LTA's NCAAF Plays

[smflanagan]

They would kick the extra point only if FIU went first. If Troy had the ball first in overtime, then no they would not kick the extra point.

[Love The Action]

They would kick the extra point only if FIU went first. If Troy had the ball first in overtime, then no they would not kick the extra point.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

Wanted +5, but I'll take the +4 and happy to get it. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

[upscope]

They would kick the extra point only if FIU went first. If Troy had the ball first in overtime, then no they would not kick the extra point.

I thought in college they kick the xtra point regardless?? Obv not in pro's but I'm under the impression they kick it in ncaa??

[Dexter]

nice work getting 42....im holding out on hou waiting for < 70.5

[Donnie Brasco]

My model has pitt -7.5 tonight. Advanced stats are close. Dex already mentioned it but i think uconn in a low scoring affair is the play! Good luck!

[mas1E]

I'm new here, but your write-ups seem to be on-point and I like your insights. Do you keep track of your posted record, units won, etc?!

BOL this week and on

[YOUNGBUCK]

Just locked in at 42.5 LTA

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

Wanted +5, but I'll take the +4 and happy to get it. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #6 for total of 2x on Uconn/Pitt under (42) (Locked)

I have a work meeting and really like this play at 42 so I'm locking up my second unit now and not worry where the line goes. Good luck tonight.

[Pick'nParlays]

LTA,

Think this total will go up before gametime 42.5?

[Trivial]

Added 1x to Play #6 for total of 2x on Uconn/Pitt under (42) (Locked)

I have a work meeting and really like this play at 42 so I'm locking up my second unit now and not worry where the line goes. Good luck tonight.

Thanks LTA. I was going to skip this play and focus on the baseball game that gave us great value, but with getting ripped off and wagers cancelled, I am all over this play now.

BOL.

[Love The Action]

LTA,

Think this total will go up before gametime 42.5?

I didn't think so, but it just hit 43...not good.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Wat side u like if u had to

[hangtime]

LTA, im fairly new to this site, though i have been lurking around here for the last 3 wks until i decided to join today. I really like your write-ups as i believe they are very informative and quite accurate. You are one of the great cappers on this site. Today though, im on the other side. I parlayed pit-9.5 with the over 41.5. Keep up the great work and good luck today!

[Love The Action]

Wat side u like if u had to

Don't like either side. My model has 10 so I think the total is pretty accurate. Gun to my head, I would lay the points with Pitt because Graham is the best player on the field. When in doubt, always go with the team with the biggest playmaker...

Good luck Buck...fuk the line movement, let's get this one

[Love The Action]

LTA, im fairly new to this site, though i have been lurking around here for the last 3 wks until i decided to join today. I really like your write-ups as i believe they are very informative and quite accurate. You are one of the great cappers on this site. Today though, im on the other side. I parlayed pit-9.5 with the over 41.5. Keep up the great work and good luck today!

Thank you...your words are very humbling...good luck tonight

[ManBearPig]

I took the under on PIT/UCONN at 42 and am rather surprised to see it go to 43. I still like the under, but this does lead me to believe that someone thinks that two bad defensive teams are going to be scoring on each each other at will. I dunno the line is fairly low so if they start scoring TD's then we're trouble, we'll see what happens. I had this at around 25-13 or so, so let's hope it sticks to that number.

[Love The Action]

nice work getting 42....im holding out on hou waiting for < 70.5

I did the same thing on the NE/Pit over in NFL. I waited all day, had a two hour work meeting, and when I got out the line had jumped from 50 to 52. I threw pen against the wall when I read that line and my secretary looked at me like I was nuts.

[Love The Action]

I took the under on PIT/UCONN at 42 and am rather surprised to see it go to 43. I still like the under, but this does lead me to believe that someone thinks that two bad defensive teams are going to be scoring on each each other at will. I dunno the line is fairly low so if they start scoring TD's then we're trouble, we'll see what happens. I had this at around 25-13 or so, so let's hope it sticks to that number.

Agreed...it's rare that public money is jumping a total like this before game day in this era of sports investing. Let's just hope it was a dumbass like Floyd Mayweather putting $50K on the over as opposed to someone sharp like BW....good luck MBP. I had 38.5 as a total for this one so we are not too far apart.

[Love The Action]

I'm new here, but your write-ups seem to be on-point and I like your insights. Do you keep track of your posted record, units won, etc?!

BOL this week and on

Welcome...yes, I keep track of record and units in all my threads. In NFL and NCAAF, I recap my records at the end of each week. In NBA and MLB, I recap my record on a daily basis after each games. Good luck to you as well

[YOUNGBUCK]

Don't like either side. My model has 10 so I think the total is pretty accurate. Gun to my head, I would lay the points with Pitt because Graham is the best player on the field. When in doubt, always go with the team with the biggest playmaker...

Good luck Buck...fuk the line movement, let's get this one

Lets do this fam I went 10x!

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. I was going to skip this play and focus on the baseball game that gave us great value, but with getting ripped off and wagers cancelled, I am all over this play now.

BOL.

Yeah, that sucked about the MLB cancellation but I was sort of expecting it...going to reevaluate a few things. I am starting to warming up to making a play for tomorrow. We'll see.

[Love The Action]

OMG, I never wish injury upon anyone, but it looks like Graham may be hurt for Pitt...that would really help our under bet since he is a beast and him breaking off some big runs was my main worry for tonight.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Graham is done for year good for under

[Love The Action]

Argh...horrible tackling by Uconn early...they are not bringing guys down with the initial contact...it's like all the Pitt guys are bouncing off the initial hit for extra yards...fuking WRAP UP!

[YOUNGBUCK]

I feel bad for the kid but kinda funny we posted at same time

[Love The Action]

Graham is done for year good for under

It's not looking good Buck...UCONN is tackling like a bunch of high school girls. Sunseri is running all over the place....

[Love The Action]

I feel bad for the kid but kinda funny we posted at same time

Yeah, I wish him the best...kid is a stud.

[YOUNGBUCK]

36-3 lta

[Love The Action]

Lets do this fam I went 10x!

Holy Shit...10x...wow! Let's get it Buck...early touchdowns don't mean shit. If Pitt can shut Uconn down and Uconn can just wrap up Sunseri on offense, we could still cash this one.... Good luck

[Trivial]

It's not looking good Buck...UCONN is tackling like a bunch of high school girls. Sunseri is running all over the place....

Definitely need some defense or this is going to be like NO/INDY game a few nights ago.

[Love The Action]

36-3 lta

[Love The Action]

Definitely need some defense or this is going to be like NO/INDY game a few nights ago.

I don't think it will get that bad Triv...it's still early and these offenses really suck. Without Graham, Pitt will struggle. UConn will make adjustments to Sunseri's scrambling and employ the use of a spy. I don't suspect that will be a problem going forward. At least it shouldn't be...GL

[YOUNGBUCK]

Holy Shit...10x...wow! Let's get it Buck...early touchdowns don't mean shit. If Pitt can shut Uconn down and Uconn can just wrap up Sunseri on offense, we could still cash this one.... Good luck

Im on Pitt -9.5 6x too so Pitt blowout
is good for me Uconn offense is pathetic not worried...

[alamo]

Im on Pitt -9.5 6x too so Pitt blowout is good for me Uconn offense is pathetic not worried...

Pitts star running back is out for the game. This is going to hurt Pitts chances but will help our under. Hope the kid is ok as he is one of the countrys best