College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester

[mcbaseball10]

mcbaseball look at the wake forest boston college game I know that it is "normal" line movement as it has went down but it went down 4 full points from the opener.
I wonder what that is?
Any one have any ideas.

i do not know about injuries as I have yet to look for the injuries compared to the RLM today. It is just part of the process I know but usually it will not drop that much unless the starting QB is out and a receiver or RB is on the questionable list. Or something along those lines.

Would this suggest that the books are now wanting you stay there as in they had made the wrong line in the first place?

Where did you see this 4 pt movement threeg5?

http://www.****************.com/bettracker.htm

I'm only seeing 1/2 pt movement on this game..(1 pt. movement on sbrodds)

Very few bets out there so the movement is too early to use as an indicator

[JIMBOK]

did you guys look at the under in tonights game ... lines starting to drop now.

[threeg5]

Where did you see this 4 pt movement threeg5?

http://www.****************.com/bettracker.htm

I'm only seeing 1/2 pt movement on this game..(1 pt. movement on sbrodds)

Very few bets out there so the movement is too early to use as an indicator

[mcbaseball10]

Thanks for the graphic, John Madden lol! Guess I missed that on SBRodds

bettracker still only showing 1/2 point movement

I would tend to think the books realized they set the line wrong after getting feedback from their "people" early on..From what I understand they will throw these lines to a select group and make the neccessary adjustments before making available to all. Maybe that's why bettracker showing a different opening number.

[threeg5]

No problem so its just a bleepup that they found maybe

[MistaCrowley]

Does this apply to NFL too??? Jacksonville and TB seem to fall into this same scenario in NFL this week

[Micturition Man]

The book is looking to get even (money) action on both sides of a game. The theory is the big money (sharps) are moving the line when for example 80% of the public (squares) is not enough to keep the line moving in the direction it should..

Yeah I get this, my question is why should these bets be profitable after the sharp money has moved the lines?

It seems like you guys are trying to hit the new lines, not the old ones before they become worse.

On SportsInsights they cover RLMs under the name "smart money plays" but those plays are based on catching the line before it has moved.

Just to be clear what I am saying is if 80% of the betting is on a -7, but the -7 moves to -6, why should the +6 still be significantly +EV (laying full vig anyway)?

I understand of course that the +7 should be a very good play now if you can still find it.

[spongerat]

because you are on the same side as the big money as opposed to being on the square side. how can you catch a RLM before it happens? The only way to do that is to be in contact with a whale right before he bets

[Micturition Man]

because you are on the same side as the big money as opposed to being on the square side. how can you catch a RLM before it happens? The only way to do that is to be in contact with a whale right before he bets

Same way you beat normal steam... you see it happen on some books and then hit anywhere you can before it gets there.

As to your first point, sharps don't take a side, they take a line. Just because the sharps hit +7 doesn't mean +6 is +EV.

If the historical record of RLM bets is based on hitting the new, worse line, and they still cover 56-57% of the time or whatever it is, then my point is just academic. Although I would still like to understand it.

However if the record you guys have been citing is from Sportsinsights, I think that is based on hitting the old, better, line. I could be wrong though.

[PacmanJr_00]

Using SBRLines, these are the RLM leans I see so far:

% Fav Open Current

70.0% Vanderbilt -8 to -7 --------------------------RICE +7
65.0% UNLV -6 to -3.5 -----------------------------WYOMING +3.5
68.0% Georgia -12.5 to -11.5 ---------------------ARIZONA ST +11.5
66.0% California -7 to -5.5 ------------------------OREGON +5.5

Can somebody check to see if they meet the min 10k bet requirement?

80% LSU -14 to -12.5 ------------------Miss. St. +12.5?

I'm seeing even more bets on UNLV, up to 88%, on vegasinsider. Yet, the line remains the same as above.
75% Rutgers -3 to PK ------------------Maryland PK

Oregon also still holding strong.

78% A&M -14.5 to -13.5 --------------- UAB +13.5

[spongerat]

3-1 so far

[threeg5]

Hey guys is there some real RLM on the GIANTS / Tampa Bay game or, am I just imagining that 1 point?
I didnt find an NFL RLM thread so I posted here if there is one then please point me in that direction.

[Biff Webster]

which site tells you the number of bets on a certain game?

[DeluxeLiner]

Hello everybody...looking at this week and trying to scout out some games a couple of days early.

I used sports insights, not sbrodds to get the percentages and line movement

Syracuse +6.5 .5 pt line movement, 10k bets, over 85/15
Maryland +12.5 1 pt line movement, 4k bets, over 80/20
Virginia +13 1 pt line movement, 3.5k bets, 70/30
Boston College +3.5 2 pt line movement, 7.3k bets, 70/30
Buffalo +7.5 1.5 pt line movement, 2.6k bets, 80/20
Ball State +5 2 pt line movement, 2.3k bets, 80/20
Kentucky +15.5 1.5 pt line movement, 8.3k bets, 85/15
Michigan State -3.5 from +1, 8.6k, 70/30 Assumed heavy bets on Michigan State (might be too late now crossed the -3)
UTEP +14.5 1.5 pt line movement, 5.7k bets, 90/10


Note: When a RLM game crosses the significant 7 and 3 it might turn into a no play (edge is decreased)

That is quite a few games for RLM eh...

[PacmanJr_00]

Utah State, Wake Forest, Air Force, New Mexico, Tenn, Cal may also be games to watch. Wake has gone from +1 to -2.5.

[Biff Webster]

Hello everybody...looking at this week and trying to scout out some games a couple of days early.

I used sports insights, not sbrodds to get the percentages and line movement

Syracuse +6.5 .5 pt line movement, 10k bets, over 85/15
Maryland +12.5 1 pt line movement, 4k bets, over 80/20
Virginia +13 1 pt line movement, 3.5k bets, 70/30
Boston College +3.5 2 pt line movement, 7.3k bets, 70/30
Buffalo +7.5 1.5 pt line movement, 2.6k bets, 80/20
Ball State +5 2 pt line movement, 2.3k bets, 80/20
Kentucky +15.5 1.5 pt line movement, 8.3k bets, 85/15
Michigan State -3.5 from +1, 8.6k, 70/30 Assumed heavy bets on Michigan State (might be too late now crossed the -3)
UTEP +14.5 1.5 pt line movement, 5.7k bets, 90/10


Note: When a RLM game crosses the significant 7 and 3 it might turn into a no play (edge is decreased)

That is quite a few games for RLM eh...

When you say crossed 7 and 3 do you mean a team going from +7.5 to +6.5?

[TussAgee11]

Oklahoma has gone from -7 to -7.5, with only 44% going to OK to cover the spread. Someone with better info, please post, my resources are not broad enough in scope.

[jholl]

3-1 so far

its not 3-1 if you apply it to all the games and notcherry pick the ones you want
its more like 50-50 RLM is a MYTH and doesnt work..try it with every game on the board and see

[spongerat]

cherry pick? you mean by not applying it games that are 45% and move against? thats stupid, you should probably go back to begging for touts picks

[PacmanJr_00]

its not 3-1 if you apply it to all the games and notcherry pick the ones you want
its more like 50-50 RLM is a MYTH and doesnt work..try it with every game on the board and see

part of RLM are the filters(i.e. cherry picking) that most apply..without those filters, it isn't RLM

[DeluxeLiner]

When you say crossed 7 and 3 do you mean a team going from +7.5 to +6.5?

For example, the line started as +7.5 and now it's +6.5 RLM
When this happens tread carefully.

On the contrary, let's look at Boston College game

It started as BC +5.5 moved to +3.5 RLM. The difference between 5.5 and 3.5 is almost negligible. You are still covering a loss by 1 fg, and still losing to a loss by 1 td. This makes it okay to pick up BC at +3.5 even though the game moved 2 pts.

[DeluxeLiner]

its not 3-1 if you apply it to all the games and notcherry pick the ones you want
its more like 50-50 RLM is a MYTH and doesnt work..try it with every game on the board and see

RLM is not a "system", which is what seems like you are suggesting. Of course we cherry pick games because of other factors (injuries, homefield, etc). We aren't foolish. RLM also seems to be better than 50/50, it looks like you are just pulling numbers out of your ass.

[spongerat]

i wanted to hit toledo but heavy RLM scared me off it

[DeluxeLiner]

This was a very profitable weekend

[DeluxeLiner]

Hello everybody...looking at this week and trying to scout out some games very early...

I used sbrodds, not sports insights to get the percentages and line movement

1 point of movement, around 65/35, obviously not meeting bet amount qualifications. I am sure sportsinsight will give us more information in a few days to come.

Central Michigan -22.5
Tennessee -2
Wake Forest -11
Air Force +10

[DeluxeLiner]

Virginia -7
Purdue +3.5
Miss St +2.5 (take ML)

[PacmanJr_00]

possible bigxii plays: kstate and texas a&m

[KingKing]

arent there many more RLM's this weekend!"?

[vitalogist]

georgia big time. opened at pk, 66% of the action went on UGA, it went to +2, now is leveling around +1-+1.5

[frpm00]

UCLA +3.5 ( Small ML )
Ohio State -16
Rice +11
Memphis +2 ( Small ML )

[threeg5]

arent there many more RLM's this weekend!"?

Yes there were a ton onthe board but, it depends on which filters you place upon your plays as to what really looked good.
There are some universal rules as in obviously a percentage some say 60/40 some say 70/30
there is also the actually amount of points movement on that line.
and the last is the actual amoutn of bets places upon the teams combined

My thoughts are
somewhere between 60 and 70 depending on the amount of movement and using a minimum of 8k total when you get toward the 70% as the percentage goes down the volume of bets should go up and the point should move .5 for every 1.5-2 percentage points.

now there is few more things that I like to throw in if I think it might be a play
how much has the moneyline moved the spread has something to do with the money or viceversa I dont know what but it does.
also a dog line moving or a fav line moving
if its a dog line moving I look at the injury list
if its a fav line moving I look at strength of the team
if the fav has an injury then it is not a play cause that sometimes can hit you (are there exceptions to this? yes. too many to list)
If the fav is moving and they are clearly the fav as for strength then I look at it a bit mainly are they at home or away?

these are only a few thoughts so
to answer your question yes on the board quick look yeah there are a lot this week but, I think there is only a few plays that are really RLM cause f MONEY.
most have a reason.


3g5

[JIMBOK]

Looks like Tulsa is the play tonight!!

[threeg5]

Looks like Tulsa is the play tonight!!

What makes Tulsa a play by RLM standard?
They opened at -9 they have 67% of the wagers and the line has went to -9.5
So that is going the right way. if it would have went to -8.5 it would be going th wrong way but not a play.

it might have been a play at the time that you posted that, I do not know.
I do know there is a reason for the rule being that you should not play RLM more the 30 minutes out from the game.


3g5

[adistar85]

Open -- % -- PICK -- Current -- Movement
+11.5 36% Hawaii +9.5 ...............2 pts
+18 34% San Diego St +17 ..........1 pt
-3 40% ArizonaSt -6.5 ...............3.5 pts
pk 39% NorthTexas -2 ................2 pts

[PacmanJr_00]

What makes Tulsa a play by RLM standard?
They opened at -9 they have 67% of the wagers and the line has went to -9.5
So that is going the right way. if it would have went to -8.5 it would be going th wrong way but not a play.

it might have been a play at the time that you posted that, I do not know.
I do know there is a reason for the rule being that you should not play RLM more the 30 minutes out from the game.


3g5

you are reading the wrong lines. tulsa isn't the favorite tonight. they are 10 point underdogs with 23% of the vote. some places have moved them down to 9.5 but i don't see any kind of consensus on that. 30000+ bets