Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

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  • calmeat
    SBR MVP
    • 05-04-11
    • 1678

    #36
    Circles are to show value with picks the more white the better the value
    Comment
    • ur moms fantasy
      SBR Hustler
      • 12-01-12
      • 57

      #37
      So I'm dumb n I just want his picks tonight, can I ask for that, or do I have to study this chart thing
      Comment
      • TankHankerous
        SBR MVP
        • 03-22-12
        • 2088

        #38
        Study the chart and make your play broseph
        Comment
        • calmeat
          SBR MVP
          • 05-04-11
          • 1678

          #39
          Sorry if the charts not clear enough. Ill see if i can get a better picture or something.
          Comment
          • calmeat
            SBR MVP
            • 05-04-11
            • 1678

            #40
            Philly game is an error due to Rangers goalie first start.



            Gold - CGY
            SILVER = CHI, WSH, PHX
            Bronze = MIN

            CHI Under, WPG Under, CAR Under

            Leans - VAN Over, WSH Over
            Comment
            • calmeat
              SBR MVP
              • 05-04-11
              • 1678

              #41
              W L % $ W L %
              Gold 15 7 68.18% $88.5 ML 57 36 61.29%
              Silver 12 7 63.16% $12.5 O/U 19 16 54.29%
              Bronze 8 9 47.06% -$7.26 REG 76 17 81.72%
              Comment
              • Manel88
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-19-12
                • 191

                #42
                The "ML" and "REG" stats are based on the "Game Win %" column?
                Comment
                • calmeat
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-04-11
                  • 1678

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Manel88
                  The "ML" and "REG" stats are based on the "Game Win %" column?

                  Sorry for not clarifying that as well. So Yes ML is based on Game Win %. REG is not based on anything and is just keeping track of how many games go to OT.

                  Here is the breakdown on Game Win % (when it says 55 for example that is the range of 55-59%)
                  W L %
                  50 8 1 88.89%
                  55 15 15 50.00%
                  60 11 9 55.00%
                  65 9 6 60.00%
                  70 15 2 88.24%
                  And based on those records SJS, VAN, MTL, CGY, and LAK would be the plays. So as you can see some plays will contradict eachother. Just remember the Gold Silver and Bronze plays are based on "Value". For example the PHX game, LAK have a higher Game win % but only by 2%pts and PHX at +135 makes PHX a "Value" Bet.
                  Comment
                  • Manel88
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-19-12
                    • 191

                    #44
                    Why are only those plays based on the Game Win % and not also CHI, NAS or MIN for example?
                    Comment
                    • calmeat
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-04-11
                      • 1678

                      #45
                      Originally posted by Manel88
                      Why are only those plays based on the Game Win % and not also CHI, NAS or MIN for example?
                      Well Manel88 they would be the play but im just looking at the records. For CHI 61% those plays have been 11-9. I was just saying that the records show between 50-54 plays are 8-1 so i was just saying those teams based on that.

                      I try to look at all the info i can with this, what certain ranges have been profitable and what Gold silver or bronze has been profitable and ill be more likely to play those games.
                      Comment
                      • Manel88
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 03-19-12
                        • 191

                        #46
                        Understood thanks.
                        Comment
                        • Manel88
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 03-19-12
                          • 191

                          #47
                          Originally posted by calmeat
                          Well Manel88 they would be the play but im just looking at the records. For CHI 61% those plays have been 11-9. I was just saying that the records show between 50-54 plays are 8-1 so i was just saying those teams based on that.

                          I try to look at all the info i can with this, what certain ranges have been profitable and what Gold silver or bronze has been profitable and ill be more likely to play those games.
                          For example...Calgary is a Gold play and also fits into the "50-54" plays...would you play it twice, like for 2units?

                          Another question, these plays are all for ML...do you think if we bet the same teams but in a 3way bet, would it also be profitable?
                          Comment
                          • Manel88
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 03-19-12
                            • 191

                            #48
                            In the ML you have a 57-36 record... if you sum the W and L that you have on the breakdown columns, they dont match...
                            Comment
                            • calmeat
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-04-11
                              • 1678

                              #49
                              Manel, I usually dont load up the second unit on a play like CGY. If they were 70% then i would but at 51% i wouldnt.

                              As for the record discrepency ill go back and check but yes its seems im 3 games off. I think the first day of games i ddint record the breakdown of GAME Win %. Ill look into it and thanks for the heads up.
                              Comment
                              • Manel88
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 03-19-12
                                • 191

                                #50
                                Originally posted by calmeat
                                Manel, I usually dont load up the second unit on a play like CGY. If they were 70% then i would but at 51% i wouldnt.

                                As for the record discrepency ill go back and check but yes its seems im 3 games off. I think the first day of games i ddint record the breakdown of GAME Win %. Ill look into it and thanks for the heads up.
                                You´re welcome
                                Comment
                                • calmeat
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-04-11
                                  • 1678

                                  #51
                                  ...
                                  Comment
                                  • Manel88
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-19-12
                                    • 191

                                    #52
                                    If possible, keep posting the game win % breakdown stats
                                    Comment
                                    • calmeat
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-04-11
                                      • 1678

                                      #53
                                      Error on DET game but id still go with the wings there.
                                      ...
                                      Comment
                                      • calmeat
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-04-11
                                        • 1678

                                        #54
                                        W L % $ W L %
                                        Gold 15 8 65.22% $78.5 ML 65 43 60.19%
                                        Silver 13 9 59.09% $6.5 O/U 20 18 52.63%
                                        Bronze 11 10 52.38% $0.12 REG 88 21 80.73%
                                        W L %
                                        50 11 4 73.33%
                                        55 16 16 50.00%
                                        60 13 12 52.00%
                                        65 10 6 62.50%
                                        70 15 2 88.24%
                                        Comment
                                        • calmeat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-04-11
                                          • 1678

                                          #55
                                          ...
                                          Comment
                                          • calmeat
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-04-11
                                            • 1678

                                            #56
                                            Good day yesterday got the clean sweep on games

                                            W L % $ W L %
                                            Gold 17 8 68.00% $100.5 ML 73 47 60.83%
                                            Silver 14 11 56.00% -$0.5 O/U 22 21 51.16%
                                            Bronze 12 10 54.55% $2.62 REG 100 24 80.65%
                                            W L %
                                            50 12 4 75.00%
                                            55 19 17 52.78%
                                            60 16 13 55.17%
                                            65 12 9 57.14%
                                            70 16 2 88.89%
                                            Comment
                                            • calmeat
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-04-11
                                              • 1678

                                              #57
                                              ...
                                              Comment
                                              • imarkp
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 10-05-12
                                                • 233

                                                #58
                                                nice job yest. had both games. appreciate your work. noticed on o/u, not too many green arrows? not that I bet many any way. just curious.
                                                Comment
                                                • imarkp
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 10-05-12
                                                  • 233

                                                  #59
                                                  another good night. also took pit and chi. waiting on chi. up 3-1 in 3rd. i'm starting to really like hockey.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • calmeat
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-04-11
                                                    • 1678

                                                    #60
                                                    Thanks def 2 good nights. I cleaned up the stats so im hoping that will help with better simulations. I noticed this year that Briere was showing up in Phillys active roster still (it was going by ice time) so went through each team and got rid of each player not on the right team.

                                                    Also ill be running my original system as well to try to get a consensus picks. My other system is strictly stats no other info added. It does however use the stats for the home team home stats home and away team away stats. So we will see how that goes.

                                                    Tonight consensus picks were DAL PIT MTL and CHI. And also the under in DAL/BUF game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • calmeat
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                      • 1678

                                                      #61
                                                      10-0 Past 2 nights !!(Game win %)

                                                      W L % $ W L %
                                                      Gold 17 8 68.00% $100.5 ML 78 47 62.40%
                                                      Silver 14 11 56.00% -$0.5 O/U 22 22 50.00%
                                                      Bronze 13 10 56.52% $5.12
                                                      Game Win %
                                                      W L %
                                                      50 13 4 76.47%
                                                      55 21 17 55.26%
                                                      60 18 13 58.06%
                                                      65 12 9 57.14%
                                                      70 16 2 88.89%

                                                      ...

                                                      Consensus picks are NJD and EDM (still just tracking these)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • calmeat
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                        • 1678

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by imarkp
                                                        another good night. also took pit and chi. waiting on chi. up 3-1 in 3rd. i'm starting to really like hockey.
                                                        Yeah its fun to play but can really kill you on a bad streak so make sure you manage your bankroll well!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Manel88
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 03-19-12
                                                          • 191

                                                          #63
                                                          calmeat, do you have a record like the game win % but for regulation plays instead of ML's?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • calmeat
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-04-11
                                                            • 1678

                                                            #64
                                                            ill see if i can do that for you.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • calmeat
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-04-11
                                                              • 1678

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by calmeat
                                                              ill see if i can do that for you.
                                                              this is what i got
                                                              ML reg 65 14 82.28%
                                                              So this was looking at the wins for Game Win % then breaking them down into reg or OT. So 65 in Reg and 14 went to OT
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Manel88
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 03-19-12
                                                                • 191

                                                                #66
                                                                thanks
                                                                Comment
                                                                • imarkp
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-05-12
                                                                  • 233

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by calmeat
                                                                  Yeah its fun to play but can really kill you on a bad streak so make sure you manage your bankroll well!
                                                                  agree, money management is huge, learned that years ago the hard way. stick to unit bets.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • imarkp
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 10-05-12
                                                                    • 233

                                                                    #68
                                                                    rolling right along. went with chi, stl in reg. and mtl. I had bad feel about ana so I passed ...ooops... they were down 2-0. lets enjoy while goings good.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • calmeat
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                                      • 1678

                                                                      #69
                                                                      NOt bad 5-3 tonight 15-3 past 3 days. I was worried today usually when i say something is going well it all falls apart. And usually when i post my plays they always lose that is why im just posting the sheet and each can make their own decisions on what to play. I went with CHI STL ANA EDM. Also went though my tracking sheets and found some mistakes i made on the records. there still is one error but ill try and get that fixed as well.

                                                                      Oh and the 3rd loss im saying PHX wins tonight even though its only end of 2nd. See ya tomorrow.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • calmeat
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                                        • 1678

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Cant wait to see if some goalies are confirmed gotta go to Halloween parade in a bit. so here it is.
                                                                        W L % $ W L %
                                                                        Gold 17 8 68.00% $100.5 ML 85 48 63.91%
                                                                        Silver 15 11 57.69% $4.5 O/U 23 22 51.11%
                                                                        Bronze 14 10 58.33% $7.62 ML reg 72 14 83.72%
                                                                        Game win %
                                                                        W L %
                                                                        50 14 6 70.00%
                                                                        55 22 17 56.41%
                                                                        60 20 13 60.61%
                                                                        65 14 9 60.87%
                                                                        70 16 2 88.89%
                                                                        ...
                                                                        Comment
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