Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

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  • imarkp
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-05-12
    • 233

    #141
    nice call on cbj. need to cash some dogs to stay profitable. stl crapped the ice. 3-0 before I knew what hit me. forgot to bet min, didn't have time to check stats, too busy with football....don't know why I can't skip a line when posting. new putter. before I just had to hit enter button. i'm technically challenged. oh well..... opened acct at 5 dimes the other day. better 3 way lines than I was getting. checked out bovada but they don't have 3 way every day. thx....how do I send you pts?
    Comment
    • calmeat
      SBR MVP
      • 05-04-11
      • 1678

      #142
      alright adding some stats.

      W L % $ W L %
      Gold 22 15 59.46% $70.5 ML 150 102 59.52%
      Silver 30 29 50.85% -$11.75 O/U 42 31 57.53%
      Bronze 25 21 54.35% $0.23 ML reg 124 29 81.05%
      Game win %
      W L %
      50 27 17 61.36%
      55 33 27 55.00%
      60 32 31 50.79%
      65 29 19 60.42%
      70 30 7 81.08%


      Consensus
      50 32 60.98%
      BOS
      PIT
      Comment
      • PuckIt
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-11-12
        • 9416

        #143
        Interested to see why the CGY/WPG game is trending under so much
        Comment
        • imarkp
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-05-12
          • 233

          #144
          appreciate your work
          Comment
          • calmeat
            SBR MVP
            • 05-04-11
            • 1678

            #145
            A little dissapointed today. Was really liking WPG but my other system has CGY as the winner so no consensus there. I am going to start posting the records in this format from now on.

            11/18/13
            Value Plays
            Gold($10.00) = 22-15 +$70.50
            Silver($5.00) = 30-29 -$11.75
            Bronze($2.50) = 25-21 -$0.23

            Game Win %
            ML= 150-102 59.52%
            ML(Regulation)= 124-29 81.05%
            O/U= 42-31 57.53%

            Game Win % breakdown
            50-54%= 27-17 61.36%
            55-59%= 33-27 55%
            60-64= 32-31 50.79%
            65-69%= 29-19 60.42%
            70+%= 30-7 81.08%
            Comment
            • PuckIt
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-11-12
              • 9416

              #146
              You should be able to retain the table format if you're copy/pasting from somewhere, just not the colors.
              Comment
              • calmeat
                SBR MVP
                • 05-04-11
                • 1678

                #147
                Originally posted by PuckIt
                Interested to see why the CGY/WPG game is trending under so much
                Yeah looks like a score of 3-2 just based on avg scores.
                Comment
                • calmeat
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-04-11
                  • 1678

                  #148
                  Originally posted by PuckIt
                  You should be able to retain the table format if you're copy/pasting from somewhere, just not the colors.
                  Yeah i retain the format. Its just ugly to me. Was gonna try to make it look a bit more professional. Im sure ill fail at that. haha
                  Comment
                  • PuckIt
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-11-12
                    • 9416

                    #149
                    Could always attach a PDF document or something each day…then it looks like a professional report.
                    Comment
                    • calmeat
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-04-11
                      • 1678

                      #150
                      Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                      I like it, nice write up.

                      I see there is an energy, or rest stat on the link. Is that something that doesn't get included now or was it built in to a different stat that is still used?

                      I think it's a pretty useful aspect to consider is all. If you think that yesterday St Louis were 65% to beat Washington, but St Louis were coming off a solid game with Carolina, then they had to travel to Washington that night. The Caps didn't play on the 16th, and subsequently beat St Louis on the 17th 4-1. Granted it was a pretty slanted result (47 shots to 20 in STL favour), but still, not easy playing on your home ice then on the road the following day.
                      So Rumple Talked to jeff and it may have not been factored in but it is now.
                      Comment
                      • calmeat
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-04-11
                        • 1678

                        #151
                        Here is a quick legend for the sheet

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Index.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	15.0 KB
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                        Comment
                        • mitch51
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-15-12
                          • 4587

                          #152
                          Thanks calmeat

                          BOL
                          Mitch & Ali
                          Comment
                          • calmeat
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-04-11
                            • 1678

                            #153
                            Glad i didnt play that WPG lean i had. Hit both BOS and PIT for a good sunday including a nice NFL teaser.

                            11/19/13
                            Value Plays
                            Gold($10.00) = 22-15 +$70.50
                            Silver($5.00) = 31-29 -$6.75
                            Bronze($2.50) = 25-21 $0.23

                            Game Win %
                            ML= 152-103 59.61%
                            ML(Regulation)= 126-29 81.29%
                            O/U= 42-32 56.76%

                            Game Win % breakdown
                            50-54%= 27-17 61.36%
                            55-59%= 34-27 55.74%
                            60-64= 32-32 50%
                            65-69%= 30-19 61.22%
                            70+%= 30-7 81.08%

                            Consensus 52-32 61.90%
                            STL
                            OTT
                            DET
                            CBJ
                            LAK


                            Comment
                            • calmeat
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-04-11
                              • 1678

                              #154
                              11/20/13
                              Value Plays
                              Gold($10.00) = 22-15 +$70.50
                              Silver($5.00) = 31-32 -$29
                              Bronze($2.50) = 27-23 -$1.65

                              Game Win %
                              ML= 152-103 59.61%
                              ML(Regulation)= 126-29 81.29%
                              O/U= 42-32 56.76%

                              Game Win % breakdown
                              50-54%= 27-19 58.70%
                              55-59%= 34-28 54.84%
                              60-64= 32-33 49.23%
                              65-69%= 31-22 58.49%
                              70+%= 30-7 81.08%

                              Consensus 54-35 60.67%
                              OTT
                              ANA


                              Comment
                              • calmeat
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-04-11
                                • 1678

                                #155
                                11/21/13
                                Value Plays
                                Gold($10.00) = 23-15 +$80.50
                                Silver($5.00) = 33-32 -$16.25
                                Bronze($2.50) = 27-23 -$1.65

                                Game Win %
                                ML= 156-113 57.99%
                                ML(Regulation)= 128-29 81.53%
                                O/U= 42-34 55.26%

                                Game Win % breakdown
                                50-54%= 27-21 56.25%
                                55-59%= 35-29 54.69%
                                60-64= 32-33 49.23%
                                65-69%= 32-22 59.26%
                                70+%= 31-7 81.58%

                                Consensus 54-37 59.34%
                                STL
                                TOR
                                CHI
                                PHX
                                SJS
                                LAK
                                Comment
                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-13-13
                                  • 203

                                  #156
                                  Looking back over the last few days, incredibly small sample size, but form seems to be playing a really important role in predicting winners. Shocking I know lol

                                  Teams that are significantly higher on form than their opponents, unless it's offset by being tired, they're winning a high percentage of match ups. Not rocket science I know, but from that theory I'd expect wins tonight from:

                                  Philly
                                  Dallas
                                  Phoenix

                                  Plus potentially
                                  St Louis
                                  LA
                                  San Jose

                                  The last 3 are offset a little by fatigue. The top 3 are well rested and in much better form than their opponents. Have to see how this pans out, especially the Dallas game as you have it 59%-41% win for the Rangers.
                                  Comment
                                  • calmeat
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-04-11
                                    • 1678

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                    Looking back over the last few days, incredibly small sample size, but form seems to be playing a really important role in predicting winners. Shocking I know lol

                                    Teams that are significantly higher on form than their opponents, unless it's offset by being tired, they're winning a high percentage of match ups. Not rocket science I know, but from that theory I'd expect wins tonight from:

                                    Philly
                                    Dallas
                                    Phoenix

                                    Plus potentially
                                    St Louis
                                    LA
                                    San Jose

                                    The last 3 are offset a little by fatigue. The top 3 are well rested and in much better form than their opponents. Have to see how this pans out, especially the Dallas game as you have it 59%-41% win for the Rangers.
                                    Hmm very interesting something to def keep an eye on.
                                    Comment
                                    • Rumplebeanskin
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 11-13-13
                                      • 203

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                      I'd expect wins tonight from:

                                      Philly
                                      W 4-1 Shots 46-30

                                      Dallas
                                      L 2-3 Shots 43-27

                                      Phoenix
                                      L 3-4 Shots 44-30

                                      Plus potentially
                                      St Louis
                                      W 3-2 Shots 26-31

                                      LA
                                      L 1-2 Shots 35-15

                                      San Jose
                                      W 5-1 Shots 36-37
                                      Goalies then! They all had a great chance to win, all had more shots than their opponent, just didn't get a W.

                                      Not really sure what you can take from that. Phoenix losing cost me a big chunk of change last night. Toss :-(
                                      Comment
                                      • calmeat
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-04-11
                                        • 1678

                                        #159
                                        yeah kings game was no good for me. I just dont understand that team they will outshoot the other team by like 20 shots and lose. pretty much broke even last night. Need to start narrowing these games down that i am gonna play
                                        Comment
                                        • calmeat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-04-11
                                          • 1678

                                          #160
                                          11/22/13
                                          Value Plays
                                          Gold($10.00) = 23-15 +$80.50
                                          Silver($5.00) = 34-34 -$23.25
                                          Bronze($2.50) = 28-23 +$.85

                                          Game Win %
                                          ML= 163-116 58.42%
                                          ML(Regulation)= 133-30 81.60%
                                          O/U= 43-34 55.84%

                                          Game Win % breakdown
                                          50-54%= 28-21 57.14%
                                          55-59%= 38-30 55.88%
                                          60-64= 34-34 50%
                                          65-69%= 33-23 58.93%
                                          70+%= 31-7 81.58%

                                          Consensus 57-39 59.38%
                                          PIT
                                          CGY
                                          ANA

                                          * Fasth in net for ANA the numbers are right just forgot to switch him on here)

                                          Comment
                                          • Rumplebeanskin
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-13-13
                                            • 203

                                            #161
                                            Just couldn't look past Washington last night. Cost me
                                            Comment
                                            • calmeat
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-04-11
                                              • 1678

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                              Just couldn't look past Washington last night. Cost me
                                              aw man sorry to hear that. I took PIT ANA and CGY last night so i finally had a good night. hoping today goes well.
                                              Comment
                                              • calmeat
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-04-11
                                                • 1678

                                                #163
                                                11/23/13
                                                Value Plays
                                                Gold($10.00) = 24-16 +$80.50
                                                Silver($5.00) = 34-34 -$23.25
                                                Bronze($2.50) = 28-24 -$1.65

                                                Game Win %
                                                ML= 168-116 59.15%
                                                ML(Regulation)= 136-32 80.95%
                                                O/U= 44-35 55.70

                                                Game Win % breakdown
                                                50-54%= 30-21 58.82%
                                                55-59%= 38-30 55.88%
                                                60-64= 36-34 51.43%
                                                65-69%= 34-23 59.65%
                                                70+%= 31-7 81.58%

                                                Consensus 60-39 60.61%
                                                BOS
                                                TOR
                                                PHX
                                                STL
                                                CHI
                                                LAK
                                                SJS
                                                Comment
                                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 11-13-13
                                                  • 203

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by calmeat
                                                  aw man sorry to hear that. I took PIT ANA and CGY last night so i finally had a good night. hoping today goes well.
                                                  Thats ok, your stats did say Montreal lol
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Rumplebeanskin
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-13-13
                                                    • 203

                                                    #165
                                                    Jeez, I could not be colder right now.

                                                    Hopped on a BOS in regulation bet about 15 seconds before they gave up that SHG, then backed Pittsburgh as well. Brutal night, quite the loss.

                                                    Prolly cool it off for a while since I'm pretty much back to evens. Was up after last weekend, but meh, comes and goes.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • calmeat
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                      • 1678

                                                      #166
                                                      Rumple,
                                                      If you want i can tell you how im playing them. Right now im taking the highest play in each catagory (50-54,55-60, etc..) and chasing that for 3 games. Mainly chasing in the 65-69,and 70+ categories. and then small chase on the other catagories and may or may not play the 60-64 cat. The 60-64 cat chase has done the worse with like 3 losses but the other catagories have turned a profit doing that. Tonight my plays were
                                                      BOS, MIN, PIT LAK SJS. The MIN play changed to NYR though since harding didnt play but i already put my bet in for MIN and the same with LAK's that bet i put in before goalie change in STL and then STL became the bet. Im giving that a chance to see if i can win some money that way.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Rumplebeanskin
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-13-13
                                                        • 203

                                                        #167
                                                        Sounds like a reasonable idea. Let me know how you get on, could be an interesting way of doing things.

                                                        At the moment I can't see any consistency or angle at all lol
                                                        Comment
                                                        • calmeat
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-04-11
                                                          • 1678

                                                          #168
                                                          11/24/13
                                                          Value Plays
                                                          Gold($10.00) = 24-16 +$80.50
                                                          Silver($5.00) = 35-36 -$30.25
                                                          Bronze($2.50) = 28-26 -$6.65

                                                          Game Win %
                                                          ML= 176-120 59.46%
                                                          ML(Regulation)= 141-35 80.11%
                                                          O/U= 44-36 55%

                                                          Game Win % breakdown
                                                          50-54%= 32-22 59.26%
                                                          55-59%= 41-32 56.16%
                                                          60-64= 37-34 52.11%
                                                          65-69%= 35-24 59.32%
                                                          70+%= 32-7 82.05%

                                                          Consensus 65-41 61.32%
                                                          OTT
                                                          DET

                                                          Comment
                                                          • Rumplebeanskin
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-13-13
                                                            • 203

                                                            #169
                                                            Detroit with Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos for me I think. Already lost my early parlay. Carolina wins, Baltimore wins, Kansas finds a way to lose
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Rumplebeanskin
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-13-13
                                                              • 203

                                                              #170
                                                              Ice. Cold.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • calmeat
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-04-11
                                                                • 1678

                                                                #171
                                                                11/25/13
                                                                Value Plays
                                                                Gold($10.00) = 24-16 +$90.50
                                                                Silver($5.00) = 35-37 -$35.50
                                                                Bronze($2.50) = 28-26 -$6.65

                                                                Game Win %
                                                                ML= 177-127 59.40%
                                                                ML(Regulation)= 142-35 80.23%
                                                                O/U= 44-36 55%

                                                                Game Win % breakdown
                                                                50-54%= 32-22 59.26%
                                                                55-59%= 41-32 56.16%
                                                                60-64= 37-35 51.39%
                                                                65-69%= 36-24 60%
                                                                70+%= 32-7 82.05%

                                                                Consensus 66-42 61.11%
                                                                BOS
                                                                TOR
                                                                NJD
                                                                STL
                                                                CHI
                                                                Comment
                                                                • calmeat
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-04-11
                                                                  • 1678

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                                                  Ice. Cold.
                                                                  Man bad beats Rumple.

                                                                  So im starting my chase again here is what i got (everytime i post plays they lose anymore so i could be dooming myself here)
                                                                  BOS 1u -52%
                                                                  PHI 1u - 59%
                                                                  CHI .5u -64%
                                                                  NJD 2u -65%
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Rumplebeanskin
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 11-13-13
                                                                    • 203

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Used my last 2 units on NJD lol

                                                                    That takes me back to bang on evens, probably a good time to walk away
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • calmeat
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                                      • 1678

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                                                      Used my last 2 units on NJD lol

                                                                      That takes me back to bang on evens, probably a good time to walk away
                                                                      Aw man sorry to hear Rumple. Ill still be plugging away if you decide to come back
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • calmeat
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                                        • 1678

                                                                        #175
                                                                        11/26/13
                                                                        Value Plays
                                                                        Gold($10.00) = 26-16 +$101.50
                                                                        Silver($5.00) = 36-39 -$40
                                                                        Bronze($2.50) = 29-27 -$7.15

                                                                        Game Win %
                                                                        ML= 181-125 59.15%
                                                                        ML(Regulation)= 144-37 79.56%
                                                                        O/U= 45-37 54.88%

                                                                        Game Win % breakdown
                                                                        50-54%= 33-22 60%
                                                                        55-59%= 42-34 55.26%
                                                                        60-64= 39-36 52%
                                                                        65-69%= 36-25 59.02%
                                                                        70+%= 32-7 82.05%

                                                                        Consensus 69-44 61.06%
                                                                        ANA

                                                                        Comment
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