LTA's NCAAF Plays

[YOUNGBUCK]

Worried LTA more and more I looked at this less confident I was

[Love The Action]

I can't take it guys. Should have had an easy cash in the BG/Kent State under. Instead, the BG quarterback fumbles with less than one minute left and Kent State takes it back for a TD. It's like this shit happens all the time, but I never get the benefit of these types of breaks. I don't know what to do anymore.

[upscope]

You're fuckin' kiddin me right?? This sh#t is beyond unbelievable!!!

[upscope]

0:20 KEST TD Matt Schilz fumbled. Roosevelt Nix recovered fumble and returned for 9 yards (Freddy Cortez made PAT)

[Love The Action]

0:20 KEST TD Matt Schilz fumbled. Roosevelt Nix recovered fumble and returned for 9 yards (Freddy Cortez made PAT)

That one really hurt Up. I don't know what to say. I work my ass off on this shit and literally get no breaks...instead, it's like things go the opposite to just beat plays by a few points. This game, the NIU/Buf over last week that didn't cash because of missed extra point on the last play, the OU/Kansas over, etc. I could go on and on with all the bad beats we have suffered these last three or four weeks. The math says we have to start getting some of these breaks, but it's like it never happens. I'm at a loss right now. Very frustrating.

[Redscot]

I can't take it guys. Should have had an easy cash in the BG/Kent State under. Instead, the BG quarterback fumbles with less than one minute left and Kent State takes it back for a TD. It's like this shit happens all the time, but I never get the benefit of these types of breaks. I don't know what to do anymore.

26 pt.s in the 4th quarter and a meaningless TD on a turnover in the waning seconds of the game. Are you f ucking kidding me?!?!? Brutal LTA, just brutal man. This is like the month long stretch we hit in baseball, where they couldn't invent a new way to blow our play. Fortunately the day is young my man, lots of card left.......as long as we finish in the black it is a good day.

[Dexter]

baylor has ruined this over....twice inside the 5 they turn the ball over.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[upscope]

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Well, since I've lost 9 out of my last 10 & 22 out 27 I think I've had enough. I'm gonna sit this one out. That should mean automatic win for you guys. If I were you guys I would double, tripe even quadruple UP here since I'm not tailing.
100% guaranteed win now.
GL

[upscope]

Had no idea OSU had the best defense in the country. They've given UP 34, 14, 33, 29, 28 26, & 24 so far this yr. So it makes perfect sense that they have shut out a team for an entire half that has so far scored 50, 48, 56, 35, 49 & 28??

[upscope]

56 PFS,19 first downs & 225 total yrds in the 1st half for Baylor & they've managed a grand total of ZERO points!!

[Trivial]

Well, since I've lost 9 out of my last 10 & 22 out 27 I think I've had enough. I'm gonna sit this one out. That should mean automatic win for you guys. If I were you guys I would double, tripe even quadruple UP here since I'm not tailing.
100% guaranteed win now.
GL

Lol. I got this one in during the first drive. My sportsbook let me in on it which they usually don't but I think I lost enough lately that they said sure.

Looking at the score - who knows. Not watching any games today. It is a daddy daughter day.

LTA. : sorry for jinxing your Kent State. F*ck indeed.

[Trivial]

Had no idea OSU had the best defense in the country. They've given UP 34, 14, 33, 29, 28 26, & 24 so far this yr. So it makes perfect sense that they have shut out a team for an entire half that has so far scored 50, 48, 56, 35, 49 & 28??

This is far from over. Remember Houston earlier this week?

[Redscot]

Lol. I got this one in during the first drive. My sportsbook let me in on it which they usually don't but I think I lost enough lately that they said sure.

Looking at the score - who knows. Not watching any games today. It is a daddy daughter day.

LTA. : sorry for jinxing your Kent State. F*ck indeed.

now that's a +ev play.

[Donnie Brasco]

Wow, kstate is done. Oh well, on to the night games. I am on wisky -7.52x, usc 1x +7.5, gatech +4, azst-31, texas -28. Good luck boys! Also wanted to say if u guys can get lsu +4 or better, grab it. I have them winning straight up next week!

[Trivial]

now that's a +ev play.

Indeed my friend.

[Redscot]

Indeed my friend.

, she wearing you down in the late rounds champ?

[Trivial]

, she wearing you down in the late rounds champ?

Lol. I clicked instead of on my iPhone. It has really been an awesome day. These days are why I need to win more money at wagering. All these activities are costly.

[Redscot]

Lol. I clicked instead of on my iPhone. It has really been an awesome day. These days are why I need to win more money at wagering. All these activities are costly.

Yeah, you left me trying to put the in context . I hear you man, nothing comes close, nothing.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

LTA must be deep in the lab, hasn't peeked out in a while....come out and get some sunshine bro .

Hanging around to see what may be on tap for this evening....then it's time to watch UFC with the last son I have living at home.

[Trivial]

Yeah, you left me trying to put the in context . I hear you man, nothing comes close, nothing.

Amen to that brother.

[Trivial]

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

With you LTA to the end. I did not buy down the baylor total. Got it at 82. Whew.

[Redscot]

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Damn! Missed out on these 2. Keep'em coming brother

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

[Trivial]

With you LTA to the end. I did not buy down the baylor total. Got it at 82. Whew.

Wow.. This is a lesson for me. Don't trust your sportsbook. I should really check more often.

Today, I had $0.00 in all my accounts. So I funded one of them.

To my surprise, I had less than I should. After looking at the transactions, they graded my Baylor wager as a LOSS, when 83 is over 82.

I am calling it in now to fix it, but I think you need to check every wager grading. This is a very reputable sportsbook mentioned several times a minute in SBR.

[Love The Action]

Damn! Missed out on these 2. Keep'em coming brother

With the way my day is going so far, as well as the last three weeks of NCAAF, that's probably a good thing. Still working though...I never give up. I fully believe the breaks will start falling our way...it's just about when? I need them tonight for the rest of these plays. Might add 1x to the Nevada and AZ totals....we'll see. Probably a few more plays as well. Good luck Red...

[Love The Action]

Wow.. This is a lesson for me. Don't trust your sportsbook. I should really check more often.

Today, I had $0.00 in all my accounts. So I funded one of them.

To my surprise, I had less than I should. After looking at the transactions, they graded my Baylor wager as a LOSS, when 83 is over 82.

I am calling it in now to fix it, but I think you need to check every wager grading. This is a very reputable sportsbook mentioned several times a minute in SBR.

I'm sure they'll fix it...at the end of the day, no matter what happens as far as winning or losing, you've had the best day out of all of us by spending a great day with your daughter. That's what it's all about. Good job Dad!

[Trivial]

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks LTA. I'm on it. I usually don't like parlays or teasers (hence why I do not do the Ontario government sponsored gambling on http://proline.olg.ca where you need a minimum of 3 plays on any ticket), but I do like both these.

[Trivial]

With the way my day is going so far, as well as the last three weeks of NCAAF, that's probably a good thing. Still working though...I never give up. I fully believe the breaks will start falling our way...it's just about when? I need them tonight for the rest of these plays. Might add 1x to the Nevada and AZ totals....we'll see. Probably a few more plays as well. Good luck Red...

Last year, I was on a losing streak from hell in NFL. Then playoffs came, and I didn't lose a single bet, including all the props I did on the superbowl (the only game I play props for).

I agree, win streaks come eventually.

[Trivial]

I'm sure they'll fix it...at the end of the day, no matter what happens as far as winning or losing, you've had the best day out of all of us by spending a great day with your daughter. That's what it's all about. Good job Dad!

No question there. My wife is unfortunately quite ill right now on antibiotics. I might have a repeat tomorrow and skip out on the NFL games. I don't have any issue. It feels great after today.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 2x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #10 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

[Trivial]

I think this might be my very, very first Hawaii OVER I am about to lose. I have always done well with Hawaii, and even automatically made it a 2 unit just because of my past history. I am not watching the game, so not sure what is up with the game, but it doesn't look good.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x and over (71) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 2x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #8 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

[Trivial]

Wow LTA. You are sure busy today.

My daughter is in bed now, and I have to say I'm having a hard time deciding whether to go to bed and rest for tomorrow, or watch some games starting now.