SBR's %'s have worked very well for me lately, and I'm not going to pay for another service whose results I cant even verify.
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Any update? So.Miss. went down to -14. Wash. St still t 7 and UAB back to 6.5.Comment -
Arizona looks like a possible playComment -
Vandy -9
No Illinois 11.5
Miami Ohio 16
Washington State 6.0
Virginia 14.0
BOL gentlemen.Comment -
Can someone that knows more about this RLM to look at the West Virgina / Auburn game and tell me it this is clear RLM?
If so then great I get it
If not could you post why not?
ThanksDo what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
As of right now, RLM I see:
Virginia +14 (3:30)
Washington St +5.5 (5:00)
UCF -5 (7:00)
Miami OH +15.5 (7:30)
I do not finalize my picks until gametime is within half an hour. I will post updates on these games closer to the starting time, and keep a look out for others.Comment -
is that central florida @ -5Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
thespread.com has %'s, I don't know if they are accurate. But, it says they get the number from sportsinsights.com and people pay for that service.Comment -
vandy
pittsburgh
maryland
oregon
are these worthy or qualify? do I have something backwards? I am trying to understand this please bare with me. I have tried to just read it and understand it and I think I have it now but, i just need some input as to what I might be doing wrong.
Your Help is AppreciatedDo what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
A couple of years ago when I became interested in RLM, I started at the following websites. The first is an article describing RLM system. The 2nd is a site that applied RLM and just gave you the answer on what to bet on. It is no longer is active but the tables provided on the site along the left hand side are useful in measuring a OK, good, great RLM bet.
Good luck.Comment -
I use www.thespread.com for info:
Vandy - 40% of the bets (pretty high value for RLM - Upper limit) and RLM of only 0.5 since the betting % dropped to 40%. Not a good RLM in my opinion. Pitt/Maryland/Oregon - similarly very weak RLM data (if any)
When looking for RLMs try these steps as a starting point:
1. Look for teams with < 40% of the bets placed on them ( < 30% is better)
2. If the team is getting points (e.g. positive spread), then its an RLM if the spread gets smaller (e.g. goes from +3 to +2 pts)
3. If the team is giving points (e.g. negative spread), then its an RLM if the spread gets more negative (e.g. goes from -3 to -4 pts).
4. Its an OK RLM bet if the line move is greater than or equal to +/- 1.0 pts AND it has < 40% of the bets (< 30% better).
5. Its a good RLM get if the line move is greater than or equal to +/- 1.5 pts AND it has < 30% of the bets.
Other rules can come into play:
- For games with spreads > 15 pts, RLM must be at least 1.5 just to be OK bets
- Must have sufficient number of bets on the game for any of the data to be applied (I like 6000 or higher, preferably 10,000)
Adjust the values in each step to meet your personal preferences. I started with these and have tweaked them some depending upon the game situation (publicity, rivalry, etc...).
I'm open for suggestions on utilizing this system and is why I joined this forum, to collect other's ideas on applying RLM.
Sorry for the long post.
Good luck.Comment -
Im liking these picks in this order.
UNDER in Notre Dame
Miami OH
Pitt
Virgina
Southern Miss
ArizonaComment -
Kansas state starting to show some valueDo what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
I would add Kansas St +11 vs UCLA as a RLM bet tonight. Data: KSU 24% of the bet, ~20k bets, RLM 1.5 pts.
The line started out with KSU + 10.5, moved to +12.5 but recently bumped back to +11 even though throughout the last 6 days the betting remained only around 20-25% for KSU. Looks like smart money action came in today on KSU. If anyone else reads this differently, please reply.
Good Luck.Comment -
Where are you seeing KSU at 24%?Comment -
Here....
If you see something different, please let me know.
Good Luck.Comment -
So are these SportsInsights statistics people keep using for RLMs based on betting the closing line? Or the line immediately after the 1 point move? Or even steamchasing and finding a place to bet the line before it moves?Comment -
Money moves lines not number of bets. What you really need is how the line has moved, % of bets on each team, and % of money on each team."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Ole Miss / South Carolina
8000+ bets, 80/20 action to Ole Miss and line dropped a point from -4.5 to -3.5
S.C. is the play???Comment -
I also found that this week there seem to be a lot of RLM's compared to previous weeks where there were 4 or 5...is this weird?Comment -
Alabama is definetely rlmComment -
So what's the theory behind why these cover say 56-44 after the sharp money has moved the line?
That would seem to imply they are leaving a +EV bet of about 6.9% on the table.
Obviously if there's a reverse line move from -4.5 to -3.5 I see why +4.5 would be great if you could find a stale line.
Is the idea that the sharps have already Kelly bet at the higher EV than what the new line offers?
Or that at this point it's more +EV for them to bet Matchbook on gameday than full vig now?
Or that they are hitting the 6.9% bet but the books are leaving the line where it is in anticipation of late public money coming in on the obvious public side (the side that got 80% of the bets or whatever).Comment -
There is .5 movement on the game tonight but I am not convinced that at this point it is enough to say it is worthy of an RLM play even with 8k bets as stated above.
wyoming
maryland
akron
alabama
oregon
north texas
oregon state (big) movement
rice
purdue (little movement will probably strighten itself out)
all of these have RLM on the line I am not sure of the amount of bets other then the % but if there is only 1000 or so wagers then the 1 and 1.5 point variations really want matter. not saying they arent RLM they just aren't trusting. You have to wait until an hour or so before these games to see the line and watch and not wager until .5 hour at the earliest on them. there have been lines that completely straightened out in the last hour and the books then killed it of course. I have not seen this myself but have heard the stories.
Also on a Side note not RLM related:
I like Houston over Texes Tech
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
I really like S.Carolina and Alabama because of the RLM..The S. Carolina spread is very low to begin with..#4 team in the country only giving 3 pts to a team that barely beat (4pts) unranked NC State and lost by (4pts) to unranked Georgia. The line as gone up to +4..but 73% of the action is on MISS..With all that action, I would expect the line to move to 5 or 6..Also note, I hate betting these ESPN thursday night games..I will put a small wager on SC.
The Alabama game looks ripe for this kind of philosophy..64% of the action is on Arkansas, yet the line has increased 3 pts from 14.5 to 17.5.
Vegas isn't giving away money..I like Bama!Comment -
Using SBRLines, these are the RLM leans I see so far:
% Fav Open Current
70.0% Vanderbilt -8 to -7 --------------------------RICE +7
65.0% UNLV -6 to -3.5 -----------------------------WYOMING +3.5
68.0% Georgia -12.5 to -11.5 ---------------------ARIZONA ST +11.5
66.0% California -7 to -5.5 ------------------------OREGON +5.5
Can somebody check to see if they meet the min 10k bet requirement?Comment -
Using the RICE / UNLV game that although 65% of the wagers coming in is on UNLV and 35% is on RICE the quanity of the wagers within those percentages is lopsided. The 35% of the vote on RICE might = $100k while 65% on _UNLV might = $60k these numbers are not known only the books know these numbers. They have the line move reverse so as to keep it as even on both sides as possible.
Is this the only real factor or is it the only factor most of the time?
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
Even though we don't know what the numbers are we can make an assumption based off the goal of the books. They do not want to gamble on a game, they want their Vig! They do not want to expose themselves to risk so we try to take the information given and make our own assumptions. There are several other factors as each game is mutually exclusive with its own set of circumstances, but we have to look for any advantage we can get. The sharps continue to bet large amounts of money because they feel like they have an edge on a particular game, as outsiders we can try to piggyback off of that. I use it more as an eye opener than anything else to bring me to look deeper into a game. After looking more into those games, I try to see why a line might have moved the "wrong" way. LT Profits is the most knowledgeable on the subject as I never would proclaim to be. If I am off base with any of my views, those with more knowledge feel free to set everybody straight.Comment -
I agree about questioning the S.Carolina pick..I'm betting S.Carolina very small tonight. I think the line is extremely low for a #4 Ranked team playing a 2-1 unranked team who lost its' only game when they actually played a "good" team. But very small.. But if the line drops to 3 again before kickoff..I might lay down a decent size bet.Comment -
mcbaseball look at the wake forest boston college game I know that it is "normal" line movement as it has went down but it went down 4 full points from the opener.
I wonder what that is?
Any one have any ideas.
Arizona / Oregon ST is another play I just seen it is the same way? 4.5 points.
i do not know about injuries as I have yet to look for the injuries compared to the RLM today. It is just part of the process I know but usually it will not drop that much unless the starting QB is out and a receiver or RB is on the questionable list. Or something along those lines.
Would this suggest that the books are now wanting you stay there as in they had made the wrong line in the first place?
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment
