Vitooch's Generic MMA Thread

[Hannibal]

Are you 13 year old child? How come you have no money? Most children have more money than you.

With the amount of time you spend researching mma and posting on this forum... you could have made 100 times your bankroll working for minimum wage.

[Grabaka]

Are you 13 year old child? How come you have no money? Most children have more money than you.

With the amount of time you spend researching mma and posting on this forum... you could have made 100 times your bankroll working for minimum wage.

So what are your plays amigo? Dont slack on the handicapping.....you are losing too much time hatin

[Vitooch]

18 years old actually haha. Im a college student so I'm not really in a position to be gambling too much. Just a fun form of recreation. In the summer I will be working and increasing my bankroll.

[Hannibal]

You are filled with grandiose delusions. You are clearly just a child. Private chat because someone is going to steal your thoughts?? Do you really think any opening lines will be swayed by your potential $30 plays??

[Vitooch]

No, but I've heard from many people on this forum that sportsbooks look at MMA capping forums to get a pulse on what to open the line at and who the majority is on. Are you calling the MMA subforum as a whole childish and idiotic because this is a belief a good percentage of posters on this forum would agree on? I certainly don't think my measly bets in particular affect the lines in any way, but many cappers on here are laying down much more significant cash than myself. I don't see why the books wouldn't take a look at this forum. It is just another resource of information to make oddsmakers lines more accurate. I come on here because I enjoy discussing MMA, and MMA handicapping. I never claimed to be a hot shot handicapper, although my picks seem to have been landing recently. Not sure why you are acting like a oyster but I assume you are just trying to pick an online fight. Very mature.

[Hannibal]

If there was a private chat filled with successful bettors that lay down significant cash..... why do you think you would be a part of it?

[Libert1ne]

Haven't you got something better to do with your time Hannibal? Seriously isn't he breaking some rules here?

I think Vitooch is a good poster and has good insight. Haven't seen anything you've offered be useful, so back off.

[Libert1ne]

Also Hannibal, he wasn't talking about being successful making the most cash, he was talking about capping fights well and beating opening odds. So way to miss the point

[NunyaBidness]

Also Hannibal, he wasn't talking about being successful making the most cash, he was talking about capping fights well and beating opening odds. So way to miss the point

Unlike video games, sports betting is scored in dollars.

[Libert1ne]

Easy to say when you have a lot to stake. Nevertheless doesn't mean this guy needs to shit all over his thread for no reason. Troll elsewhere

[NunyaBidness]

Yes, yes, no.

[Vitooch]

If there was a private chat filled with successful bettors that lay down significant cash..... why do you think you would be a part of it?

Because I've proven in my last few events capping that I pick winners and yield profit. Not sure if I can say the same for you

[Hannibal]

I don't think 100+ hrs of effort resulting in $100 earned is called "yielding profit".

[Vitooch]

100hrs of effort? Even if i did spend that long researching, I enjoy the research. I cap MMA because it's fun. Im not here to impress anyone , i enjoy the discussion. Even if I only make $100, what does it matter. Its not a job, its a hobby. Making money is just a bonus

[Hannibal]

Its your hubris that rubs people the wrong way.

[Vitooch]

You're the only person who seems to have a problem with me. Also, I am not displaying hubris. Please give me an example.

[NunyaBidness]

Glad I could teach you all a new word this week.

[Vaughany]

haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Hannibal]

lol i used that word thinking it would be a quick reference to another that had the same feeling

[sideloaded]

Guis Trolling is so 2011.

[fosho14]

He's just another person sharing his opinion. I don't understand the hate? This isn't a chemistry forum where there are specifically defined answers. It's a god dam gambling forum lol, meaning their are often very unexpected results and no one is right or wrong until the event is over. I especially laugh at the people on here who act like their some sort of important executive or guru for what ever reason, cutting down everyone else's comments (often predictions) without ever posting their own. There is a very simple purpose here. You have an assertion about a result that you expect will happen, so you state your pick, and then provide reasons for choosing that pick or reasons why the price is reasonable/unreasonable. Why don't people stick to doing that, rather than waste their own time plus others time in having to read through stupid posts.

[Vitooch]

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No cunty comments below this line

[Vitooch]

Adding Amoussou +190 (Risking 12.50)

[Vitooch]

Fukking disgusted with Jury. Seems like he didn't have a fukkin care in the world before, during, and after the fight. Another night in the green but what a fukkin pathetic way to end it.

[Vaughany]

Fukking disgusted with Jury. Seems like he didn't have a fukkin care in the world before, during, and after the fight. Another night in the green but what a fukkin pathetic way to end it.

As Cruz said, he tends to over-think things and complicate matters...

[Vitooch]

First play for Bellator 64:

Lima +300 (Risking 15 to win 45)

Great opening line. Askren is an excellent wrestler, but extremely one-dimensional. This is a nightmare matchup stylistically for Askren. Lima hits unbelievably hard, and is strong off his back. I think the line for Lima should be around +105, especially in five round fight. Yes, TREMENDOUS value here. I just can't see Askren being able to hold Lima down for 5 rounds. Lima is just too powerful and dangerous on the ground and standing especially. Askren doesn't have the standup to set up his takedowns properly against a strong grappler like Lima. Askren has been handed a few favorable matchups of late but this is certainly not one of them. Lima is a bad ************ who will make a huge statement on Friday that he is a notch above EVERY welterweight in Bellator. He proved it in the way he absolutely smashed the Saunders and Lozano into oblivian in the tournament and will prove it again on Friday

[Vitooch]

Horodecki is the absolute lock of the card. Horodecki has faced and beaten far better competition than Richman has in his short career fighting in the Minnesota circuit against D level fighters. Horodecki is far more athletic, experienced (he has consistently faced B level fighters in the IFL, WEC, and Bellator) and well-rounded. I would love to spend the juice here like I did with Falcao and Saunders, but the line is far too steep . I will probably be forced to parlay Horodecki/Ueda whenever Bookmaker decides to have parlays available for this event.

I really like how Ueda stacks up with Marx stylistically, both guys being grapplers with rudimentary standup, Ueda having the better wrestling and BJJ especially. Ueda doesn't have any punching power or strong wrestling. He has made a career out of dragging opponent's down with trip takedowns and the occasional clinch throw, which is effective, but I see him having serious problems with a strong wrestler that hits hard.However, Marx does not fit the bill, and I am not sure if there is any contestant if the tourney that does. If there isn't such a wrestler, I believe Ueda's BJJ skills alone could win him the tourney. With that being said, I think Ueda's line will improve slightly by fight night (-455 is still a little too high), and hopefully parlays are available by then. I have grown to resent these type of big favorites parlays, for I have found more success in focusing on getting good opening line and making straight plays, but this is one parlay I don't mind making and paying the juice.

What line I am expecting to improve is Rodrigo Lima's. I don't think cappers will be willing to back Lima as the slight favorite against the more tested and experienced Nakamura. I think I will be making a play on Lima even if it doesn't improve, but I am expecting it to. Lima is an incredibly aggressive Brazilian with solid wrestling and top game. Nakamura is a traditional, conservative, patient , technical Asian fighter. I think Lima's aggressiveness will score him more points in the eyes of the judges. Lima has fought nothing but D level competition in his career in the Brazilian circuit, but his natural raw talent, aggression and athleticism is much more appealing than the more technical Nakamura. There's no denying that Nakamura has fought and beaten better level competition than Lima, but Nakamura also has a few suspect losses against fighters with below .500 records. Alot of people favored Jordan Smith over Rickels because of the disparity in level of competition (Rickels fighting Tavares and a few B- to C+ level fighters), but I argued that Rickels was the more skilled and athletic fighter regardless. The same goes for Lima. He may end up being a darkhorse in this tournament.

Sandro/Popo is a tough one to cap. Sandro is deservedly favored, but Popo is one of Bellator's most impressive prospects. I made the mistake of passing on Sandro's opening line at -150, which I now regret. At -210, I will probably stay away, but I am still uncertain. We will see how this line moves by Friday.

Sandro impressed me so much against Roberto Vargas. He has some of the deadliest standup, namely that winging uppercut that he so often crushes people with in the division. Popo is an expert grappler with good takedowns and a strong BJJ top game, but Sandro is no sloutch on the ground either. Sandro knows he made a mistake, leaving himself open for the super accurate Curran to catch him, and seems very determined for a rematch. Popo has a bright future but he is walking into a buzzsaw on Friday.

[NunyaBidness]

Horodecki is the absolute lock of the card.

Whenever I think about betting Horodecki I think about him turning all the way around and running away from Njokuani. And then I think about getting beast-moded by Ryan ******* Schultz. And then I don't bet on him.

[Vitooch]

Hes not facing a fighter anywhere near the caliber of Njokuani. Richman is not very good. A can who built up a good record from fighting D level fighters in the local circuit. Horodecki will win this fight.

[fosho14]

Before even looking at the odds, I might even feel more comfortable getting on Sandro, compared to Horodecki. Then I look at the odds and hordecki's price is twice is bad. I see what Nunyabidness is saying. Just because horodecki's opponent is a chump doesn't make it lock. Horodecki has SO MANY holes in his game. He shouldn't be -455 against anyone. The risk/reward with that bet is terrible! Doesn't seem like a smart play Vitooch.

[fosho14]

even if horodecki wins, it's a very small return.

[Vitooch]

I wont be playing Horodecki straight up. Obvioisly it is way too much juice. I may consider a Ueda/Horodecki parlay or a Horodecki/Sandro parlay if the lines improve

[NunyaBidness]

Throwing it in a parlay doesn't reduce the juice. It's either a good bet or it's not.

Hope it wins for you though.

[Vitooch]

I've come to realize over time that throwing favorites in parlays is not nearly as profitable as making straight up plays with better value. I usually like to pay the juice once in a card if where I think there is value though. I just cant see Horodecki losing after fighting to a draw against Mike Corey, a much more proven Bellator fighter. They are throwing Horodecki a scrub as a filler fight in order to boast his profile for the next Bellator tournament. Horodecki isnt a great fighter. His striking defense is atrocious, but he has the skillset to be c level fighters.

I agree that Horodecki's line is very steep, but Im having a hard time ignoring what i consider a considerable mismatch. Horodecki and Uedas line has improved. And as i expected, Rodrigo Lima's line is moving towards evens. I will be making a play on him but will play the waiting game for now.

[PunisherIND]

Throwing it in a parlay doesn't reduce the juice. It's either a good bet or it's not.

Hope it wins for you though.

this is true, but you can reduce exposure by parlaying two bad bets! im just a sucker for parlays. probably horodecki + chiesa this weekend.