LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Glad to see you on sparty! Also on ga tech, duke, ncst, usc, okst, wisky, west mich and my favorite vandy! They give the hogs a serious run today! Bol boys, lets make a profit!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I have a pretty strong lean on the under in UAB/Marshall, but I'm going to puss out and not take it. When two crap teams play, a lot of unexpected things happen so it probably makes sense to lay off. I really do like the under though...

[Love The Action]

I think it's pretty safe to say that Cousin's interception at his own 20 yard line and the wide open miss by the MSU tight end for a big play, will come back to bite the Spartans. Let's keep our fingers crossed guys, but the Spartans are not playing well and the all the momentum is with Nebraska right now. We need big play!

[Donnie Brasco]

Sparty in serious trouble!

[Donnie Brasco]

And the 15 yard flag on 3rd down didint help either!

[YOUNGBUCK]

LTA any thoughts heres wat im thinkin

Tulsa
Buffalo
Fla
Illi

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for Lantrip against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Sparty in serious trouble!

They need to attack the middle of the field with Cousins and the WR corp. Nebraska is taking away the outside, with a tough cover 2. The best way to beat the defense is to attack the middle of the field about 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.

[blackeyeshamus]

I think it's pretty safe to say that Cousin's interception at his own 20 yard line and the wide open miss by the MSU tight end for a big play, will come back to bite the Spartans. Let's keep our fingers crossed guys, but the Spartans are not playing well and the all the momentum is with Nebraska right now. We need big play!

finally! solid completion over the middle for a first down @ the 39 yd line! that's right!

[Love The Action]

LTA any thoughts heres wat im thinkin

Tulsa
Buffalo
Fla
Illi

I lean SMU on the ML actually. Probably no play from me though. Sort of like the over as well.

Buffalo looks good.

I expect Georgia to handle an injured and struggling Florida team that will have a rusty Brantley. Georgia should take care of business.

Love the Illini!!! They were my first posted play this week.

GL Buck!

[YOUNGBUCK]

Thanks LTA no play on Tulsa for me got Fla at +3 had to do it

Bol Buddy

[Love The Action]

WTF with that Spartan punter...god he sucks. If you are going to punt from your 45 yard line, you better pin them inside the 20 yard line. A touchback is very poor in that situation.

[Donnie Brasco]

Neutral site for florida game isnt it?

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA no play on Tulsa for me got Fla at +3 had to do it

Bol Buddy

Except for Illinois/Penn St., I still have some work to do on those games so go with your gut. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Neutral site for florida game isnt it?

Yes...force of habit when Florida is supposed to be the home team. My apologies...

[YOUNGBUCK]

Neutral site for florida game isnt it?

Jacksonville... Was thinking 1h Fla bc of 1h suspensions for Georgia but brantley could very well b rusty

[shocktopme]

.

Gonna get on some of those U/O's......How bout them Red Birds my friend......Good luck today bud

[No coincidences]

What do you think of the OKL/KST total LTA? It's dropping for some reason....

[blackeyeshamus]

florida v georgia in jacksonville.
might as well be a home game for both teams!
world's largest outdoor cocktail party at JAX municipal field...
kind of like watching hillbilly second cousins drunk on bourbon
fistfight in the middle of a dirt road. bulldogs roll today.

[Love The Action]

Wow...Cousins got lucky that one wasn't intercepted. Is he on crack today? WTF is he doing?

[Love The Action]

florida v georgia in jacksonville.
might as well be a home game for both teams!
world's largest outdoor cocktail party at JAX municipal field...
kind of like watching hillbilly second cousins drunk on bourbon
fistfight in the middle of a dirt road. bulldogs roll today.

Good one Shamus

[Donnie Brasco]

How did sparty not score there!

[Love The Action]

What do you think of the OKL/KST total LTA? It's dropping for some reason....

I think there's a strong correlation between KSTATE and the under. I'm playing KSU, so I also have a lean to the under. However, I feel KSU is the stronger play because of the uptempo offense of OU. Good luck on whatever you choose.

[Donnie Brasco]

Yes...force of habit when Florida is supposed to be the home team. My apologies...

Wasnt being picky just didnt want to misinform anyone dropping in to view who might be less informed.

[Love The Action]

Wasnt being picky just didnt want to misinform anyone dropping in to view who might be less informed.

Good catch...please always correct anything you may find is wrong by me or anyone else in the thread. We need accuracy above all else. Thanks!

Vandy looking good

[alamo]

Good catch...please always correct anything you may find is wrong by me or anyone else in the thread. We need accuracy above all else. Thanks! Vandy looking good

Are we playing Vandy ?

[Donnie Brasco]

This is as bad as i have seen sparty look!

[Trivial]

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks LTA. I've missed most of these but got on a few that haven't moved a lot. Most of these lines are definitely in your favour this week, makes up for a lot.

Missed the Kent State game, and looking good for you. BOL today and tomorrow in NFL.

[Love The Action]

Are we playing Vandy ?

I'm not playing Vandy, but I believe Donnie has a big play on them...

[Trivial]

Heya LTA. Managed to get only 6 of your plays in today, as I was swimming with my daughter today for a while. It was worth it, let me tell you. A smiling child, is a happy parent.

I'll check back in a while to see if you released anymore for the day. Best of luck.

[Krazymojo]

missed that bowling green play

[Redscot]

Wow, very disappointed in Mich.ST today. I thought they would come out and smash mouth....down 2 scores they still had time to be run heavy....wide outs have been totally taken out of game and the defenses discipline has been really bad. I didn't think we'd see them hungover from the string of big games, but after today's performance seems to be the case.....Nebraska deserves a lot of credit though.

[suicidekings]

I'm not playing Vandy, but I believe Donnie has a big play on them...

Vandy defense plus Jordan Rodgers makes for a team that we can actually bet on. Hoping they hold on to help cover the loss on the Spartans...

[Love The Action]

I really hope Penn State plays a lot of Bolden...the Penn State offense just does not find any rhythm when he plays...interested to see what Paterno ends up doing for the majority of snaps.