College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester

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  • Rondo09
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-06-09
    • 109

    #141
    SBR's %'s have worked very well for me lately, and I'm not going to pay for another service whose results I cant even verify.
    Comment
    • PacmanJr_00
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-10-09
      • 221

      #142
      Any update? So.Miss. went down to -14. Wash. St still t 7 and UAB back to 6.5.
      Comment
      • CLASSIC ROCK
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 07-23-09
        • 574

        #143
        Arizona looks like a possible play
        Comment
        • FreeFall
          SBR MVP
          • 02-20-08
          • 3365

          #144
          Vandy -9
          No Illinois 11.5
          Miami Ohio 16
          Washington State 6.0
          Virginia 14.0

          BOL gentlemen.
          Comment
          • threeg5
            SBR Sharp
            • 07-18-09
            • 488

            #145
            Can someone that knows more about this RLM to look at the West Virgina / Auburn game and tell me it this is clear RLM?

            If so then great I get it

            If not could you post why not?

            Thanks
            Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
            Comment
            • Rondo09
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-06-09
              • 109

              #146
              As of right now, RLM I see:

              Virginia +14 (3:30)
              Washington St +5.5 (5:00)
              UCF -5 (7:00)
              Miami OH +15.5 (7:30)

              I do not finalize my picks until gametime is within half an hour. I will post updates on these games closer to the starting time, and keep a look out for others.
              Comment
              • Tanko
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-19-09
                • 5143

                #147
                Originally posted by Rondo09
                As of right now, RLM I see:

                Virginia +14 (3:30)
                Washington St +5.5 (5:00)
                UCF -5 (7:00)
                Miami OH +15.5 (7:30)

                I do not finalize my picks until gametime is within half an hour. I will post updates on these games closer to the starting time, and keep a look out for others.
                Thanks Rondo. Thats the ones I see this morning so far.
                Comment
                • threeg5
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 07-18-09
                  • 488

                  #148
                  is that central florida @ -5
                  Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                  Comment
                  • brooks85
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-05-09
                    • 44709

                    #149
                    thespread.com has %'s, I don't know if they are accurate. But, it says they get the number from sportsinsights.com and people pay for that service.
                    Comment
                    • threeg5
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 07-18-09
                      • 488

                      #150
                      vandy
                      pittsburgh
                      maryland
                      oregon

                      are these worthy or qualify? do I have something backwards? I am trying to understand this please bare with me. I have tried to just read it and understand it and I think I have it now but, i just need some input as to what I might be doing wrong.
                      Your Help is Appreciated
                      Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                      Comment
                      • Tanko
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-19-09
                        • 5143

                        #151
                        Originally posted by threeg5
                        vandy
                        pittsburgh
                        maryland
                        oregon

                        are these worthy or qualify? do I have something backwards? I am trying to understand this please bare with me. I have tried to just read it and understand it and I think I have it now but, i just need some input as to what I might be doing wrong.
                        Your Help is Appreciated
                        A couple of years ago when I became interested in RLM, I started at the following websites. The first is an article describing RLM system. The 2nd is a site that applied RLM and just gave you the answer on what to bet on. It is no longer is active but the tables provided on the site along the left hand side are useful in measuring a OK, good, great RLM bet.

                        Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.



                        Good luck.
                        Comment
                        • Tanko
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-19-09
                          • 5143

                          #152
                          Originally posted by threeg5
                          vandy
                          pittsburgh
                          maryland
                          oregon

                          are these worthy or qualify? do I have something backwards? I am trying to understand this please bare with me. I have tried to just read it and understand it and I think I have it now but, i just need some input as to what I might be doing wrong.
                          Your Help is Appreciated
                          I use www.thespread.com for info:
                          Vandy - 40% of the bets (pretty high value for RLM - Upper limit) and RLM of only 0.5 since the betting % dropped to 40%. Not a good RLM in my opinion. Pitt/Maryland/Oregon - similarly very weak RLM data (if any)

                          When looking for RLMs try these steps as a starting point:
                          1. Look for teams with < 40% of the bets placed on them ( < 30% is better)
                          2. If the team is getting points (e.g. positive spread), then its an RLM if the spread gets smaller (e.g. goes from +3 to +2 pts)
                          3. If the team is giving points (e.g. negative spread), then its an RLM if the spread gets more negative (e.g. goes from -3 to -4 pts).
                          4. Its an OK RLM bet if the line move is greater than or equal to +/- 1.0 pts AND it has < 40% of the bets (< 30% better).
                          5. Its a good RLM get if the line move is greater than or equal to +/- 1.5 pts AND it has < 30% of the bets.

                          Other rules can come into play:
                          - For games with spreads > 15 pts, RLM must be at least 1.5 just to be OK bets
                          - Must have sufficient number of bets on the game for any of the data to be applied (I like 6000 or higher, preferably 10,000)

                          Adjust the values in each step to meet your personal preferences. I started with these and have tweaked them some depending upon the game situation (publicity, rivalry, etc...).

                          I'm open for suggestions on utilizing this system and is why I joined this forum, to collect other's ideas on applying RLM.

                          Sorry for the long post.
                          Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • JIMBOK
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-13-09
                            • 48

                            #153
                            Im liking these picks in this order.

                            UNDER in Notre Dame
                            Miami OH
                            Pitt
                            Virgina
                            Southern Miss
                            Arizona
                            Comment
                            • threeg5
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 07-18-09
                              • 488

                              #154
                              Kansas state starting to show some value
                              Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                              Comment
                              • Tanko
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-19-09
                                • 5143

                                #155
                                I would add Kansas St +11 vs UCLA as a RLM bet tonight. Data: KSU 24% of the bet, ~20k bets, RLM 1.5 pts.

                                The line started out with KSU + 10.5, moved to +12.5 but recently bumped back to +11 even though throughout the last 6 days the betting remained only around 20-25% for KSU. Looks like smart money action came in today on KSU. If anyone else reads this differently, please reply.

                                Good Luck.
                                Comment
                                • Rondo09
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 09-06-09
                                  • 109

                                  #156
                                  Where are you seeing KSU at 24%?
                                  Comment
                                  • Tanko
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-19-09
                                    • 5143

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by Rondo09
                                    Where are you seeing KSU at 24%?
                                    Here....
                                    NCAA College Football Public Betting Information from Several Top Online Sports Books. See Who The Public is Betting.


                                    If you see something different, please let me know.

                                    Good Luck.
                                    Comment
                                    • Micturition Man
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 04-14-09
                                      • 10

                                      #158
                                      So are these SportsInsights statistics people keep using for RLMs based on betting the closing line? Or the line immediately after the 1 point move? Or even steamchasing and finding a place to bet the line before it moves?
                                      Comment
                                      • PacmanJr_00
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 09-10-09
                                        • 221

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by Rondo09
                                        As of right now, RLM I see:

                                        Virginia +14 (3:30) W
                                        Washington St +5.5 (5:00) W
                                        UCF -5 (7:00) W
                                        Miami OH +15.5 (7:30) L

                                        I do not finalize my picks until gametime is within half an hour. I will post updates on these games closer to the starting time, and keep a look out for others.
                                        3-1
                                        Comment
                                        • BadBeatBodog
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-05-08
                                          • 1006

                                          #160
                                          Money moves lines not number of bets. What you really need is how the line has moved, % of bets on each team, and % of money on each team.
                                          "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                          "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                          Comment
                                          • 1livecracker
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 07-20-09
                                            • 5

                                            #161
                                            Ole Miss / South Carolina

                                            8000+ bets, 80/20 action to Ole Miss and line dropped a point from -4.5 to -3.5

                                            S.C. is the play???
                                            Comment
                                            • mcbaseball10
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-11-09
                                              • 2866

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by 1livecracker
                                              Ole Miss / South Carolina

                                              8000+ bets, 80/20 action to Ole Miss and line dropped a point from -4.5 to -3.5

                                              S.C. is the play???
                                              Comment
                                              • NYsportsfreak
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 04-06-09
                                                • 510

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                                This line opened at -3....i wrote down all spreads on monday because last week there were disparities on what lines opened at.
                                                Comment
                                                • NYsportsfreak
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 04-06-09
                                                  • 510

                                                  #164
                                                  I also found that this week there seem to be a lot of RLM's compared to previous weeks where there were 4 or 5...is this weird?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • wesp36305
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 09-21-09
                                                    • 12

                                                    #165
                                                    Alabama is definetely rlm
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Micturition Man
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 04-14-09
                                                      • 10

                                                      #166
                                                      So what's the theory behind why these cover say 56-44 after the sharp money has moved the line?

                                                      That would seem to imply they are leaving a +EV bet of about 6.9% on the table.

                                                      Obviously if there's a reverse line move from -4.5 to -3.5 I see why +4.5 would be great if you could find a stale line.

                                                      Is the idea that the sharps have already Kelly bet at the higher EV than what the new line offers?

                                                      Or that at this point it's more +EV for them to bet Matchbook on gameday than full vig now?

                                                      Or that they are hitting the 6.9% bet but the books are leaving the line where it is in anticipation of late public money coming in on the obvious public side (the side that got 80% of the bets or whatever).
                                                      Comment
                                                      • threeg5
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 07-18-09
                                                        • 488

                                                        #167
                                                        There is .5 movement on the game tonight but I am not convinced that at this point it is enough to say it is worthy of an RLM play even with 8k bets as stated above.

                                                        wyoming
                                                        maryland
                                                        akron
                                                        alabama
                                                        oregon
                                                        north texas
                                                        oregon state (big) movement
                                                        rice
                                                        purdue (little movement will probably strighten itself out)

                                                        all of these have RLM on the line I am not sure of the amount of bets other then the % but if there is only 1000 or so wagers then the 1 and 1.5 point variations really want matter. not saying they arent RLM they just aren't trusting. You have to wait until an hour or so before these games to see the line and watch and not wager until .5 hour at the earliest on them. there have been lines that completely straightened out in the last hour and the books then killed it of course. I have not seen this myself but have heard the stories.

                                                        Also on a Side note not RLM related:
                                                        I like Houston over Texes Tech
                                                        Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • angelodebo
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-04-08
                                                          • 671

                                                          #168
                                                          I really like S.Carolina and Alabama because of the RLM..The S. Carolina spread is very low to begin with..#4 team in the country only giving 3 pts to a team that barely beat (4pts) unranked NC State and lost by (4pts) to unranked Georgia. The line as gone up to +4..but 73% of the action is on MISS..With all that action, I would expect the line to move to 5 or 6..Also note, I hate betting these ESPN thursday night games..I will put a small wager on SC.

                                                          The Alabama game looks ripe for this kind of philosophy..64% of the action is on Arkansas, yet the line has increased 3 pts from 14.5 to 17.5.

                                                          Vegas isn't giving away money..I like Bama!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mcbaseball10
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-11-09
                                                            • 2866

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by Micturition Man
                                                            So what's the theory behind why these cover say 56-44 after the sharp money has moved the line?

                                                            That would seem to imply they are leaving a +EV bet of about 6.9% on the table.

                                                            Obviously if there's a reverse line move from -4.5 to -3.5 I see why +4.5 would be great if you could find a stale line.

                                                            Is the idea that the sharps have already Kelly bet at the higher EV than what the new line offers?

                                                            Or that at this point it's more +EV for them to bet Matchbook on gameday than full vig now?

                                                            Or that they are hitting the 6.9% bet but the books are leaving the line where it is in anticipation of late public money coming in on the obvious public side (the side that got 80% of the bets or whatever).
                                                            The book is looking to get even (money) action on both sides of a game. The theory is the big money (sharps) are moving the line when for example 80% of the public (squares) is not enough to keep the line moving in the direction it should..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • adistar85
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 09-04-08
                                                              • 76

                                                              #170
                                                              Using SBRLines, these are the RLM leans I see so far:

                                                              % Fav Open Current

                                                              70.0% Vanderbilt -8 to -7 --------------------------RICE +7
                                                              65.0% UNLV -6 to -3.5 -----------------------------WYOMING +3.5
                                                              68.0% Georgia -12.5 to -11.5 ---------------------ARIZONA ST +11.5
                                                              66.0% California -7 to -5.5 ------------------------OREGON +5.5


                                                              Can somebody check to see if they meet the min 10k bet requirement?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • threeg5
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 07-18-09
                                                                • 488

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                                                The book is looking to get even (money) action on both sides of a game. The theory is the big money (sharps) are moving the line when for example 80% of the public (squares) is not enough to keep the line moving in the direction it should..

                                                                Using the RICE / UNLV game that although 65% of the wagers coming in is on UNLV and 35% is on RICE the quanity of the wagers within those percentages is lopsided. The 35% of the vote on RICE might = $100k while 65% on _UNLV might = $60k these numbers are not known only the books know these numbers. They have the line move reverse so as to keep it as even on both sides as possible.
                                                                Is this the only real factor or is it the only factor most of the time?
                                                                Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mcbaseball10
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-11-09
                                                                  • 2866

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Even though we don't know what the numbers are we can make an assumption based off the goal of the books. They do not want to gamble on a game, they want their Vig! They do not want to expose themselves to risk so we try to take the information given and make our own assumptions. There are several other factors as each game is mutually exclusive with its own set of circumstances, but we have to look for any advantage we can get. The sharps continue to bet large amounts of money because they feel like they have an edge on a particular game, as outsiders we can try to piggyback off of that. I use it more as an eye opener than anything else to bring me to look deeper into a game. After looking more into those games, I try to see why a line might have moved the "wrong" way. LT Profits is the most knowledgeable on the subject as I never would proclaim to be. If I am off base with any of my views, those with more knowledge feel free to set everybody straight.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mcbaseball10
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-11-09
                                                                    • 2866

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                                                    Now the line has moved back to 4.5 after 20,000 bets out there. That's a big jump back to the original opener after dropping to 3.5. Now this is a no play according to RLM and I don't feel so confident anymore about my S Carolina pick
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • angelodebo
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-04-08
                                                                      • 671

                                                                      #174
                                                                      I agree about questioning the S.Carolina pick..I'm betting S.Carolina very small tonight. I think the line is extremely low for a #4 Ranked team playing a 2-1 unranked team who lost its' only game when they actually played a "good" team. But very small.. But if the line drops to 3 again before kickoff..I might lay down a decent size bet.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • threeg5
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 07-18-09
                                                                        • 488

                                                                        #175
                                                                        mcbaseball look at the wake forest boston college game I know that it is "normal" line movement as it has went down but it went down 4 full points from the opener.
                                                                        I wonder what that is?
                                                                        Any one have any ideas.

                                                                        Arizona / Oregon ST is another play I just seen it is the same way? 4.5 points.

                                                                        i do not know about injuries as I have yet to look for the injuries compared to the RLM today. It is just part of the process I know but usually it will not drop that much unless the starting QB is out and a receiver or RB is on the questionable list. Or something along those lines.

                                                                        Would this suggest that the books are now wanting you stay there as in they had made the wrong line in the first place?


                                                                        Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!
                                                                        Comment
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