CFB 2012 (also NFL)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103)

found a couple of angles that changed my mind about passing on this over

2012-13 Bowls updated card
5* Vanderbilt (4* Vandy -6.5, 1* Vandy -7 -115)
3* BYU (2* BYU -2', 1* BYU -3 -115) - WINNER
3* UCLA (2* UCLA -2' (-105), 1* UCLA -3) - LOSER
2* Utah St -10 - WINNER
2* East Carolina/Louisiana Lafayette over 64' - WINNER
2* Washington/Boise State under 46 - LOSER
2* Cincinnati/Duke over 60' (-105)
2* Bowling Green +7 (-102) - LOSER
2* TCU/Michigan State 1H under 20'
1* Nevada +10 - WINNER
1* Nevada TT over 35' - WINNER
1* Washington/Boise State 1H under 21' (+100) - LOSER
1* Central Michigan/Western Kentucky 1H under 28' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCLA TT over 41 - LOSER
1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Syracuse TT over 33'

2012-13 Bowls updated card
5* Vanderbilt (4* Vandy -6.5, 1* Vandy -7 -115)
3* BYU (2* BYU -2', 1* BYU -3 -115) - WINNER
3* UCLA (2* UCLA -2' (-105), 1* UCLA -3) - LOSER
2* Utah St -10 - WINNER
2* East Carolina/Louisiana Lafayette over 64' - WINNER
2* Washington/Boise State under 46 - LOSER
2* Cincinnati/Duke over 60' (-105) - WINNER
2* Bowling Green +7 (-102) - LOSER
2* Syracuse TT over 33'
2* TCU/Michigan State 1H under 20'
1* Nevada +10 - WINNER
1* Nevada TT over 35' - WINNER
1* Washington/Boise State 1H under 21' (+100) - LOSER
1* Central Michigan/Western Kentucky 1H under 28' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCLA TT over 41 - LOSER
1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103)

BOL to all today.

[BiffTFinancial]

so this is Saturday CFB for me

2* Syracuse TT over 33'
2* TCU/Michigan State 1H under 20'
1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103)

[BiffTFinancial]

lost 1* AF/Rice over, cash 2* Cuse TT over, 2* TCU/MSU 1H under

2012-13 Bowls updated card
5* Vanderbilt (4* Vandy -6.5, 1* Vandy -7 -115)
3* BYU (2* BYU -2', 1* BYU -3 -115) - WINNER
3* UCLA (2* UCLA -2' (-105), 1* UCLA -3) - LOSER
2* Utah St -10 - WINNER
2* East Carolina/Louisiana Lafayette over 64' - WINNER
2* Washington/Boise State under 46 - LOSER
2* Cincinnati/Duke over 60' (-105) - WINNER
2* Bowling Green +7 (-102) - LOSER
2* Syracuse TT over 33' - WINNER
2* TCU/Michigan State 1H under 20' - WINNER
1* Nevada +10 - WINNER
1* Nevada TT over 35' - WINNER
1* Washington/Boise State 1H under 21' (+100) - LOSER
1* Central Michigan/Western Kentucky 1H under 28' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCLA TT over 41 - LOSER
1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103) - LOSER

8-7 +3.38u thus far

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Iowa State -1'
2* LSU -6

2012-13 Bowls updated card
5* Vanderbilt (4* Vandy -6.5, 1* Vandy -7 -115)
3* BYU (2* BYU -2', 1* BYU -3 -115) - WINNER
3* UCLA (2* UCLA -2' (-105), 1* UCLA -3) - LOSER
2* Utah St -10 - WINNER
2* East Carolina/Louisiana Lafayette over 64' - WINNER
2* Washington/Boise State under 46 - LOSER
2* Cincinnati/Duke over 60' (-105) - WINNER
2* Bowling Green +7 (-102) - LOSER
2* Syracuse TT over 33' - WINNER
2* TCU/Michigan State 1H under 20' - WINNER
2* Iowa State -1'
2* LSU -6
1* Nevada +10 - WINNER
1* Nevada TT over 35' - WINNER
1* Washington/Boise State 1H under 21' (+100) - LOSER
1* Central Michigan/Western Kentucky 1H under 28' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCLA TT over 41 - LOSER
1* Air Force/Rice over 62' (-103) - LOSER

[Smutbucket]

eeesh Iowa state

my bro just nearly had me convinced to take tulsa, hes got it locked in at 34 confidence points with only bama and georgia ahead of em....

gonna probably put a unit on tulsa gonna look into numbers more tmrw night, working on NFL now, but dont like going head to head with you on all these picks....

teaser advice: georgia and bama....love it

[BiffTFinancial]

eeesh Iowa state

my bro just nearly had me convinced to take tulsa, hes got it locked in at 34 confidence points with only bama and georgia ahead of em....

gonna probably put a unit on tulsa gonna look into numbers more tmrw night, working on NFL now, but dont like going head to head with you on all these picks....

teaser advice: georgia and bama....love it

i'd be interested to hear a case on Tulsa. i like ISU pretty well here, something like 29-21. sure, Tulsa's stats look better, but it's because their schedule was weak. in fact, this is one of biggest schedule mismatches in bowls. ISU pretty well handled Tulsa in September. Tulsa hung 16 quick points late in the 1Q, partly as result of safety. ISU has solid defense and offensive line and i think that the extra prep time against an opponent they've already seen should help their average offense (Richardson looked great at QB at end of season). ISU should travel better than Tulsa and has much better special teams.

what are you thinking on NFL? getting ready to hit the hay for the night. like Saints, Bears (together in ML parlay pays +140), Rams/Seahawks over, Saints/Panthers over.

will definitely look at that teaser - thanks! i like Bama to win by about 10, UGA by about 4.

[BiffTFinancial]

final projected scores for bowls (for pool purposes)
Nevada (+10) vs Arizona (75) - Wildcats, 50-44 (NC)
Toledo (+10) vs Utah State (58) - Aggies, 38-21
BYU (-2’) vs San Diego State (48’) - Cougars, 27-17
Ball State (+7’) vs Central Florida (61’) - Knights, 39-34 (NC)
East Carolina (+6) vs Louisiana Lafayette (64’) - Ragin' Cajuns, 41-31
Washington (+5) vs Boise State (46) - Broncos, 20-17 (NC)
SMU (+12) vs Fresno State (59’) - Bulldogs, 40-31 (NC)
Central Michigan (+5) vs Western Kentucky (59) - Hilltoppers, 28-24 (NC)
Bowling Green (+7’) vs San Jose State (47) - Falcons, 23-22 (U)
Cincinnati (-7’) vs Duke (59) - Bearcats, 37-33 (NC)
Baylor (pk) vs UCLA (79) - Bruins, 54-48
Ohio U (+7’) vs Louisiana Monroe (60) - Warhawks, 40-36 (NC)
Rutgers (+2’) vs Virginia Tech (41’) - Hokies, 24-16
Minnesota (+12’) vs Texas Tech (57) - Red Raiders, 30-24 (NC)
Air Force (-1) vs Rice (61’) - Owls, 33-32 (U)
Navy (+14’) vs Arizona State (56) – Sun Devils, 31-21 (NC)
West Virginia (-4) vs Syracuse (73’) - Neers, 44-43 (NC)
Oregon State (+2) vs Texas - (57) - Longhorns, 36-33 (U)
TCU (+2’) vs Michigan State (41) - Sparty, 17-16 (U)
North Carolina State (+6’) vs Vanderbilt (52) - Commodores, 34-16
Georgia Tech (+10) vs USC (64) - Trojans, 38-24
Iowa State (-1) vs Tulsa (52) - Cyclones, 29-21
Clemson (+4) vs LSU (58’) - Bayou Bengals, 33-21
Purdue (+16’) vs Oklahoma State (70) - Pokes, 48-31
Northwestern (+2’) vs Mississippi State (51’) - Mildcats, 26-20 (U)
Michigan (+5’) vs South Carolina (48) - Cocks, 21-20 (NC)
Nebraska (+10) vs Georgia (60) - Dawgs, 28-24 (NC)
Wisconsin (+6’) vs Stanford (47’) - Cardinal, 21-17 (NC)
Northern Illinois (+12’) vs Florida State (58’) - Noles, 41-24
Louisville (+13) vs Florida (45’) - Gators, 28-10
Kansas State (+9’) vs Oregon (75’) - Ducks, 37-34 (NC)
Texas A&M (-4’) vs Oklahoma (71’) - Aggies, 43-37
Pittsburgh (+3’) vs Ole Miss (52) - Rebels, 28-17
Arkansas State (-4’) vs Kent State (61) - Golden Flashes, 31-28 (U)
Alabama (-9’) vs Notre Dame (42) - Roll Tide, 24-14

nailed that Sparty game on the nose, woot!

at roughly the mid-point of the Bowls (19 down, 16 to go), these projected scores were 13-6 SU, 14-5 ATS, 8-11 OU. i'm sure that will not continue. also, great judgment turning 14-5 ATS into only 3.38u. onward and upward.

[2daBank]

nailed that Sparty game on the nose, woot!

at roughly the mid-point of the Bowls (19 down, 16 to go), these projected scores were 13-6 SU, 14-5 ATS, 8-11 OU. i'm sure that will not continue. also, great judgment turning 14-5 ATS into only 3.38u. onward and upward.

shit nice job brother,,,and then you make me feel good when i read yo turned that into 3.38u, not good that that all you got out of it, just cause ya know ive been there,,lol...

that little 1st half under re-pop 2nd half if it goes over has done pretty damn well, i skipped a few gms either cause i didnt like or just a time thing and 1 or 2 i waited till half which turned out right or just passed on 2nd ...but i think there only been 2 maybe 3 that both halves went over, might be little off cause i didnt play them all, skipped the tex/osu total (only to play beavers, blah), and didnt play the navy/asu gm, figured it might level out with more gms on tap,,think there was only one gm where i took the double burn (cincy/puke, and i knew i should just have laid off that one at half)...im gonna go back and look just to see if blindly followed how it ended up but def something i will keep in my bag of tricks for the future with few filters..like i said the way i read it once we got to the 5 gms a day part right before new yr and into jan i think it time to be more selective but found interesting and i def turned a profit with it..

[BiffTFinancial]

shit nice job brother,,,and then you make me feel good when i read yo turned that into 3.38u, not good that that all you got out of it, just cause ya know ive been there,,lol...

that little 1st half under re-pop 2nd half if it goes over has done pretty damn well, i skipped a few gms either cause i didnt like or just a time thing and 1 or 2 i waited till half which turned out right or just passed on 2nd ...but i think there only been 2 maybe 3 that both halves went over, might be little off cause i didnt play them all, skipped the tex/osu total (only to play beavers, blah), and didnt play the navy/asu gm, figured it might level out with more gms on tap,,think there was only one gm where i took the double burn (cincy/puke, and i knew i should just have laid off that one at half)...im gonna go back and look just to see if blindly followed how it ended up but def something i will keep in my bag of tricks for the future with few filters..like i said the way i read it once we got to the 5 gms a day part right before new yr and into jan i think it time to be more selective but found interesting and i def turned a profit with it..

i've always known that my judgment is shaky and needs to improve. that's the softer, qualitative analysis (can't bet every game). i've worked for several years to put together models for different sports (and even different times of season for respective sport - e.g., bowls, ncaa conf tourneys, ncaa tourney). i made CFB model a big focus this year, and even if the results haven't been outstanding unit-wise (up about 15.5u on season), that's my judgment, not the model. and if the quantitative piece from the model sucks, judgment becomes far less relevant. short-story-long (at this point), i put a lot of penetrating work into this thing and it's good to see it perform well.

also, i'm in six bowl pools (two with pretty big entry fees), and these projections are what i used for my entries. so, i may turn a bigger buck than my unit-count. also, i'm not big on self-congratulation, but i was pretty happy that i nailed the Sparty result and this seemed like a good time to assess the projections. i'm sure they'll go straight into the latrine from here.

speaking of pools, i will be bugging you today for my NFL pool entry. today is final day and i have one-point lead, so need to see ball hit ball well today.

[BiffTFinancial]

shit nice job brother,,,and then you make me feel good when i read yo turned that into 3.38u, not good that that all you got out of it, just cause ya know ive been there,,lol...

that little 1st half under re-pop 2nd half if it goes over has done pretty damn well, i skipped a few gms either cause i didnt like or just a time thing and 1 or 2 i waited till half which turned out right or just passed on 2nd ...but i think there only been 2 maybe 3 that both halves went over, might be little off cause i didnt play them all, skipped the tex/osu total (only to play beavers, blah), and didnt play the navy/asu gm, figured it might level out with more gms on tap,,think there was only one gm where i took the double burn (cincy/puke, and i knew i should just have laid off that one at half)...im gonna go back and look just to see if blindly followed how it ended up but def something i will keep in my bag of tricks for the future with few filters..like i said the way i read it once we got to the 5 gms a day part right before new yr and into jan i think it time to be more selective but found interesting and i def turned a profit with it..

i love the 1H under angle and i think that we should discuss how to refine a bit for next year. in my mind, ECU/ULL and Cincy/Duke were simply two games on my list from beginning of bowls where knew i wouldn't have wanted any part of any under (Nevada/AZ, Purdue/Okie State, Baylor/UCLA, WVU/Cuse, A&M/Oklahoma being others). simply by adding a filter involving defenses' opposition TDs/play or points/play, you might weed out the teams that can't tackle (Nevada, AZ, ECU, ULL, Duke all bad in those stats). definitively a subject for further attention. i will pull together some thoughts and shoot you a pm.

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Seventeen
2* Colts team total over 20' (+100)
2* Panthers/Saints over 54 (-103)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Bengals -3

NFL Week Seventeen
2* Colts TT over 20' (+100)
2* Panthers/Saints over 54 (-103)
2* Bengals -3

may add one more later. BOL to all today.

[Madison]

Right now "I think I hear my mother calling" and taking my 15.1 units reg season into the playoffs. I just can't find conviction in anything today.

GL to all!

[Madison]

Thoughts on reports Shurmur going down? I thought they looked to be improving and didn't think coaching was the issue???

[Smutbucket]

once I look into tulsa and decide If Im gonna take them later tonight Ill throw in what I think......

lol madison, I agree, Im up about 7 units on NFL on season and scared I just want to end + units on season! I dont want to make a bet! ha, no I just woke up Im working on something, maybe just a couple 1 unit bets for me......just started digging.....leaning bills, saints, houston, but would like to get at MLs instead of these 4-5-7 pts....

[BiffTFinancial]

Right now "I think I hear my mother calling" and taking my 15.1 units reg season into the playoffs. I just can't find conviction in anything today.

GL to all!

can't blame you at all. i'm down about 2.3u on the season. my goal for the day was finding three picks that i really liked. let's see how it goes....

Thoughts on reports Shurmur going down? I thought they looked to be improving and didn't think coaching was the issue???

Browns improved a bit, but that was as much improved talent (finally) as Shurmur. Shurmus is considered kind of a stooge, and long-term, the west coast offense isn't ideal on the edge of Lake Erie (esp not with that stooge calling the plays). the guy that i'm disappointed to lose is Heckert given that he assembled some decent talent. for some reason, Banner apparently hated Heckert from something to do with their Eagle days. wouldn't surprise me if this whole thing is over a piece of trim from the 90s, frankly. bottom-line: Trent Richardson made everyone in the Browns organization look good this year.

[BiffTFinancial]

once I look into tulsa and decide If Im gonna take them later tonight Ill throw in what I think......

lol madison, I agree, Im up about 7 units on NFL on season and scared I just want to end + units on season! I dont want to make a bet! ha, no I just woke up Im working on something, maybe just a couple 1 unit bets for me......just started digging.....leaning bills, saints, houston, but would like to get at MLs instead of these 4-5-7 pts....

please do on Tulsa - always interested in other viewpoints. one other thing that i failed to mention, i watched pretty much all of their CUSA championship game against UCF because i was on Tulsa there. Tulsa won and i was pleased but as i watched i thought a few times that they would be overmatched athletically in a BCS conference. that said, they're playing Iowa State, not Bama. anyway, take a look and feel free to chime in with your thoughts even where (especially where?) they differ from mine.

it did occur to me that teaser/ML parlays might be the safest route today.

[Madison]

Boy Hou looks like a team tanking.

[Madison]

You beat NE through the air. Ain't happening today wiith Fins in cold and 20 mph. Thinkin NE and under. Like it better if Colts can hold on.

[Madison]

Indy D giving it up. Looks like NE Mia under if this holds.

[Madison]

So much for the Hou ML. NE line going through the roof and givin the weather in NE I don't disagree.

[BiffTFinancial]

Indy D giving it up. Looks like NE Mia under if this holds.

did you play anything there?

[BiffTFinancial]

Don't plan on siring any more kids, but will strongly consider naming my next dog/pet/best friend Carlos Dunlap.

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Seventeen final card
2* Colts TT over 20' (+100) - WINNER
2* Panthers/Saints over 54 (-103) - WINNER
2* Bengals -3 - WINNER

3-0 +6u

61-54 +3.7u NFL regular season

accomplished my purpose today, woot.

[Madison]

did you play anything there?

Yeah pssd me off. Cashed for 3U NE and Under. Tried for 9U and they shut the windows down. Psssd!!

[Dexter]

its vandy time (im at 5x myself)

[No coincidences]

i'd be interested to hear a case on Tulsa. i like ISU pretty well here, something like 29-21. sure, Tulsa's stats look better, but it's because their schedule was weak. in fact, this is one of biggest schedule mismatches in bowls. ISU pretty well handled Tulsa in September. Tulsa hung 16 quick points late in the 1Q, partly as result of safety. ISU has solid defense and offensive line and i think that the extra prep time against an opponent they've already seen should help their average offense (Richardson looked great at QB at end of season). ISU should travel better than Tulsa and has much better special teams.

what are you thinking on NFL? getting ready to hit the hay for the night. like Saints, Bears (together in ML parlay pays +140), Rams/Seahawks over, Saints/Panthers over.

will definitely look at that teaser - thanks! i like Bama to win by about 10, UGA by about 4.

Only thing I'm worried about with Iowa State is the absence of RB Shontrelle Johnson, who is injured and won't play. They still have White and Woody, but Johnson really gave Tulsa fits the first time around. That, and Knott is still out, which weakens their D.

Richardson looked good against two horrific defenses (Kansas and West Virginia). Tulsa is no Alabama, but they could give him some problems. I'm a little perplexed by the line given Iowa State won by 15 to start the year against the Golden Hurricane, but with the injury issues, I guess it makes sense -- sort of.

[BiffTFinancial]

Yeah pssd me off. Cashed for 3U NE and Under. Tried for 9U and they shut the windows down. Psssd!!

cash for 3u and pissed. and i thought you were sitting yesterday out....

haha, glad you cashed the play that they let you make though.

[BiffTFinancial]

its vandy time (im at 5x myself)

goddamn right. randy for Vandy today.

[BiffTFinancial]

Only thing I'm worried about with Iowa State is the absence of RB Shontrelle Johnson, who is injured and won't play. They still have White and Woody, but Johnson really gave Tulsa fits the first time around. That, and Knott is still out, which weakens their D.

Richardson looked good against two horrific defenses (Kansas and West Virginia). Tulsa is no Alabama, but they could give him some problems. I'm a little perplexed by the line given Iowa State won by 15 to start the year against the Golden Hurricane, but with the injury issues, I guess it makes sense -- sort of.

excellent thoughts, NC, thank you for sharing them. i knew about Johnson and Knott, so glad that i wasn't missing any key info. not as worried about Johnson because of White and Woody, and i don't think that Johnson was a world-beater (and White played plenty in the passing game, and pass blocking is often a key aspect overlooked in RB absences). you are right that Johnson tore Tulsa up in first meeting, but i think that White and Woody can do same damage (White was solid that game, Johnson just got more carries and did very well with them). as for Jake Knott, he is tough, but they were without him last three games and time off should give them chance to make adjustments defensively (an area where i am confident in Rhoads as a coach).

like Richardson a lot, though your point about lackluster defensive opposition is well-taken. i'm not bothered by line at all. lines are based much more upon power ratings and such than the prior meeting (bearing in mind that you would adjust that 6-8 points alone just on ISU being +1 TOs in that game). also, don't forget the all-important bullshit capping angle of revenge. yes, i'm sure that Golden Hurricane players have been champing at the bit to get another shot at the Cyclones all season. [or, as the less educated like Drew Brees say, "chomping at the bit"; that's okay, i still believe that Purdue is a very good school, but apparently just not OSU calibre heh heh]

[BiffTFinancial]

New Years Eve (plays all previously posted, but to make things clear)
5* Vanderbilt (4* Vandy -6.5, 1* Vandy -7 -115)
2* Iowa State -1'
2* LSU -6

BOL to all today.

[WarEagle43]

I'm on these as well. Let's cash em! BOL Happy new year!

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm on these as well. Let's cash em! BOL Happy new year!

knock em dead out on the Plains, WarEagle!

[Madison]

cash for 3u and pissed. and i thought you were sitting yesterday out....

haha, glad you cashed the play that they let you make though.

Yeah made the 3U play when I first posted to avoid something stupid happening. When I went back for more under and parlay no lines 10-15 minutes before ko. Books must have been getting pounded.

As far as not playing rule #1 for me is "let the plays come to you, don't force/over handicap". Play came to me mid-afternoon. This is especially beneficial in volume sports like BB and baseball. Applying this in baseball the last 2 years has worked wonders for me. You know me by now. I'm the anti-volume guy.