Afl 2012

**Coopertrooper** · 04-27-12, 10:28 PM

I'm trying to stay away from those 2 games, except some of the exotic markets, but certainy GC look like they'll cop a belting. GL!

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by johno35

Good luck today Brett, I think there are some good opportunities today, my best bet is Lions/Cats over 168.5

Tailing this, looks the goods. Will make it best bet for today.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-27-12, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by johno35

Good luck today Brett, I think there are some good opportunities today, my best bet is Lions/Cats over 168.5

I like it, seems too good though. What's the catch? Maybe the weather?

**kingsr** · 04-27-12, 10:48 PM

Which book is offering totals for few game this early?

**kingsr** · 04-27-12, 10:49 PM

Rain in Brisbane...that's why total is low.

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 10:55 PM

haven't come out at aussie books yet and i think they will bring it out a bit higher, will wait and see, rain may make me avoid.

**johno35** · 04-27-12, 11:24 PM

Its only light rain in Brisbane, if it was belting down I would avoid.

Anyone watching the GWS game? GWS going great, keeping the Dogs goaless in first quarter. Also why does Mark Ricciuto sound like his balls haven't dropped? His sounds like a 13 year old, haha

**nocode1** · 04-28-12, 01:00 AM

Jack Ziebell 26 disposals or more @1.90 I'm hitting this for 1 unit

**Coopertrooper** · 04-28-12, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by nocode1

Jack Ziebell 26 disposals or more @1.90 I'm hitting this for 1 unit

I went down a slightly different path, took him for the most disposals in the group @4.5, had 0.5 a unit. Go Jack!

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 02:41 AM

158.5 for the bris/gee game!!! 18mm of rain in brisbane so far....i still think it can over???

**Coopertrooper** · 04-28-12, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by Coopertrooper

I went down a slightly different path, took him for the most disposals in the group @4.5, had 0.5 a unit. Go Jack!

Jack the hack... 4 touches nearing 1/2 time

**thecattery12** · 04-28-12, 02:52 AM

North Melbourne are real bad

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 02:54 AM

Yeah, how can you easily beat geelong then struggle against an ablett less gold coast? its a strange year so far!

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 04:51 AM

FAAARK didn't realise it would be that soaked at the gabba!!!!

**Coopertrooper** · 04-28-12, 05:00 AM

had a last minute bet on saints/melb under 170.5. GL.

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 05:05 AM

Might restrict myself to playing totals at etihad only, totally delusional only going through weatherzone app, was hovering under 40% rain during match time for the brisbane game, look at it the ball can barely bounce haha

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 05:06 AM

The way its going though tom hawkings might get me over the line

**brettels** · 04-28-12, 08:36 AM

Crows/Hawks @2.05

**johno35** · 04-28-12, 06:02 PM

Spewing last night, had the total for the cats game and had saints -39.5, weather totally screwed me! Should have waited till the last second with both games.

Really like the eagles today -19.5, what does everyone else think?

**Libert1ne** · 04-28-12, 07:10 PM

Quick question for you gents here,

I have a couple plays which involve Hawks and westcoast

Hawks/Carlton Parlay: 2.5 units to win 3.93 units
Westcoast/Carlton Parlay: 2.5 units to win 3.97 units
Hawks/Westcoast parlay: 5 units to win 4.54 units
Hawks/Westcoast/Geelong Parlay: 5 units to win 7.382

I'm thinking about letting these bets ride because I'm pretty confident in both the Hawks and Westcoast, but do you guys think it'd be wise to hedge? What about hedging with Sydney +19.5 @ 1.98?

**Libert1ne** · 04-28-12, 07:11 PM

If I let them ride then the only profitable outcome is both hawkers and eagles coming through.

**MatI** · 04-28-12, 08:22 PM

If they are ML wins, just let it ride

**Libert1ne** · 04-28-12, 08:42 PM

Yeah they're ML

**Lookingtostart** · 04-30-12, 11:43 PM

Round 6

....

**Lookingtostart** · 05-01-12, 12:11 AM

These were my predictions before looking at the lines. They are square, but I've got to do this more often and keep a record. Some are close:

wb vs pies -32
essendon vs lions -+26
cats vs melbourne -+68
GC vs freemantle -+40
saints vs hawks -+28
swans vs crows -+15
blues GWS -+82
port vs tiges -+3
eagles vs roos -+16

**MatI** · 05-01-12, 01:01 AM

Thanks for posting up those lines.

To add to that, the only line that has moved from when they were released on Monday is Hawks have come in a point from -26.5 to -25.5.

**kingsr** · 05-01-12, 04:06 AM

Pretty sure melb demons line moved from 65.5 to 60.5. They have some key player inclusions this week.

**brettels** · 05-01-12, 05:19 AM

Can Richmond be trusted?

**MatI** · 05-01-12, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Pretty sure melb demons line moved from 65.5 to 60.5. They have some key player inclusions this week.

I took a screenshot of all the odds on centrebet on Monday afternoon, around 4pm. But I didn't check before then. Must have been a really early move. They did look pretty good last weekend.

**Coopertrooper** · 05-01-12, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Can Richmond be trusted?

I think I'll steer clear of your game. Have been burnt a couple of times by the tigers, and port won't just roll over after losing the showdown, and also having a home game is in their favour. Too hard for me to judge that one.

I also can't see many standout games at this point, might wait and see a few points totals, otherwise might just tail and try and keep this week quiet.

**brettels** · 05-01-12, 09:31 PM

Have any of you guys or girls placed any bets with bookmaker.com.au ?? They are very new I just would like to know how some experiences with them have been.

**johno35** · 05-01-12, 11:17 PM

Hey guys one game that I like is Sydney -25.5, look at Adelaide wins/losses, they have only beaten ordinary teams. Also they have only covered the spread 1 time this year and that was round 1 against GC. How can it only be 25.5 points when Sydney are undefeated and beat the premiership favs last week away by 37 points! The only reason I think is because Sydney have not beaten Adelaide at the SCG since 2004, regardless of that fact Sydney will smash this overated Adelaide team. I am I alone in saying this?

**brettels** · 05-02-12, 01:59 AM

Where would you have set the line if you were the bookie johno?

**johno35** · 05-02-12, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Where would you have set the line if you were the bookie johno?

I would set it at about 35-40

**brettels** · 05-02-12, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by johno35

I would set it at about 35-40

Then play the swans line with confidence. Truth is no one really knows. I'll post my leans for every match on thursday, I'm good for a fade this year.