Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

Well Mitch im not totally sure i think they are 2 different beast. Underdogs in Baseball your more than likely gonna get 1 win from an underdog in a series. Hockey at least from what ive seen is pretty straight. favs win etc. But there are times were the dogs all win and may win for a bit then it goes back to normal.

Cant wait to see your baseball picks I run a baseball thread as well.

[mitch51]

Well Mitch im not totally sure i think they are 2 different beast. Underdogs in Baseball your more than likely gonna get 1 win from an underdog in a series. Hockey at least from what ive seen is pretty straight. favs win etc. But there are times were the dogs all win and may win for a bit then it goes back to normal.

Cant wait to see your baseball picks I run a baseball thread as well.

LOL, ok I can't wait.

Mitch & Ali

[Rumplebeanskin]

Ha, I was planning on finishing my betting at the end of the NHL season, taking the summer off to clear my mind then firing it up against once the NFL season started. Looks like that plan just went firmly out of the window haha

Tough break on the Avs Bobrovsky made 40 saves to bust my parlay. Didn't see that coming! Let's get em again tonight, nice slate of games but not too much jumps out at me at the moment

[mitch51]

I see CAR/BUF PPD probably due to weather!?

[calmeat]

1/7/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 65-74 -$81.75
Bronze($2.50) = 58-51 -$9.17

Game Win %
ML= 334-243 57.89%
ML(Regulation)= 262-72 78.44%
O/U= 77-63 55.00%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 63-64 49.61%
55-59%= 89-62 58.94%
60-64= 79-59 57.25%
65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
70+%= 42-11 79.25%

Consensus 175-113 60.76%
CAR
NJD
WPG
PHX
STL
PIT
ANA
LAK

[calmeat]

Kings win

I would agree with you on this one.

[jnsbanman]

STL, LAK and PHX for me.

[thedazzler18]

I got one more question: If the Islanders got 51,7% win chance today according to the system and they have moneyline odds way above evens at +140, why not take them? Same for Nashville Predators at 49,4% and moneyline odds +130.

[calmeat]

I got one more question: If the Islanders got 51,7% win chance today according to the system and they have moneyline odds way above evens at +140, why not take them? Same for Nashville Predators at 49,4% and moneyline odds +130.

You could do that if you would like and that is the same way of betting as the GOLD Silver and Bronze value plays. As you can see NYI and NSH are both silver plays. But you can also see how well those Value plays have been,

Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 65-74 -$81.75
Bronze($2.50) = 58-51 -$9.17

[mitch51]

Some of the games I like the lines are too high.
Like STL over -125
BOS +115
VAN over -140

GL

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Not a bad day.

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

I was close, but still not a disaster.

STL REG and PHX REG hit for me. PIT REG missed as they won in OT.

3 team Parlay. Isles win! Ducks win!

3rd team was LA

[calmeat]

1/8/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 68-75 -$69.25
Bronze($2.50) = 58-53 -$15.05

Game Win %
ML= 339-247 57.85%
ML(Regulation)= 266-73 78.47%
O/U= 78-63 57.85%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 65-65 50%
55-59%= 91-64 58.71%
60-64= 79-60 56.83%
65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
70+%= 43-11 79.63%

Consensus 179-116 60.68%
CHI
COL

[mitch51]

The games after crunching numbers:

MTL +101
CHI -180
CO -187

No bet on high lines. I'm leaning towards NYR and OTT.

Betting:

MTL +101

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Nothing for me I don't think. None of the win percentages leap at me. Montreal could be reasonable, but Philly are 8-2 in their last 10.

Rangers are playing decent road hockey and the line for Chicago is too high. Ottawa are hot, no idea what Colorado are doing at the moment after their loss to Calgary. They're still at home tho, so who knows.

Not even a short card parlay, but GL peeps!!!

[mitch51]

[calmeat]

1/9/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 68-75 -$69.25
Bronze($2.50) = 58-53 -$15.05

Game Win %
ML= 340-249 57.72%
ML(Regulation)= 266-74 78.24%
O/U= 78-64 54.93%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 66-66 50%
55-59%= 91-64 58.71%
60-64= 79-61 56.43%
65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
70+%= 43-11 79.63%

Consensus 180-117 60.61%
NJD
FLA
TBL
ANA
PHX
STL

[Rumplebeanskin]

Stats suggest everything you got on St Louis!

Anyone else feel like it's a bit of a trap game? Like this is almost too much of an easy win? Or am I just being gun shy from what Calgary did to me already this season?

[mitch51]

@Rumple

To me STL looks good but not at that line.

I'm still trying to finish crunching the numbers. Right now, I'd say:

BOS +110
BOS under 5 -120
BUF +117

Mitch says he likes DET +170

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

Stats suggest everything you got on St Louis!

Anyone else feel like it's a bit of a trap game? Like this is almost too much of an easy win? Or am I just being gun shy from what Calgary did to me already this season?

Yeah this kind of game does scare me always seem the dog wins.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Naw, bugger it. I'm not going to overthink this one. They're a top team, capable of scoring or grinding games out.

Calgary got smashed by Phoenix, and you can't just rise for games all the time like they did against the Avs. Also, STL > COL.

STL REG to bring the line down. No problems doing that with the average lead as high as it is. The Blues were 5 seconds away from a regulation win last time they were in Calgary, and STL have won their last 6.

I've also pulled the trigger on my Canes in regulation as well. Toronto are a mess right now, and even without Eric Staal, this should be a 60 minute win. Khodobin in goal to, he has been very good of late.

Mixed in a bunch of tennis picks just to be on the silly side. ZERO DISCIPLINE lol

[calmeat]

BAM thank you STL!

Rumple you got 2 wins how did your tennis go?

[Rumplebeanskin]

Pretty great evening!!

Del Potro beat Tursunov, had that match parlayed with STL and CAR.

Also had a 4 player parlay from the Australian Open Qualifiers. Kudla, De Bakker and Falconi all won. Heather Watson was the 4th, was 6-0, 2-0 up when her opponent retired, so a 3 man win there.

I had a bigger parlay of 7 players for a really small amount, that went 5/7 tho.

Add in STL REG and CAR REG, plus a 2 team parlay of both of them together. Man, I don't have night's like that very often!!!

[mitch51]

Pretty great evening!!

Del Potro beat Tursunov, had that match parlayed with STL and CAR.

Also had a 4 player parlay from the Australian Open Qualifiers. Kudla, De Bakker and Falconi all won. Heather Watson was the 4th, was 6-0, 2-0 up when her opponent retired, so a 3 man win there.

I had a bigger parlay of 7 players for a really small amount, that went 5/7 tho.

Add in STL REG and CAR REG, plus a 2 team parlay of both of them together. Man, I don't have night's like that very often!!!

Also, taking time off but will check thread to see how all are doing and give

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

When I started back after the Christmas NHL break I had a mighty £27 BR. Yesterday I made £20.20 profit, though I was very lucky, and did a lot of foolish, high risk bets. Betting too much to win not a lot, 1 loss can wipe you out. Since last Sunday morning, I'm up £36. I would love it if every week was like this, but I always go up and down so I'll just enjoy it while it lasts I'll no doubt watch as karma hits me, the cold streak comes on, and I drop that £30 in the next 6 or 7 days lol

Fortunately I now have about double the BR I started with after Xmas, to bet more sensibly and build it towards £100 I guess! You guys are awesome though, really enjoy checking in on here and seeing how people are doing. I'm still pretty new to betting really, so the help is always appreciated. I've been frequenting the tennis forum just to have a look around. Man, those guys are dicks to each other!!! lol Feeling the love in here, without doubt!

Who we on tonight? Liking the look of Washington I think. Might be one game too many to hit the bank of St Louis again, though this is the last of their road trip.

I'll wait and see the numbers though, as always.

[jnsbanman]

Early numbers are saying STL again... Both teams are going the opposite way... STL going 9-0-1 and VAN 3-3-4. Elliot in net and his numbers are fantastic. Lacks' are not quite as good. Head 2 Head series pretty even.

and STL at -107 odds is like a steal

[calmeat]

1/10/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-34 +$60
Silver($5.00) = 70-75 -$59.25
Bronze($2.50) = 61-53 -$7.17

Game Win %
ML= 347-251 58.03%
ML(Regulation)= 272-75 78.39%
O/U= 79-65 54.86%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 68-67 50.37%
55-59%= 92-65 58.60%
60-64= 82-61 57.34%
65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
70+%= 44-11 80%

Consensus 184-119 60.73%
WSH
COL
STL

[Rumplebeanskin]

STL and WAS ML are my plays. Yesterday was too good. Already had a few small losses today, not feeling confident. I'm sensing an inevitable come down from my upturn in fortunes

[calmeat]

Rumple, yeah i know ive got that not so great feeling about tonight but then again i had a similiar feeling last night. Im hoping at least one of the plays wins. Either STL wins again or hopefully PIT pulls out the win.

[calmeat]

also dont have to pick up my daughter from school today so i may try and update the sheet before game time.

[calmeat]

updated

[Rumplebeanskin]

How did we get on people? I watched the STL game, even though it finished at 5am (I feel great today lol). They were the better team, just didn't get the breaks. Just how it goes sometimes. Washington got me some cash, and I took my BR up to £75 now with the last round of Australian Open qualifiers in the tennis, another solid night!

How did we do people? Saw Penguins lost late?

[calmeat]

eh didnt do so well last night but weekends are usually good.
Going to the flyers game today in like 5 min so here is the sheet ill try to update before the night games if i can.

Consensus
PHI
NJD
CHI
OTT
MIN
PIT
SJS

[calmeat]

Updated

[Rumplebeanskin]

I've gone PIT ML and REG, and just put a very small live bet parlay on NJ and ANA since the lines have become a bit more favourable since the games started.