BJPENNs thread

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 04:29 PM

Recap for ufc on fuel tv 3 :

13 units on Cowboy, Melendez @ 1.68 to win - 9.95 units
2 units on Stephans 1.round to win 12.3 units
1.65 units on Stephans dec @ 6.0 to win - 5.5 units
Most likely buying out of this play buy playing stephans SU as i dont feel like have an edge.
14 units on Cisco Rivera @ 1.59 to win - 8.8 units
10 units on Chang sung Jung @ 3.80 to win - 28 units
14 units on Poirier inside dist @ 1.80 to win - 11 units
9 units Tom Lawler @ 1.49 to win 4.4 units
9 units on Yves Jabouin @ 1.44 to win - 3.96 units

**Vaughany** · 05-15-12, 05:02 PM

Good start bro.

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 05:16 PM

cheers mate!!!

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 05:18 PM

adding :

3 units on Cody M. @ 2.55 to win - 4.65 units to win

I think cody has improved, arbing a little bit here to be safe

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 06:09 PM

glad i did that!

**Vaughany** · 05-15-12, 06:11 PM

yep gd decision

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 06:22 PM

talk about handing out mcodys only shot. Thats the most stupid move i have ever seen. can he have overlooked codys g, if not, he should get the award for the most stupid move 2012 right away. jesus m f christ. what an absolute idiot.

**bjpenn85** · 05-15-12, 09:26 PM

adding :

5 units on Dustin P @ 4.50 dec to win 17 units

**Vaughany** · 05-15-12, 10:12 PM

Great night BJ

**NunyaBidness** · 05-15-12, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Recap for ufc on fuel tv 3 :

13 units on Cowboy, Melendez @ 1.68 to win - 9.95 units
2 units on Stephans 1.round to win 12.3 units
1.65 units on Stephans dec @ 6.0 to win - 5.5 units
Most likely buying out of this play buy playing stephans SU as i dont feel like have an edge.
14 units on Cisco Rivera @ 1.59 to win - 8.8 units
10 units on Chang sung Jung @ 3.80 to win - 28 units
14 units on Poirier inside dist @ 1.80 to win - 11 units
9 units Tom Lawler @ 1.49 to win 4.4 units
9 units on Yves Jabouin @ 1.44 to win - 3.96 units

Congrats

**Educ8d Degener8** · 05-16-12, 01:51 AM

Solid homez.

**bjpenn85** · 05-16-12, 01:44 PM

Cheers. After three lackluster events!!

**bjpenn85** · 05-16-12, 02:05 PM

Summary ufc on fuel tv 3
I unluckily did not play cerrone, and arbed out of the cerrone, melendez play.
14 units on Cisco Rivera @ 1.59 to win - 8.8 units
10 units on Chang sung Jung @ 3.80 to win - 28 units
14 units on Poirier inside dist @ 1.80 to win - 11 units
9 units Tom Lawler @ 1.49 to win 4.4 units
9 units on Yves Jabouin @ 1.44 to win - 3.96 units
5 units on M. Levess @ 2.60 to win - 8 units
5 units on Dustin P @ 4.50 dec to win 17 units
3 units on Cody M. @ 2.55 to win - 4.65 units to win

= 22.81 units +

**bjpenn85** · 05-16-12, 02:06 PM

Spanks buddy!!!

**bjpenn85** · 05-17-12, 09:23 PM

Bellator Falcao vs Spang :

16 units on Karl Amassou @ 1.56 to win - 8.6 units
2.5 units on Andreas Spang @ 3.65 to win - 6.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-18-12, 03:19 AM

After a close look at Rickels, i feel that the correct play is a no play. If Rickels hit 3/+200 again, i will instead make a small play on him.

**bjpenn85** · 05-19-12, 05:15 AM

Bellator Falcao vs Spang

2.5 units on Andreas Spang @ 3.65 to win - 6.6 units

result : -2,5 unit

Overall results on this thread since 14th. mars : 38,19 units +

**bjpenn85** · 05-19-12, 05:21 AM

Adding :

UFC on Fox 4
1.65 unit on Clay Guida @ 4.0 to win - 5 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-20-12, 05:03 AM

Barnett vs Cormier

= 5,4 units +

**bjpenn85** · 05-22-12, 07:10 PM

UFC 146

11 units on Mir/dos not going dist, Belfort/silva not going dist - 7.42 units
8.69 units on Cain V. inside dist @ 1.63 to win - 5.5 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-23-12, 03:19 PM

adding :

3 units on Darren Elkins @ 3.9 to win - 8,7 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-23-12, 03:44 PM

Adding :

7.8 units on J. Volkmann @ 1.63 to win - 4.9 units

- Will be adding more later. I dont think the line will improve. Some technical shit with my book.

**bjpenn85** · 05-24-12, 06:44 AM

Adding:

18 units on J.Volkmann @ 1.57 to win - 10.2 units
3 units Cain V. dec @ 4 to win - 9.9 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-24-12, 02:51 PM

Adding:

6,2 units on Glover T. @ 1.48 to win - 3,1 unit

**bjpenn85** · 05-25-12, 04:09 PM

Adding:

3 units on Cain V. @ 5 to win - 12 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-26-12, 11:13 AM

Recap UFC 146 :

13 unirs on Barboza, Cain V., Dos santos inside dist @ 1.95 to win - 12.9 units
11 units on Mir/dos not going dist, Belfort/silva not going dist - 7.42 units
8.69 units on Cain V. inside dist @ 1.63 to win - 5.5 units
3 units Cain V. dec @ 4 to win - 9.9 units
3 units on Cain V dec @ 5 to win - 12 units
7.8 units on J. Volkmann @ 1.63 to win - 4.9 units
18 units on J.Volkmann @ 1.57 to win - 10.2 units
6,2 units on Glover T. @ 1.48 to win - 3,1 unit
3 units on Darren Elkins @ 3.9 to win - 8,7 units
2.4 units on Glover T., Duange Bang @ 2.9 to win - 4.5 units

**fosho14** · 05-26-12, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Recap UFC 146 :

13 unirs on Barboza, Cain V., Dos santos inside dist @ 1.95 to win - 12.9 units
11 units on Mir/dos not going dist, Belfort/silva not going dist - 7.42 units
8.69 units on Cain V. inside dist @ 1.63 to win - 5.5 units
3 units Cain V. dec @ 4 to win - 9.9 units
3 units on Cain V dec @ 5 to win - 12 units
7.8 units on J. Volkmann @ 1.63 to win - 4.9 units
18 units on J.Volkmann @ 1.57 to win - 10.2 units
6,2 units on Glover T. @ 1.48 to win - 3,1 unit
3 units on Darren Elkins @ 3.9 to win - 8,7 units
2.4 units on Glover T., Duange Bang @ 2.9 to win - 4.5 units

Nice picks. Is your reasoning behind Elkins that he will LnP his way to victory? That's the only way I see him winning but I suppose it's somewhat likely that it could happen and at a nice price. Personally I am pretty confident in Diego to get it done though. GL.

**bjpenn85** · 05-26-12, 11:47 AM

I chose to wager a small play on Elkins because i think he has a legitimate shot to take the fight to a decision and win. If he wins, it will probably be a lay and pray affair, where brandao has gassed out early/midways into the fight. My first thought when i saw this matchup was landslide in favour of brandao, but after breaking it down i feel this matchup is closer than it looks like, although brandao should be the better striker, grappler, faster, and maybe allaround the better fighter, im willing to valueplay elkins. Good luck man!!

**fosho14** · 05-26-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I chose to wager a small play on Elkins because i think he has a legitimate shot to take the fight to a decision and win. If he wins, it will probably be a lay and pray affair, where brandao has gassed out early/midways into the fight. My first thought when i saw this matchup was landslide in favour of brandao, but after breaking it down i feel this matchup is closer than it looks like, although brandao should be the better striker, grappler, faster, and maybe allaround the better fighter, im willing to valueplay elkins. Good luck man!!

Ya nice value, fair enough. Guess we'll soon find out.

**bjpenn85** · 05-28-12, 05:21 AM

UFC 146 results:

= -22.6 units

The inconsistency continues. Huge mistake to go big on Volkmann. Didnt have sass submission available, at any bookies or at the live betting section. At the same time, Volkmann shouldnt have planted his arms on the canvas. Barboza? I would probably do the same bet again.

**bjpenn85** · 05-28-12, 05:31 AM

Tuf 15 finale

15 units on Erik Silva @ 1.71 to win - 10.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-28-12, 06:01 AM

correction:

UFC ON FX 3

15 units on Ian McCall @ 2.45 to win - 21.4 units
15 units on Erik Silva @ 1.71 to win - 10.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-29-12, 08:27 AM

TUF FINALE 15

5 units on Martin Kampmann @ 2.95 to win - 9.7 units
2,8 units on Jake ellenberger TKO @ 2.7 to win - 5,1 units

Kampmann has beat Paulo thiago, Volkmann, jake shields (unofficially), diego sanchez (unofficially), rick story, Thiago alves. With this sick winning streak, kampmann probably should already have fought for the title compared to for instance dan hardy. Somehow, he ends up as an 2 to 1 underdog against jake ellenberger when the fight against alves was pretty much round even 2,2-2.4?

**gabe** · 05-29-12, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

TUF FINALE 15

5 units on Martin Kampmann @ 2.95 to win - 9.7 units
2,8 units on Jake ellenberger TKO @ 2.7 to win - 5,1 units

Kampmann has beat Paulo thiago, Volkmann, jake shields (unofficially), diego sanchez (unofficially), rick story, Thiago alves. With this sick winning streak, kampmann probably should already have fought for the title compared to for instance dan hardy. Somehow, he ends up as an 2 to 1 underdog against jake ellenberger when the fight against alves was pretty much round even 2,2-2.4?

Even? Alves kicked his ass for three rounds then made a rookie mistake.

I'm of the few who believe Sanchez won that fight. Take away how the guys look after the fight and just pay attention to actual shit being done in the fight, you'll see Diego does more. It's more of his fight. He just bruises and cuts too easily. Some people are like that.

**bjpenn85** · 05-29-12, 10:34 AM

I didnt talk about the actual outcome when i wrote even, i meant the odds setting, hence the numbers after the word even. Kampmann was round 2.20/ or what you refer to as +120, which is closely to even, agree?

It was a pretty tight decision either way and you may be accurate in your asessment, even though my point is that kampmann is undervalued. His undervalued because he just needs to not get tagged in the early rounds, and from there on and out, the fight in my opinion is a tossup considering ellenbergers cardio.