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adding
2* Alabama -10 (-120)
CFB Week Fourteen updated card
3* Missouri team total over 36
2* Texas -4' (-107) - WINNER
2* ECU/Marshall over 66 (-107) - WINNER
2* Teaser: Iowa +8'/Fresno State -1' (-105) - LOSER
2* FlIU/FAU over 44 (-107) - LOSER
2* Pittsburgh +3 (-115) LOSER
2* Kansas State -17' (-105)
2* North Carolina -5 (-105)
2* Alabama -10 (-120)
2* Clemson/South Carolina over 58 (-107)
1* Ole Miss/Mississippi State under 53 - WINNER
1* Bowling Green -2' (-115) - WINNER
1* Alabama -12' (+117)
That'll do it. BOL to all today. Cracking my first beer and heading to buddy's to watch Bucks-UM. Go Bucks!Comment -
In honor of the last full day of regular season CFB, today's picks come with write-ups:
3* Missouri team total over 36 - 7:45 EST Saturday. The reason that Johnny Manziel is so preternaturally confident is that he practices against the worst defense in the nation all week long.
2* Kansas State -17.5 (-105) - Noon EST Saturday. Bill Snyder is 15-1 SU/ATS vs rival Kansas. Nobody butters his bread like Bill Snyder.
2* North Carolina -5 (-105) - Noon EST Saturday. UNC plays with revenge vs rival Duke after losing to them for the first time in nine meetings last season in Durham. Duke started slowly last week before righting the ship to beat moribund Wake. Now, this week, 9-2 and ranked Duke visits 6-5 UNC and is an underdog by more than a field goal? Two units of Heels, please.
2* Alabama -10 (-120) - 3:30 EST Saturday. Nick Marshall is a fine quarterback, but he doesn't throw well enough to threaten the Bama defense and back them away from the line enough for Gus Malzahn's zone-read offense to work its magic. Nick Saban eats one-dimensional offenses for breakfast, often chasing them with one of his patented Little Debbie oatmeal creme pies.
2* Clemson/South Carolina over 58 (-105) - 8:00 EST Saturday. The Over is 20-8 in South Carolina's last 28 home games against opponents with a winning record. The reason is that Spurrier puts his foot on the gas at home against good teams. Clemson is most certainly that, and although the last three meetings between these two rivals have finished under thanks to Clemson scoring only 37 points combined in the three games, there is no way that JaDaveon Clowney, the Ole Ball Coach or anyone else holds Tajh Boyd and this Clemson offense under 13 points.Comment -
Like them all except North Carolina Biff. Seems like Duke has Devine intervention this season. But if that's the only one I lose today, I will be happy! Good luck today friend.Comment -
Like over from every angle in that one. Even if i keep the number of plays artificially low (65 UNM, 70 Boise), still get around 70 (76-78 if i don't). Also worth noting that model tends not to favor scoring between teams with relatively low SOS, and both UNM and Boise are low there (esp UNM). So, even when i try to talk myself out of over, i cannot. Gonna wait just because game is tonight and i want to take off and be done capping for now, but total is rising. I can't talk you out of any part of over there.Comment -
i think WVU gets 33-34 points there, so lean over. although model likes over for game, i'm not crazy about it because i don't think you can trust Clones. so, i agree that WVU TT over is way to go if you think there are points in this game. all things considered, like over of some fashion in Boise better. BOL whatever you decide pal.Comment -
biff what do you have for colorado/utah with a TOTAL of 56.. colorado has such an awful D they could give up 40 easy to anyone...Comment -
CFB Week Fourteen final card
3* Missouri team total over 36 - LOSER
2* Texas -4' (-107) - WINNER
2* ECU/Marshall over 66 (-107) - WINNER
2* Teaser: Iowa +8'/Fresno State -1' (-105) - LOSER
2* FlIU/FAU over 44 (-107) - LOSER
2* Pittsburgh +3 (-115) LOSER
2* Kansas State -17' (-105) - WINNER
2* North Carolina -5 (-105) - LOSER
2* Alabama -10 (-120) - LOSER
2* Clemson/South Carolina over 58 (-107) - LOSER
1* Ole Miss/Mississippi State under 53 - WINNER
1* Bowling Green -2' (-115) - WINNER
1* Alabama -12' (+117) - LOSER
5-8 -9.48u week, 1-5 -8.94u Saturday
60-67 -24.31u CFB YTD
Just threw up in my mouth.Comment -
There is a silver lining: I won the confidence points side in my big pool going away thanks to everyone else doing about as poorly as i did this week. So, that's a few dimes to kill the pain from my horrific regular record.
Also, Bama failing to cover sucked, but if they were going to blow it, at least they blew it all the way.
Sweet vindication for the BCS system. Every year, people start screaming like a bunch of pansy hairdressers when there are a half dozen unbeaten teams in late October. "If we only had a playoff now," they whine. Then, every year, November comes along and it all essentially works itself out. Big story arc, big payoff. It reminds me of people who check out The Wire for a couple of episodes and quit watching it because it's "too slow." People who say that, and people who clamor for a big CFB playoff, generally strike me as the ones who are "too slow." Other than March Madness, there is not a single period of time in a single sport that is as interesting as college football in late November/early December.Comment -
I think that Sparty is going to give OSU real trouble in Indy next Saturday. Love Buckeyes but I do not think that they are national title material. My stance all along has been that I feared what Bama would do to OSU, was happy with Bama-Noles national title, but that's all changed now. The best team in the nation in my opinion (Bama) just essentially played themselves out of the chance to play for the title. So, the best team in the nation will NOT be playing for the title, which seems incredibly just given the circumstances even given that i'm something of a Saban apologist. Bama LOST it's chance, and by virtue of when they did it (they don't get to play again), and given that there will likely be at least one undefeated team (Noles).
I think that OSU can compete with FSU, but i don't think that i can say with a straight face that OSU is better than Auburn or Missou, though couldn't say that about OSU vs Bama either. The bar has been moved after Auburn's upset yesterday. The four teams from which the final two will come (FSU, OSU, Auburn, Missou) all arguably aren't as good as Bama, but it's absolutely just that they should make up the final four contenders for the title.
Just an unreal turn of events.Comment -
Projected scores for the three biggest games this weekend:
Missou, 35-31
Stanford, 34-26
Buckeyes, 28-20
early leans
Louisville/Cincinnati under 51
Marshall -4'
Missou +2
Missou/Auburn over 58
Stanford +3
Stanford/Arizona State over 56
OSU ML or in teaserComment -
Ended up laying off the New Mexico St & WVU over team totals last week. Big mistake as both went over. Need to follow my gut more often. Hard lean to Mizzou over team total and seeing your projection makes me like it even more. Would love for the total to hold at 58 so I get Mizzou team total of 27.5/28. However have a feeling it gets bet up before my local releases team totals.
Like the Ville tomorrow. Better D, better QB & Bearcats love turning the ball over. L3 games Bearcats have 8 turnovers. L8 games Cards +8 TO margin / Bearcats -1 TO margin.
Hard to go against Jordan Lynch. He just finds a way. Plus a ton of experience on that team which should help in this game. BCS bid on the line. But BG is good enough on both sides to make this a ball game and could even pull the upset. It's BG or nothing but to close to call.
BOL and good luck to your Buckeyes.Comment -
CFB Week Fifteen (Thursday)
1* Louisville/Cincinnati first half under 24'
1* Louisville/Cincinnati under 49 (-105)Comment -
Definitely considering Missou TT over as well as Missou/Auburn game over.
I lean Bearcats tonight but like the under much better. Wish I'd bet it earlier but I'll just tell myself that this allowed me more clarity as to bad weather or something. Was bummed i missed 50'/51, but glad to see it steam down across the board.
Lean NIU Friday but don't think that I'll play it. When i look at the card, i see playing Marshall, Missou TT/game over, Stanford and OSU
Thanks for the well wishes on the Bucks. I know that a lot of people hate OSU, but I'm a Cleveland sports fan, so I'm thrilled to get to wear the black hat for a little while. So stoked for OSU/Sparty game. My in-laws and some other family are going to Indy for the game.. Buckeyes don't deserve this chance, but that happens plenty and I'd love to see them take advantage of it. While OSU defense is sketchy, I think that's a lot more likely to be obvious against the likes of Jameis Winston or James Franklin than Connor Cook.Comment -
CFB Week Fifteen updated card
1* Louisville/Cincinnati first half under 24' - WINNER
1* Louisville/Cincinnati under 49 (-105) - LOSER
1-1 -0.05uComment -
Haha! You know that I have ton of respect for Sparty in both hoops and in football. I honestly think that OSU will win by 7-10, but I don't think that I'll be betting it (ML two-teamer with Marshall or Okie State could be good, though). I would be ecstatic with a one-point win, obviously. I don't think that Sparty's offense will do enough damage to OSU's shaky defense to carry the day, but I've been wrong before. In fact, I'm wrong pretty much any day that I place a wager these days....
BOL to your Spartans tomorrow, HW. I'm pretty much counting the minutes until kickoff now.Comment -
id love to root for osu but if they lose and mizzou wins doesnt mizzou get to play fsu? never thought id say that shit.. or better yet fsu loses to duke so mizzou can beat buckeyes! lol....Comment -
I think that's pretty much how it goes, Banker.
I know both OSU and MSU pretty well. I don't think MSU will win, especially given the motivation for the game has changed dramatically (MSU in the Rose win or lose unless they get blown out; OSU wins and it's suddenly playing for a national title). MSU's D is good, but let's face it, Big Ten is very pedestrian this year and not many mobile QB's in the league (which has been a bugaboo for MSU in the past). Miller hurt MSU with his legs last season. If I had to bet, I'd say they're going to try and contain his running and make him beat them through the air -- which he's now more than capable of (compared to two years ago and even last year). Also, Hyde and Miller are both very physical runners. That could wear on MSU as the game progresses.
I like the Langford kid for MSU -- a no-frills back who gets the tough yards. Cook is showing progress, but he's going to have to play the game of his life, which is a lot to ask of a redshirt soph. in his first year as a starter. I'd want to go into a game of this magnitude with an experienced QB.
I've been wrong before, but I think OSU has a better chance of covering than MSU does of winning SU. We'll see what happens. If you have a good D and good special teams you're never out of it, and MSU has both. They better not fall behind quickly, though, which is OSU's hallmark (fast starts). If they can hang around, they might have a chance. If the Buckeyes get up 10-0 or 14-0 right away, it might get ugly.Comment -
i dont think osu loses either, and to be perfectly honest not sure i wanna see mizzou play fsu anyways, pissed it not gonna be bama cause they were the only team i was gonna get + money on the noles and i really wanted that..in all fairness for all the crap osu been getting they the only team outside bama that can prob at least push fsu a little.. fsu d would shut down that sorry aub offense that doesnt know what a forward pass looks like, then they would show them how to pass against that suspect secondary, of coarse that why mizzou is gonna beat aub. maybe mizzou could slow fsu down a little but not sure how many points they could muster on fsu.. with osu at least ya got a coach that knows how to prepare for that gm, a qb that might be able to make some plays on fsu but man winston will bitch slap the osu defense..at least that gm over sounds really good..Comment -
Well-said as usual, NC. OSU defense can be had, but they are most vulnerable against QB who can run and/or really challenge their DBs outside. Cook won't run, and although he's got a good arm, i expect a conservative gameplan from Dantonio that doesn't exactly exploit OSU's DB weaknesses. Jameis Winston, on the other hand, might eat them alive. Strong as the Sparty defense is (and they're not just great for the Big Ten in 2013; they're great period), i don't think that they can keep OSU from scoring 27+, which is more than I think Sparty will score. I don't think I'll be betting OSU ATS, but OSU ML wrapped with Okie State ML or Marshall ML has potential.
BOL this weekend, NC. I know you hate Buckeyes but that's cool. I have a lot of respect for Dantonio and MSU is one of those Big Ten teams to which i've taken a shine because i have in-laws who are big Sparty fans and because i love Izzo. If OSU loses, I'll drink myself clean and tell myself that Noles would eat them alive. Besides, it's not as if you're a UM fan heh heh...Comment -
i like them both..prob mizzou more but only cause those assclowns from aub campaigning to get in ahead of a unbeaten osu like beating mizzou a forgone conclusion, they seem to forget that it took the gayest play ever to beat uga, bama had to do everything in their power to lose, and oh yea they have a qb that cant throw.. i worry a little that mizzou strength on defense is getting after the passer when they playing a team w/o a passer but gotta think they can figure out that penetration should slow down that goofy ass 2013 version of the triple option..didnt like how am was able to run on us but again they were prob more worried about johnny fb where as in this gm no such worries.. 38-28 sounds bout right, dont think aub secondary can handle our big wrs...
osu not losing, again dont even want them too cause im assuming that be the lowest spread for fsu right? i mean fsu would beat aub by 30. mizzou by 17.. osu/fsu give me the over..Comment -
adding
1* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois first half under 29'
CFB Week Fifteen updated card
1* Louisville/Cincinnati 1H under 24' - WINNER
1* Louisville/Cincinnati under 49 (-105) - LOSER
1* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois 1H under 29'Comment -
Biggest concern for Missou as a i see it is what you mentioned - their strength is pass rush, but how important is that vs zone read/jet sweep offense? However, Missou has been solid vs run (3.57 OPP YPC), while Auburn has actually been vulnerable to the run (4.42 OPP YPC) and Missou is no slouch in the run department (5.61 YPC). Auburn also more vulnerable to pass (7.3 OPP YPA vs Missou's 6.4 OPP YPA). My model says Missou 3-4 points better on neutral field and i'd be on them if the over weren't my favorite play this weekend. May consider Missou TT over.Comment -
and totally agree that over is the play for FSU/OSU if that game happens.Comment
