LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Prize Marlin]

Thank you LTA

[Love The Action]

Interesting total number for the FSU/BC game....

[No coincidences]

Great call LTA thought under was lookin good with the late movement

They wanted you to believe that YB.

Here's how the total moved early at BetOnline though:

10/31 01:16 PM46½ -11046½ -110
10/30 05:18 PM45½ -11045½ -110
10/30 05:17 PM44½ -11044½ -110
10/30 03:17 PM44 -11044 -110

[No coincidences]

Thanks...but did you see the late move to the over. Right before kick, Pinny shot back up to 46.5.

Regardless, this over was fairly obvious based on the opening number of 47. The key totals numbers of 44 and 45 are pretty big for unders, so by opening this game -- one between one of the best defensive teams that has played to 7 straight unders -- over those key numbers of 44 and 45, the books were giving you their lean.

As I stated in my writeup, I had this one capped at 48, but one of my main reasons for this play was line interpretation based on how books set totals in general and that interplay with key totals numbers.

What are you liking for tomorrow. I have a possible big play in mind if I can get the right number. Shot up almost 3 points after that.

GL

It was actually 44.

[Love The Action]

It was actually 44.

No. I have not checked SI for this, but according to sbr odds, only bookmaker opened below 46 and that open was at 44.5, not 44, and was immediately bought up to the 47 range within 15 minutes of posting that number. Otherwise, pinny opened at 47.5 & 5dimes opened at 46.

What book of any consequence did you see a 44 open? Even the book you reference above, betonline, opened at 45.5 and took immedite action on the over.

[No coincidences]

No. I have not checked SI for this, but according to sbr odds, only bookmaker opened below 46 and that open was at 44.5, not 44, and was immediately bought up to the 47 range within 15 minutes of posting that number. Otherwise, pinny opened at 47.5 & 5dimes opened at 46.

What book of any consequence did you see a 44 open?

BetOnline.

[No coincidences]

No. I have not checked SI for this, but according to sbr odds, only bookmaker opened below 46 and that open was at 44.5, not 44, and was immediately bought up to the 47 range within 15 minutes of posting that number. Otherwise, pinny opened at 47.5 & 5dimes opened at 46.

What book of any consequence did you see a 44 open?

Wouldn't it support your over play more than Bookmaker opened at 44.5 and it went to 47 right away? I'm agreeing with you; just telling you that BOL had a 44 and, like BM, it immediately got moved up.

[Love The Action]

BetOnline.

I see a 45.5 open, with immediate action on the over. Betonline did not open at 44 according to sbr odds. I can't check SI from my phone right now, but I think you are wrong. Where are you getting this 44 open?

[Love The Action]

Wouldn't it support your over play more than Bookmaker opened at 44.5 and it went to 47 right away? I'm agreeing with you; just telling you that BOL had a 44 and, like BM, it immediately got moved up.

Yes. That is what I stated in my writeup. All books either opened in the 47 range like pinny, or opened lower with immediate over action. You simply started that the opener was "actually 44" but I dont see that anywhere.

No biggie, just want to be accurate and wondering where you saw 44.

What is on tap for you tonight?

[No coincidences]

I see a 45.5 open, with immediate action on the over. Betonline did not open at 44 according to sbr odds. I can't check SI from my phone right now, but I think you are wrong. Where are you getting this 44 open?

According to SBRodds (I can at least verify the 44.5, as I saw it with my BOL account. Didn't see the 44, but I'm trusting what they have posted):

10/31 01:16 PM46½ -11046½ -110
10/30 05:18 PM45½ -11045½ -110
10/30 05:17 PM44½ -11044½ -110
10/30 03:17 PM44 -11044 -110

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play we might add to our stake on as the week progresses. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #7

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

Writeups later. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

I find this interesting with the UCF/Tulsa total at BOL:

10/31 03:40 PM48½ -11048½ -110
10/31 03:39 PM49 -11049 -110
10/30 03:17 PM51 -11051 -110

[riffraff24]

Tulsa is back to +2 today.

[upscope]

Heating UP Bro~


Time to step it UP a unit me think??

[M.W.]

I see a 45.5 open, with immediate action on the over. Betonline did not open at 44 according to sbr odds. I can't check SI from my phone right now, but I think you are wrong. Where are you getting this 44 open?

SBR Odds doesn't necessarily catch the first number at Bookmaker. Often they take the number from maybe 5 minutes after open.

[M.W.]

Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston.

And that's probably exactly what Houston's thinking, especially after beating Marshall 63-28 two weeks ago. Houston's probably going to take this game for granted, and UAB's covered five of its last six, with the only non-cover coming the week after the big upset over UCF. I would think twice about playing UH here.

[suicidekings]

I gotta run to work, but will respond tonight when I have more time for discussion. I could see where my post could have been confusing. I will try to clarify for later tonight after wotrk.

However, in short, public perception was favoring the under because of Temple's under streak, overall defense and rushing offense. However, if the books were worried about the under, they would have opened in that 44 or 45 key total range because of the high percentage of final scores therein. By opening above those two numbers they had exposure on the under that obviously did not worry them despite public perception heavy on the under. I believe my data also suggests a slight advantage to the under (under 1%) in terms of o/u results over the last 2,000 games set at 44 or 45. Perhaps MBP or someone else can confirm based on their ability to formulate reliable search queries.

GL SK...what's your play for tonight?

The reason I ask is because I have an NCAAF push chart for spreads and totals (1990-2006, Stanford Wong's method, via Ganchrow) and while 45 is a key number for totals, the distribution shows relative maxima for pushes at 37, 41, 45, a saddle at 47/48/49, 51, 55, and 59, while the overall distribution of outcomes regardless of spread/total forms a smooth bell curve that peaks around 49. When I test the significance of the data, the graph clearly shows the highest peaks (in order of significance): 51, 45, 59, 41, and then it tails off quite a bit.

Admittedly, I don't really look at this stuff very often... I had this line set at 44.5, so essentially right on the key number. I'm not sure this is the best example to draw conclusions from as Coyer's presence in the game definitely had a lot to do with the total being pushed over so easily and he was not expected to see that much action. Without that influence, I feel like we both would have been sweating this one out until the end.

On that note, I actually watched a Coyer HS promo video yesterday before the game (youtube is great) and almost posted it here but decided that he likely wouldn't see much action. I regretted that as soon as the announcers were talking about him seeing action before the game. The video showed exactly what we saw last night. Lots of running and the sideline tosses, plus a few quick slants up the middle. He's actually extremely well suited to fit into how that Temple team is built. If they develop the option a little more, they're going to be hard to stop.

[Love The Action]

May add a taste to Tulsa ML at +115....

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play we might add to our stake on as the week progresses. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #7

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

Writeups later. Good luck.

Play #8

Missouri/Baylor over (73) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Kansas State/OSU over (69) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work....locked these in earlier. Writeups to come. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Action just about split in the Tulsa game...

[suicidekings]

May add a taste to Tulsa ML at +115....

I'm making a bad habit of playing the opposite side as you... UCF has been a tough luck team this year for sure, but Tulsa has seen nothing but scrubs since Boise. Only a small play on the UCF ML, as it seems like the most interesting game of the night.

[alamo]

Tag on another for that pick LTA

[riffraff24]

Hey LTA what do you think about this teaser for tomorrow? +100

1. 11/4/2011 8:00 PM College Football 312 Kent State* +4½ vs Central Michigan
2. 11/4/2011 8:00 PM College Football 311 Central Michigan/Kent State* Under 48½

[Love The Action]

Tag on another for that pick LTA

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA what do you think about this teaser for tomorrow? +100

1. 11/4/2011 8:00 PM College Football 312 Kent State* +4½ vs Central Michigan
2. 11/4/2011 8:00 PM College Football 311 Central Michigan/Kent State* Under 48½

Wow, you get two team 6 point teasers at +100? Most books charge -120, or at least -110. I feel lucky to get -110 at my square book, because my sharper book charges -120. Anyway, those are good odds.

I like it. It's hard to argue with that teaser as I am already playing the under at 43 and I am very tempted to play Kent State at -1. Consequently, I love the correlation between Kent St. and the under which makes this is a solid teaser from that standpoint. The only drawback is that you are taking a small fave and turning it into a small dog thereby crossing 0 in your tease. Generally, that is frowned upon under standard "teaser rules" because you are not crossing enough key numbers to make the tease worthwhile. With that said, I do like Kent State and the under, so.....good luck!

[Redscot]

Another one bites the dust. Let's put our foot on their throat and keep it there . Great job my man, hard work pays off .

[Love The Action]

Another one bites the dust. Let's put our foot on their throat and keep it there . Great job my man, hard work pays off .

So what are you thinking about the "game of the century?"

I do actually expect a good game. I am shocked, however, by how much action LSU has received. I don't know about you, but I'm praying this line hits -4 so I can lock up the Tide. Although LSU is a great team, Bama has a true home field advantage -3 to add in, plus they are the clear cut better team according to the stats. Qualitative factors are about even, so other than casual bettors who are "just taking the points" in a game they view as a coinflip, I don't see why there is so much LSU love. It's Roll Tide for me...either -4 (-110) or I will buy the hook. If I can't get -4, maybe a pass because I think the total is pretty accurate at 42. Perhaps a small over lean if anything....

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play we might add to our stake on as the week progresses. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #7

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

Writeups later. Good luck.

Play #8

Missouri/Baylor over (73) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Kansas State/OSU over (69) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come. Good luck.

Play #10

Correlated Teaser

Kent State (+5)/under (48.5) 1.1x to win 1x

I am going to make this an official play for a full 1x. I am already on the under at 43 and I have Kent State set at -3. I am still contemplating a play on Kent State at -1. That would really have me "loaded up" on this game and I'm not sure I want to go there yet. Still, as I stated in my writeup on my under play, there is a strong correlation between Kent State and the under. Plus, most bets are coming in on CMU and over, so we have a nice public fade here as well. I love it when the stats. My model and my capping come in on the other side of where the majority of action lies (aka the "public" but I hate those terms). Anyway, I'm off to work and don't have time for an in-depth writeup, but even though we are violating certain teaser rules by crossing zero and teasing a total, we are also covering Kent State on the key numbers of 3, 1, and 4 and getting a push on 5. Plus, we push the total up to cover the key numbers of 44, 45, 47 & 48. I think a tease in this situation is warranted when there is such a strong correlation between a team winning and the total. Consequently, I am rolling with the correlated teaser with Kent State and the under for 1x. I may still play Kent State at -1. Good luck.

[Pin Fish]

So what are you thinking about the "game of the century?"

I do actually expect a good game. I am shocked, however, by how much action LSU has received. I don't know about you, but I'm praying this line hits -4 so I can lock up the Tide. Although LSU is a great team, Bama has a true home field advantage +3 to add in, plus they are the clear cut better team according to the stats. Qualitative factors are about even, so other than casual bettors who are "just taking the points" in a game they view as a coinflip, I don't see why there is so much LSU love. It's Roll Tide for me...either -4 (-110) or I will buy the hook. If I can't get -4, maybe a pass because I think the total is pretty accurate at 42. Perhaps a small over lean if anything....

Very tough game to cap...one thing that stands out is the LSU secondary.......I fel McCarron has never faced a secondary of this quality in his 8 starts....if LSU can control Richardson and force Vama to go to the air it is game over .....Lee and Jefferson have seen it all in their carrers and give the clear edge at the QB position...........personalliy I lean LSU may play defintely will watch as there are much easier plays on the bioard...GL TOMORROW..........

[Trivial]

Wow, you get two team 6 point teasers at +100? Most books charge -120, or at least -110. I feel lucky to get -110 at my square book, because my sharper book charges -120. Anyway, those are good odds.

When I look at this at Pinny, I would get +105 for this play right now with Kent +5 and under 48.5. I believe they treat same game teasers better than muti-game.

[Prize Marlin]

LTA, what are your thoughts on the USC game?? I feel the -21 is a trap. If USC plays like they did against Stanford and Notre Dame they should put up 60 on Colorado. I need your knowledge on this because I am confused.

[Time2Score]

4 TEAM SWEETHEART TEASERS
[312] KENT +12-105 (B+13)
[312] KENT u55½-105 (B+13)
[313] USC -8½-105 (B+13)
[394] HAWAII +9½-105 (B+13)

Opinions on this teaser? Already locked it in, but debating about throwing another teaser in with the top 3 as a 10pt teaser.

[Love The Action]

LTA, what are your thoughts on the USC game?? I feel the -21 is a trap. If USC plays like they did against Stanford and Notre Dame they should put up 60 on Colorado. I need your knowledge on this because I am confused.

Sometimes, the best play is no play and I am passing on this game all around.

I have a tiny lean to the over, especially at the opener of 57. My model has -22 and 59 for this game so I view vegas' line as very accurate in this game. However, the qualitative situational factors make this a pass for me. As you mention, usc could come out explosive or lay an egg because this is a classic letdown spot after two tough and highly hyped matchups against nd and stanford. With the line being so sharp and little to no value, and this being a bad spot for usc, I am passing. I dont think you are confused, I think you are recognizing a very sharp line but maybe dont know it.

We have a nice edge in the kent state game, so I'm sticking to that game. Good luck.

[jonathon1995]

Nov 04CFB [312] KENT STATE +12-110 (B+13)
Nov 04CFB [312] TOTAL u55½-110 (B+13) (CENTRAL MICHIGAN vrs KENT STATE)
Nov 04CFB [313] USC -8½-110 (B+13)

Risking 70.00 USD To Win 50.00 USD

The 4th pic is open, I will probably use it on OKSU Saturday.

[Love The Action]

4 TEAM SWEETHEART TEASERS
[312] KENT +12-105 (B+13)
[312] KENT u55½-105 (B+13)
[313] USC -8½-105 (B+13)
[394] HAWAII +9½-105 (B+13)

Opinions on this teaser? Already locked it in, but debating about throwing another teaser in with the top 3 as a 10pt teaser.

I would need to know the odds to properly evaluate that play. Plus, other than a fun action wager, I personally would never play those type of teasers. In football, i stick to single game bets, primarily with some rare wong eligible teasers and correlated teasers thrown in. Plus, I generally like to tease dogs up rather than faves down. With that said, I think your biggest risk in that play is usc. Good luck