BJPENNs thread

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-29-12, 10:37 AM

I have a 2u play on Ellenberger at -184, I am going to use that to free roll small on Kampmann.
I am very interested in seeing his gameplan for this fight. I think it will be jab and move

**bjpenn85** · 05-29-12, 11:51 AM

Yeah i think so. I also think that kampmann has a better chance to win if the fight goes the distance. Strangely considering ellenbergers quite modest cardio output, 5dimes strongly favour him to win a decision. I dont get that.

**gabe** · 05-29-12, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I didnt talk about the actual outcome when i wrote even, i meant the odds setting, hence the numbers after the word even. Kampmann was round 2.20/ or what you refer to as +120, which is closely to even, agree?

It was a pretty tight decision either way and you may be accurate in your asessment, even though my point is that kampmann is undervalued. His undervalued because he just needs to not get tagged in the early rounds, and from there on and out, the fight in my opinion is a tossup considering ellenbergers cardio.

I agree that the odds value is with Kampmann as Ellenberger is over-valued, but I think the Juggernaut still walks away with it.

**Grabaka** · 05-29-12, 07:05 PM

Ellenburger hits just as hard as Daley IMO...And if he gets top position it could get pretty bloody.
I agree with this being a 5 rounder the Value is not on Jake SU but still dont like Kamp @ +180. This should be a no play for me but already on Ellenburger and Ellenburger ITD.

**fosho14** · 05-30-12, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Ellenburger hits just as hard as Daley IMO...And if he gets top position it could get pretty bloody.
I agree with this being a 5 rounder the Value is not on Jake SU but still dont like Kamp @ +180. This should be a no play for me but already on Ellenburger and Ellenburger ITD.

Ya right now can't decide between Ellenberger ITD or Kampmann SU. what a toss up fight! Maybe the best value is on Kampmann SU, because if Kampann somehow pulls it out again I have no idea by which method it will be.

**The HOFF** · 05-30-12, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

Ya right now can't decide between Ellenberger ITD or Kampmann SU.

I think that's the way to bet it right there. Both of those options at + odds. If Kampmann survives the early onslaught, then Ellenberger will falter late.

**Vitooch** · 05-30-12, 02:26 AM

I would put Kampmann along with Sanchez and Condit as fighters Ellenberger has/will face that are very resilient and difficult to finish. I think Kampmann has the chin and technique to survive Ellenberger's early onslaught. Ellenberger is quite powerful, but for the top tier WW's, they see Ellenberger's inferior technique and suspect cardio as a hole in Ellenberger's game more so than they see Ellenberger's power as a major issue.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 05-30-12, 02:48 AM

Jake will gas so hard by the 3rd round if it goes to the 3rd Kampmann will win by Sub

This has a good chance of being Kampmanns fight he has a solid chin can take huge shots and keep fighting, he took daley's left hook and was still standing. Ellenberger is a beast he's sort of like Dan henderson he comes out really hard in the first 2 rounds then fades in the 3rd and burns out in 5 round fights. I don't think he's ever been in a 5 round fight and with the pace he brings he won't be able to handle it going into the 3rd even. There's no way he wins kampmann by being technical and patient with his striking, that's just not his style.

I'm leaning towards Kampmann

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 03:25 AM

You should!

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 08:43 AM

adding:

1 unit on MCcall inside dist @ 10.16 to win - 9.16 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 08:56 AM

adding:

14,3 units on MCcall @ 2.45 to win - 20,7 units
10.8 units on Jhonsen dec @ 2.34 to win - 14.4 units

**PunisherIND** · 05-30-12, 09:36 AM

Generally you should get better odds if you just play Not mighty mouse itd. I could be wrong though. I haven't done the math and 5dimes is known for having screwy lines.

I agree with the underlying play however. I'll be throwing not mouse itd in a few parlays.

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 11:29 AM

I actually think its the other way around. Mighty Mouse not inside distance is 1.18,
while decision was 2.34 yesterday.

same prop bet, different price.

**PunisherIND** · 05-30-12, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I actually think its the other way around. Mighty Mouse not inside distance is 1.18,
while decision was 2.34 yesterday.

same prop bet, different price.

what i meant was, you would get a better number if you only played Not Mouse ITD @ -545, rather than two separate plays: Creepy SU & Mouse DEC.

your two plays together are the same as Not Mouse ITD. however, at +120 and +125, respectively, you are getting a line of approx. -890 (thanks Nunya), rather than the -545.

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 12:57 PM

1. Maybe im wrong here, but if i play 25 units in total, and win max 10 unit i get 1.41= or -243, not -545 or -890 or whatever. If ****** up my math, feel free to correct me.

2. lets say i have made an error betting two lines instead of one, my restriction at 5dimes means that the lines need to change before i can place a new bet.

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 12:57 PM

adding:

9 units on Charles Oliveira @ 1.67 to win 6 units

**Vaughany** · 05-30-12, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

adding:

9 units on Charles Oliveira @ 1.67 to win 6 units

William Hill? or unibet opener?

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 01:26 PM

william hill, go get it!!

**PunisherIND** · 05-30-12, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

1. Maybe im wrong here, but if i play 25 units in total, and win max 10 unit i get 1.41= or -243, not -545 or -890 or whatever. If ****** up my math, feel free to correct me.

2. lets say i have made an error betting two lines instead of one, my restriction at 5dimes means that the lines need to change before i can place a new bet.

1. but your not factoring in the possibility that johnson wins by decision, in which case you net zero profit.

2. im not saying you should place a new bet, just that you could have gotten a better line. basically letting you know for future reference, you will generally get better odds if you play a single prop (Not Mouse ITD @ -545) rather than two separate props that amount to the single prop (Creepy SU & Mouse by DEC). but again, dont take this as some kind of rule because 5dimes frequently has screwy lines and it may be possible that you're getting better odds by playing the separate props.

**Vaughany** · 05-30-12, 01:38 PM

yeah maxed it earlier...75 units, will probably buy back on it with Brookins at +175 to +200 range hopefully so will have 20 units risk or something on Oliveira at much better odds. I see Oliveira going back to -200 to -230 range and sticking round there

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-12, 01:58 PM

yeah, youre right, i didnt see that mighty mouse not inside distance included him winning a dec, thanks man.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-30-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah maxed it earlier...75 units, will probably buy back on it with Brookins at +175 to +200 range hopefully so will have 20 units risk or something on Oliveira at much better odds. I see Oliveira going back to -200 to -230 range and sticking round there

was thinking about playing aloe vera as well, but having trouble breaking it down with confidence... You or BJ got a breakdown on this one as to why you might favor olivera???

**Vaughany** · 05-30-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

was thinking about playing aloe vera as well, but having trouble breaking it down with confidence... You or BJ got a breakdown on this one as to why you might favor olivera???

My main reasoning is that Brookins has average stand-up and poor defence and if he takes it to the ground I'm not convinced he can repeat what he did to Vagner Rocha, or get the sub which is how he beats most opponents. We haven't seen Brookins face a guy with BJJ off his back like Oliveira has, I think Oliveira is just too slick and will be just as dangerous off his back as he will standing. My main concerns are that Brookins is very durable and could beat Oliveira just on heart and will to win and take over in later rounds.

**fosho14** · 05-30-12, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

My main reasoning is that Brookins has average stand-up and poor defence and if he takes it to the ground I'm not convinced he can repeat what he did to Vagner Rocha, or get the sub which is how he beats most opponents. We haven't seen Brookins face a guy with BJJ off his back like Oliveira has, I think Oliveira is just too slick and will be just as dangerous off his back as he will standing. My main concerns are that Brookins is very durable and could beat Oliveira just on heart and will to win and take over in later rounds.

I agree with that assessment, but probably am even more confident in Charles than V is. I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased guys, HUGE olivera fan over here. I love how he is just as aggressive in any position on the ground as he is with his strikes. Dude has a nasty guard and is super active off his back. Although brookins did impress me in has last bout, it wasn't anything to go crazy over as I don't think very highly of rocha. I think olivera poses threats everywhere, where as brookins is very one dimensional, and even if he gets the fight to that one dimension, it's not gonna be easy for him

**Educ8d Degener8** · 05-30-12, 09:11 PM

I had Brookins over Vagner, but that was like betting on a solid piece of fecal matter over diarrhea.

**The HOFF** · 05-30-12, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I had Brookins over Vagner, but that was like betting on a solid piece of fecal matter over diarrhea.

Possibly the best fight break down I have ever read.

**NunyaBidness** · 05-30-12, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I had Brookins over Vagner, but that was like betting on a solid piece of fecal matter over diarrhea.

I think your analysis could use some refinement, please be more specific.

**Vaughany** · 05-31-12, 02:14 AM

hahhaa

**bjpenn85** · 05-31-12, 02:38 AM

Haha

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-12, 05:14 AM

I have decided to arb out of this play as i have a bad feeling. The memory of oliveiras losses against both cerrone and miller lingers.

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-12, 09:50 AM

adding:

10 units on Max Holloway @ 2.0 to win - 10 units

Max holloway vs pat schilling is fight between two fighters we dont know too much about. Both lost handily in their debuts, while holloway showed decent standup skills that included good counters, comboes but a questionable tdd although he initially was successful stopping poirers attempts. However pat showed absolutely nothing in his fight against pineda. He was taken down, and mounted in an instant and although the fight was shorter than a japanese penis, his standup skills looked rudimentary compared to holloway. My major concern with betting Max, is that i know too little about his tdd, however, just based on his fight in the opening round, he looks like the better fighter, and has also fought better competition, while schillings have only won over one single guy with a winning record. Im willing to wager a medium size bet, that holloway keeps this fight standing, and pick schilling apart for three rounds or a KO.

On a sidenote here. Why is ufc picking two fighters with losing record in the ufc on the maincard?

They are obviously showcasing one of the two. I think that person is max holloway.

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-12, 10:42 AM

adding :

10 units on Al, Myles J. @ 1.80 to win - 8units
2 units on C.Saunders @ 3.7 to win back - 6 units

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-12, 10:45 AM

Recap TUF 15 :

10 units on Max Holloway @ 2.0 to win - 10 units
10 units on Al, Myles J. @ 1.80 to win - 8 units
2 units on C.Saunders @ 3.7 to win back - 6 units
5 units on Martin Kampmann @ 2.95 to win - 9.7 units
2,8 units on Jake ellenberger TKO @ 2.7 to win - 5,1 units

**Vaughany** · 06-01-12, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I have decided to arb out of this play as i have a bad feeling. The memory of oliveiras losses against both cerrone and miller lingers.

haha same here. Risk free 6.6 units profit if Oliveira wins

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-12, 11:41 AM

Very nice. I put Oliveira in a very small play just for shits and giggles. I still think he should be fav standing and on the ground. Just seems like he needs a bit more experience.