Hels' NRL Thread -- Let's Drive this Shit!!

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by hels

I might have to start tailing your 1-12 and 13+ plays kingfish as I know good value can be found with them. What are you guys thinking about the GC/Canberra game?? I haven't made any plays on it yet.

Like the over 42.5
-8.5 is a big start to cover, I'm not sure whether the Titans can do it.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 04:29 AM

Almost tempted to put $15 on the Knights as they're ML is at 13.0 right now.... I know that hedging is not profitable in the long run but with how Manly's 2nd halfs have been..............

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by hels

Almost tempted to put $15 on the Knights as they're ML is at 13.0 right now.... I know that hedging is not profitable in the long run but with how Manly's 2nd halfs have been..............

SURELY lightining doesn't strike THRICE.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 04:32 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

Like the over 42.5
-8.5 is a big start to cover, I'm not sure whether the Titans can do it.

I would be on the Over as well but Pinnacle doesn't have OUs and nobody has layed it on Betfair. I could just go to the local TAB but hopefully it'll be up on Betfair sooner than later.

8.5 does seem like too much and that's why I'm thinking the public majority will be on the Raiders. If the line at TAB doesn't move by tipoff I'm going to make a good size play on Titans-6.5 (tribet)

edit: of course Raiders+10.5 just went to 1.8 so Titans-10.5 at 2.00. I don't like that one bit.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 04:40 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

SURELY lightining doesn't strike THRICE.

IF it were it wouldn't be NICE

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 04:43 AM

Early Manly try, they should be home now.

**TwoWays** · 03-27-10, 04:55 AM

Really thinking about taking Raiders with the points.

**sportscash** · 03-27-10, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by hels

I would be on the Over as well but Pinnacle doesn't have OUs and nobody has layed it on Betfair. I could just go to the local TAB but hopefully it'll be up on Betfair sooner than later.

8.5 does seem like too much and that's why I'm thinking the public majority will be on the Raiders. If the line at TAB doesn't move by tipoff I'm going to make a good size play on Titans-6.5 (tribet)

edit: of course Raiders+10.5 just went to 1.8 so Titans-10.5 at 2.00. I don't like that one bit.

It has me a bit worried also.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 05:11 AM

Originally posted by TwoWays

Really thinking about taking Raiders with the points.

I wouldn't blame you one bit for making this play. You have to have confidence with the Raiders Defence and whether or not they're still going to be feeling the effects from the Monday nighter.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 05:29 AM

TAB line just fell once again Raiders@1.75 GC@2.05 I'm not a fan of those line drops at all.

I'm just going to make a small play Titans 1-12 $40 to win $122
The O38.5 is available but only at 1.42 atm so no value at all playing that.
It's been a great day with both NRL and AFL so far so I'm more than happy just sitting back and enjoying the late game

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by hels

TAB line just fell once again Raiders@1.75 GC@2.05 I'm not a fan of those line drops at all. I'm just going to make a small play Titans 1-12 $40 to win $122 The O38.5 is available but only at 1.42 atm so no value at all playing that. It's been a great day with both NRL and AFL so far so I'm more than happy just sitting back and enjoying the late game

Good choice, hopefully it is a good game.

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by kingfish28

I agree about the titans but raiders having 5 day turnaround worries me. titans over 6.5

is what I'll be on fellas. Small play storm 1-12

and either team under 6.5.

BOL all

3 bets 3 cashes great night plus the over in the afl syd boys, let's keep this shit up

**TwoWays** · 03-27-10, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by hels

I wouldn't blame you one bit for making this play. You have to have confidence with the Raiders Defence and whether or not they're still going to be feeling the effects from the Monday nighter.

Now I'm thinking why didn't I just go to bed

**hels** · 03-27-10, 03:33 PM

ML: 4-5 -$244
PS: 5-4 +123
OU: 10-2 +$787 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date +666

I love to see the success kingfish!!! It's nice to have days like that when everything is hitting no matter how you play it

Let's do it all over again today

I haven't looked at any of the games yet as I'm more excited for the UFC where Georges St. Pierre is defending his belt. Of course he's my fav mma fighter being Canadian and all. Of course there's no value in his odds but UFC is a sport that I actually prefer not to bet on and just watch for the pure entertainment value.

Originally posted by TwoWays

Now I'm thinking why didn't I just go to bed

We all know this feeling and there's nothing I can say to change it. I made the wrong play on the game as well

even though if you read pretty much everything I had written about it beforehand my logic and thinking had everything to do with making the correct play (Titans-10.5). I got timid after seeing the TAB line movement as usually it's a dead giveaway when their lines move. I was thinking before the game, "Canberra plus the points is the square play, Titans minus the points is the sharp play." I played it square and the books are doing this to me right now

I hope you stick around and we'll get them back today!!!

**hels** · 03-27-10, 04:07 PM

Today's matchups are somewhat interesting and I think there might be some good value.

Broncos/Warriors should be a fast paced, action packed game that will definitely have the sell-out crowd at Suncorp on their feet. Corey Parker is out which is a huge blow for Brisbane. Somehow they're still favoured and -5.5 or -6.5 depending where you look. The Warriors want to show that they've improved from past seasons and are a contending force but are they really? Beating Cronulla at home isn't anything to be overly joyous about as 12 other teams will be experiencing the same feeling this year. Brisbane looks like it'll be solid at home and sub-par on the road this season. I think the Bronos will win but by how much is up in the air. I think the best value will be in the Brisbane ML as neither team has shown their true colours yet this season.

Roosters/Bulldogs make no sense being even money either way. The square play is Roosters, sharp play is Bullies. Bullies it will be.

**alias69** · 03-27-10, 07:00 PM

I agree hels, if dogs can't win today. They don't deserve to be in the finals. I think they win easy, just like manly last nite.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 09:47 PM

Brisbane-5.5 $214 to win $414

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 10:06 PM

Ended up paying some juice and taking Brisbane -3.5.

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by hels

Brisbane-5.5 $214 to win $414

G'day hels good luck mate. Just got on here now had a big nite. Took a small play with either team under 6.5. I think warriors mite trouble bris but not confident. BOL all

**kingsr** · 03-27-10, 10:17 PM

Bris will not make top 8 this year! I took them in a multi, lets hope they win! They look terrible atm.

Bulldogs will win today

**kingsr** · 03-27-10, 10:30 PM

We are in trouble, Kemp injured, Folau injured!

**kingsr** · 03-27-10, 10:33 PM

Our only hope is that the warriors are full of mistakes.

**kingsr** · 03-27-10, 10:43 PM

WOW they droppin like flies in Brisbane! Manu Vatuvei is injured too!!! Good for Bris backers

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 10:45 PM

We needed that Broncos try bad, phew.

**kingsr** · 03-27-10, 10:45 PM

Heremiah injured! My god is there gonna be any players left? Mikkinonon Injured too wtf????

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 11:23 PM

Stick a fork in the Broncos they are done.

**alias69** · 03-28-10, 12:05 AM

Go doggies

**hels** · 03-28-10, 12:06 AM

oh man this isn't going well for me today... we all get kicked in the as by brisbane's garbage effort and I thought the Bulldogs game started at 3

And of course the Bullies are trouncing the Roosters as we all figured they would.....

does anyone have a site that has the NRL schedule for starting times for Brisbane residents???? I swear, every site has a different time listing for every game and I'm always struggling to figure out the real kickoff time.

**MrStiffy** · 03-28-10, 12:11 AM

Never again will i back broncos this year, I'll only bet against them. I thought parra's effort was bad on friday night, but that just takes the cake. Didn't expect them to give up so easily playing at home.

Worst part is I had them as a last leg in a $300 12 leg multi paying out over a grand, and I thought i was safe having them +12.5 in it

Well done to those who picked warriors

**hels** · 03-28-10, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by MrStiffy

Never again will i back broncos this year, I'll only bet against them. I thought parra's effort was bad on friday night, but that just takes the cake. Didn't expect them to give up so easily playing at home.

Worst part is I had them as a last leg in a $300 12 leg multi paying out over a grand, and I thought i was safe having them +12.5 in it

Well done to those who picked warriors

+12.5 shoudl have been as close to a lock as you could imagine too... their performance was ludicrous. They completely sucked and are pathetic.

**MrStiffy** · 03-28-10, 12:36 AM

Thats unfortunate you couldn't get your dogs bet in on time. Would be a good thing if the dogs lose though, but unlikely

I suppose its just a matter of figuring out the reliable teams this year that can be relied upon to not give up late in the game, and pick matches where a blowout is extremely unlikely to give the +PYOL start to. Better luck next week I guess.

What are your thoughts for the Monday night game?

**hels** · 03-28-10, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by MrStiffy

Thats unfortunate you couldn't get your dogs bet in on time. Would be a good thing if the dogs lose though, but unlikely

I suppose its just a matter of figuring out the reliable teams this year that can be relied upon to not give up late in the game, and pick matches where a blowout is extremely unlikely to give the +PYOL start to. Better luck next week I guess.

What are your thoughts for the Monday night game?

Haven't looked that hard at tomorrow's game but being the bottom dwellers there's probably greatest value in the home side (Cronulla) but being Cronulla there's no value at all with them. The Souths played alright against GC last week but that was at home. If anything I think the greatest play will be the Under. Two crap teams playing each other tend to focus on defense first and generally one team won't be able to score.

**alias69** · 03-28-10, 01:18 AM

Broke even for the day. Broncos loss dogs win.

**sportscash** · 03-28-10, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by alias69

Broke even for the day. Broncos loss dogs win.

I did the same

**kingfish28** · 03-28-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by MrStiffy

Thats unfortunate you couldn't get your dogs bet in on time. Would be a good thing if the dogs lose though, but unlikely

I suppose its just a matter of figuring out the reliable teams this year that can be relied upon to not give up late in the game, and pick matches where a
blowout is extremely unlikely to give the +PYOL start to. Better luck next week I guess.

What are your thoughts for the Monday night game?

Yeah exactly hels, next few weeks will show who we can trust. Hard tomorrow night but sharks don't score overly hard so the under seems the play although I haven't yet checked what's on offer. If it's around 38-40 I'll take the under.