AFL opening spreads

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 10:29 PM

They kept up with Geelong and brown was goalless before he broke his face again

**Gee** · 07-22-11, 10:41 PM

Yeah, I have Bulldogs +11.5 for 2.5x. Cinci rained on my parade earlier. Its been a good morning overall though.

I think the line is about right in the North game, so I'm not going to touch it...

**WillC** · 07-22-11, 10:42 PM

Brown hasn't been himself since his R1 injury so it isn't a huge blow.

Line is inflated by 20 points due to the Brown injury and the Lions poor record in Melbourne .. 40pt head start is a gift imo

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 10:42 PM

They still had structure and a target to kick to, without that we were were beaten by the Suns, even with him we struggled to beat Port. Last week was more to do with Geelong probably not going into the game 100% focused after a long road trip and rollercoasters. That was an anomaly, not proof Brisbane can be competitive. They nearly got blown out by over 40 in the 4th Q

Best of luck but I think North win this by around 10 goals easily, Brisbane will struggle to put up more than 8-10 goals. North to cover and under for me.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 10:47 PM

good points, good luck to you aswell.

played the over on sydney game before finding out its raining with storms and so on. oh well. heres hoping

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 10:53 PM

turn on the tv and its nice and sunny in sydney. weatherzone is becoming unreliable

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 10:59 PM

http://www.bom.gov.au/ use that for weather

**donkson** · 07-22-11, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by WillC

Brown hasn't been himself since his R1 injury so it isn't a huge blow.

He's only played 8 full games and kicked 19 goals in them.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 11:10 PM

The biggest blow for Brisbane missing Brown aside the structure is the psychological lift from the confidence and onfield guts he inspires, especially in a younger side. I don't think Brisbane are going to completely lie down and give up but rest of the season morale is going to be low I would imagine.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by Alt75

http://www.bom.gov.au/ use that for weather

i know bom but i use weatherzone iphone app.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 11:34 PM

Ah you're on a mobile device.

Brisbane not looking too bad.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 11:47 PM

i told you im a sharp lol we'll see its only 1st quater, i could get everything wrong today. both games QT lines i got wrong. not a good start.

**benrama** · 07-23-11, 01:34 AM

The Swans should be ahead by 50 here, they are massively outplaying the bulldogs but not converting. A friend of mine who's a Collingwood tragic reckons that GC might be a good bet today as Collingwood are resting a lot of players, so I'll be playing that small.

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 01:57 AM

got the overs in both games

brisbane faded away, north 1-39

i did say the 40+ was better option but i went for the value and faith in brisbane.

barry hall most goals nice collect

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 02:00 AM

well done again mate, what were the odds on Hall for most goals?

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 02:03 AM

3.50 with sportsbet

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by benrama

The Swans should be ahead by 50 here, they are massively outplaying the bulldogs but not converting. A friend of mine who's a Collingwood tragic reckons that GC might be a good bet today as Collingwood are resting a lot of players, so I'll be playing that small.

He's not a very good friend if he convinced you to back GC. The changes are fair and balanced with the ins. still collingwood by lots and lots!

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 02:28 AM

lol brettels... plus he can't be a real Collingwood tragic giving GC a chance SU. Jolly is the only notable change, Wood can cover him in the ruck and they have Goldsack in also who will probably handle the ruck in the backline. Most Collingwood fans already have em down for this year and next years Grand Final, dropping this game would be inconceivable in their minds. Just about every Collingwood supporter would have mortgaged the house and put all their life savings on Collingwood ML.

I think under 40-50 points is as close to a shock upset as it gets. Collingwood to cover fairly easily, margin of 120-150 is what I predict.

**TwoWays** · 07-23-11, 02:30 AM

Not so fast, Alt75. I haven't put my Suns jinx on this game yet.

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by Alt75

lol brettels... plus he can't be a real Collingwood tragic giving GC a chance SU. Jolly is the only notable change, Wood can cover him in the ruck and they have Goldsack in also who will probably handle the ruck in the backline. Most Collingwood fans already have em down for this year and next years Grand Final, dropping this game would be inconceivable in their minds. Just about every Collingwood supporter would have mortgaged the house and put all their life savings on Collingwood ML.

I think under 40-50 points is as close to a shock upset as it gets. Collingwood to cover fairly easily, margin of 120-150 is what I predict.

You got it wrong ALT, collingwood supporters don't have houses to mortgage. Instead they haven't gone to the bottle'o and put their whole doll payment on the 1.01 ML. haha

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 02:59 AM

back onto tonights games!

carlton & essendon
carlton 1-39
over 188.5
carlton QT line -4.5
andrew walker most goals

GC & Collingwood
over 196.5
andrew krakour most goals
QT line collingwood -18.5

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 03:22 AM

Sure anything can happen. Pies covering isn't exactly a lock, I think SU is as close to one as you'll ever get. Ablett jr is probably the only Suns player who could get a game at Collingwood.

bet365 won't accept Collingwood v Suns spread and total as a double. The slip allows it as usual but when submit it, it says they are related

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 03:25 AM

I don't use bet365! Can't help u there but I don't know of any bookie that would allow that

**diop** · 07-23-11, 03:31 AM

collingwood have only travelled interstate once this year to sydney with there 6 point win.

gold coast may feel more lazy than usual after there win against richmond, could be a letdown spot for them even though every week is one lol. i really wanna take pies first qrt/half but scared too. couple of bad misses for pies and lucky goals for GC can kill that easily.

r pies more disciplined on the road? find out tonight

**Gee** · 07-23-11, 03:54 AM

80 point spread and over are correlated. No play.

Cold as ice over here. for what its worth, I played 3x on over and 1x on 1q quarter line for pies.

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by brettels

I don't use bet365! Can't help u there but I don't know of any bookie that would allow that

None other do for AFL/NRL that I know of normally it allows ML/spread and total combo's with most sports that aren't live in play. With props or of it's deemed as correlated it will disable the multi field. This allows but gives an error when submitting the bet, it's just this game I guess they have decided if Collingwood cover the total is 100% going over. Fair enough I guess.

Oh well it let me combo Essendon +16.5/over 187.5 & over 194.5 for Pies v Suns.

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 04:08 AM

sportsbet have one match multi's through the week but havn't really looked into them they might have what you want, also TAB victoria or nsw might do it, victoria would be the one.

**Gee** · 07-23-11, 04:11 AM

Couldnt get a 1Q line. damn.

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 04:14 AM

I'm on sportsbet, never noticed their one match multi's. Sportingbet do line and total doubles for NRL only, odds are often best at bet365 for the combos though.

As Gee said the extremely large spread and over are correlated. I guess anything over 10 goals and the over won't be allowed.

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 04:26 AM

collingwood step up FFS

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 04:43 AM

Thank you collingwood

**benrama** · 07-23-11, 04:46 AM

Haha, yes I should have been clearer, my "tragic" friend was only giving GC a chance to beat the handicap not to actually win. Though it is funny with how dominant the Pies are that he can always think of a way the Pies might lose. You should check out the Bigfooty forums as well, it's always got supporters predicting potentially dire scenarios - bloody pessimists those Pies supporters.

Looks like the Pies will smash the Suns in any case, just have to hope they ease up and give the +77.5 a chance.

**Gee** · 07-23-11, 04:50 AM

Shitty I didnt get on the 1Q.

Do I count it to my record or not? I was going to ask this if i won or lost. I'm thinking not, because I didn't win money. But I'm also thinking count it, because it was my pick...?

Over is looking good at least.

Going to be on the Wallabies -9 tonight for 1.5x.

**brettels** · 07-23-11, 04:53 AM

Lol if you are talking about a spread sheet no but credit to you for picking it

**Alt75** · 07-23-11, 05:10 AM

I don't see what harm adding it to spreadsheet does, he picked it, it's not incorrectly padding his stats or balance.

Didn't think the 1Q was gonna pay off.

I was just reading through the bet365 fine print on the rollover as I was wondering why my bonus amount was lower than what it should be, it turns out Baseball ML's don't count for rollover. Bastards.