Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • calmeat
    SBR MVP
    • 05-04-11
    • 1678

    #106
    yeah Joe05ca picks are ML
    Comment
    • Joe05ca
      SBR Sharp
      • 06-21-13
      • 450

      #107
      Thanks.
      Comment
      • calmeat
        SBR MVP
        • 05-04-11
        • 1678

        #108
        uhh ridiculouis i knew it was gonna happen once i started loading up the plays that today would be the day it turns and turns ugly.... Well hoping the next days get better
        Comment
        • calmeat
          SBR MVP
          • 05-04-11
          • 1678

          #109
          on a side note the player props 3-1 and would have went 4-0 if LAK game didnt go to OT.
          Comment
          • Rumplebeanskin
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-13-13
            • 203

            #110
            Just signed up so first post!

            Been tailing your bets for 2/3 few weeks now, really appreciate the work you put in to what you do. The angle appeals to me with it being statistical, it's numbers and comparable figures. As last night showed though, numbers don't always work out

            Just wanted to say thanks, and to say that last night was just a blip.

            COL 34-28
            WSH 34-27
            NYR 35-28
            MTL 29-45
            ANA 34-25
            DET 43-21
            OTT 24-31
            STL 39-19
            NYI 33-33

            Some pretty wonky shot totals going on there for teams that still got handed a loss, thought it's not a be all and end all stat. That won't happen very often. Montreal and Ottawa really surprised me, and simply got outplayed. Any given night tho, right?

            Keep going, and thanks again. Gotta get bitten at some point, we'll have our fun the rest of the week! That 90% win for 70% or higher games had to come down at some point.
            Comment
            • calmeat
              SBR MVP
              • 05-04-11
              • 1678

              #111
              Hey Rumple welcome sorry your first post comes on the heals of such a bad night. Hopefully it will go back to its winning ways. Its funny i think im more pissed because i told myself not to play early week games heavy (seems later in the week teams perform as expected) and of course i did.
              Comment
              • Rumplebeanskin
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-13-13
                • 203

                #112
                I think that's human nature. Would you be regretting putting so much on if the form book had been correct and you were sat on a big win this morning?

                Always seems a bad idea when you lose.

                Onwards and Upwards!!
                Comment
                • calmeat
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-04-11
                  • 1678

                  #113
                  W L % $ W L %
                  Gold 22 14 61.11% $81.5 ML 132 88 60.00%
                  Silver 24 24 50.00% -$16 O/U 37 29 56.06%
                  Bronze 22 20 52.38% -$1.27 ML reg 111 24 82.22%
                  Game win %
                  W L %
                  50 23 15 60.53%
                  55 30 25 54.55%
                  60 29 26 52.73%
                  65 24 16 60.00%
                  70 27 5 84.38%



                  Consensus 37-24 60.66%
                  MIN
                  PIT
                  DAL
                  Comment
                  • calmeat
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-04-11
                    • 1678

                    #114
                    So some more player props to see how they do

                    Total shots on goal in the game - Sidney Crosby (PIT)
                    4(-140)under



                    Total shots on goal in the game - David Perron (EDM)
                    4 (-140)under



                    Total shots on goal in the game - Mark Arcobello (EDM)
                    2(EVEN)under
                    Comment
                    • Rumplebeanskin
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-13-13
                      • 203

                      #115
                      And the 70% game winner percentage keeps on dropping!

                      Returning to the norm I think, 90% was pretty high and 84% is still pretty high.

                      Killed my 3 team parlay tho, stupid Penguins
                      Comment
                      • calmeat
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-04-11
                        • 1678

                        #116
                        Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                        And the 70% game winner percentage keeps on dropping!

                        Returning to the norm I think, 90% was pretty high and 84% is still pretty high.

                        Killed my 3 team parlay tho, stupid Penguins

                        Yeah i actually stayed away from that game and only took DAL. Im gonna have to be picky with my actual plays until BR recovers. Philly always plays PIT very well at PIT.
                        Comment
                        • calmeat
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-04-11
                          • 1678

                          #117
                          W L % $ W L %
                          Gold 22 14 61.11% $81.5 ML 134 89 60.09%
                          Silver 25 24 51.02% -$14 O/U 38 29 56.72%
                          Bronze 23 20 53.49% $1.23 ML reg 112 26 81.16%
                          Game Win%
                          W L %
                          50 23 15 60.53%
                          55 31 25 55.36%
                          60 29 26 52.73%
                          65 25 16 60.98%
                          70 27 6 81.82%


                          Consensus
                          39 25 60.94%
                          BOS
                          STL
                          CHI
                          Comment
                          • Rumplebeanskin
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 11-13-13
                            • 203

                            #118
                            Took Blues, Hawks, Bruins as predicted below, added in Sharks and now I'm mad I didn't back it harder!!

                            Especially after how hard I tailed Tuesday when I lost out

                            Still, back to Evens, bring on tonight, finish the working week strong!
                            Comment
                            • imarkp
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 10-05-12
                              • 233

                              #119
                              anyone, what's a good book to use in usa for hockey? tired of getting crap 3 way lines. can't believe lak came back. on the other side ana gets romped.... bet chi and bos in reg. ml was too high on those 2. don't like going past -150. do you have a cutoff number on ml bets?
                              Comment
                              • calmeat
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-04-11
                                • 1678

                                #120
                                Hey Rumple i know what you mean. I always seem to do that, i bet small and safe and then the one time when i feel real good i back it harder and it looses, drives me nuts.

                                @imarkp
                                I use 5dimes for everything but im considering placing some in bovada i have to see how the lines compare
                                Comment
                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-13-13
                                  • 203

                                  #121
                                  Interested to see what your stats look like today. Thinking about dropping a significantly bigger bet than usual on someone, or maybe a 2 team parlay. Probably Wild, maybe Pitts. Can probably get evens on those 2 combined.

                                  Leafs, Kings, Habs, Bruins, Sharks all road favourites, so could be some fun ways to go tonight.
                                  Comment
                                  • SUNDOGG
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 11-12-13
                                    • 177

                                    #122
                                    Going big on pitts -1.5 12.5 units. all that fire power gets it going tonight!

                                    like minn in regulation tonight with the U.

                                    BOL
                                    Comment
                                    • imarkp
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-05-12
                                      • 233

                                      #123
                                      just checked 5dimes they don't have 3 way lines. hmm how do you bet a game in reg then?
                                      Comment
                                      • SUNDOGG
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-12-13
                                        • 177

                                        #124
                                        willhill.com offers 60 min lines
                                        Comment
                                        • calmeat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-04-11
                                          • 1678

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by imarkp
                                          just checked 5dimes they don't have 3 way lines. hmm how do you bet a game in reg then?
                                          5 dimes has REG.

                                          Click image for larger version

Name:	Capture.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	14.0 KB
ID:	29122260
                                          Comment
                                          • imarkp
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 10-05-12
                                            • 233

                                            #126
                                            sorry cal, checked site couldn't find them. now I see.....called 5 dimes earlier and rep. had no idea what i was talking about. checked bovada too and didn't see them posted either. thought maybe it was too early. the book I use now doesn't post 3 way until around 3pm. thx
                                            Comment
                                            • calmeat
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-04-11
                                              • 1678

                                              #127
                                              W L % $ W L %
                                              Gold 22 14 61.11% $81.5 ML 139 90 60.70%
                                              Silver 26 25 50.98% -$14.5 O/U 39 29 57.35%
                                              Bronze 24 20 54.55% $3.73 ML reg 116 27 81.12%

                                              Game Win%
                                              W L %
                                              50 24 15 61.54%
                                              55 32 25 56.14%
                                              60 30 27 52.63%
                                              65 27 16 62.79%
                                              70 27 6 81.82%


                                              Consensus
                                              42 25 62.69%
                                              TOR
                                              ANA (carefull with players out)
                                              PIT
                                              BOS
                                              MIN
                                              WPG
                                              SJS
                                              Comment
                                              • PuckIt
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 01-11-12
                                                • 9416

                                                #128
                                                how are u doing the dailyfaceoff predictions? Was that your page way back when?
                                                Comment
                                                • calmeat
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-04-11
                                                  • 1678

                                                  #129
                                                  It was Jeff Tay who was doing them I helped him automate his system then last year he gave the system to run since he had other things he wanted to do.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PuckIt
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 01-11-12
                                                    • 9416

                                                    #130
                                                    How have your results been so far?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • calmeat
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                      • 1678

                                                      #131
                                                      W L % $ W L %
                                                      Gold 22 15 59.46% $70.5 ML 145 94 60.67%
                                                      Silver 27 26 50.94% -$15.25 O/U 40 29 57.97%
                                                      Bronze 25 20 55.56% $2.98 ML reg 120 29 80.54%
                                                      Game Win%
                                                      W L %
                                                      50 25 15 62.50%
                                                      55 33 25 56.90%
                                                      60 31 29 51.67%
                                                      65 28 18 60.87%
                                                      70 29 6 82.86%


                                                      Consensus
                                                      46 28 62.16%
                                                      TOR
                                                      CHI
                                                      STL
                                                      COL
                                                      CGY
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PuckIt
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 01-11-12
                                                        • 9416

                                                        #132
                                                        TOR
                                                        CHI
                                                        STL
                                                        COL
                                                        CGY

                                                        So you are playing these ML's?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • calmeat
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-04-11
                                                          • 1678

                                                          #133
                                                          Hey puckIt sorry was out most of day and didnt get a chance to respond. So I ended up playing CHI STL and DET. What i wanted to do then switched it was to play TOR CHI STL. TOR was such a lock tonight not sure why i didnt pull the trigger on it.

                                                          Any way we are working on getting the same format in my sheet to replicate what was shown on dailyfaceoff.

                                                          Do you guys want me to just post the info including records or still do consensus and my picks?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • calmeat
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-04-11
                                                            • 1678

                                                            #134


                                                            Thanks mitch for the pts.
                                                            W L % $ W L %
                                                            Gold 22 15 59.46% $70.5 ML 148 99 59.92%
                                                            Silver 29 28 50.88% -$13 O/U 41 31 56.94%
                                                            Bronze 25 21 54.35% $0.23 ML reg 123 29 80.92%
                                                            game win%
                                                            W L %
                                                            50 26 16 61.90%
                                                            55 33 27 55.00%
                                                            60 32 30 51.61%
                                                            65 28 18 60.87%
                                                            70 30 7 81.08%
                                                            Consensus
                                                            48 31 60.76%
                                                            STL
                                                            NYR
                                                            CHI
                                                            MIN - im really liking this game.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Rumplebeanskin
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-13-13
                                                              • 203

                                                              #135
                                                              I personally like the stats to see how the picks are panning out with the various win percentages.

                                                              How do you work out the consensus picks that you post? Only teams above a certain win percentage?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • calmeat
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-04-11
                                                                • 1678

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                                                I personally like the stats to see how the picks are panning out with the various win percentages.

                                                                How do you work out the consensus picks that you post? Only teams above a certain win percentage?

                                                                Consensus picks are the Game win % games in the Binary system (what i post) and my original system that uses overall team home/away stats.

                                                                Hopefully tonight we will be abel to start showing some more stats.

                                                                Here is the original setup
                                                                NHL news, starting goalies, team lineups, fantasy hockey analysis, blog and betting trends.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-13-13
                                                                  • 203

                                                                  #137
                                                                  I like it, nice write up.

                                                                  I see there is an energy, or rest stat on the link. Is that something that doesn't get included now or was it built in to a different stat that is still used?

                                                                  I think it's a pretty useful aspect to consider is all. If you think that yesterday St Louis were 65% to beat Washington, but St Louis were coming off a solid game with Carolina, then they had to travel to Washington that night. The Caps didn't play on the 16th, and subsequently beat St Louis on the 17th 4-1. Granted it was a pretty slanted result (47 shots to 20 in STL favour), but still, not easy playing on your home ice then on the road the following day.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • calmeat
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-04-11
                                                                    • 1678

                                                                    #138
                                                                    i believe it does get factored in ill have to check with jeff though to confirm. We got some extra stats included now so ill post them today.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • imarkp
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 10-05-12
                                                                      • 233

                                                                      #139
                                                                      opened acct at 5 dimes the other day. better 3 way lines than I was getting. checked out bovada but they don't have 3 way lines everyday. thx. how do I send pts?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • calmeat
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                                        • 1678

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by imarkp
                                                                        opened acct at 5 dimes the other day. better 3 way lines than I was getting. checked out bovada but they don't have 3 way lines everyday. thx. how do I send pts?
                                                                        Good glad to hear. They also have reduced ML which help a little as well.

                                                                        to send points you can just click the little give pts icon (next to the thumbs up) on the bottom of one of my posts.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...