Hels' NRL Thread -- Let's Drive this Shit!!

**hels** · 03-26-10, 01:41 AM

I can't believe this, I just got home grabbed a beer and checked out the lines for tonight. At betfair the dragons/cowboys U38.5 at 2.06 and O38.5 at 1.75 ????????

I was expecting it to be the other way. I know I had mentioned the Over is a possibility but I didn't think the Over was going to be favoured on any site. TAB is 38.5 and 1.90 each way....

I was thinking about taking Dragons 1-12 tonight but after seeing this OU line I'm trying to figure out what it means. I seriously think this game will be going Over tonight (this is only due to the line being 37.5, the Over being favoured at betfair and standing still at TAB)

edit: just checked out centrebets OU -- at 40 1.90 either way ?????? Am I missing something?

**MrStiffy** · 03-26-10, 02:07 AM

Cowboys defence can be atrocious at times, especially away from home. Can see dragons putting on a lot of points. If cowboys get their tails up again, I can see this going over easily.

I think it all depends on how well dragons shut down the cowboys attack.

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 02:30 AM

I can't see cowboys scoring very much tonight hels, lucky if they score over 12-14 tonight

**hels** · 03-26-10, 03:11 AM

I'm thinking Under as well since the Cowboys really shouldn't be able to score often. TAB has a "cowboys curse" bet where they won't score any tries in the 1st half at 5.00. Since it's that high I think alot of people will be wasting alot of money on it since there isn't any wager you can play that they will score a try in the 1st half. I mean, why would TAB offer a play when you can't bet either way on it? Only allowing you one choice sums it up pretty good, it isn't going to happen.

I'm starting to lean towards Cowboys ML. Numbers aren't adding up for me right now and that's what I'm concerned over. 3.9 is nice and I'm thinking there could be value

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 04:00 AM

BOL, I ended up taking parra h2h into dragons -6.5

**hels** · 03-26-10, 04:29 AM

BOL kingfish

I haven't made any plays tonight as there is just too much going on at home this evening. I'm just going to sitback and try to enjoy the NQ game. I think there might be an upset but who knows. I just want everyone to beat the books, that's all I care about posting here

**hedgejob** · 03-26-10, 04:36 AM

Drags now -10 pre kickoff.

**hels** · 03-26-10, 04:45 AM

Originally posted by hedgejob

Drags now -10 pre kickoff.

I saw that late movement too.... did you make a play on the game earlier??

**hedgejob** · 03-26-10, 04:49 AM

Yeah on Drags -8.5

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by hels

BOL kingfish

I haven't made any plays tonight as there is just too much going on at home this evening. I'm just going to sitback and try to enjoy the NQ game. I think there might be an upset but who knows. I just want everyone to beat the books, that's all I care
about posting here

thanks mate

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 08:00 AM

Missed my dbl due to parra but dragons done the right thing by me, had them in an afl multi and gave my mate dragons -6.5 as a lock tonight which he cleaned up on

**sportscash** · 03-26-10, 07:53 PM

Good stuff dragons backers i stayed out of this match.

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by sportscash

Good stuff dragons backers i stayed out of this match.

sportscash

**kingfish28** · 03-26-10, 11:56 PM

Storm playing away for the 3rd week straight now does anyone here share my thoughts that they might b a risk tonight?

**MrStiffy** · 03-27-10, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by kingfish28

Storm playing away for the 3rd week straight now does anyone here share my thoughts that they might b a risk tonight?

Not sure what to make of this game, might just put a bet on for panthers first try, it pays out most weeks over the last few seasons, and payed out rounds 1 and 2.

What are peoples thoughts for the other two games tonight?

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by MrStiffy

Not sure what to make of this game, might just put a bet on for panthers first try, it pays out most weeks over the last few seasons, and payed out rounds 1 and 2.

What are peoples thoughts for the other two games tonight?

titans should be to strong for the raiders in this one, prince should be able to control the game and raiders aren't great at all away from home. Roosters look good at the moment so have to stick with them until they show a reason otherwise but tread carefully. Titans by around 10, roosters by around 12

**MrStiffy** · 03-27-10, 12:56 AM

titans just worry me with these large spreads, they have a habbit on winning by close margins. Maybe titans 1-12?

I'm with you with the roosters though

**alias69** · 03-27-10, 01:06 AM

I'm more incline to go with over 42 storm v panthers. Bol

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:14 AM

I think the Storm should be able to pull this one off. Penrith have lost the last 5 to the Storm and even though there are lots of players out on Melbourne Penrith has their fair share of injuries as well. Playing away from home the first 3 weeks is pretty tough, I definitely agree with you kingfish however, it's only a 90 minute flight from Melbourne and they've had a full week of rest. Winning their first 2 games on the road will only help build their confidence.

Manly/Newcastle is a very important match for both sides, especially Manly. They're pissed off and I highly doubt we'll see them have any major collapses again this year. I expect them to win in a blowout at home and show they aren't a team to be taken lightly. Newcastle won't know what's hit them.

Titans/Raiders line caught my eye. Gold Coast-9.5 is wayyyyyy to big for how they've won their first 2 games this season. They only beat the Souths by 1 last week and NZ by 6 the week before. Canberra won last week but some would say Brisbane lost the game as they definitely had dominance of possession. Canberra also played Monday night. They didn't suffer any injuries but 5 days is not much time to rest and prepare. With the line at 9.5, it points all over Gold Coast blowing the game wide open and score with ease. I also like the Over 42.5 in this match as I think the Titans will score at least 30

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:19 AM

Storm-2 $100 to win $192

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by MrStiffy

titans just worry me with these large spreads, they have a habbit on winning by close margins. Maybe titans 1-12?

I'm with you with the roosters though

I agree about the titans but raiders having 5 day turnaround worries me. titans over 6.5 is what I'll be on fellas. Small play storm 1-12 and either team under 6.5. BOL all

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:23 AM

Big money coming in late on the Storm

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by hels

Penrith-2 $100 to win $192

Thought u liked storm hels?

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by kingfish28

I agree about the titans but raiders having 5 day turnaround worries me. titans over 6.5 is what I'll be on fellas. Small play storm 1-12 and either team under 6.5. BOL all

are you playing the tribet for the titans? What line did you get it at?

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:29 AM

added another $100 to win $192 on Storm-2

so that's $200 to win $384 on this. BOL everyone

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by kingfish28

Thought u liked storm hels?

lol at me... complete typo and brainfukk on my part

. I think I'm still recovering from last night.... it was a rough one to say the least. My money IS on the Storm and thank god I didn't click the wrong thing at Pinnacle

**hels** · 03-27-10, 01:49 AM

In match play storm/panthers U38.5 $82 to win $107 ($82 was the highest amount possible to match)

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by hels

lol at me... complete typo and brainfukk on my part

. I think I'm still recovering from last night.... it was a rough one to say the least. My money IS on the Storm and thank god I didn't click the wrong thing at Pinnacle

**hels** · 03-27-10, 03:30 AM

Great result for everyone on the Storm

Sea Eagles-3.5 $100 to win $180

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 03:35 AM

Originally posted by hels

In match play storm/panthers U38.5 $82 to win $107 ($82 was the highest amount possible to match)

My under 44 cashed too, good stuff.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 03:38 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

My under 44 cashed too, good stuff.

Sweet as!!!! I think we're all starting off the evening nicely

Are you on the game right now??

**kingfish28** · 03-27-10, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by kingfish28

I agree about the titans but raiders having 5 day turnaround worries me. titans over 6.5 is what I'll be on fellas. Small play storm 1-12

and either team under 6.5.

BOL all

cashed in both great start to the night

**Domestic** · 03-27-10, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by hels

Sweet as!!!! I think we're all starting off the evening nicely

Are you on the game right now??

On Sydney Swans over, might make a play on the Raiders game later.

**hels** · 03-27-10, 03:50 AM

In play Manly ML $100 to win $190

**hels** · 03-27-10, 03:51 AM

I might have to start tailing your 1-12 and 13+ plays kingfish as I know good value can be found with them.

What are you guys thinking about the GC/Canberra game?? I haven't made any plays on it yet.