NHL Situational Plays

[emceeaye]

Enjoy, and feel free to tweak

H and o:rest >= 1 and tA(assists) >= oA(assists) + 1 and tA(power play goals/oenalties) >= oA(power play goals/oenalties) + .01 and tA(shots on goal) >= oA(shots on goal) + 3 and p:shots on goal >= 27 and pp:shots on goal >= 27 and ppp:shots on goal >= 27 and season >= 2010

Never a losing season since 2010

[emceeaye]

further-tweaked obvious rationale query:


H and o:rest >= 1 and tA(assists) >= oA(assists) + 1 and day != Tuesday and tA(power play goals/oenalties) >= oA(power play goals/oenalties) + .01 and tA(shots on goal) >= oA(shots on goal) + 3 and p:shots on goal >= 26 and pp:shots on goal >= 26 and ppp:shots on goal >= 26 and day != Monday and tA(o:goals) <= 3 and season >= 2010

[escism]

Enjoy, and feel free to tweak

H and o:rest >= 1 and tA(assists) >= oA(assists) + 1 and tA(power play goals/oenalties) >= oA(power play goals/oenalties) + .01 and tA(shots on goal) >= oA(shots on goal) + 3 and p:shots on goal >= 27 and pp:shots on goal >= 27 and ppp:shots on goal >= 27 and season >= 2010

Never a losing season since 2010

Loving this one for tomorrow night!

[emceeaye]

Loving this one for tomorrow night!

I'm on them with you except Bruins ML because of the following Bases queries pointing to Panthers ML:

D and streak + o:streak=4 and 3>streak>0 and pvertime=0 and (month=11 or month<4) and line>102

AD and 10>penalties>5 and streak<4 and p:goals!=3 and 48>p:shots on goal>15 and day!=Sunday and day!=Monday and tS(W, N=5)<4 and 6>o:streak>-3

[emceeaye]

Redwings ML

Bases queries pointing to Redwings ML:

pvertime = 1 and p:margin = -1 and day = Tuesday and o:rest<3 and p:goals<3 and line>-255 and 3>o:streak>-4

p:shots on goal > po:shots on goal and p:AL and A and 0 < rest < 3

[escism]

Bruins ML?

Worked this up this morning. Pointing me towards the Bruins. Not sure if I'm over fitting it here or not, but the idea is that two teams both winning 3 out of their last 4 playing on the same amount of rest. I wanted to see how the Home Favorite stacked up.

tS(W,N=4) >=3 and HF and WP>50 and oS(W,N=4)>=3 and 2010 <season<=2014 and t:rest-o:rest<=1 and line<5.5

117-66 (0.72, 63.9%)	avg line: -153.9 / 141.5	on / against: +$1,687 / -$2,491	ROI: +6.0% / -13.6%
73-100-10 (-0.25, 42.2%)	avg total: 5.3

Take away the HF and the SU% drops to 60%. So I'm not sure if I'm over fitting it to this situation or not.

[emceeaye]

Blackhawks ml today based on today's post by Ross Benjamin

Here's the query based on Ross Benjamin's post today....I tweaked it a bit to increase ROI and WP:

tA(shots on goal) >= 29 and tA(o:goals) <= 2.9 and p:shots on goal >= po:shots on goal + 6 and pp:shots on goal >= ppo:shots on goal + 6 and ppp:shots on goal >= pppo:shots on goal + 6 and pppp:shots on goal >= ppppo:shots on goal + 6 and ppppp:shots on goal >= pppppo:shots on goal + 6

Only losing season in terms of ROI however was 2013.

[emceeaye]

Devils ML

Another RB pick for today that translates into good SDQL query:

HF and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and season>=2010

[escism]

Here's the query based on Ross Benjamin's post today....I tweaked it a bit to increase ROI and WP:

tA(shots on goal) >= 29 and tA(o:goals) <= 2.9 and p:shots on goal >= po:shots on goal + 6 and pp:shots on goal >= ppo:shots on goal + 6 and ppp:shots on goal >= pppo:shots on goal + 6 and pppp:shots on goal >= ppppo:shots on goal + 6 and ppppp:shots on goal >= pppppo:shots on goal + 6

Only losing season in terms of ROI however was 2013.

Maybe a parlay of the ML and the Over? Seems juicy. I was trying to write this one out, using shorthand, but couldn't get it. Thanks for taking the time to knock this out.

[escism]

Another RB pick for today that translates into good SDQL query:

HF and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and season>=2010

Great work! Added to the DB!

[emceeaye]

Here's one from Ross Benjamin on 12/28/14:

Small sample size but ROI and WP good.

p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>50 and o:WP<50 and season>=2009 and game number<42

[emceeaye]

help converting Ross Benjamin description from 12/23

Can anyone assist with the SDQL for this?

Any home team with a total of 5.5 that comes off a division 1-goal win in their previous game, versus an opponent that’s playing their 8th or more game in the last 14-days, has seen 37 of those 50-games (74%) go under the total since the beginning of the 1997-1998 season.

Thanks in advance.

[zxqwpdbg]

Can anyone assist with the SDQL for this?

Any home team with a total of 5.5 that comes off a division 1-goal win in their previous game, versus an opponent that’s playing their 8th or more game in the last 14-days, has seen 37 of those 50-games (74%) go under the total since the beginning of the 1997-1998 season.

Thanks in advance.

i will take a shot at it. im not 100% sure though.

H and total=5.5 and p:division=po:division and p:margin=1 and o:date-ppppppp:date<=14

not getting great o/u numbers. but looks like a nice ml fade.

[emceeaye]

Ross Benjamin situation (12/18/14)

Help with this one please.

Any road team that’s playing in the first half of the season, and has played 8 or more games in the last 14-days, they have a winning percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .250 to .400 is 24-8 (75%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 1997-1998 season.

A and game number<=42 and 14-tS(rest and N>=8)<=6 and 49>=WP>=40 and 40>=o:WP>=25

What am I getting wrong?

Thanks

[emceeaye]

i will take a shot at it. im not 100% sure though.

H and total=5.5 and p:division=po:division and p:margin=1 and o:date-ppppppp:date<=14

not getting great o/u numbers. but looks like a nice ml fade.

Looks fine, but I'm still not sure how to render "8 or more games in the past 14 days".


Perhaps this, but record doesnt look right:

H and total=5.5 and p:division=po:division and p:margin=1 and 14-S(o:rest and N>=8)<=6

[escism]

Looks fine, but I'm still not sure how to render "8 or more games in the past 14 days".


Perhaps this, but record doesnt look right:

H and total=5.5 and p:division=po:division and p:margin=1 and 14-S(o:rest and N>=8)<=6

I can't seem to get anything close to that either. Very strange.

[zxqwpdbg]

Looks fine, but I'm still not sure how to render "8 or more games in the past 14 days".


Perhaps this, but record doesnt look right:

H and total=5.5 and p:division=po:division and p:margin=1 and 14-S(o:rest and N>=8)<=6

"o:date-ppppppp:date<=14"

[emceeaye]

"o:date-ppppppp:date<=14"

That seems good for 8 or fewer games, but not seeing it for 8 or more.

[zxqwpdbg]

That seems good for 8 or fewer games, but not seeing it for 8 or more.

the accent is on the opposite side of the 14 so i thought it would refer to greater than. either way try this.

14-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest+pppp:rest+ ppppp:rest+pppppp:rest+ppppppp:rest) >= 8

[escism]

Lot of situations hitting today. What's every one looking at for the big slate of games tonight?

[zxqwpdbg]

Lot of situations hitting today. What's every one looking at for the big slate of games tonight?

im going islanders over kings.

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >=-2

[emceeaye]

im going islanders over kings.

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >=-2

Nice one, I like it!

However it conflicts with the following from Bases:

season > 2009 and 0 > power play goals - opower play goals > -3 and day != Tuesday and -4 -6 = -10 and month != 2 and month != 5 and month != 6 and (A or day != Sunday) and (215 > line > -212 or line > 249) and penalties < 10 and openalties > 1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal < 18 and op:shots on goal < 43 and p:assists != 5 and 14 > op:assists > 1 and p:shifts > 326 and 83 > op:shifts - p:shifts > -75 and po:goals > 0 and rest + o:rest < 7

No play for me.

Here's a combination of the two showing an even record:

op:shots on goal >= 35 and p:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and op:site = away)) and 0 >= o:rest - rest >= -2 and season >= 2009 and 0 > power play goals - opower play goals > -3 and day != Tuesday and -4 -6 = -10 and month != 2 and month != 5 and month != 6 and (A or day != Sunday) and (215 > line > -212 or line > 249) and penalties < 10 and openalties > 1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal < 18 and op:shots on goal < 43 and p:assists != 5 and 14 > op:assists > 1 and p:shifts > 326 and 83 > op:shifts - p:shifts > -75 and po:goals > 0 and rest + o:rest < 7

But sample size is so low, it probably has limited interpretability.

[emceeaye]

Flyers ML and Flyers/Panthers under

Flyers ML and flyers/panthers under:

HF and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and season>=2010

Flyers/Panthers under from one of today's Ross Benjamin...in 2013, however, it only broke even at 4-4:

H and p:HW and p:margin >= 3 and total = 5.5 and game number <= 42 and 49 >= WP >= 40

[emceeaye]

Hurricanes ML

No play due to too many conflicting queries.

[emceeaye]

This may have already been mentioned, but does anyone know how to view the ROI for over/unders in results of queries at SD site?

total=5 and 1>streak>-5 and 1>o:streak>-5 and day!=Saturday and month!=4 and season=2014

[nash13]

the odds for totals are not included as far as i know. i calculate them by using avg odds and look for avg profit year in year out.

[emceeaye]

the odds for totals are not included as far as i know. i calculate them by using avg odds and look for avg profit year in year out.

Ah, thanks.

[emceeaye]

Did anyone else have a number of picks today, but after discovering that major team contributors will be out of the line-ups due to injury, or conflicting query results, ended up with much fewer plays tonight?

[zxqwpdbg]

Did anyone else have a number of picks today, but after discovering that major team contributors will be out of the line-ups due to injury, or conflicting query results, ended up with much fewer plays tonight?

no, i just have one play on the oilers tonight. but i don't have many query's.

[emceeaye]

no, i just have one play on the oilers tonight. but i don't have many query's.

Yes, I was excited about the oilers tonight from at least one query, and then came upon this one from Ross Benjamin's post today. Although it has small sample size it apparently has been operating since 1996:

HD and line<=180 and WP<=30 and 30<=o:WP<=40 and o:streak<=-1 and game number<=42

[otunj]

Blue Jackets have won 7 straight regular season games when Steve Kozari is the ref

(referees [1] = Steve Kozari or referees [0] = Steve Kozari) and team = Blue Jackets and playoffs = 0

[emceeaye]

blue jackets/Hurricanes under

This one, inspired by today's Ross Benjamin post, is my only pick for today:

H and tA(goals)<=2.49 and total=5.5 and p:goals>=3 and pp:goals>=3 and ppp:goals>=3

I also picked Devils earlier, but after finding out about injury to leading scorer, I bought out.

[zxqwpdbg]

my bets tonight.

jets +120 2u
avalanche +127 1u
hurricanes +149 1u

[Jay Price]

op:ADW and opp:ADW and line>100

97-105 (-0.19, 48.0%)

avg line: 132.1 / -143.3

on / against: +$2,335 / -$3,411

ROI: +11.6% / -11.8%

Arizona. Not crazy about this play,though. When you add the oddball total of six goals it favors a little more, although significance on both sets are a little meh.

14-9 (0.43, 60.9%)	avg line: 132.1 / -143.0	on / against: +$933 / -$1,080	ROI: +40.6% / -32.5%
14-6-3 (0.78, 70.0%)	avg total: 6.0

[Jay Price]

For Nashville backers:

(oA(p:goals,N=2)) / (tA(p:shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and line>145 and line<155

137-147 (-0.20, 48.2%)

avg line: 149.6 / -162.1

on / against: +$5,735 / -$7,463

ROI: +20.2% / -16.2%

and if you add the 5 total:

39-33 (-0.01, 54.2%)

avg line: 149.2 / -162.1

on / against: +$2,505 / -$3,000

ROI: +34.8% / -25.7%