34 PM

Just had a closer look at things this morning ... here is a breakdown of the number of games so far this year in terms of points scored by HT

15points and Under => 10 ( these are way under any total)
16 points => 3
17 points =>1
18 points =>1
19 points =>0
20 points =>1
21 points =>0
22 points =>2
23 points =>1
24 points =>4
25 points =>0
26 points =>3
27 points =>0
28 points =>1
30 points or over =>2 (way over)

So the most popular are 16, 24 and 26. And only 4 games fell between 18 and 24. I would have thought more games finish up on 18, but still I think that anything over 18 will be at least 22 points (only 1 game fell in that range) which means if you are under 18.5 and miss it will more than likely be by a fair margin and will have a very decent margin live. Anyway ...

That Guy · 03-30-12, 01:27 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-17 +4 units

Back to it for another week and some good opportunities tonight. Not much time for a write up so I'll keep it brief

Play #1
Storm vs Knights UNDER 36.5 1x 1.80
There is a reason this total is set so low. The Wayne Bennett machine will be working overtime to shut down the Storm like they did last weekend against the Bulldogs. Even if the Storm are too strong I don't think the Knights have many points in them and this game will be all about defense.
GL

Play #2
Broncos vs Dragons UNDER 36.5 1x 1.90
It's raining in Brisbane at the moment and I jumped on this asap. Even if the rain stops a wet ground could slow things down a little.
Whilst it's not the major reason I'm playing this it could be a factor. Both these teams will look to grind away a win tonight and the Dragons defense should slow the game down considerably. AVG pts scored are low for these two teams and I don't see the Dragons running away with too much tonight
GL

Play #3
Broncos vs Dragons +4 1x 1.95
I think the 'home crowd' has been factored into this game a little too much. This will be a tight game and while the Broncos on paper look impressive they've gotten out of jail way too many times. It's only a matter of time before the Broncos get shut out of games for good and I'm tipping a Dragons win or VERY CLOSE call tonight. Brett Morris at fullback for the Dragons has been very impressive and is a game breaker. Broncos lack in attack with Yow Yee & Parker missing and aren't all they seem at the moment. +4 is just too good of a number to pass over and I'm locking this in for 1x. GL

rohan22no · 03-30-12, 03:11 AM

I'm following all your o/u tips Thatguy, so good luck

hawley · 03-30-12, 03:13 AM

Like all 3 plays.

GL tonight

dRavidC · 03-30-12, 07:03 AM

very unlucky on all 3 plays. every footy side tonight decided to ditch their defence and all go all out on attack. and st george almost staged one of the greatest comebacks ever.

That Guy · 03-30-12, 08:00 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-20 +1 units

Round 5 0-3

Brutal beats tonight with 2 breakout games and uncharacteristic defensive efforts from the Dragons & Knights. Unbelievable games to watch and also have a play on. The books well & truly won the night apart from the squares who took the favourites for a low ML.
Roll on tomorrow and leaving behind the a first night on bad beats... GL

That Guy · 03-30-12, 08:25 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-20 +1 units

Round 5 0-3

Play #4
Titans vs Bulldogs -5.5 3x 1.95
Great value play that I'm jumping on in case the line starts moving. Bulldogs looked horrible last week and lacked any discipline or sting in attack. Des Hasler is a great motivator and two bad beats in a row are hard to come by under his watch - past stats showing a trend of convincing wins following large losses. The Dogs will be out to prove a point this week and the Titans financial drama must be affecting the players.
Titan's left side is extremely vulnerable, especial with Scott Prince and Matt White out of action. Pritchard, Morris and Goodwin should have a field day and pile on the points for the dogs on that side. It's highly unlikely they will be as flat as they were last week and they should dispose of the Titans easily. I see this as a good value play - the Dogs being undervalued because of last week's performance (they would be -8 or more if they had won last week) and the Titans being overvalued because of their relatively close losses & round 1 grand final. The dogs should be ready to fire after the 'loss they had to have' last week.
I'm locking this in for 3x nice and early.
GL

kingsr · 03-30-12, 10:55 PM

Just got news Prince is playing.

benrama · 03-31-12, 12:19 AM

Bulldogs had their "NQ moment" last weekend, shocking completion rate, too many errors and missed tackles. Des will have them fired up for today's game.

I don't think it matters if Prince is playing, he's totally over-rated and has a shocking kicking game. I almost like Bulldogs more with him in the side particularly if not 100%.

Swizly · 03-31-12, 12:23 AM

Don't know much about NRL , I've just had a feeling all week that the sharks win today. Anyone got thoughts about the match?

benrama · 03-31-12, 12:30 AM

I like the Sharkies too, with Gibbs back Gallen goes back to lock. Panthers two wins were against Eels and Roosters, who are two of the worst teams in the comp - to be fair they should have beaten the Bulldogs too, but that was due to getting a lot of the possession.

Panthers play well at home and Sharks are often woeful away, so that's the main concern I'd have.

Also have a strong lean to the under.

kingsr · 03-31-12, 12:34 AM

Benrama agree doesn't matter prince in or not but was just letting thatguy know cos his play analysis mentioned prince not playing.

Bulldogs play tomorrow, not today.

I'm on sharks +2.5 panthers are a fraud.

angelo63 · 03-31-12, 12:37 AM

I have locked in Sharks as thee Lock of the year so far in the NRL, on exposed form the Sharks are a top 8 side, whilst the Panthers will be looking forward to playing the Roosters and Eels again. The Gold Coast game is very dicy, Beau Champion will have to be exactly what his name suggests if the Titans are to win, The game is too hard to pick as the Dogs form last week was pretty awful. Good luck tonight.

That Guy · 03-31-12, 12:55 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-20 +1 units

Round 5 0-3

Play #5
Panthers vs Sharks ML 1x 2.15
Panthers were made to look like superstars against the Eels last week but the reality is.. it was the Eels. The squares have piled the money onto the Panthers after last weeks win but I'm not sure why. The Sharks will be focused and tough upfront to beat and you can forget about any home ground advantage for Penrith - they've lost all their at home games so far this year. The Sharks have had a seven day rest and should be much stronger up front. Rabbitohs piled on the points and demolished the Panthers forward pack, while it might not be a white wash it should be a solid win for the Sharks. Modeling predicts a Panthers win by 2, but stats are not taking into account the walk up win against the Eels and 7 day rest for the Sharks.
I'm playing this 1x GL

Play #6
Panthers vs Sharks UNDER 40.5 1x 1.90
Both these teams have been hitting the unders fairly consistently and even if the Sharks happen to get up tonight I don't expect it to be a thrashing. They've won no games by a margin more than 6 points and I don't see that eventuating tonight. Models have the total score tonight at 36-38points. If you take out the Panthers thumping of the Eels the total for this game drops to 32 points, which is a play for me. GL

That Guy · 03-31-12, 01:21 AM

Added:

Play #7
Eels vs Sea Eagles OVER 40.5
Based on models this game falls just short of the 40points at 37pts. But with added Hayne tonight there should be a few more points in this game. Even if it turns into a flogging we should get enough value from the Eels to push it over the line. Hayne needs to perform tonight and get thru the full 80mins for the Eels to have any chance. They will be desperate to get a win and should perform better than last week. Manly have plenty of points in them yet the Eels average only 9 points per game. I'm expecting them to exceed that tonight and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. GL

Play #8
Roosters vs Warriors UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Roosters copped a belting last week and I expect their defense to improve this week against a Warriors side that is carrying a few injuries. Both sides have low points per game averages and if they hold their own this game should go way under. With injury concerns the Warriors will lose some bite in attack and my model is predicting a score line of around 22-10 with a win to the Warriors. A buffer of 8 points is good enough for a lock so I'm rolling 1x
GL

kingsr · 03-31-12, 02:49 AM

Sharks took a sedative at half time.

Swizly · 03-31-12, 03:14 AM

Thanks guys. Got a bit lucky but I'll take it

hawley · 03-31-12, 03:15 AM

Shark and under

angelo63 · 03-31-12, 03:20 AM

Sharks were always the solid play, getting 2.25 was a huge bonus, they played like expected during the first half and luckily they have some class to drag them out of losing situations. Carney will be 5/8 for NSW that is pretty much done and dusted now. Panthers are a weak side who are annoying to watch, now onto a good team to watch and that is the Warriors , who if they are switched on will feast on the hapless Chooks. Good Luck again for game 2 tonight.

kingsr · 03-31-12, 03:22 AM

Robson is a joke in the 7 for sharks...carney was fantastic!

angelo63 · 03-31-12, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Robson is a joke in the 7 for sharks...carney was fantastic!

Robson made some bad plays with the pill on 5th tackle, I think if DeGois was on the ball would have gone to Carney on the left instead fo Robson on the right, main thing is they won.

Crowing Capers · 03-31-12, 10:23 AM

Fricken great night That Guy.... Much appreciated. Killed the mongrel bookies today with the help of my crows.

That Guy · 03-31-12, 10:32 AM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 26-20 +4.95 units

Round 5 4-3
Dogs were barking tonight with wins to Roosters and Eels. Still managed a 4-0 run for Saturday's plays and cashed close to 4 units.
Continuing Sunday with some solid plays and confident the dogs stop barking on the Gold Coast with a Bulldogs win. Still rolling with the Dogs even if Scott Prince plays - he's not a game breaker from mine and shouldn't affect this play. Line has dropped to Dogs -4 on some books which makes this play even more attractive.

Sunday plays:

Play #4
Titans vs Bulldogs -4 3x 1.95
Great value play that I'm jumping on in case the line starts moving. Bulldogs looked horrible last week and lacked any discipline or sting in attack. Des Hasler is a great motivator and two bad beats in a row are hard to come by under his watch - past stats showing a trend of convincing wins following large losses. The Dogs will be out to prove a point this week and the Titans financial drama must be affecting the players.
Titan's left side is extremely vulnerable, especial with Scott Prince and Matt White out of action. Pritchard, Morris and Goodwin should have a field day and pile on the points for the dogs on that side. It's highly unlikely they will be as flat as they were last week and they should dispose of the Titans easily. I see this as a good value play - the Dogs being undervalued because of last week's performance (they would be -8 or more if they had won last week) and the Titans being overvalued because of their relatively close losses & round 1 grand final. The dogs should be ready to fire after the 'loss they had to have' last week.
I'm locking this in for 3x nice and early

ADDED:

Play #9
Tigers vs Rabbitohs UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
Both teams have stressed defense as being the component they worked on most at training this week. The Rabbitohs will come out firing after a horrible beat last week against the Broncos, similarly the Tigers will be keen to make amends for the thumping they got last week. I think we see a tight game with lower scores from both teams - my model has this game at 40pts so it might be a close one. The totals last year when both teams were much more potent in attack was 40.5 and the unders cashed. These teams should be playing a little more conservatively given the easy points they gave away last week. In metres gained, penalties, hit ups and several more stats these teams are almost identical.. they both play a similar game and player on player the match ups are fairly even, so I don't see one team having a massive advantage.
Given the model total of 40 and the importance of this game for both sides (slower play) I'm locking in 1x on the UNDER.
GL

Domestic · 03-31-12, 08:53 PM

I also like the Tigers/Rabbitohs under. Got 44.5 @ Pinnacle. Sure, tigers can score a lot of points in a hurry but I'm hopeful of some 10-15 minute dry scoring spells, enough for the under to hit.

Domestic · 04-01-12, 12:50 AM

Under looking very good.

MrXYZ · 04-01-12, 02:24 AM

Nice work, congrats on another sweep!

dRavidC · 04-01-12, 06:05 AM

too easy well done!

can't believe tigers lost that though.

benrama · 04-01-12, 06:40 AM

Great calls mate, I hopped on board with the Souths/Tigers under - never in doubt.

maroona · 04-01-12, 07:37 AM

Good job man, you really know your NRL, thanks for posting the plays

That Guy · 04-01-12, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

Under looking very good.

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Nice work, congrats on another sweep!

Originally posted by dRavidC

too easy well done!

can't believe tigers lost that though.

Originally posted by benrama

Great calls mate, I hopped on board with the Souths/Tigers under - never in doubt.

Originally posted by maroona

Good job man, you really know your NRL, thanks for posting the plays

cheers guys.. great to nail a few more plays.

That Guy · 04-01-12, 08:48 AM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 28-20 +8.75 units

Round 5 6-3
Snagged the big unit play today and the Rabbitohs UNDER was always solid. One more game to round out the season and if my book is confident enough to post the total the day before, then I'm confident to play it.

Play #10
Raiders vs Cowboys OVER 42.5 1x 1.95
There are a lot of players missing or in doubt for this clash which favours the over heavily - statistically players missing generally means more points leaked. Shillington, Papalii, Tilse are in doubt and Matt Scott has been ruled out. Look for the Cowboys to throw it around more after they were heavily criticised last week for lack of involvement against the Sharks. Matt Bowen and Ash Graham will look to lay on the points with pace and the Raiders should follow. Both teams defense has been full of holes and I don't expect that to fixed overnight. Expect this game to be played on attack where the Raiders and Cowboys both prefer it.
The past three games between this sides has produced totals of well over 40 points (last year in Canberra it was 64 points). I'm playing this for 1x and expecting a similar total with a game not unlike last weeks Raiders / Tigers matchup.
GL

Crowing Capers · 04-01-12, 09:45 AM

Nice work again TG. Let's finish off with the overs next up. Appreciate your work man

That Guy · 04-01-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by Crowing Capers

Nice work again TG. Let's finish off with the overs next up. Appreciate your work man

Cheers mate..

Good luck. We need a classic high scoring effort from both sides tonight

That Guy · 04-02-12, 05:48 AM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 28-21 +7.75 units

Wrapping up the round with a Monday night loss but well & truly in front for the weekend. Pity the Raiders didn't show up and played possibly their worst game all season. If they had of kept up pace with the Cowboys it would have gone over easily.
Roll on with another week's worth of plays on Thursday. GL