ElCapitan's 2010-2011 NHL Season

teecee · 10-21-10, 01:20 PM

thanks, elcapitan.

mitchp · 10-21-10, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Looking back on games, picking +PL's over 1.44 odds decimal, won 18 of 24, 75% SU no chasing.
ML on the same teams won 11 of 24, 46%, (odds in the 2.5 range) SU no chasing.

If you would do a 70-30% with your bet per game (70% +PL 30% ML)= pure money.

Todays games that fit the above are Anaheim, Calgary and the Islanders.

I'm not bashing, taking over your thread or suggesting how you picks games. These
are just stats I noticed. GL in all you do.

This is interesting but I don't see how the money would be better than straight PL. Do have actual numbers your can share - I tried to throw together a fast Excel but my numbers weren't supporting this.

ElCapitan · 10-21-10, 04:04 PM

Here is last year's data with scores and prices:

2009-2010 NHL System Games

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgGIgBnkVenPdEJySFB0bXlaN0k4OGJFbVJiLXN2d2c&hl=en#gid=2

(There are two tabs at the bottom, for each system)

Here is this years:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgGIgBnkVenPdDdBdmJNQXZodlVoREZlRHBoYUE1Mnc&authkey=CNDk54AC&hl=en#gid=1

(No tabs on this one. All the plays are together)

stevex · 10-21-10, 10:52 PM

Looking like a great night tonight for the system folks. Hoping the Kings make a little comeback here and win this game for a NICE 4 - 0 night

Congrats guys and lets keep it going.

stevex

rkelly110 · 10-22-10, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by mitchp

This is interesting but I don't see how the money would be better than straight PL. Do have actual numbers your can share - I tried to throw together a fast Excel but my numbers weren't supporting this.

Hi mitch, Basicly the PL is the real money, ML is just icing on the cake.
That's why you would do the 70-30%. A $20 wager would be $14 on PL
and $6 on ML. The only numbers I have are just looking back on the games.
I saw capitan chasing PL and ML and did a quick back check. I don't
know if it's a short trend or a long one. 2 of 3 last night +2.1 units.

cleonhr · 10-22-10, 07:39 AM

Good call on St Louis, i got Anaheim and Pitsburg myselh out of v1, to bad Kings didnt win. Anyway, keep up the good work man.....

cleonhr · 10-22-10, 07:39 AM

Anaheim scared me, cause i got 50$ on them, anyhow, they pull out 1st road win, thanks god....

ElCapitan · 10-22-10, 10:28 AM

10/21/10 Results

Not a bad night. Would have been nice if LAK could have stepped up, but I'll take it.

Anaheim Ducks (B) ML +183 (1.09 to win 2) *WIN*
Anaheim Ducks (B) PL -169 (5.85 to win 3.46) *WIN*

Los Angeles Kings (A) ML +120 (1 to win 1.20) *LOSS*
Los Angeles Kings (A) PL -250 (2.50 to win 1) *LOSS*

Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML +100 (1 to win 1) *WIN*
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL -315 (3.15 to win 1)*WIN*

San Jose Sharks (A) ML -111 (1.11 to win 1) *WIN*
San Jose Sharks (A) PL (favorite, play ML) (1.11 to win 1) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 15(A)-8(B)-5(C) (-1.50)
PL: 15(A)-4(B)-2(C) (-12.18)

ElCapitan · 10-22-10, 10:32 AM

10/22/10 Plays

Only one tonight...

Ottawa Senators (C) ML +136 (2.44 to win 3.32)

stevex · 10-23-10, 02:17 AM

Another W to add to the list. Seems like the C bets are hitting on the ML good so far, same trend last year?

ElCapitan · 10-23-10, 12:02 PM

10/22/10 Results

With last night's win, the ML is officially in the black! Let's hope it stays that way!

Ottawa Senators (C) ML +136 (2.44 to win 3.32) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 15(A)-8(B)-6(C) (+1.82)
PL: 15(A)-4(B)-2(C) (-12.18)

ElCapitan · 10-23-10, 12:08 PM

10/23/10 Plays

Buffalo Sabres (A) ML +144 (1 to win 1.44)
Buffalo Sabres (A) PL -196 (1.96 to win 1)

Los Angeles Kings (B) ML +116 (1.72 to win 2)
Los Angeles Kings (B) PL -232 (8.12 to win 3.5)

stevex · 10-23-10, 10:14 PM

Looking good again for today if the Kings can hold on we got ourselves a 2 - 0 night. Have been following SBP in NCAA Football and ouch, its been hurting. But anyway, thanks ElCapitan!

stevex

ElCapitan · 10-23-10, 10:50 PM

10/23/10 Results

Buffalo Sabres (A) ML +144 (1 to win 1.44) *WIN*
Buffalo Sabres (A) PL -196 (1.96 to win 1) *WIN*

Los Angeles Kings (B) ML +116 (1.72 to win 2) *WIN*
Los Angeles Kings (B) PL -232 (8.12 to win 3.5) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 16(A)-9(B)-6(C) (+5.26)
PL: 16(A)-5(B)-2(C) (-7.68)

tuneman · 10-24-10, 04:47 PM

Is there anything on the 3 game card tonight?

bauerranch · 10-24-10, 08:14 PM

Nothing tonight

stevex · 10-25-10, 12:44 AM

I know it was stated above that there wasn't a play tonight, but weren't the Devils a play tonight against the Rangers? If they where we all got lucky because the Devils ended up losing 1 - 3 not covering the ML or PL

stevex

PockyStick · 10-25-10, 02:12 AM

I played NJ tonight.

Kev the Brit · 10-25-10, 03:25 AM

NJ is a play with ElCapitan's PL system. NJ is not a play with JM's system, because it is the team's first proper road series. They have played 3 games away from home, but they were single games, not series.

NJ "B" Bet with ElCapitan.'s PL system on Wed 27th.

Regards
Kev

PS. I played NJ too.

jphil · 10-25-10, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by stevex

I know it was stated above that there wasn't a play tonight, but weren't the Devils a play tonight against the Rangers? If they where we all got lucky because the Devils ended up losing 1 - 3 not covering the ML or PL

stevex

yeh, i noticed that it was X'd out for some reason on elcap's spreadsheet. there could have been some filter that maybe prohibited it from being played. or maybe not. my pdf's from last season are on another computer until i have it tranferred to the new one. they did have a 6 gm. away schedule, if that possibly had anything to do w/ it.

no play; no loss.

jphil · 10-25-10, 03:29 AM

i spoke too soon. good observation kev.

ToTheHole · 10-25-10, 05:30 AM

Hold on... most if not all of the teams played through October wouldn't satisfy that first series play criteria and they were all good. So that doesn't actually distinguish NJ in that aspect, sorry.

El Capitan should shed some light on why it wasn't or was.

teecee · 10-25-10, 06:49 AM

i went ahead and played n.j., and will continue to play them throughout the road trip, fwiw.

bauerranch · 10-25-10, 07:04 AM

I thought since they were in last place we should pass and I did

mitchp · 10-25-10, 07:12 AM

I pllayed NJ because as far as I understood it you don't play the team with the worst road record and don't play a team first series if it starts on the road. This is the reason we should not have bet the Duck at the start of the schedule (Lost a C bet).

ElCapitan · 10-25-10, 09:02 AM

Sorry boys. The Devils were a play last night. I did not have access to a computer yesterday.

ElCapitan · 10-25-10, 09:04 AM

10/24/10 Plays

New Jersey Devils (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05)
New Jersey Devils (A) PL -320 (3.2 to win 1)

ElCapitan · 10-25-10, 11:28 AM

10/24/10 Results

New Jersey Devils (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05) *LOSS*
New Jersey Devils (A) PL -320 (3.2 to win 1) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 17(A)-9(B)-6(C) (+4.26)
PL: 17(A)-5(B)-2(C) (-10.88)

ElCapitan · 10-25-10, 11:31 AM

10/25/10 Plays

Just one today.

Phoenix Coyotes (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18)
Phoenix Coyotes (A) PL -254 (2.54 to win 1)

stevex · 10-25-10, 01:15 PM

Quick question, is ElCapitan's system different than JM's?

stevex

ElCapitan · 10-25-10, 01:26 PM

Only the ML portion of it.

mrginandtonic · 10-25-10, 06:00 PM

thanks for posting the plays. i've been following you since last season. seems like the ML is doing well, not so sure about the PL. may be it will catch on as the season goes on. anyways, great work.

Bet Striker · 10-25-10, 08:06 PM

look forward to playing some of these.
Question?
What is his system record so far this year?
It looks to me like the records displayed are just for straight bets.

stevex · 10-25-10, 10:18 PM

Tough ML loss with the Coyotes, but PL did cover.

stevex

mitchp · 10-26-10, 07:48 AM

For those just arriving and interested in how things have progressed, we have had 17 series (though two in my book is questionable ). Betting the PL:

12 - A wins
2 - B wins
2 - C wins
1- C lose

The one C Loss was Anaheim at the start of the season and we should not have played it because they started their season on the road with three games opposite division. Florida, which was an A win was the same and shuldn't have been played.

I think over all its been a good season, if only those PL odds were better. You put up a lot to win a little.