Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

1/15/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-36 +$29
Silver($5.00) = 74-77 -$53
Bronze($2.50) = 66-55 +$.83

Game Win %
ML= 366-270 57.55%
ML(Regulation)= 290-77 79.02%
O/U= 82-66 55.41%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 72-72 50.00%
55-59%= 98-68 59.04%
60-64= 89-67 57.05%
65-69%= 64-49 56.64%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 195-131 59.82%
TOR
PIT
ANA

[mitch51]

I'm thinking Pit with the OVER but we don't do parlays. No game today or total.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Small card so minors money parlays as usual.

TOR/BUF under 5, ANA REG and PIT REG

TOR ML, PIT ML, ANA ML

Thats all I've got for the hockey for tonight. Irons in the fire for the tennis, and just got a nice hit on a 5 team parlay in the football, or 'Soccer' to you heathens over the pond

[calmeat]

for me it was PIT reg and TOR ML

ALso did parlays damn you rumple for making think of them

ANA ML PIT ML

ANA ML PIT ML TOR ML

[Rumplebeanskin]

for me it was PIT reg and TOR ML

ALso did parlays damn you rumple for making think of them

ANA ML PIT ML

ANA ML PIT ML TOR ML

Yeah, I bet you're really cursing my name about now

[calmeat]

haha rumple yeah couldnt stop cursing you this morning after seeing the 9-1 ANA win.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Well, you're going to get a lot more chance to see me! Got hammered on the tennis today, took my BR right down. I have quite a distance to make up to get close to £100 again.

Balls! Serves me right. Ha, great pun!

[calmeat]

1/16/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-36 +$29
Silver($5.00) = 74-77 -$53
Bronze($2.50) = 66-56 -$1.67

Game Win %
ML= 369-270 57.75%
ML(Regulation)= 292-78 78.92%
O/U= 82-66 55.41%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 72-72 50.00%
55-59%= 99-68 59.28%
60-64= 91-67 57.59%
65-69%= 64-49 56.64%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 198-131 60.18%
OTT
TBL
STL

[mitch51]

A lot of good games, these are on top of all so far will be looking at goalies, chart, etc.

DET
MTL
BOS
WPG

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Calmeat

You have Bryzgalov for EDM and I see on another site that Scrivens is confirmed to start. That would change EDM as a probable game for me.

Ali

[ZdenoK]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/423855832694923264

[mitch51]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/sta...55832694923264

Thank you

Ali

[calmeat]

Calmeat

You have Bryzgalov for EDM and I see on another site that Scrivens is confirmed to start. That would change EDM as a probable game for me.

Ali

Yeah mitch sorry forgot to state that is a no play game. Scrivens first start with new team. Not touching that game or even thinking of it.

[mitch51]

@Calmeat, thanks.

MTL +110
DET +140
BOS -115
WPG -115

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

1 win down NYR

Now cmon STL!!

[Rumplebeanskin]

You know why STL lost right?

Like clockwork!

This has been a ridiculous night of betting involving me betting everything that I had left at 1 stage. I actually might just get away with it as well.

Who was it said I had to be disciplined and patient again? lol

What an idiot

[fataliz]

hi cat. why were you on rangers? wasn't DET a bronze play? appreciate your reply

[fataliz]

has anyone tracked the o/u leans? just curious. if not i might do so when i have time over the weekend just for kicks

[calmeat]

hi cat. why were you on rangers? wasn't DET a bronze play? appreciate your reply

fataliz,
The gold bronze and silver picks are just value picks. As you can see by the records the gold is the only one really in the +. I dont really play them.
What i am playing is the following

Top Game WIN% (Consensus)
Highest odds (following banmanj on this one)
Highest Avg Lead (.7 or greater)
Any game over 70% Game win %.


Last night NYR had the Highest odds that fit into banmanj's criteria (-140 to -195)

[calmeat]

You know why STL lost right?

Like clockwork!

This has been a ridiculous night of betting involving me betting everything that I had left at 1 stage. I actually might just get away with it as well.

Who was it said I had to be disciplined and patient again? lol

What an idiot

Ha yeah i actually didnt like them last night i told Jason that but we have done this way too many times and when we dont stick to the system we usually end up losing. So we are really trying hard to stick to the system and if it says to play it we play it. I just think they were due for a loss it was a bad spot for them. But yeah I feel the same about when i post what plays im gonna play. It seems if i actually type out my plays they are always bound to lose. Not sure if its just in my head but it sure feels that way.

[RollinDo]

has anyone tracked the o/u leans? just curious. if not i might do so when i have time over the weekend just for kicks

I hit on 60% of Under plays. I often post my leans on this site.
Problem is I often don't play them and lose out on $$.
Last night, I would have gone 4-1, but only went 2-0.

[RollinDo]

has anyone tracked the o/u leans? just curious. if not i might do so when i have time over the weekend just for kicks

Well, tonight I'll take a stab - small play - on the Under 5.5 (+113) in the Ducks-Hawks game. I think this will be tight checking and goalies will rise to the occasion...will be a playoff atmosphere I believe.

For weekend, at 1st glance, I like the following Unders:

NY Rangers-Ottawa
Isles-Flyers (1st period Under)
FL-Carolina
Colum-Buff
NJ-Phoenix
Calg-Van...just not sure about this one, as Vacouver might blow them away though.

[mitch51]

Last night I took a quick peek again, didn't think a possible game but after
crunching the numbers these are likely:

WAS
ANA but a slight lean towards CHI more due to the streaks.

Will be checking for goalies, etc.

@Calmeat, I too, sometimes feel posting the games might turn out as losses but then I ask myself why I didn't post the other games that were possibles and then they win.

Have a good day all. I'll be back later.


Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

So yeah, last night I deserved to get buried lol

I put some bets on before bed, around 11pm (as usual), some involving the tennis, plus some using the numbers here and a bit of personal opinion.

Put on 3, 2 team NHL parlays for a small amount, £2 each.

St Louis
Phoenix

Winnipeg
Tampa

Dallas
NYR

So I managed to lose all 3 of those, despite going 3/6 on the picks overall Down £6 at this point, but I'm asleep so it's ok.

I also took 2 of the best bets I found in the tennis (both in the Men's Doubles), one was -800, one was -350. I want to take back some of the cash the tennis STOLE from me yesterday when Del Potro lost. So I take my 2 tennis bets, and which NHL team to parlay them with. Who would I stake £10 on? If I had to pick just 1 team? Who do I have most faith in?

St Louis!

, I'm now down £16.

So I wake up around 4am. And see that my 3 tennis bets are still open (no surprise, the last game wasn't starting until 10am GMT or so), and I'm down £16. BUT I NEED MONEY! I HAVE NO PATIENCE! OR DISCIPLINE! AND JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO STOLE MY MONEY!! THIS IS MY CHANCE TO WIN IT BACK!!!!!!

At which point, I did a number of stupid things:

• I decided to put a bet on at 4:15am when I was still pretty much asleep (stupid)
• I made it a fivefold parlay to "maximise" my potential earnings (stupider)
• One of the 5 picks was the -350 Men's tennis doubles pick mentioned earlier. At 4:15am, they were 1 set to 0 down in a best of 3 set match (stupidest)
• In my infinite wisdom, I then place the entirety of my remaining bank role on said bet (stupidesterer)

So I sit there looking at my BR showing £0.00. And the game going on that I'm following on my phone in the dark. And it's looking bleak, this is me done! Then my double's team breaks their opponents serve! Then they win the 2nd, and break in the 3rd, and again in the 3rd! Ha, they managed to come back and win!

I woke up around 7 when my alarm went off for work. The rest of the day, one by one, they all hit. Every. Single. One.

Somehow on the evening I managed to make £11.50. And I deserved pretty much none of it.

Sorry to ramble, and sidetrack the thread. Just be safe in the knowledge that whatever and whoever you decide to back, you probably can't do it as stupidly as me. The best bit, is I know I won't learn a damn thing from any of it lol

[fataliz]

fataliz,
The gold bronze and silver picks are just value picks. As you can see by the records the gold is the only one really in the +. I dont really play them.
What i am playing is the following

Top Game WIN% (Consensus)
Highest odds (following banmanj on this one)
Highest Avg Lead (.7 or greater)
Any game over 70% Game win %.


Last night NYR had the Highest odds that fit into banmanj's criteria (-140 to -195)

arh i see, so the Top Game WIN% from consensus was STL? and not MIN since its not in your consensus

[jnsbanman]

I think what you just described here Rumple is going on TILT like big time lol... Some times though you need to be lucky to be good.

I have been there done this before and have learned a few times the hard way that patience is key. And to use the old cliche sports betting is a marathon and not a sprint.

I used to bet all matters of different sports and lose money like crazy. But have found profitable systems with NHL and MLB and will exclusive only bet those 2 sports.

While parlays look so tempting they are usually death for many a bankroll.

If you follow us here in NHL you will slowly build that bankroll.

[jnsbanman]

arh i see, so the Top Game WIN% from consensus was STL? and not MIN since its not in your consensus

Minnesota was consensus if Bryz was in net for Edmonton. Since Scrivens was making his first start with Edmonton that became a no play, shifting the play to STL... Thinking that perhaps there should have been no play made in this case because the Top play was void.

[mitch51]

I think what you just described here Rumple is going on TILT like big time lol... Some times though you need to be lucky to be good.

I have been there done this before and have learned a few times the hard way that patience is key. And to use the old cliche sports betting is a marathon and not a sprint.

I used to bet all matters of different sports and lose money like crazy. But have found profitable systems with NHL and MLB and will exclusive only bet those 2 sports.

While parlays look so tempting they are usually death for many a bankroll.

If you follow us here in NHL you will slowly build that bankroll.

You couldn't have said it any better as they are our thoughts too. Five words pretty much describes our betting "straight betting and flat betting".

[jnsbanman]

I'm a chaser, cant help it. In the current system has been working well.

[calmeat]

1/17/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 38-37 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 74-77 -$53
Bronze($2.50) = 69-59 -$1.84

Game Win %
ML= 375-275 57.69%
ML(Regulation)= 297-79 78.99%
O/U= 82-67 55.03%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 73-75 49.32%
55-59%= 102-69 59.65%
60-64= 93-68 57.76%
65-69%= 64-49 56.64%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 199-134 59.76%
CBJ

[mitch51]

Nice jnsbanman.

WAS +105

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[fataliz]

am i right to say there are 2 plays today?

- highest win% amongst consensus : CBJ
- highest odds : CHI
- highest avg lead : Nil
- over 70% : Nil

btw, how did you get your consensus cal? sorry for the qns...

[jnsbanman]

CHI will be a game time decision basically. It depends on if it breaks -140 odds (i have it at -138 bouncing to -140). I use pinnacle odds to decide if it is a play or not.

Consensus comes from another system that Calmeat runs and compares it against the spreadsheet he posts a picture of here.

[calmeat]

I will try to update for 7pm games later.

Consensus
SJS
WPG
PHI
CAR
CBJ
DAL
VAN

[mitch51]

Running late, morning games like:

TB
TB OV

Be back later

Ali